Thai Economic Crash

[lannarebirth]

I would only add:

[/url]

http://rutube.ru/tracks/1431511.html[/

[Naam]

p.s. F the government.

seconded!

[midas]

I came back recently from the GNoE^TM and I'm still depresssed, though I'm starting to come out of it. Does that count?

It does if you tell us what depressed you

I betting it was the food or the women eh?

What depressed me was my sense that a permanent underclass is developing. Many areas I travelled too look blighted and the only investment I could see were bigger and bigger local government projects with dubious utility and lack opf maintenace on former projects. Additionally the cars they seem to be turning out there are absolutely are ugly beyond words. Jesus, what happened to the Jeep franchise? Lots of poor quality "all you can eat" diners. Evenj the pizzas don't taste good anymore. And the women! Four days before I saw a mildly attractive one, and that was one of the Mexicans that everyone wishes would go home. My conclusion, America needs more Mexicans emigrating.

I didn't reply in that last post because frankly, Bob Dylan is a master his work stands quite well by itself.

I'd follow that up with:

2. "The Times They Are A-Changin"

3. "Shelter From the Storm"

4. "The Weight" (Dylan and The Band)

5. "I Shall Be Released" (again, The Band)

That would pretty sum up my thoughts - musically - about the current status of the GNoE^tm.

"Like A Rolling Stone" gets you thinking and is all-encompassing genius,

followed by "The Times They Are A-Changin" which presents some reality,

then "Shelter From the Storm" is kind of like a bottom, both positive and reflective.

"The Weight" - you've already turned the corner and things are looking up,

And then with "I Shall Be Released," clarity.

I just blew the doors off of my house and now my neighborhood must know Dylan songs by heart now, and those are my thoughts.

I will be going back to the GNoE^tm again in a couple of weeks. I will see if I can see some of what lanna described. I know that it is occurring, and my liberal-education makes my heart bleed a bit - but I'm not a policy guy so I do what I can do when I can do it. Last time I was home member girlx mentioned Adam Smith's quote, "The real tragedy of the poor is the poverty of their aspirations" in what I think was a similar conversation in the "Financial Crisis" thread.

That may be partly true, but I think one of the problems is people's idea of ''time.'' If people have to ''suck it up'' (austerity, whatever you want to call it), it has to occur over a much longer time frame than ''today, tomorrow, this week, this election, etc. etc.'' Things take time, and it could take generations. Real wealth is built over TIME, and in many cases, generations. Somebody along the line ''sucked it up'' for a long-ass time to get to where we are today. People forget that. It's time to remember that and reflect upon it. Which brings me back to Bob Dylan and "Like A Rolling Stone." Mastery. Pure and simple.

p.s. F the government.

the part i cant understand is how a country that put man on the moon and

whose " can do " attitude put the " G " in GNoE^tm seems to have

evaporated ? Why has this happened ?

[Kwasaki]

l understand the Latin but could someone tell what the GNoE / TM means.

[flying]

l understand the Latin but could someone tell what the GNoE / TM means.

Trademarked by our very own Herr Naam it stands for Greatest Nation On Earth

[Kwasaki]

l understand the Latin but could someone tell what the GNoE / TM means.

Trademarked by our very own Herr Naam it stands for Greatest Nation On Earth

OK thanks for that, England use to be the Greediest Nation on Earth once too !! China next l guess.:jap:

[Naam]

l understand the Latin but could someone tell what the GNoE / TM means.

Trademarked by our very own Herr Naam it stands for Greatest Nation On Earth

i plead guilty as charged as far as the trade mark is concerned. the expression itself was coined by the Honourable Sir Bill O'Reilly, Esq. who also taught FAUX News moderators to use quite often "The President of the Yewnighted States and Leader of the World, Jorge Bush (pequeño) de Tejas..."

[flying]

"The President of the Yewnighted States and Leader of the World, Jorge Bush (pequeño) de Tejas..."

:lol:

[Ricardo]

l understand the Latin but could someone tell what the GNoE / TM means.

Trademarked by our very own Herr Naam it stands for Greatest Nation On Earth

OK thanks for that, England use to be the Greediest Nation on Earth once too !! China next l guess.:jap:

My history-teacher told me, Greece & Italy are also previous-holders, of this 'Greatest Nation' title.

But I understand that modern-genetics shows, we're all just African emigrants, originally ?

[Ricardo]

you bet your sweet butt that i will! i consider it my duty to guide those who have wet dreams back to reality

Was that a discreet coded-invitation, to a pool-party, at your place ?

[Naam]

you bet your sweet butt that i will! i consider it my duty to guide those who have wet dreams back to reality

Was that a discreet coded-invitation, to a pool-party, at your place ?

no pool parties in my house!

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

true! i learned in january 2009 that it "is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here" now it's november 2010 and i am still waiting for the great Depression.

[Naam]

any news concerning the great depression?

[craigt3365]

any news concerning the great depression?

I just noticed this thread...and the OP date. That's why I love my new signature line....

[Naam]

i think the crash finally arrived! i heard a loud bang this morning

[waza]

any news concerning the great depression?

The great depression has been postponed due to the lack of interest by asia.

[Naam]

lest we forget... the crash is imminent!

[gregb]

lest we forget... the crash is imminent!

In 20 years, Naam is going to be sitting inside his gated community with armed guards at the shack, unable to venture out to more than 20% of the country without a body guard, with only 30% of the variety of goods available in today's industrial economy, going "where is that collapse?"

If you've ever watched a video of a train wreck, the momentum is substantially more than you would guess. Despite the fact that the train has left the tracks, it keeps going for a quite a while before finally coming to rest. The global economic collapse which is already in progress will be a very slow, drawn out affair, but over a timespan of decades the devastation will be incredible. Naam won't admit it until his personal portfolio is affected, but it will be there nevertheless.

Been to a supermarket lately? Can you pick me up a case of palm oil on the way home? No? Why not? Oh yes, but that is just bad policy. We'll fix that and everything will be OK. A while back it was sugar. Just wait until we get to rationing diesel fuel because of "bad policy". And the wealthy with trilingual gardeners will always be saying "But just let the price rise so I can have mine!" See? No collapse.

Collapse is already upon us. Look around. You'll see the signs everywhere. The problem is, during ordinary life, collapse just looks like life, and it will be a very individual phenomenon. When it happens to your neighbour, it is simply bad luck. When it happens to you, it becomes collapse. It is only over a period of decades we will be able to look in the rear view mirror and see it for what it truly is.

[AlexLah]

Dear Naam,

As car sales have increased substantionally, more crashes will happen and as a result of more cars on the road and drivers thinking switching lanes every 30 seconds, and getting as close as possible to the car in front will get them faster to their end destination.

Wherever that is depending on interpretation of "End Destination"

The crashes might be less severe due to increased density of vehicles and therefore lower average speed but increased fuel usage combined with an ever increasing price of fuel will set the price of transportation of goods through the roof and as a result foods and stuff will be less affordable for those on lower wages which are the majority of Thai consumers. As a result people will revolt and perhaps burn down a few more shopping malls and as a result the price of insuring property will rise. This will be charged back to consumers on popular items purchased like Som Tam, fried rice and noodles. Plenty of connections can be made but for sure it's safe to say we are toast in the longer term that is......

[Naam]

In 20 years, Naam is going to be sitting inside his gated community with armed guards at the shack, unable to venture out to more than 20% of the country without a body guard, with only 30% of the variety of goods available in today's industrial economy, going "where is that collapse?"

actually i wouldn't mind that Greg. but a fair assumption is that in 20 years...

-my remnants (whatever the relevant crematorium supplies) will be kept in a compact dwelling called "urn" 1.5 meters below the surface of a family grave located in a graveyard in Germany.

or (if karma allows it)

-i will be living in the country where i was born (Switzerland) reading in newspapers and a Thai forum about that far away country Thailand where i have spent some nice and interesting years, shake my head and tell my wife "they still have double pricing over there and some Farangs bitch about it when they don't bitch about their Thai wives/girlfriends/boyfriends, the strong Baht, the high bar fines, ATM fees, the lack of good fish and chips, Thais poking their noses in public, fat old Farangs having sex with young ladies one third their age, how to tune their motorbikes to get additional 1.75 horsepowers, where to buy cheap <insert product> but most be quality!, the cost of visa runs..."

and then my wife will yawn and ask me "what's new?"

[anon7867763]

I can't get this post at all.Thailand in crisis ????.Thailand is booming and if you look at exports over the last year they have risen alot.Tempory set back with the Japan crisis but Thailand still has a lot of boom to go before it could ever go bust.I wander where you all get your information ?

[Naam]

Thailand in crisis ????

this thread started in jan 2009 when the economic environment was quite dicey and nobody knew what the future might hold. "nobody" might not be the right expression because a bunch of "learned" gloomy and doomy "experts" dared to post their visions and prophecies.

Yes! Thailand is online for the second wave of destruction.

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

View Postajc1970, on 2009-01-31 15:04:00, said:

As my evidence, I'd submit your sarcastic "sky is falling" responses to anybody who made a negative economic forecast. From that, the natural (although possibly incorrect) conclusions are either:

1. You think everything is going to be warm & fuzzy

2. You're an Internet troll who enjoys making sarcastic posts, and whether you actually believe what you're writing doesn't matter

that's just for starters. read on yourself.

[Berkshire]

lest we forget... the crash is imminent!

In 20 years, Naam is going to be sitting inside his gated community with armed guards at the shack, unable to venture out to more than 20% of the country without a body guard, with only 30% of the variety of goods available in today's industrial economy, going "where is that collapse?"

If you've ever watched a video of a train wreck, the momentum is substantially more than you would guess. Despite the fact that the train has left the tracks, it keeps going for a quite a while before finally coming to rest. The global economic collapse which is already in progress will be a very slow, drawn out affair, but over a timespan of decades the devastation will be incredible. Naam won't admit it until his personal portfolio is affected, but it will be there nevertheless.

Been to a supermarket lately? Can you pick me up a case of palm oil on the way home? No? Why not? Oh yes, but that is just bad policy. We'll fix that and everything will be OK. A while back it was sugar. Just wait until we get to rationing diesel fuel because of "bad policy". And the wealthy with trilingual gardeners will always be saying "But just let the price rise so I can have mine!" See? No collapse.

Collapse is already upon us. Look around. You'll see the signs everywhere. The problem is, during ordinary life, collapse just looks like life, and it will be a very individual phenomenon. When it happens to your neighbour, it is simply bad luck. When it happens to you, it becomes collapse. It is only over a period of decades we will be able to look in the rear view mirror and see it for what it truly is.

Based on this latest news (http://www.thaivisa....s-hit-new-high/), the Thai economy seems to be churning along quite nicely.

[Naam]

don't let us forget the Thai economic crash just because bin-Laden was finally caught!

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

For best results

WHEN IN DANGER, WHEN IN DOUBT, RUN IN CIRCLES, SCREAM AND SHOUT

But if this crash is going to take decades to happen, I think I will wait a decade or two to worry about it.

[Naam]

let's opt for TWO decades BDT. agreed?

[flying]

let's opt for TWO decades BDT. agreed?

Let me know when to start running in the US will ya?

But it wont be in circles

[Naam]

let's opt for TWO decades BDT. agreed?

Let me know when to start running in the US will ya?

But it wont be in circles

who said we will run? we just lean back and wait two decades for the crash to happen.

[happyfish88]

friendly reminder: this thread is called "Thai Economic Crash" not british pensions, not NY stock exchange, not riots in Guadeloupe...

Thailand may have 'come a long way' into the western model. But does it still have the society and culture to go back to a self-sufficiency economy?

Does it still have the ability to go back to a self-sufficiency economy?

Possibly...... but not without a great deal of pain and misery for a lot of people.

The less affluent population has had a taste of western goods and services. If only the likes of a TV in every house, a wider variety of foods/drinks and the ability to buy Ice Cream for the kids when the Ice cream man pulls up outside the village.

Whilst they can live without them, would they now be happy to do so?

Prime example. How many kids in the local village school have Mobile phones? If the economy is squeezed, so to are the teens who have these status symbols. This in turn impacts on the parents who are asked to provide such niceties and like it or not this can and will effect the lifestyles of the families involved.

Yes thailand can survive and can probably; with a lot of work; return to a mostly agricultural, self sufficient society but the fact remains that human nature does not like having its luxuries curtailed.

Will resent anyone who removes those luxuries and will actively oppose anyone who tells them they cannot have them.

Pandora's box has been opened and it will be hard to close it again without severe acts.

Excellent post and thanks for replying.

Yes indeed it will be painful. I just hope they manage to strike a balance. Insatiable material demand in the UK, especially for the intangible status symbols, I think has brought psychological pain and suffering to many.

Even though I earned well in the UK, I drove an old Xantia diesel when I could have driven a Porsche. I just never wanted that 'got to have the best thing' treadmill of dissatisfaction.

When we speak of economies today, I hope at least basic services and trade will survive, because the rest, to be honest is top dressing.

Fully agreed....gd post.:jap:

[Naam]

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailands economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

three years and four months passed since this thread was established. did any of the apocalyptic forecasts come true?