Tourism - The Worst Is Yet To Come

[excaliguy]

As well as their annoying habit of talking up property market, the local press have habitually played down the drop in tourist numbers, quoting figure like a 20% reduction, when anyone can see it is far worse than that.

But browsing through the newspapers over the past few days, I notice that even the press is now predicting a dire 2009.

Some facts recently reported that spring to mind:

Hotel occupancy in December is usually a MINIMUM of 65%. This December it is 10%

Hotel occupancy in Phuket is down by 70%.

Reports from the southern resorts state that the tourist business is in a worse recession than during the aftermath of the Tsunami.

A report from a hotel booking service that all current visitors booked before the airport closures. There have been nil bookings since for the 2009 season.

And on a slightly different tack, today's Business Post ran a story that the country's exports will be hit hard in 2009 by the global recession.

The bubble is about to burst and it could be worse than the last one.

What say you?

Well it can't be that bad, today my mother spent a few hours with booking...

VIE-BKK 2007 she got for 850 Euro now nothing below 950

Hotel (same room) she was 2006 we could negotiate the price down to 100 USD per night is now 300 Euro (no discount possible).

Some hotels give a discount but the price is still higher than 2006.

So my cynic thinking is that they must be almost full......

(on the airplane you can book now while the years before everything was full)

The whole idea must change:

Hotel staff: lovely looking women who can are not allowed to decide anything, English what they pick up from customer, salary 6000 Baht per month. they can't even tell you were the pier is or the skytrain but they try to charge 300 euro per day from the customer.

Hotels are not full and its the Thai way of getting more $$ out of the few tourists that will come.....

[mommysboy]

IMA FARANG. As we've already discussed, exports account for 70%, tourism probably 10%, so we're all aware of the importance of industry for Thailand, which is incidentally in freefall so is it really possible that workers from tourism could be readily absorped in to the factories?. Industry causes problems too, eg, pollution.

[suzyQ]

what does los export besides rice?

[bonobo]

what does los export besides rice?

Textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, leather goods and footwear, computer and components, intergrated circuits, plastic products, toys, electronics and electrical appliances, automobiles, automobile parts, tuna, pineapple, woven polypropylene packaging, blown film packaging, seafood, tapioca, sugar, frozen chicken, cut flowers--to name a few things.

Edited December 15, 2008 by bonobo

[Esper]

"Tourism is clearly down.......you don't need statistics to determine that, but it is always good to confirm a statement with statistical data."

Yet just look at the hotel websites and see how tenaciously they cling onto their high room rates, never mind that their hotels are often half empty or worse

In August (low season) we visited Phuket and stayed at the Nai Yang Beach Resort for $40 including breakfast for 2; we were one of six guests. A week ago we tried to book again; despite vast cancellations due to airport closure in BKK, the rate remained resolutely at $115, even though we said we wanted to stay for a month. We took up rented accommodation instead; and when we went to visit the hotel, they were only 20% occupied and still sticking to their 'high season' rate.

I mean, do they understand the law of supply and demand or not?

Clearly they must have not been reading the news, or else have very deep pockets, because they are building a 30 room annex, to be opened in a few months... is this optimism at its maddest

[Priceless]

"Tourism is clearly down.......you don't need statistics to determine that, but it is always good to confirm a statement with statistical data."

Yet just look at the hotel websites and see how tenaciously they cling onto their high room rates, never mind that their hotels are often half empty or worse

In August (low season) we visited Phuket and stayed at the Nai Yang Beach Resort for $40 including breakfast for 2; we were one of six guests. A week ago we tried to book again; despite vast cancellations due to airport closure in BKK, the rate remained resolutely at $115, even though we said we wanted to stay for a month. We took up rented accommodation instead; and when we went to visit the hotel, they were only 20% occupied and still sticking to their 'high season' rate.

I mean, do they understand the law of supply and demand or not?

Clearly they must have not been reading the news, or else have very deep pockets, because they are building a 30 room annex, to be opened in a few months... is this optimism at its maddest

Yes, the law is in place and understood. The problem is the same as with most other laws here, it is not being enforced...

/ Priceless

[dageshi]

Gents, been in Chiang Mai for a while now, my guesthouse has been full everyday since the start of november, they probably have at a guess 30 odd rooms of various types, I'm paying 300baht with wifi and no aircon. Like I say the vacancies sign goes up in the morning and it's full by evening, every day bar the odd exception.

From this I draw the conclusion that good businesses that offer value for money will continue to do well, but there are an AWFUL lot of "me too" businesses related to tourism which have to go and will go in the next year or two.

You don't need twenty different coffee shops in the same street, the 400 odd guesthouses knocking about in Chiang Mai which offer precisely the same services are going to get whittled down.

In my opinion Thailand would do best on targetting value for money, be damned sure malaysia is going to benefit from the airasia £150 one way from london flight, that is what Thailand should be aiming for now.

[bonobo]

Priceless, from that other thread about avatars, I like your Ragdoll (or is that a Birman?)

Edited December 15, 2008 by bonobo

[Mobi]

If the outbreaks of violence by the red shirts cannot be brought under control very quickly, then the impact on tourism will get progressively worse.

At this moment, the World's media are reporting yet another new PM in Thailand. But in the same news bulletin, they are reporting the new violence that has broken out, and also some background news on previous violent episodes by the PAD etc) - so this will receive world wide publicity, and can only result in a further drop in bookings for 2009.

When I first came to Thailand as a tourist in the early 70's, it was regarded as an adventurous place to go, and there were very few up market hotels and families visiting the country. It was almost exclusively back packers and single young men. After all, Thailand was at war, and the Americans used bases here to bomb Vietnam.

It seems to me that the only short term hope for Thailand to attract back visitors, is to target the "adventurous" low end of the market - back packers and the like, because anyone with a family is going to give this country a wide berth for several years to come.

So TAT should start organising and promoting low air fares,, no frills packages in the cheaper hotels, relax the visa rules, etc. and get the youngsters back here.

By doing this, they will start to re-build confidence in the country as a desirable tourist destination, and eventually the demand will ripple through to the high end tourists.

But all this pre-supposes that the political situation will stabilise, and that the violence is brought to an end.

Lets see.

[mommysboy]

If the outbreaks of violence by the red shirts cannot be brought under control very quickly, then the impact on tourism will get progressively worse.

At this moment, the World's media are reporting yet another new PM in Thailand. But in the same news bulletin, they are reporting the new violence that has broken out, and also some background news on previous violent episodes by the PAD etc) - so this will receive world wide publicity, and can only result in a further drop in bookings for 2009.

When I first came to Thailand as a tourist in the early 70's, it was regarded as an adventurous place to go, and there were very few up market hotels and families visiting the country. It was almost exclusively back packers and single young men. After all, Thailand was at war, and the Americans used bases here to bomb Vietnam.

It seems to me that the only short term hope for Thailand to attract back visitors, is to target the "adventurous" low end of the market - back packers and the like, because anyone with a family is going to give this country a wide berth for several years to come.

So TAT should start organising and promoting low air fares,, no frills packages in the cheaper hotels, relax the visa rules, etc. and get the youngsters back here.

By doing this, they will start to re-build confidence in the country as a desirable tourist destination, and eventually the demand will ripple through to the high end tourists.

But all this pre-supposes that the political situation will stabilise, and that the violence is brought to an end.

Lets see.

Yes Mobi,

But you have good reasoning, common sense and are well motivated. You'd have thought this would apply to the 'great and the good' but does it?

[Joints]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

donno about manchester but the swedes sure keep coming. they are nuts about this country.

[Priceless]

Priceless, from that other thread about avatars, I like your Ragdoll (or is that a Birman?)

She is indeed a seal bicolour Ragdoll by the name of Sushi. (Actually, her name according to the pedigree is very long and fancy but at home she's just Sushi!)

My compliments for recognizing the breed, not many people do, especially here in Thailand.

/ Priceless

[dumball]

suzyQ , what in heavens name makes you think that Cambodian villagers learning how to be self sufficient would even consider being Thai ? For one , if they were Thai they would learn nothing of use to their future or survival simply because Thai have no interest in learning much , a majority comment when giving information is "I KNOW " . Thais were offered help in rice farming because they have the lowest (on average) production per rai in SE Asia , China produces 3 times as much . When offered to be taught organic farming which would improve both quantity and quality , they said no , because they would need to work 9/14 hours more per growing season "Why we do that " look in the mirror suzyQ , you have an inbred nature toward laziness , sooner play and laze around , what do you call it 'Sanook' ?

[HankChinasky]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

donno about manchester but the swedes sure keep coming. they are nuts about this country.

It's estimated that about 100'000 swedes cancelled their holidays to Thailand for this high season due to that airport closure.

I can give you a source later tonight or tomorrow when my swedish friend comes back home.

[HankChinasky]

suzyQ , what in heavens name makes you think that Cambodian villagers learning how to be self sufficient would even consider being Thai ? For one , if they were Thai they would learn nothing of use to their future or survival simply because Thai have no interest in learning much , a majority comment when giving information is "I KNOW " . Thais were offered help in rice farming because they have the lowest (on average) production per rai in SE Asia , China produces 3 times as much . When offered to be taught organic farming which would improve both quantity and quality , they said no , because they would need to work 9/14 hours more per growing season "Why we do that " look in the mirror suzyQ , you have an inbred nature toward laziness , sooner play and laze around , what do you call it 'Sanook' ?

100% correct, you can also apply that to every domain that Thais are involved in, not only farming.

[Shotime]

Is that what sanook means? I was walking today, and a man walked by and said "sanook, nook, nook,..

It is very quiet here in Sukhumvit. 4 elephants in the last half-hour. More pachyderms than tourists.

[dumball]

4 ephelants(LOL) in a half hour , i thought they had banned them (again) in the city after that terrible driving that seriously injured an elephant a while ago .

[Scott]

This is pretty anecdotal, but I have about 8 to 10 people who visit per year from overseas. In spite of knowing the country is basically safe, everyone has written and cancelled for coming for the next year. The single biggest factor for all of them was the airport fiasco. The idea of being stranded in a foreign country--even one you like, really has a negative effect on people.

[ourmanflint]

Tourism is clearly down.......you don't need statistics to determine that, but it is always good to confirm a statement with statistical data.

The forces that have led to this downturn were set in motion way back in 1999-2000. You simply cannot base immigration/visa policies on xenophobia and worse and expect nothing negative to happen.

Thailand has shot itself in the foot. It makes me sick what has been happening in this country for almost 9 years now........it is not the same place it was (no place is). I miss the good times.......easy times of the past.........genuine smiles.

Now, as my Thai friends say, everything is about MONEY. Maybe the lack of it will foster an awakening among the majority.

I think you must have been drinking too many magic milkshakes fella!! Genuine smiles!! You are a crazy man!!

[dumball]

This is pretty anecdotal, but I have about 8 to 10 people who visit per year from overseas. In spite of knowing the country is basically safe, everyone has written and cancelled for coming for the next year. The single biggest factor for all of them was the airport fiasco. The idea of being stranded in a foreign country--even one you like, really has a negative effect on people.

Nah , think you have it wrong this time Scott , F1 fanatic has the problem for a lack of tourism all nicely checked and sorted .You must realise just by reading her comments it is those sleazy , fat , bald headed , tattooed , drunken sex maniacs that are the root cause , taking thier vacations in Thailand at resoundingly beautifull and exotic destinations such as Pataya with all its cultural attraction , and leading those poor , honest , sweet ladies who have inapropriatly wandered unknowingly into a well planned trap , into the depths of depravity . Were it not for the likes of these despicable morons , TAT would be able to attract more of those wonderfully wealthy types to come and discover the delights of temple touring , and leave much of their zillions of dollars behind and thus solve all of the monetary problems bewitching thailand at this present time , caused by those other western twits who do not know how to get their math correct .

Wasup , casn't read er summat ?

[ourmanflint]

This is pretty anecdotal, but I have about 8 to 10 people who visit per year from overseas. In spite of knowing the country is basically safe, everyone has written and cancelled for coming for the next year. The single biggest factor for all of them was the airport fiasco. The idea of being stranded in a foreign country--even one you like, really has a negative effect on people.

Nah , think you have it wrong this time Scott , F1 fanatic has the problem for a lack of tourism all nicely checked and sorted .You must realise just by reading her comments it is those sleazy , fat , bald headed , tattooed , drunken sex maniacs that are the root cause , taking thier vacations in Thailand at resoundingly beautifull and exotic destinations such as Pataya with all its cultural attraction , and leading those poor , honest , sweet ladies who have inapropriatly wandered unknowingly into a well planned trap , into the depths of depravity . Were it not for the likes of these despicable morons , TAT would be able to attract more of those wonderfully wealthy types to come and discover the delights of temple touring , and leave much of their zillions of dollars behind and thus solve all of the monetary problems bewitching thailand at this present time , caused by those other western twits who do not know how to get their math correct .

Wasup , casn't read er summat ?

It's funny because it's true!!

[siam4ever]

Does it get any better than this for those of us who live here? Happy days are here again. Though nothing can make up for all the pain suffered the last 5 years during the influx of foreigners and the trauma that comes with that, it looks like things are getting better and we just might be living in a South-east Asian country again instead of the little Sweden or Manchester that many parts of Thailand were becoming.

donno about manchester but the swedes sure keep coming. they are nuts about this country.

It's estimated that about 100'000 swedes cancelled their holidays to Thailand for this high season due to that airport closure.

I can give you a source later tonight or tomorrow when my swedish friend comes back home.

Thus, the good news keeps pouring in! And it should get even better.

[lannaman]

The sua-dang mob's disgraceful antics outside the parliament yesterday will put yet another nail in the tourism coffin. Don't they know that this will be all over the world's media?

Let us hope that Abhisit's new government will come down hard on this nonsense, and get the LOS's image back to what is should be - A Paradise.

[ThaiPauly]

How do the authorities put a figure on how much tourists spend anyway?

I don't see many receipts being offered.

Do they only count the revenue that is declared by way of receipts?

If they do...then torism affects a lt more people and is worth a lot more money than anyone realises.

I wonder how much tourism revenue goes completely undeclared?

How many jobs will this undeclared revenue affect?

[bonobo]

How do the authorities put a figure on how much tourists spend anyway?

I don't see many receipts being offered.

Do they only count the revenue that is declared by way of receipts?

If they do...then torism affects a lt more people and is worth a lot more money than anyone realises.

I wonder how much tourism revenue goes completely undeclared?

How many jobs will this undeclared revenue affect?

No one knows exactly how much earned through tourism. Determining that would be essentially impossible. What most agencies and governments do, and I am sure Thailand is no different, is take academic, government, and NGO studies to determine the average expenditures made by tourists, then simply factor in the number of tourists coming into the country.

Of course, these numbers can be skewed for political or other reasons. And anti-prostitution NGO, for example, might overstate the amount of money being spent in a country on prostitution. This gives it a better raison d etre. A government, however, might understate the same spending in order to put a better light on its tourism industry.

There is also the problem of determining what type of tourist each incoming guest is. A backpacker may spend less than someone going to a 5-star resort. But when each goes through customs, there are not different types of entries for each one. Both are merely counted as visitors. But changes in the political situation, the situation back in the tourists home countries, air fare--all can affect one demographic much more than another, thereby skewing one demogrpahic to a more prominent or less prominent percentage of the incoming tourists.

Also, many studies tend to ignore national tourists. It is much harder to track citizens from inside one's own country. Hotel occupancy rates and reports can be good indications, but what about day-trippers who drive off to the floating market to see the fireflies or off to Jomtien to spend a day at the beach? How do you accurately track that kind of spending?

Edited December 16, 2008 by bonobo

[keestha]

Impossible to determine even roughly the amount of money tourism injects into the economy. Small Thai controlled guesthouses/restaurants/souvenir shops etc. usually don't file a tax return, and nobody knows how many gold chains in the Bangkok store are bought by tourists.

Seperating Thai Baht being bought by tourists from Thai Baht bought for other purposes would also be a near impossible task.

Don't forget it is not only about money spent directly by tourists, it is also about money invested in building resorts for example.

[bonobo]

Impossible to determine even roughly the amount of money tourism injects into the economy. Small Thai controlled guesthouses/restaurants/souvenir shops etc. usually don't file a tax return, and nobody knows how many gold chains in the Bangkok store are bought by tourists.

Seperating Thai Baht being bought by tourists from Thai Baht bought for other purposes would also be a near impossible task.

Don't forget it is not only about money spent directly by tourists, it is also about money invested in building resorts for example.

Great point about the construction of resorts and hotels.

While the gold chain bought by a tourist is theoretically taken into account by averaging the amounts spent by a smaller sampling of tourists, infrastructure like roads and airports and construction jobs to build them as well as hotels are not put in the tourism catagory. Those jobs fall into the general construction category.

[thaibeachlovers]

Why would the gov't purposely under/over report tourist revenue?

Mostly because they have no Fing clue what tourists spend their money on and don't want to admit that it is mostly ladies of the darkness.

The above is probably one of the most accurate statements in this thread !! I appreciate families spend as well, but I am sure the majority of tourist money comes in with another sort of tourist.

Quite possibly. I know 2 English guys that come out every year and last time they blew 5000 pounds and 3000 respectvely mainy on the nightlife. They can't come next year, one out of spending money, the other with serious debt issues.

That's serious money being spent, possibly more than the average Thai spends in 10 or even 20 years perhaps a lifetime. Remember it's one way money too.

Reminds me of something I read:

I spent most of my money on women, wine and song. The rest I wasted.

[soi4girl]

Johpa , funny you should mention self sufficiency in the villages , or rather the lack of , here in a Cambodian village , i have been encouraging my extended family to to become more self sufficient . I have supplied the where withall and they need to work to attain this , they are begining to show the results of their labours with pigs , chickens , a sewing machine , purified water , a deep bore hand water pump , extra rice paddies and a portable water pump to keep the paddies at close to a consistant 2 inches .Food for the pigs is also being grown both on a small property nearby and in the middle of a rice paddy where the rice is too stunted to produce , this being on the property of one brothers wives . On the property where i built a small house , we have , mango/banana/papaya/knok/coconut and are currently expanding this to other fruit trees . The property is not large , so i am going to attempt my grafting taught at school to widen the scope without penalising growth , i tried to purchase a biogas system from a charity org.without success . They were told there is no money other than for emergencies and the fruits of their labour .

these people sound like they are no better off than when you werent around. they made it this far wo you. you think too highly of yourself. oh lord you built the house. you gave them whatever they have , is that self suffiency?

[bonobo]

Johpa , funny you should mention self sufficiency in the villages , or rather the lack of , here in a Cambodian village , i have been encouraging my extended family to to become more self sufficient . I have supplied the where withall and they need to work to attain this , they are begining to show the results of their labours with pigs , chickens , a sewing machine , purified water , a deep bore hand water pump , extra rice paddies and a portable water pump to keep the paddies at close to a consistant 2 inches .Food for the pigs is also being grown both on a small property nearby and in the middle of a rice paddy where the rice is too stunted to produce , this being on the property of one brothers wives . On the property where i built a small house , we have , mango/banana/papaya/knok/coconut and are currently expanding this to other fruit trees . The property is not large , so i am going to attempt my grafting taught at school to widen the scope without penalising growth , i tried to purchase a biogas system from a charity org.without success . They were told there is no money other than for emergencies and the fruits of their labour .

these people sound like they are no better off than when you werent around. they made it this far wo you. you think too highly of yourself. oh lord you built the house. you gave them whatever they have , is that self suffiency?

Why do you assert that they are no better off? I read nothing in his post to indicate that.

And what is wrong with trying to help people? Isn't that a pillar or most religions? I rather think that is better than hiding out in a house drinking the local equivalent of a six-pack of Singhas every day.

I am sorry, but I think your criticism is offbase.