Thai Economic Crash

[mommysboy]

What a wonderfully fertile mind you have. Would you mind awfully if I use some of your postings on my roses?

Regards.

One more for the black book

[teletiger]

Honda’s India, Thai Car Sales to Exceed Forecast

"Thailand’s economy is “sure” to grow this quarter for the first time in a year as government spending and improving global demand spur the nation’s expansion, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said Oct. 5."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a_v5YdrbIuYY

Regards.

[Naam]

an update please on Thailand's economic crash and of course the crash of the Baht

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

hmmm... 10 months have passed. Baht overpriced? look at THB/USD!

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

i am still learning each and every day. closed are/were only the minds of the doom&gloomers in this thread. first the mouths wide open, now they are in hiding.

[Naam]

Naam I generally agree with your postings but you've overstretched yourself here and deviated from the main point of the posting: is Thailand about to experience a major crash?

YES, it is.

WHEN?

[Abrak]

Actually, slight error there as the election has to be June or before. Oops. It was one small prediction amongst many but as we know you tend to miss the overall picture.

But this thread is really about Thailand, and for me it's about how difficult it is to guage what's happening in the Thai economy. I'd start at a base point of saying Thailand will post -3.2% growth this year, a meagre 1 or 2 % next year, and just 2-3% over several years as news reports indicated.

It doesn't sound like a crash, but it is one, albeit in slow motion.

Why dont you go to the bank of Thailand and look at the figures.

I think you are on a different planet and by the end of this post you will be convinced I am mad.

First of all growth. Q2 was down 4.9% year on year. It grew 2.3% QOQ which equates to 9% growth SAAR. Now 3rd quarter I believe will be down 1% YOY (reported on 22 November). This will equate to 19% growth QOQ SAAR compared to 3.5% in the US. Exports rose around 80% QOQ SAAR. Now it does sound extremely unlikely but a quote above says Korn says 3Q will show growth YOY which would be astounding. The US is expected to show YOY growth next April.

By the way what a lot of people are missing is that the current account will go from 0% of GDP to 9% of GDP so a 3% total GDP decline this year is nearer 9% domestic. They are also missing the bigger picture which is a current account surplus of 9% and a fiscal deficit of 4%. 5% surplus. Compare this to the US and UK which will show economic declines running combined deficits of 15% of GDP.

There is massive pressure on the baht to appreciate. In September alone forex reserves increased US$7bn (inc forwards) and total forex is US$147bn, a higher percentage of GDP than China. BOT is trying very hard to sterilize issuing US$4bn of bonds in September increase its baht debt by 10% in a single month.

It is like 1997 in reverse. Car sales up 20% yoy in September about 15% MOM.

[Abrak]

Actually, slight error there as the election has to be June or before. Oops. It was one small prediction amongst many but as we know you tend to miss the overall picture.

But this thread is really about Thailand, and for me it's about how difficult it is to guage what's happening in the Thai economy. I'd start at a base point of saying Thailand will post -3.2% growth this year, a meagre 1 or 2 % next year, and just 2-3% over several years as news reports indicated.

It doesn't sound like a crash, but it is one, albeit in slow motion.

Why dont you go to the bank of Thailand and look at the figures.

I think you are on a different planet and by the end of this post you will be convinced I am mad.

First of all growth. Q2 was down 4.9% year on year. It grew 2.3% QOQ which equates to 9% growth SAAR. Now 3rd quarter I believe will be down 1% YOY (reported on 22 November). This will equate to 19% growth QOQ SAAR compared to 3.5% in the US. Exports rose around 80% QOQ SAAR. Now it does sound extremely unlikely but a quote above says Korn says 3Q will show growth YOY which would be astounding. The US is expected to show YOY growth next April.

By the way what a lot of people are missing is that the current account will go from 0% of GDP to 9% of GDP so a 3% total GDP decline this year is nearer 9% domestic. They are also missing the bigger picture which is a current account surplus of 9% and a fiscal deficit of 4%. 5% surplus. Compare this to the US and UK which will show economic declines running combined deficits of 15% of GDP.

There is massive pressure on the baht to appreciate. In September alone forex reserves increased US$7bn (inc forwards) and total forex is US$147bn, a higher percentage of GDP than China. BOT is trying very hard to sterilize issuing US$4bn of bonds in September increase its baht debt by 10% in a single month.

It is like 1997 in reverse. Car sales up 20% yoy in September about 15% MOM.

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

Ok I posted twice..... but 1Q 2010 growth will be up at least 8% YOY.

And what do you mean no moneys coming in forex reserves are up at least 8% of GDP in the first 10 months. And if you dont realize what a heroic job the BOT has done to suppress the value of the baht then its a shame. I would have thought that simply put a country running a 9% current account surplus cannot really have an undervalued currency almost by definition.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Abrak

[zzaa09]

This is the time where such self-sufficiency and self-reliancy skills should come to play. Those who play the game, in largess, will suffer the most...

[Naam]

This is the time where such self-sufficiency and self-reliancy skills should come to play. Those who play the game, in largess, will suffer the most...

how does one play the Thai Economic Crash in largess?

[Honolulu]

I don't see the Thai economy crashing. Real estate demand should remain strong. Fewer buyers from the West, but new buyers from the Middle East and China, Australia. Although worldwide deflation is inevitable, it seems to be progressing relatively slowly, thanks to worldwide Govt. stimulus money. Because most real estate transactions in Asia are not as leveraged, contraction will not happen as bad as in other highly leveraged scenarios. I believe Central Bank is more concerned with the value of the Baht as compared to other Asian currencies ( the Yuan), not so much as it compares to the Dollar,or Euro, and rightly so. Eventually, inflation will begin, but will not be too bad, because it is going to happen to the whole world instead of any particular country. Everything is Relative. Same for Thai exports. Fewer to the West and more to the East. The Labor rate here is still competitive to other labor markets, IMO. Future worldwide investment money is on the hunt for quality, and will land wherever that is found, and the only real value I see in LOS is raw land. Money and power is not evaporating, it is just repositioning. The problem for Thailand, in the end , will be it's protectionist attitude, and it's lack of investment in it's own infrastructure and education, which history teaches, will hurt it in the long run as it always has. If not much has chanced, then not much will change. ( Same Same, but Different!) It will remain a footstool. Invest accordingly

[gregb]

Naam I generally agree with your postings but you've overstretched yourself here and deviated from the main point of the posting: is Thailand about to experience a major crash?

YES, it is.

WHEN?

Based on analogy with the collapse of the Roman Empire, it is already happening and will finish its cycle sometime within the next 150 - 200 years. In the meantime, there will be various hardships and partial recoveries, but the average trend will be towards decreasing wealth. There may be some catastrophic events that are visible to participants, of course. You can't predict the date of those events reliably, but you can say with some confidence that they will come. If you throw a pair of dice you can't say with certainty exactly which roll will give you a 7, but you can say with certainty that approximately 17% of them will be.

People who think this crash will be fast and catastrophic don't understand history. It may look fast in an historical context, but to those who will live during the period it just looks like ordinary life. Your best bet is simply to be ready to react and adjust as necessary to changing circumstances. Otherwise, all any of us can do is wait.

The one thing you CAN NOT do, is assume tomorrow will look like today, or that the next decade will look like the last. The entire world has passed from a period of global growth to global contraction. You need to look at historical periods of contraction and collapse now to get a perspective on the future.

The best way to make money during a collapse period? Speculate. Hope you guess right. If you aren't a gambler, as I am not, simply acquire assets of real wealth and hope the universe sees fit to make sure they aren't stolen from your estate before your great grandchildren can appreciate your wisdom.

[Naam]

where's the crash?

[Naam]

anybody seen any crash lately?

[thaihome]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

Yes! Thailand is online for the second wave of destruction. Due to restrictions on lending following the 97 crash they have been spared the first wave. As you correctly deduce - exports will be virtualy wiped out (world shipping rates have been reduced to zero from 200 to 300k per day - nothing is moving); this years tourism is f**ked (free visas and cut price - upto 50% - flights are despertae but futile measures), the construction industry employing many Issan workers is grinding to a halt

Where are these posters now?

Hiding out, waiting for the collapse, I suppose.

TH

[CrossBones]

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees?

What do you suppose is now (and has been for the past few months) happening to that income generated offshore for expat retirees in Thailand? Have you looked at savings rates in Britain or the US recently? Is there a Stock Market boom to cash in on?

No there isnt its a suckers rally. So much bad debt in the world.... hyperinflation is coming worldwide. Thailand too. Buy gold prices will go up another 50% or so.. but know when to sell.

Got to think more about preserving your wealth.. not making a profit.

[Naam]

HSBC Forecasts Thailand GDP To Grow 4.6 Per Cent In 2010

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=476464

[Abrak]

HSBC Forecasts Thailand GDP To Grow 4.6 Per Cent In 2010

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=476464

So Naam comes to make his usual monthly post to take the piss out of the small bunch of lunatics that see an economic crash in a country that it is hard to know of any other on the entire planet that is producing the sort of economic numbers that Thailand is producing (and no I dont count China when it is generating bank lending of 30% growth p.a.)

The BOT produces monthly figures which should be compared to the usual ridiculous forecast without a single lack of a fact.

Exports will disappear - they were up over 30% YOY in January

Thailand produces a twin surplus - a concept that is entirely foreign to countries in the West

The baht is overvalued - the BOT has sterilized 17% of the money supply to keep the value of the baht down (essentially reverse QE)

Mass unemployment - Actually the stated unemployment number (Ok not a particular meaningful number) has halved over the last six months

Forex reserves - i.e. massive amounts of other peoples useless currencies - a higher percentage of GDP than China

Tourist numbers - highest numbers achieved ever in December (admittedly the quality isnt that good)

Car sales up 35% YOY in December

And no this is not being achieved by a massive amount of borrowing - loan growth is low single digits

Ok their is a fiscal deficit of 5% but that doesnt even have enough digits to compare it self with a Western economy

The nearest thing that the economic doomster can come to a fact is that the restaurant they went into today was empty. So Naam will come back ever month to have his little joke at your expense. But if you really want a laugh you should consider the economies of the UK, most of Euroland, the US and Japan essentially look more like Banana Republics against the fundamentals of Thailand.

[spidermike007]

The one aspect that most of the doomsayers forget, is that the single largest cause of the crash in the west, is the crash of the mortgage market. That has not affected Thais very much, and will not in the future. Since Thais very rarely use mortgages, the aspect that has crippled the residential housing market in the west, is not present here. One of the reasons that the condo market in Bangkok for instance, has not crashed, is that most of those units were bought for cash. No pressure from the banks. The market is soft, but I do not see if coming down very much. There are currently over 7,000 properties for sale in Samui. Most were paid for in cash. The prices are softer than they were 3 years ago, but I do not see a crash. Thailand manufactures very high quality export products, and that market has softened, but not collapsed. Of course, if the world suffered a depression, Thailand would crash. But as long as the world economy hangs in there, I do not see it happening. Also, the one aspect that some posters brought up, is that the Thais will adopt to a falling economy much, much better than the west. They have the strong family support, and they are accustomed to doing without, so they will adapt. They can live on much less than we can, and if they have to cut back, they will be able to do so. Another aspect is that if a Thai loses his job, he can make up that income fairly easily by opening a street stall. Many of my Thai friends make more money with their little street businesses, than most college grads make here in Thailand. In the west it is hard to replace the income from good jobs. Here it does not require a creative genius to do so.

[mommysboy]

The Thai Condo market is crashing and restaurants and businesses are closing by the thousand. In Pratunam alone I estimated 150 small traders.

[Naam]

HSBC Forecasts Thailand GDP To Grow 4.6 Per Cent In 2010

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=476464

So Naam comes to make his usual monthly post to take the piss out of the small bunch of lunatics that see an economic crash in a country that it is hard to know of any other on the entire planet that is producing the sort of economic numbers that Thailand is producing (and no I dont count China when it is generating bank lending of 30% growth p.a.)

The BOT produces monthly figures which should be compared to the usual ridiculous forecast without a single lack of a fact.

Exports will disappear - they were up over 30% YOY in January

Thailand produces a twin surplus - a concept that is entirely foreign to countries in the West

The baht is overvalued - the BOT has sterilized 17% of the money supply to keep the value of the baht down (essentially reverse QE)

Mass unemployment - Actually the stated unemployment number (Ok not a particular meaningful number) has halved over the last six months

Forex reserves - i.e. massive amounts of other peoples useless currencies - a higher percentage of GDP than China

Tourist numbers - highest numbers achieved ever in December (admittedly the quality isnt that good)

Car sales up 35% YOY in December

And no this is not being achieved by a massive amount of borrowing - loan growth is low single digits

Ok their is a fiscal deficit of 5% but that doesnt even have enough digits to compare it self with a Western economy

The nearest thing that the economic doomster can come to a fact is that the restaurant they went into today was empty. So Naam will come back ever month to have his little joke at your expense. But if you really want a laugh you should consider the economies of the UK, most of Euroland, the US and Japan essentially look more like Banana Republics against the fundamentals of Thailand.

you bet your sweet butt that i will! i consider it my duty to guide those who have wet dreams back to reality

[David006]

Do I think there will be a crash? Absolutely NOT....just looking at some real data e.g. Thailand BOI reports investment in 2009 exceeded forecast by 80%..it would seem that the sky is not falling ...not with all the hot air from TV supporting it...getting a bit sticky underfoot though...

[thaihome]

... In Pratunam alone I estimated 150 small traders.

So you think that fact that failure of 150 traders that were probably selling smuggled Chinese made textiles is an indicator for the overall Thai economy?

TH

[Naam]

Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in Q4

BANGKOK: -- (AFP) - Thailand's economy grew for the first time in more than a year in the fourth quarter of 2009, boosted by tourism and rising exports, official figures showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the last three months of 2009 was up 5.8 percent year-on-year after four consecutive quarters of contractions, according to data from the National Economic and Social Development Board.

"The growth improved due to positive figures in exports and tourism," said Ampon Kittiampon, secretary general of the board, adding that government stimulus packages had also helped.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economy...97#entry3359297

[caf]

HSBC Forecasts Thailand GDP To Grow 4.6 Per Cent In 2010

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=476464

A press release on the same topic also included a reference to the political situation, the situation inn the South, and the legal case on Friday. That was hardly relevant but shows these prs for what they really are.

Doubt anyone who checks info with other sources believes it anyway. Explains why TV has so many lurkers

caf

[MJP]

Saw a really nasty bike crash in Phnom Penh.

anybody seen any crash lately?

[chiang mai]

HSBC Forecasts Thailand GDP To Grow 4.6 Per Cent In 2010

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsworld.php?id=476464

So Naam comes to make his usual monthly post to take the piss out of the small bunch of lunatics that see an economic crash in a country that it is hard to know of any other on the entire planet that is producing the sort of economic numbers that Thailand is producing (and no I dont count China when it is generating bank lending of 30% growth p.a.)

The BOT produces monthly figures which should be compared to the usual ridiculous forecast without a single lack of a fact.

Exports will disappear - they were up over 30% YOY in January

Thailand produces a twin surplus - a concept that is entirely foreign to countries in the West

The baht is overvalued - the BOT has sterilized 17% of the money supply to keep the value of the baht down (essentially reverse QE)

Mass unemployment - Actually the stated unemployment number (Ok not a particular meaningful number) has halved over the last six months

Forex reserves - i.e. massive amounts of other peoples useless currencies - a higher percentage of GDP than China

Tourist numbers - highest numbers achieved ever in December (admittedly the quality isnt that good)

Car sales up 35% YOY in December

And no this is not being achieved by a massive amount of borrowing - loan growth is low single digits

Ok their is a fiscal deficit of 5% but that doesnt even have enough digits to compare it self with a Western economy

The nearest thing that the economic doomster can come to a fact is that the restaurant they went into today was empty. So Naam will come back ever month to have his little joke at your expense. But if you really want a laugh you should consider the economies of the UK, most of Euroland, the US and Japan essentially look more like Banana Republics against the fundamentals of Thailand.

And despite being told, many many times over many many months, so many people still still don't get it, I mean, what does it take, perhaps masochism is actually enjoyable, dunno.

[neil324]

Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in Q4

BANGKOK: -- (AFP) - Thailand's economy grew for the first time in more than a year in the fourth quarter of 2009, boosted by tourism and rising exports, official figures showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the last three months of 2009 was up 5.8 percent year-on-year after four consecutive quarters of contractions, according to data from the National Economic and Social Development Board.

"The growth improved due to positive figures in exports and tourism," said Ampon Kittiampon, secretary general of the board, adding that government stimulus packages had also helped.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economy...97#entry3359297

Oh <deleted> off, boosted by tourism

[MJP]

Remember the previous year, there was no tourism.

Thai economy grows 5.8 percent in Q4

BANGKOK: -- (AFP) - Thailand's economy grew for the first time in more than a year in the fourth quarter of 2009, boosted by tourism and rising exports, official figures showed Monday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the last three months of 2009 was up 5.8 percent year-on-year after four consecutive quarters of contractions, according to data from the National Economic and Social Development Board.

"The growth improved due to positive figures in exports and tourism," said Ampon Kittiampon, secretary general of the board, adding that government stimulus packages had also helped.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economy...97#entry3359297

Oh <deleted> off, boosted by tourism

[mommysboy]

... In Pratunam alone I estimated 150 small traders.

So you think that fact that failure of 150 traders that were probably selling smuggled Chinese made textiles is an indicator for the overall Thai economy?

TH

Well excuse me! you'll understand that as a humble trader I don't have eyes and ears at the highest levels- I see what I see. Also in my particular family circumstance, there are 3 big earners, me, and the 2 others are struggling badly.

Still you stick to your muppet slide rule!