Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

[Ulysses G.]

Actually, most of the money brought in by tourism is NOT reported at all. It is MUCH higher than Thai authorities admit.

[Scott]

Why would the gov't purposely under/over report tourist revenue? How about what some of the other international agencies that report similar figures?

[siam4ever]

The govt consistently over reports tourist arrivals and exagerates income - the real stats are much less.

[Soutpeel]

The govt consistently over reports tourist arrivals and exagerates income - the real stats are much less.

So what/where is the source of the real stats then ?

[siam4ever]

They were stolen from Government House by PAD operatives and are now being held in cave in Southern Thailand protected by ceremonial PAD used feminine napkins hand placed by Sondhi himself.

[Ulysses G.]

Why would the gov't purposely under/over report tourist revenue?

Mostly because they have no Fing clue what tourists spend their money on and don't want to admit that it is mostly ladies of the darkness.

[Soutpeel]

They were stolen from Government House by PAD operatives and are now being held in cave in Southern Thailand protected by ceremonial PAD used feminine napkins hand placed by Sondhi himself.

So what you are saying is you dont know ?

[dumball]

They were stolen from Government House by PAD operatives and are now being held in cave in Southern Thailand protected by ceremonial PAD used feminine napkins hand placed by Sondhi himself.

So what you are saying is you dont know ?

What he is realy saying is "Pass the toilet roll , my ears are leaking "

[Navalator]

The current tourist situation is a double edged sword. Thais who depend upon the tourist trade will suffer, back on the farm or not, as most Thais involved in the tourist trade are supporting families back in the provinces. On the other hand, there will less western derelicts and their insulting habits and condescending arrogance to deal with.

[dumball]

The current tourist situation is a double edged sword. Thais who depend upon the tourist trade will suffer, back on the farm or not, as most Thais involved in the tourist trade are supporting families back in the provinces. On the other hand, there will less western derelicts and their insulting habits and condescending arrogance to deal with.

Do you actually believe half of TV posters are going to leave the country ? 555 LOL

[HankChinasky]

On a more positive note, I think that the current situation is great for peoples like me who have just a few millions baht. The real estate and land rental prices where way over the top these last few years.

Soon I'm sure there will be good business opportunities. Peoples who borrowed money from the bank to invest or build small hotels, guesthouses, restaurants and who were counting on the high season to pay it back, I'm not sure they will survive the massive crisis coming.

In times like these if you have cash and you can afford to wait for the situation to get better, you have all the cards in hands.

You do have a lot in common with Bukowski. Neither one of you has a concience.

Well that's business mate. I'm not responsible for people going bankrupt, so I might as well make the best of it.

Thai people (a minority) screwed themselves up by shutting down the airport at the beginning of what could have been the last good high season for the next few years to come.

That was a really stupid move to make, and I won't pity them for acting like d**kheads.

Some peoples will argue, saying that the airport closure is not the reason for the massive drop in tourists that we are witnessing now...<deleted>.

They screwed up, they will pay the price, that's how it goes.

I feel sad for the majority of them who were taken hostage by that situation, but maybe next time they will react quicker when a group tries to take Suvarnabhumi again.

[Soutpeel]

Do you actually believe half of TV posters are going to leave the country ? 555 LOL

[hudriwudri]

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

take your medicine and go to sleep, after wake up read this (it's in German)

[dumball]

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

take your medicine and go to sleep, after wake up read this (it's in German)

You know my German is not so good any more it has been 50 jahren uber since i lived there , however , i got the general gist(i think) and that is worse than reported in Thailand , over 20 countries suggesting not to visit .

Looking at 2006 pricing cannot compare to what i percieve as 850 euros airfare , please shove it in my ear if i am wrong .

[Johpa]

To add some perspective, I run a small retail operation in the US that has been around for 35 years. Business in my store and in my neighbor's stores has been down most of this year. But this month, the holiday month of December, we are seeing those sales drops double from previous months. The past few months, the only two major retailers seeing gains were Walmart and Costco. This last month it was only Walmart as a majority of people are now buying down in quality to save a bit. The train has left the recession station and is now heading elsewhere down the track to an as yet unnamed station. Having spoken to many of my peers, I know that once we get passed the holiday season we will be seeing large layoffs in both the retail and service sectors of the US economy, and I suspect the same elsewhere. And with the continuing higher unemployment sapping consumer demand, expect to see Asia, including Thailand and the PRC begin to deal with increased civil unrest as the unemployment affects its billions of population

All aspects of the Thai economy are going to be hurting badly, including tourism and exports. And there are fewer farms for the soon to be unemployed to retreat to. And on the farms that still exist one sees fewer folks raising their own chickens and pigs than 20 years ago. A great deal of knowledge related to self-sufficiency has been lost.

So hold onto your seats boys and girls, the roller coaster ride has only just begun.

[Maverell]

Why would the gov't purposely under/over report tourist revenue?

Mostly because they have no Fing clue what tourists spend their money on and don't want to admit that it is mostly ladies of the darkness.

The above is probably one of the most accurate statements in this thread !! I appreciate families spend as well, but I am sure the majority of tourist money comes in with another sort of tourist.

[mommysboy]

Why would the gov't purposely under/over report tourist revenue?

Mostly because they have no Fing clue what tourists spend their money on and don't want to admit that it is mostly ladies of the darkness.

The above is probably one of the most accurate statements in this thread !! I appreciate families spend as well, but I am sure the majority of tourist money comes in with another sort of tourist.

Quite possibly. I know 2 English guys that come out every year and last time they blew 5000 pounds and 3000 respectvely mainy on the nightlife. They can't come next year, one out of spending money, the other with serious debt issues.

That's serious money being spent, possibly more than the average Thai spends in 10 or even 20 years perhaps a lifetime. Remember it's one way money too.

[dumball]

Johpa , funny you should mention self sufficiency in the villages , or rather the lack of , here in a Cambodian village , i have been encouraging my extended family to to become more self sufficient . I have supplied the where withall and they need to work to attain this , they are begining to show the results of their labours with pigs , chickens , a sewing machine , purified water , a deep bore hand water pump , extra rice paddies and a portable water pump to keep the paddies at close to a consistant 2 inches .Food for the pigs is also being grown both on a small property nearby and in the middle of a rice paddy where the rice is too stunted to produce , this being on the property of one brothers wives . On the property where i built a small house , we have , mango/banana/papaya/knok/coconut and are currently expanding this to other fruit trees . The property is not large , so i am going to attempt my grafting taught at school to widen the scope without penalising growth , i tried to purchase a biogas system from a charity org.without success . They were told there is no money other than for emergencies and the fruits of their labour .

[IMA_FARANG]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Quote: Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

GOOD

As I said before on this forum...tourisim is a "honey trap". It seems to be a great solution, but it adds nothing to the real infrastructure of a country and it leaves a local work force dependent on the fickle whim of a foriegn mass of travelers who don't really care about the real economic health of the country they visit. If you don't beleve that, listen to the pathetic defense offered on this forum by the bar boozers who talk about all the "money they put into the Thai economy"...by which they mean what they spent on booze and sex.

Ask the Greeks, the Spainards, etc. I am living in Crete, a good example of what I'm saying. No real industry, just 6 months of tourists and their money to carry the whole island for a year. I know taxi drivers who are work every tourist season and are laid off by the taxi company as soon as the tourists leave.

As for Phuket...it is rediculosly overpriced and over run with foriegners anyhow.

As for exports going down, yes that will happen all over the world. Even China is closing down toy factories, because their orders for toys from the export market are so far down.

So I will say, once again, the real foundation of any economy is it's workers and factories. That even includes the U.S. and the U.K...but the last 30 years everyone seems to have tried to deny that.

Thailand will have a economic decline, but it will live on because of it's workforce and it's farmers. They make real things, that have a real value, not a value in inflated make believe currency units.

Look at Singapore as an example. It has a good non-corrupt government (if you even try to offer money to a cop there you go to jail). It has (and many foriegners miss this point) a mandated government savings program which all workers have to pay into. That gives each Singaporean a gaurenteed savings at retirement. And it also comes with a right to government housing. In 1946, after the end of WWII, Singapore and Thailand were at roughly the same level in quality of life. Why is that different today?

The two reasons I mentioned above are part of the answer.

[0Mix1up]

/\/\ yes get back to work you slaves/\/\

[Master Chief]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Quote: Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

GOOD

As I said before on this forum...tourisim is a "honey trap". It seems to be a great solution, but it adds nothing to the real infrastructure of a country and it leaves a local work force dependent on the fickle whim of a foriegn mass of travelers who don't really care about the real economic health of the country they visit. If you don't beleve that, listen to the pathetic defense offered on this forum by the bar boozers who talk about all the "money they put into the Thai economy"...by which they mean what they spent on booze and sex.

Ask the Greeks, the Spainards, etc. I am living in Crete, a good example of what I'm saying. No real industry, just 6 months of tourists and their money to carry the whole island for a year. I know taxi drivers who are work every tourist season and are laid off by the taxi company as soon as the tourists leave.

As for Phuket...it is rediculosly overpriced and over run with foriegners anyhow.

As for exports going down, yes that will happen all over the world. Even China is closing down toy factories, because their orders for toys from the export market are so far down.

So I will say, once again, the real foundation of any economy is it's workers and factories. That even includes the U.S. and the U.K...but the last 30 years everyone seems to have tried to deny that.

Thailand will have a economic decline, but it will live on because of it's workforce and it's farmers. They make real things, that have a real value, not a value in inflated make believe currency units.

Look at Singapore as an example. It has a good non-corrupt government (if you even try to offer money to a cop there you go to jail). It has (and many foriegners miss this point) a mandated government savings program which all workers have to pay into. That gives each Singaporean a gaurenteed savings at retirement. And it also comes with a right to government housing. In 1946, after the end of WWII, Singapore and Thailand were at roughly the same level in quality of life. Why is that different today?

The two reasons I mentioned above are part of the answer.

I just say bravo, I have been waiting for this to happen for a long time.

Hope that people living on tourism in this country will learn something positive from this, but then again they might not as usual.

Maybe time for all involved for some education in tourism from the government and private companies?

MC

[LaoPo]

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Mobi: The bubble has been in the process of bursting already since the beginning of 2008 !!

Well, I am surprised that NOBODY on this thread has taken the opportunity to study and research the official data a little bit because the facts are out there, open to everybody...

Today, Sunday 14th Dec., after some study and research I wrote in another topic, about tourism to Koh Samui/Phangan/Tao, amongst others, as follows:

""I know it cannot be compared with Samui but the tourist numbers to Pattaya for instance are a real drama.

Pattaya: April>June 2008: (Guest Arrivals at Accommodation Establishments)

Thai: -60,56% or from 466.808/2007 to 184.088 in 2008

Foreigners: -48.46% or from 1.064.427/2007 to 548.651 in 2008

These numbers are shocking and not even part of the 2nd half of 2008; the problem is that the statistics from the new website of the Office of Tourism Development**** are a real pain to ''read'' on their website and published only after some months; TAT's website was much easier although as slow as now.

If one looks at the incoming foreign tourists for October is shows that Suvarnabhumi had almost 100,000 tourists less in 2008 than in 2007; a drop of -11% !

Phuket: April>June 2008: (Guest Arrivals at Accommodation Establishments)

Thai tourists: -23%

Foreigners: -12,7% ""

From: http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Tourist-Arri...41#entry2405241

Let me add as follows:

Pattaya: Jan>March 2008:

GRAND TOTAL Tourism: 2008: 1.042.300 versus 1.570.534 for 2007; a DROP of -33.63%

of which:

Thai: 167.778/2008 versus 221.959/2007; a DROP of -24.41%

Foreigners: 874.522/2008 versus 1.348.575; a DROP of -35.15%

Note: The statistics show an increase in tourism to RAYONG of +58% or 600.000 versus 333.000/2007; if this has anything to do with the drop for Pattaya ? I don't know.

Foreigners to Rayong show a small decrease: 116.000 versus 118.000/2007.

Phuket: Jan>March 2008:

Total tourism dropped with -18.74% or 784.831 versus 965.868 in 2007

Both Thai and Foreign tourism dropped with -19.71% respectively -18.42%

ALL numbers from the website below:

**** http://www.tourism.go.th/index.php?option=...0&Itemid=25

LaoPo

[Jingthing]

Time to tighten the visa policies even more!

[ourmanflint]

The Thai government vastly exagerates its income from tourism as a percentage of the GDP. Much of Thailand's true GDP is unreported, mostly in the agricultural sector. If the true figure was revealed, tourism would be a much smaller percentage.

What a completely ridiculous thing to come up with.

But then this is ThaiVisa

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Johpa , funny you should mention self sufficiency in the villages , or rather the lack of , here in a Cambodian village , i have been encouraging my extended family to to become more self sufficient . I have supplied the where withall and they need to work to attain this , they are begining to show the results of their labours with pigs , chickens , a sewing machine , purified water , a deep bore hand water pump , extra rice paddies and a portable water pump to keep the paddies at close to a consistant 2 inches .Food for the pigs is also being grown both on a small property nearby and in the middle of a rice paddy where the rice is too stunted to produce , this being on the property of one brothers wives . On the property where i built a small house , we have , mango/banana/papaya/knok/coconut and are currently expanding this to other fruit trees . The property is not large , so i am going to attempt my grafting taught at school to widen the scope without penalising growth , i tried to purchase a biogas system from a charity org.without success . They were told there is no money other than for emergencies and the fruits of their labour .

Dumball

If more people would do the same the impact of the crisis would be much less. Good on ya!

Edited December 15, 2008 by BEENTHEREDONETHAT

[imaneggspurt]

Wait and see gentlement, wait and see.

Siam4ever is a partly right.

I've travelled through the heartlands and non-tourist areas of Thailand and really aren't the golden children anymore.

When asked a few thais who work in the hotels and guesthouses what they will do if TSHTF and tourism collapses the answer is simple.

'We go back to the farms.'

Pretty simple really, hard graft for around 200 baht a day pays the rent for the thais and then some.

Thailand may well be set for the fall, but these people will bounce back pretty well, more than say certain European countries alas.

If you have only climbed one rung of the ladder you dont have far to fall,.

[bonobo]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Quote: Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

GOOD

As I said before on this forum...tourisim is a "honey trap". It seems to be a great solution, but it adds nothing to the real infrastructure of a country and it leaves a local work force dependent on the fickle whim of a foriegn mass of travelers who don't really care about the real economic health of the country they visit. If you don't beleve that, listen to the pathetic defense offered on this forum by the bar boozers who talk about all the "money they put into the Thai economy"...by which they mean what they spent on booze and sex.

Ask the Greeks, the Spainards, etc. I am living in Crete, a good example of what I'm saying. No real industry, just 6 months of tourists and their money to carry the whole island for a year. I know taxi drivers who are work every tourist season and are laid off by the taxi company as soon as the tourists leave.

As for Phuket...it is rediculosly overpriced and over run with foriegners anyhow.

As for exports going down, yes that will happen all over the world. Even China is closing down toy factories, because their orders for toys from the export market are so far down.

So I will say, once again, the real foundation of any economy is it's workers and factories. That even includes the U.S. and the U.K...but the last 30 years everyone seems to have tried to deny that.

Thailand will have a economic decline, but it will live on because of it's workforce and it's farmers. They make real things, that have a real value, not a value in inflated make believe currency units.

Look at Singapore as an example. It has a good non-corrupt government (if you even try to offer money to a cop there you go to jail). It has (and many foriegners miss this point) a mandated government savings program which all workers have to pay into. That gives each Singaporean a gaurenteed savings at retirement. And it also comes with a right to government housing. In 1946, after the end of WWII, Singapore and Thailand were at roughly the same level in quality of life. Why is that different today?

The two reasons I mentioned above are part of the answer.

I really can't believe how myopic and "holier-than-thou" many posters here can be.

Tourism is not inherently evil. Even aside from the economic input, it does work to bring understanding and cultural awareness amongst various peoples.

But back to economics, how is working in a hotel somehow worse than working in manufacturing? My own job is in manufacturing here in Thailand, so I am well aware of the benefits in it, but why money brought in by tourism any different? Hawaii does not have a lot of advantages which would bring much manufacturing there, even if the entire population was willing and eager for it. BUt it has lovely beaches and nice weather, so tourism drives that economy. Yes, it is subject to the vagrancies of the tourist trade, but how is that different from the thousands of factory closures in China due to the vagrancies of the international marketplace?

"Make believe currency units?" What do you think all currency is? It is all made up. When my factory ships a container to the RSA, for example, we get a simple wire transfer in US dollars, a piece of paper telling us that for all the work and effort we put into filling that container, we have x-number of dollars that have worth. But what is that worth? It is only worth something because we have all bought into the fiction that some electrons in a bank somewhere are worth something. And hence, because we all believe it, they are.

You are right in that manufacturing is the backbone of the global economy. But to diminish tourism is really silly. A baht earned by giving temple tours buys exactly the same amount of food as a baht earned making car parts.

Edited December 15, 2008 by bonobo

[JR Texas]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Quote: Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

GOOD

As I said before on this forum...tourisim is a "honey trap". It seems to be a great solution, but it adds nothing to the real infrastructure of a country and it leaves a local work force dependent on the fickle whim of a foriegn mass of travelers who don't really care about the real economic health of the country they visit. If you don't beleve that, listen to the pathetic defense offered on this forum by the bar boozers who talk about all the "money they put into the Thai economy"...by which they mean what they spent on booze and sex.

Ask the Greeks, the Spainards, etc. I am living in Crete, a good example of what I'm saying. No real industry, just 6 months of tourists and their money to carry the whole island for a year. I know taxi drivers who are work every tourist season and are laid off by the taxi company as soon as the tourists leave.

As for Phuket...it is rediculosly overpriced and over run with foriegners anyhow.

As for exports going down, yes that will happen all over the world. Even China is closing down toy factories, because their orders for toys from the export market are so far down.

So I will say, once again, the real foundation of any economy is it's workers and factories. That even includes the U.S. and the U.K...but the last 30 years everyone seems to have tried to deny that.

Thailand will have a economic decline, but it will live on because of it's workforce and it's farmers. They make real things, that have a real value, not a value in inflated make believe currency units.

Look at Singapore as an example. It has a good non-corrupt government (if you even try to offer money to a cop there you go to jail). It has (and many foriegners miss this point) a mandated government savings program which all workers have to pay into. That gives each Singaporean a gaurenteed savings at retirement. And it also comes with a right to government housing. In 1946, after the end of WWII, Singapore and Thailand were at roughly the same level in quality of life. Why is that different today?

The two reasons I mentioned above are part of the answer.

I really can't believe how myopic and "holier-than-thou" many posters here can be.

Tourism is not inherently evil. Even aside from the economic input, it does work to bring understanding and cultural awareness amongst various peoples.

But back to economics, how is working in a hotel somehow worse than working in manufacturing? My own job is in manufacturing here in Thailand, so I am well aware of the benefits in it, but why money brought in by tourism any different? Hawaii does not have a lot of advantages which would bring much manufacturing there, even if the entire population was willing and eager for it. BUt it has lovely beaches and nice weather, so tourism drives that economy. Yes, it is subject to the vagrancies of the tourist trade, but how is that different from the thousands of factory closures in China due to the vagrancies of the international marketplace?

"Make believe currency units?" What do you think all currency is? It is all made up. When my factory ships a container to the RSA, for example, we get a simple wire transfer in US dollars, a piece of paper telling us that for all the work and effort we put into filling that container, we have x-number of dollars that have worth. But what is that worth? It is only worth something because we have all bought into the fiction that some electrons in a bank somewhere are worth something. And hence, because we all believe it, they are.

You are right in that manufacturing is the backbone of the global economy. But to diminish tourism is really silly. A baht earned by giving temple tours buys exactly the same amount of food as a baht earned making car parts.

Tourism is clearly down.......you don't need statistics to determine that, but it is always good to confirm a statement with statistical data.

The forces that have led to this downturn were set in motion way back in 1999-2000. You simply cannot base immigration/visa policies on xenophobia and worse and expect nothing negative to happen.

Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It makes me sick what has been happening in this country for almost 9 years now........it is not the same place it was (no place is). I miss the good times.......easy times of the past.........genuine smiles.

Now, as my Thai friends say, everything is about MONEY. Maybe the lack of it will foster an awakening among the majority.

[Colonel_Mustard]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Quote: Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

GOOD

As I said before on this forum...tourisim is a "honey trap". It seems to be a great solution, but it adds nothing to the real infrastructure of a country and it leaves a local work force dependent on the fickle whim of a foriegn mass of travelers who don't really care about the real economic health of the country they visit. If you don't beleve that, listen to the pathetic defense offered on this forum by the bar boozers who talk about all the "money they put into the Thai economy"...by which they mean what they spent on booze and sex.

Ask the Greeks, the Spainards, etc. I am living in Crete, a good example of what I'm saying. No real industry, just 6 months of tourists and their money to carry the whole island for a year. I know taxi drivers who are work every tourist season and are laid off by the taxi company as soon as the tourists leave.

As for Phuket...it is rediculosly overpriced and over run with foriegners anyhow.

As for exports going down, yes that will happen all over the world. Even China is closing down toy factories, because their orders for toys from the export market are so far down.

So I will say, once again, the real foundation of any economy is it's workers and factories. That even includes the U.S. and the U.K...but the last 30 years everyone seems to have tried to deny that.

Thailand will have a economic decline, but it will live on because of it's workforce and it's farmers. They make real things, that have a real value, not a value in inflated make believe currency units.

Look at Singapore as an example. It has a good non-corrupt government (if you even try to offer money to a cop there you go to jail). It has (and many foriegners miss this point) a mandated government savings program which all workers have to pay into. That gives each Singaporean a gaurenteed savings at retirement. And it also comes with a right to government housing. In 1946, after the end of WWII, Singapore and Thailand were at roughly the same level in quality of life. Why is that different today?

The two reasons I mentioned above are part of the answer.

I really can't believe how myopic and "holier-than-thou" many posters here can be.

Tourism is not inherently evil. Even aside from the economic input, it does work to bring understanding and cultural awareness amongst various peoples.

But back to economics, how is working in a hotel somehow worse than working in manufacturing? My own job is in manufacturing here in Thailand, so I am well aware of the benefits in it, but why money brought in by tourism any different? Hawaii does not have a lot of advantages which would bring much manufacturing there, even if the entire population was willing and eager for it. BUt it has lovely beaches and nice weather, so tourism drives that economy. Yes, it is subject to the vagrancies of the tourist trade, but how is that different from the thousands of factory closures in China due to the vagrancies of the international marketplace?

"Make believe currency units?" What do you think all currency is? It is all made up. When my factory ships a container to the RSA, for example, we get a simple wire transfer in US dollars, a piece of paper telling us that for all the work and effort we put into filling that container, we have x-number of dollars that have worth. But what is that worth? It is only worth something because we have all bought into the fiction that some electrons in a bank somewhere are worth something. And hence, because we all believe it, they are.

You are right in that manufacturing is the backbone of the global economy. But to diminish tourism is really silly. A baht earned by giving temple tours buys exactly the same amount of food as a baht earned making car parts.

Spot on.

[suzyQ]

Johpa , funny you should mention self sufficiency in the villages , or rather the lack of , here in a Cambodian village , i have been encouraging my extended family to to become more self sufficient . I have supplied the where withall and they need to work to attain this , they are begining to show the results of their labours with pigs , chickens , a sewing machine , purified water , a deep bore hand water pump , extra rice paddies and a portable water pump to keep the paddies at close to a consistant 2 inches .Food for the pigs is also being grown both on a small property nearby and in the middle of a rice paddy where the rice is too stunted to produce , this being on the property of one brothers wives . On the property where i built a small house , we have , mango/banana/papaya/knok/coconut and are currently expanding this to other fruit trees . The property is not large , so i am going to attempt my grafting taught at school to widen the scope without penalising growth , i tried to purchase a biogas system from a charity org.without success . They were told there is no money other than for emergencies and the fruits of their labour .

souds like these people would rather be thai!