Thai Economic Crash

[Naam]

Thailand in crisis ????

this thread started in jan 2009 when the economic environment was quite dicey and nobody knew what the future might hold. "nobody" might not be the right expression because a bunch of "learned" gloomy and doomy "experts" dared to post their visions and prophecies.

Yes! Thailand is online for the second wave of destruction.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__2483804

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__2483864

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__2484005

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__2484343

View Postajc1970, on 2009-01-31 15:04:00, said:

As my evidence, I'd submit your sarcastic "sky is falling" responses to anybody who made a negative economic forecast. From that, the natural (although possibly incorrect) conclusions are either:

1. You think everything is going to be warm & fuzzy

2. You're an Internet troll who enjoys making sarcastic posts, and whether you actually believe what you're writing doesn't matter

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__2500707

that's just for starters. read on yourself.

for the lazy ones who prefer mouseclicks.

signed:

Naam (alleged internet troll)

[yoshiwara]

I suspect that the End Of Thailand crowd have sashayed into the end of the world alliance. Plenty of hysteria there. The Financial World is Nigh. They spend all day prostrate in front of a golden calf. And providing links to websites predicting How It Will All End.

[Naam]

reviving this thread is meant as a deterrent because the first new shoots of "Thailand and Thai Baht are bound to go down the drain" have been detected.

[12DrinkMore]

reviving this thread is meant as a deterrent because the first new shoots of "Thailand and Thai Baht are bound to go down the drain" have been detected.

Didn't realise you had such a sense of humour.....

[Naam]

necessity is the mother of invention and wishful thinking is the mother of wet dreams.

[yoshiwara]

necessity is the mother of invention and wishful thinking is the mother of wet dreams.

Not a problem in Pattaya.

[waza]

I guess my prediction of 1,000,000 unemployed Thais heading back to rice field was close but no cigar. Should have been 1,000,000 unemployed Burmese heading back to Myanmar.

Edited May 28, 2012 by waza

[Naam]

I guess my prediction of 1,000,000 unemployed Thais heading back to rice field was close but no cigar. Should have been 1,000,000 unemployed Burmese heading back to Myanmar.

it's the other way round. the Thai government has eased access for neighbouring citizens to work in Thailand and in some areas there's a shortage of non-thai employees.

[Naam]

Thailand - Southeast Asia's bright star

• Thailand's economic growth should have started to normalize in

2H12, but new, important monetary and fiscal drivers suggest

growth will be defensive despite any further weakening in exports.

• The banking sector has performed well, but long-term structural

drivers and comparative value to the Asian banking sector suggest

Thai banks will continue to be re-rated.

• Our Thai equity strategy continues to overweight financial and

construction stocks. We also have exposure to select consumer

counters.

Is Thailand Southeast Asia's most resilient economy?

Thailand is shaping up to be one of the best-positioned Southeast Asian

economies in the face of slowing export growth. One reason is that Thai

exports had been in a counter-trend in 1H12, enjoying sharp growth after

the production disruption caused by the floods in late 2011. The extent of

the recovery has been impressive given that by 2Q12 the Thai economy had

expanded 2.5% from before the floods – a considerable feat given how

industrial production and consumption were hampered by flood damage.

That said, looking out to 2H12, it is clear that sequential GDP growth will

taper off as the low-base effect post-4Q11 starts wearing off. However, we

do not believe this is a reason to be overly concerned, given the fire power

from the government's monetary and fiscal policies that will kick in to lend

support in 2H12.

Don't ignore new drivers in 2H12

One reason for Thailand's resilience has been the timely government policy

support, a reflection of the efficiency of the new Yingluck Shinawatra

administration. Policy rates have been cut 40 basis points since the

floods despite an impressive economic recovery, and several large public

investment projects will be rolled out in 2H12. These include a THB

350bn fund for water-related projects and a THB 2.3 trillion infrastructureinvestment

plan dedicated to improving domestic connectivity through

high-speed railways, mass transit, and double-tracking (see Fig. 3). Based

on these projects, we view Thailand very much as a key player in steppedup

regional connectivity through infrastructure investment – a key thesis of

our "Winners from North-South ASEAN integration" theme.

Growth over inflation

On 17 October, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut the policy rate by 25 basis

points to 2.75%, citing concern on the slowdown in exports and China's

economy. Given that Thai inflation appears under control with little impact

so far from this year's minimum-wage hike, the BoT continues to prioritize

the impact on growth from slowing exports by "shoring up domestic

demand." As it stands, 2H12 GDP growth is already likely to show signs of

stabilizing due to the base effect. In addition, the second half will also see

the termination of policies offering preferential rates to first-time auto and

home buyers, affecting consumption. Given that there are early signs of

export-growth recovery across the region, the rate cut offers an additional

safety hedge against a renewed slowdown in 2H12. We do not foresee any

further rate cuts in Thailand over the next 12 months.

Spotlight on Thai banking sector

Thai banks have been key beneficiaries of falling rates, with system loans

continuing to enjoy growth rates in the mid-teens this year. It is significant

that, while a lot has been said about the Thai economy's shifting to

an investment-led growth model, consumer-loan growth has continued to

enjoy the sharpest growth over the last three years. This is in part because

of government policies offering first-time auto and home buyers preferential

loans – a policy that will expire later this year. However, the actual benefits

of this policy for banks' loan growth will continue into 2013 due to a

three- to six-month lead time on the delivery of cars, which should flatten

out the growth.

The outlook for business-loan growth remains robust due to government

infrastructure spending. However, we also identify two new key growth

drivers for Thai business-loan growth: a rising trend for mergers and acquisitions

by Thai companies, such as PTT's acquisition of Banpu mines; and

cross-border expansions by Thai small and medium enterprises in the run up

to the full implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community by 2015.

The structural outlook for loan growth in Thailand is positive because corporate

gearing remains low, as does the loan-to-GDP multiple which has

plenty of scope to rise. This is one reason Thai banks have enjoyed a valuation

re-rating over the last year. Thai banks still remain the cheapest in Asia

after China and South Korea and, given their low price-earnings growth

(PEG), warrant further re-rating upside, in our view.

Equity strategy

Thai equities have performed roughly in line with the region over the last

month. Valuations remain reasonable, trading at a tiny premium to a 10-

year average P/E. Relative to the region, MSCI Thailand trades at 10.6x

2013 consensus estimates, the cheapest market in Asia after China and

South Korea, yet offering the third-highest EPS growth in the region after

Japan and Taiwan. Our Thai equity strategy continues to be heavily weighted

towards Thai banks. We also maintain some exposure to property (Land

& Houses and Amata) and select consumer names (TUF and Minor). While

banks have enjoyed solid share-price performance this year and are widely

held, we believe there is still further room for a valuation re-rating.

[topt]

Thailand - Southeast Asia's bright star

• Thailand's economic growth should have started to normalize in

2H12, but new, important monetary and fiscal drivers suggest

growth will be defensive despite any further weakening in exports.

• The banking sector has performed well, but long-term structural

drivers and comparative value to the Asian banking sector suggest

Thai banks will continue to be re-rated.

• Our Thai equity strategy continues to overweight financial and

construction stocks. We also have exposure to select consumer

counters.

Is Thailand Southeast Asia's most resilient economy?

Thailand is shaping up to be one of the best-positioned Southeast Asian

economies in the face of slowing export growth. One reason is that Thai

exports had been in a counter-trend in 1H12, enjoying sharp growth after

the production disruption caused by the floods in late 2011. The extent of

the recovery has been impressive given that by 2Q12 the Thai economy had

expanded 2.5% from before the floods – a considerable feat given how

industrial production and consumption were hampered by flood damage.

That said, looking out to 2H12, it is clear that sequential GDP growth will

taper off as the low-base effect post-4Q11 starts wearing off. However, we

do not believe this is a reason to be overly concerned, given the fire power

from the government's monetary and fiscal policies that will kick in to lend

support in 2H12.

Don't ignore new drivers in 2H12

One reason for Thailand's resilience has been the timely government policy

support, a reflection of the efficiency of the new Yingluck Shinawatra

administration. Policy rates have been cut 40 basis points since the

floods despite an impressive economic recovery, and several large public

investment projects will be rolled out in 2H12. These include a THB

350bn fund for water-related projects and a THB 2.3 trillion infrastructureinvestment

plan dedicated to improving domestic connectivity through

high-speed railways, mass transit, and double-tracking (see Fig. 3). Based

on these projects, we view Thailand very much as a key player in steppedup

regional connectivity through infrastructure investment – a key thesis of

our "Winners from North-South ASEAN integration" theme.

Growth over inflation

On 17 October, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut the policy rate by 25 basis

points to 2.75%, citing concern on the slowdown in exports and China's

economy. Given that Thai inflation appears under control with little impact

so far from this year's minimum-wage hike, the BoT continues to prioritize

the impact on growth from slowing exports by "shoring up domestic

demand." As it stands, 2H12 GDP growth is already likely to show signs of

stabilizing due to the base effect. In addition, the second half will also see

the termination of policies offering preferential rates to first-time auto and

home buyers, affecting consumption. Given that there are early signs of

export-growth recovery across the region, the rate cut offers an additional

safety hedge against a renewed slowdown in 2H12. We do not foresee any

further rate cuts in Thailand over the next 12 months.

Spotlight on Thai banking sector

Thai banks have been key beneficiaries of falling rates, with system loans

continuing to enjoy growth rates in the mid-teens this year. It is significant

that, while a lot has been said about the Thai economy's shifting to

an investment-led growth model, consumer-loan growth has continued to

enjoy the sharpest growth over the last three years. This is in part because

of government policies offering first-time auto and home buyers preferential

loans – a policy that will expire later this year. However, the actual benefits

of this policy for banks' loan growth will continue into 2013 due to a

three- to six-month lead time on the delivery of cars, which should flatten

out the growth.

The outlook for business-loan growth remains robust due to government

infrastructure spending. However, we also identify two new key growth

drivers for Thai business-loan growth: a rising trend for mergers and acquisitions

by Thai companies, such as PTT's acquisition of Banpu mines; and

cross-border expansions by Thai small and medium enterprises in the run up

to the full implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community by 2015.

The structural outlook for loan growth in Thailand is positive because corporate

gearing remains low, as does the loan-to-GDP multiple which has

plenty of scope to rise. This is one reason Thai banks have enjoyed a valuation

re-rating over the last year. Thai banks still remain the cheapest in Asia

after China and South Korea and, given their low price-earnings growth

(PEG), warrant further re-rating upside, in our view.

Equity strategy

Thai equities have performed roughly in line with the region over the last

month. Valuations remain reasonable, trading at a tiny premium to a 10-

year average P/E. Relative to the region, MSCI Thailand trades at 10.6x

2013 consensus estimates, the cheapest market in Asia after China and

South Korea, yet offering the third-highest EPS growth in the region after

Japan and Taiwan. Our Thai equity strategy continues to be heavily weighted

towards Thai banks. We also maintain some exposure to property (Land

& Houses and Amata) and select consumer names (TUF and Minor). While

banks have enjoyed solid share-price performance this year and are widely

held, we believe there is still further room for a valuation re-rating.

Naam can you give us the source for this? Thanks

[Naam]

Naam can you give us the source for this? Thanks

sorry Topt. it's research from one of my banks and actually not meant for publication. but because the subject is Thailand i jumped the regulation.

[farang000999]

lol @ yingluck government ensuing confidence. that guy wrote the article on the plane ride over from hk and spent the entire time in a bar i'd imagine.

[Naam]

lol @ yingluck government ensuing confidence. that guy wrote the article on the plane ride over from hk and spent the entire time in a bar i'd imagine.

the research i posted originates from one of the top multinational banks which has no branches in Thailand.

[yoshiwara]

lol @ yingluck government ensuing confidence. that guy wrote the article on the plane ride over from hk and spent the entire time in a bar i'd imagine.

the research i posted originates from one of the top multinational banks which has no branches in Thailand.

...and they don't drink. Not a drop.

[Naam]

lol @ yingluck government ensuing confidence. that guy wrote the article on the plane ride over from hk and spent the entire time in a bar i'd imagine.

the research i posted originates from one of the top multinational banks which has no branches in Thailand.

...and they don't drink. Not a drop.

not sure about that