Thai Bhat

[Underbelly]

I got all my money tied up in a Aussie bank account and only changing money when I really need it.

Luckily im living off my Wifes money that her father gave her a few years back and that should last us a year.

But I want the AU dollar to strengthen because I dont want to look as if im just spending all my wifes cash. Im thinking I might get a job here but I dont really want to work but wants to be here on holidays for a few years before I go back.

[quiksilva]

The Chinese are quite aware that if the rest of the world cannot afford to buy their exports then they themselves will suffer as much as anyone else.

So true.

What frustrates me is that China always seems to keep looking westwards for their solutions. They are the world's biggest factory, but it seems that they are mostly feeding Western consumerism. What about their domestic economy? That needs to grow doesn't it?

China's promise of huge swathes of market demand still seems to be largely unrealised. Whatever wealth has already been generated is still; relatively little (in terms of their populace) and even that has been largely untapped by Western firms who seem to be hardly making a dent, and those that have are hardly making any money.

Whilst IP issues are a big problem there, I think the biggest difference between the West and the East, is that Western society and demand is widely understood by the Chinese so they are able to cater to it, whilst the East remains mysterious to most Westerners, so we are trying to sell them stuff they don't need or want, and that I think is what has to change.

We need to learn from Asia, look at what Japan did to the British Motorcycle industry, they found products that were available and in demand in the domestic market and applied better technology and manufacturing processes to supply better (more reliable) goods at better prices.

Edited February 23, 2009 by quiksilva

[12DrinkMore]

What frustrates me is that China always seems to keep looking westwards for their solutions. They are the world's biggest factory, but it seems that they are mostly feeding Western consumerism. What about their domestic economy? That needs to grow doesn't it?

It is already happening.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...o-in-China.html

Despite current economic wobbles, disposable incomes in China have increased by 118pc over the past eight years and are projected to double in the next five. China is expected to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy by 2015. As an urban society replaces a rural one, these retailers have massive growth plans in China.

We need to learn from Asia, look at what Japan did to the British Motorcycle industry, they found products that were available and in demand in the domestic market and applied better technology and manufacturing processes to supply better (more reliable) goods at better prices.

Good suggestion, go and talk to Brown and Obamah about that....

And look where the Chinese are going to spend a bit of their pile

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-companies.html

China is preparing to open a new phase in its race for the world's resources by using its huge currency reserves to buy foreign oil and gas companies.

[loong]

What frustrates me is that China always seems to keep looking westwards for their solutions. They are the world's biggest factory, but it seems that they are mostly feeding Western consumerism. What about their domestic economy? That needs to grow doesn't it?

Quiksilva, you are right to a point.

What China (and Thailand, even Eastern Bloc) needs to learn is that a healthy economy should benefit everyone. Not just make the rich super-rich. If, when times are good, a fair % filters down to the man on the factory floor, then the working class have money to spend and a healthy domestic economy develops.

[henryalleman]

The problem is not the Thai economy it is the economy of their export partners.

I believe that though exports have fallen, Thailand is still a net exporter. Correct me if I'm wrong

In an ideal world the value of exports and imports should be roughly the same, so the western economies should be looking at how this can be done.

The western countries need to start exporting to Asia, but what? I don't know.

I can only talk about my own country.

Flanders export to Asia,

Hi Tech-textile ( indeed we still export textile to China)

Engineering

Pharmaceuticals

Weaving machines

bedding

Chemicals

Carpets

Hi-Tech automotives

Bio-Technology

Computer Software

HIDTV tecnology

Digital screens

to name only a few.

Flanders exports figures 2007

Asia in general + 7%

India +14.5%

Vietnam +34.2%

South Korea +21.9%

Malaysia +16.1%

Indonesia +15.2%

China +6%

If you compare this with the export figures to

EU member states +6%

Neighbour countries +4.1%

USA + 13.7%

South America +14.2%

you can see that Asia has more export potential than the EU countries.

So you can conclude that Europe is still exporting to Asia and its still a growing market.

[quiksilva]

What frustrates me is that China always seems to keep looking westwards for their solutions. They are the world's biggest factory, but it seems that they are mostly feeding Western consumerism. What about their domestic economy? That needs to grow doesn't it?

It is already happening.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...o-in-China.html

Good article. I think what Tesco's is doing is very smart, they are really trying to understand that market and are not trying to impose their own ideas on it, quite the opposite. Lets face it they are amongst the world's best consumer goods retailers.

Now if only the rest of the retail and manufacturing industries would follow suit, we might actually get somewhere...

Yes loong, agreed the wealth has to be more evenly distributed. As incomes at the lower tiers rise then factories become less competitive in the international arena, this should force them to look inwards, which should seem more viable as the workers will have more disposable income...

BUT and it is a big but...

The 'problem' is that the Chinese have a savings culture, as opposed to a consumer culture, so the rewards will take much longer to pay back. An Eastern style long term view towards success is needed, so the entire Western business culture of quick gains almost has to be left at the airport, or better still abandoned altogether, and why not? It seems that the economic gravitas has shifted in China's favour anyway so why not embrace it and move on?

[Ricardo]

http://<URL Automatically Removed>/2...nder-democrats/

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/artic...uKJFWsuPociBEAw

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a6WOwlZtZOq4

Thanks for the links. But I was looking for Ricardo to justify his statement

Sorry, but there were a reported half-million factory jobs lost, in the 4th Qtr of last year, not just several thousand. Which rather changes the overall picture.

Sorry 12DrinkMore, I only saw this a couple of days ago, been busy, and I've been trying since then to track-down where I heard the number in-passing. It wasn't the Bangkok Post on 24/12/08 which spoke of 880,000 workers forecast to lose their jobs in the 1st Qtr of 2009. There are so many similar threads running, in this & the News forums, that it's hard to find.

I was merely reacting to the idea that only several thousand jobs were lost, in the 4th Qtr, when I believe that it's one or two orders-of-magnitude greater.

[thaihome]

Sorry 12DrinkMore, I only saw this a couple of days ago, been busy, and I've been trying since then to track-down where I heard the number in-passing. It wasn't the Bangkok Post on 24/12/08 which spoke of 880,000 workers forecast to lose their jobs in the 1st Qtr of 2009. There are so many similar threads running, in this & the News forums, that it's hard to find.

I was merely reacting to the idea that only several thousand jobs were lost, in the 4th Qtr, when I believe that it's one or two orders-of-magnitude greater.

You can look, but you will struggle to find reports of a half million jobs actually lost in the 4Q 2008. Lots of predictions and forecasts though which you seem to have made into a fact.

TH

Edited February 24, 2009 by thaihome

[bonzor]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econom...baht-won-t-help

Any move to weaken the baht to help exports would ultimately prove futile, according to Tarisa Watanagase, the governor of the Bank of Thailand. The government this week suggested current exchange rates may be hurting Thailand's export competitiveness. Exports in January recorded their biggest decline in a decade with a 26.5% year-on-year contraction to $10.49 billion.

But Dr Tarisa said exchange rates had been less of a factor in export performance than the decline in demand from the United States, Japan and Europe.

Really, she speaks sense.

Why devalue your currency if the rate is NOT the main reason for the fall in exports, but lack of demand from the contracting economies of the West? At least they have made studies and are basing the decisions on them.

In the West all I hear are knee-jerk reactions based on the ideas of a long dead economist Keynes, who had never heard of globalisation.

You have to do something, any retailer faced by falling demand will attempt to cut prices and stimulate demand. Just because the strength of the baht isn't the main factor doesn't mean weakening it wouldn't help. If competitors have devalued then following them down just maintains parity.

Since when did being dead disqualify wisdom? You would disregard all of recorded human history in favour of the living? Keynesianism has its place and is still relevant even if its being misused by politicians desperate for a fix before the elections.

[bonzor]

The problem is not the Thai economy it is the economy of their export partners.

I believe that though exports have fallen, Thailand is still a net exporter. Correct me if I'm wrong

In an ideal world the value of exports and imports should be roughly the same, so the western economies should be looking at how this can be done.

The western countries need to start exporting to Asia, but what? I don't know.

I can only talk about my own country.

Flanders export to Asia,

Hi Tech-textile ( indeed we still export textile to China)

Engineering

Pharmaceuticals

Weaving machines

bedding

Chemicals

Carpets

Hi-Tech automotives

Bio-Technology

Computer Software

HIDTV tecnology

Digital screens

to name only a few.

Flanders exports figures 2007

Asia in general + 7%

India +14.5%

Vietnam +34.2%

South Korea +21.9%

Malaysia +16.1%

Indonesia +15.2%

China +6%

If you compare this with the export figures to

EU member states +6%

Neighbour countries +4.1%

USA + 13.7%

South America +14.2%

you can see that Asia has more export potential than the EU countries.

So you can conclude that Europe is still exporting to Asia and its still a growing market.

The figures also prove the opposite since europe has more potential as its got more room for growth. Also without any other figures like population and total size of sales..monetary value its meaningless. Though I can appreciate what point you are trying to make.

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

[henryalleman]

The problem is not the Thai economy it is the economy of their export partners.

I believe that though exports have fallen, Thailand is still a net exporter. Correct me if I'm wrong

In an ideal world the value of exports and imports should be roughly the same, so the western economies should be looking at how this can be done.

The western countries need to start exporting to Asia, but what? I don't know.

I can only talk about my own country.

Flanders export to Asia,

Hi Tech-textile ( indeed we still export textile to China)

Engineering

Pharmaceuticals

Weaving machines

bedding

Chemicals

Carpets

Hi-Tech automotives

Bio-Technology

Computer Software

HIDTV tecnology

Digital screens

to name only a few.

Flanders exports figures 2007

Asia in general + 7%

India +14.5%

Vietnam +34.2%

South Korea +21.9%

Malaysia +16.1%

Indonesia +15.2%

China +6%

If you compare this with the export figures to

EU member states +6%

Neighbour countries +4.1%

USA + 13.7%

South America +14.2%

you can see that Asia has more export potential than the EU countries.

So you can conclude that Europe is still exporting to Asia and its still a growing market.

The figures also prove the opposite since europe has more potential as its got more room for growth. Also without any other figures like population and total size of sales..monetary value its meaningless. Though I can appreciate what point you are trying to make.

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Ok no statistics but figures of 2008

Flanders is per capita the 10th biggest exporter in the world. Population 6.5 million.

Flanders export 302 billion $ yearly with 6.5 million people and this in an open economy and market, 46 461 $ per capita

Thailand export 174.9 billion $yearly whit 65 million people in a very protected economy and market, 2690 $ per capita

This shows that the Thai export mainly low value products, where they have to compete with other low labour cost countries like China, Vietnam and others and this battle they can't win at all, because there will be always somebody who is cheaper.

This is IMHO also the reason why their export to neighbouring countries like Malaysia, Singapore is relatively low and with Indonesia (237 million people) almost non existent and if my information correct even a trade deficit. Flanders have an higher export whit them than Thailand and that is abnormal. Remember the figures in my previous topic

Thailand import 159 billion $, so only a difference of 15 billion $

A trade deficit will be a reality in 2009.

This only shows that Thailand is not an exporting country at all. They can think they are but they aren't, and that their main export markets the US and Japan (24.5%) are in a deep recession.

42.6% of the workforce is employed in agriculture who only contribute 11.4% to the GDP. This is is far below par. Thai people think that they are living an agriculture state, but they aren't, because their so called agriculture is completely unproductive and therefore not profitable. For instance in Flanders 1% of the employment is in agriculture but its contribute 2% of the GDP.

You asked figures, so I give them to prove my statement

Thailand: 15 645 000 people in agriculture make 19.9 billion $ = 1272 $ per employee

Flanders: 39 000 people in agriculture make 7.458 billion = 191 231 $ per employee

Hello !!!! 150 times more.

May I add that more than 40% of the agriculture products are exported.

This figures shows only the deplorable state of agriculture in Thailand because under capitalized therefore unproductive and not profitable.

And still some people proclaim that Thailand feed the world.

Its unbelievable that there are people proclaiming that Thai people should go back to a self supporting economy and go back farming. Are they lunatics? This will ruin the country completely and bring even more poverty to the farmers.

The big earnings are coming from the service industry 44.1%(even this is below par, because in most developed countries the service industry contribute in general more than 70% to the GDP) who will be hit by the decline of tourism.

Add to that the downfall of tourism and exports and you don't have to be genius to figure out that the economical situation of Thailand in 2009 is looking very bad. Lets only hope that the political situation will stay calm, if this is not the case the situation will be dramatic..

The only thing who isin their favour is that the public debt is only 38.4 of the GDP.

PS: this is not bragging or showing of that Flanders is better, I only know their figures the best that's all, and to proof that the economical situation in Thailand is precarious. And I had to compare whit something to make my statements about the Thai economy valid.

If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me.

[eddiemonster]

Wow. When did Flanders become a country?

[henryalleman]

Wow. When did Flanders become a country?

Its have its own government and parliament, its 100 % responsible for his own economy, education, foreign affairs, international trade, infrastructure, agriculture, fishery,public transport, welfare system for the elderly and handicapped(mentally and physical) people, can sign international trade agreements, its saved with his own money a major bank, is completely debt free, have a surplus on his budget. What do you want more.

And I presume you are a Fleming also seeing your name, so you should know all this.

Or do you regard yourself as an inhabitant of a surrealistic country like Belgium?

paraphrasing Magritte

ceci n"est pas une pays

[eddiemonster]

No, I am not Flemish, but I have Flemish friends.

Good luck with the 'country'

[henryalleman]

No, I am not Flemish, but I have Flemish friends.

Good luck with the 'country'

Thanks, and chock dee.

with Flemish national greetings

[Sakeopete]

You guys are just over analyzing things, the Thai Baht is kept strong so the corrupt politicians have enough time to move their ill gotten gains out of the country slowly enough without raising suspicion and getting a reasonable exchange rate. Once it is all out the Baht will crash Viola politicians happy and exporters happy Simple!

[Merangue]

You guys are just over analyzing things, the Thai Baht is kept strong so the corrupt politicians have enough time to move their ill gotten gains out of the country slowly enough without raising suspicion and getting a reasonable exchange rate. Once it is all out the Baht will crash Viola politicians happy and exporters happy Simple!

Now that sounds quite credible

[Ricardo]

You guys are just over analyzing things, the Thai Baht is kept strong so the corrupt politicians have enough time to move their ill gotten gains out of the country slowly enough without raising suspicion and getting a reasonable exchange rate. Once it is all out the Baht will crash Viola politicians happy and exporters happy Simple!

Now that sounds quite credible

But how much longer to wait, until the crash, when they bring their money back and double it, in Baht terms ? That's the question !

[thaihome]

You guys are just over analyzing things, the Thai Baht is kept strong so the corrupt politicians have enough time to move their ill gotten gains out of the country slowly enough without raising suspicion and getting a reasonable exchange rate. Once it is all out the Baht will crash Viola politicians happy and exporters happy Simple!

Now that sounds quite credible

Of course, the fact that the baht is at its lowest point (against the USD) in two years is meaningless. This whole thread is really about how strong the USD is against the pound and Euro and how that has carried into the exchange rate for the Baht against them.

There is a very good chance that the baht will get to 40 before this year is over, but you Brits and Europeans will get no relief in the Baht rate, because the USD will continue to be strong.

TH

[sendbaht]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...s=ubs,cs,db,hbc

I read this yesterday...may sell my few Euros and buy US Dollars to spend in Thailand.

[Naam]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...s=ubs,cs,db,hbc

I read this yesterday... may sell my few Euros and buy US Dollars to spend in Thailand.

why would you exchange first into dollars before spending?

[mommysboy]

You guys are just over analyzing things, the Thai Baht is kept strong so the corrupt politicians have enough time to move their ill gotten gains out of the country slowly enough without raising suspicion and getting a reasonable exchange rate. Once it is all out the Baht will crash Viola politicians happy and exporters happy Simple!

Now that sounds quite credible

Of course, the fact that the baht is at its lowest point (against the USD) in two years is meaningless. This whole thread is really about how strong the USD is against the pound and Euro and how that has carried into the exchange rate for the Baht against them.

There is a very good chance that the baht will get to 40 before this year is over, but you Brits and Europeans will get no relief in the Baht rate, because the USD will continue to be strong.

TH

What's the 'natural rate' for the dollar anyway ?- in my mind I think 40, it always seemed to be that way to me.

You're right about Brits in particular, but there are quite a few European currencies too.

Where did you get the forecast from ? Also you're assuming there is no collapse in the bt, that may be right but it's still quite an assumption to make. In say 6 months time when defaults and impairments set in there could be some form of meltdown that could lead Thailand in to dire straits.

[loong]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...s=ubs,cs,db,hbc

I read this yesterday... may sell my few Euros and buy US Dollars to spend in Thailand.

why would you exchange first into dollars before spending?

If buy $ to change to Baht straight away, you'd actually get less due to 2 exchange spreads. Only possibly worth it if buy and hold $ for a while...

It would be worth it if you knew for sure that the Euro will weaken against Baht and the Baht weaken against the $.. and nobody knows for sure.

If I'd changed 1000 pounds into $ when was 2$ to the pound, I would have 2000$

With those 2000 $, I could now get 70,000 Baht, so =70 Baht per pound.

In this case no gain as when pound was 2$ , pound was 70 Baht...Just the same as buying and holding Baht.

[sendbaht]

"why would you exchange first into dollars before spending?"

It would not be done all in the same day....

[lodesafun]

They say that Thais aren't affected by the strong baht. I know one who's suffering and who goes ballistic every time someone even mentions the Bot. My girlfriend! The 150 pounds pocket money I give her every month has gone down from 10500 last year to 7500 baht now.

Made me sign in just so I can laugh with ya....

[henryalleman]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...s=ubs,cs,db,hbc

I read this yesterday... may sell my few Euros and buy US Dollars to spend in Thailand.

why would you exchange first into dollars before spending?

If buy $ to change to Baht straight away, you'd actually get less due to 2 exchange spreads. Only possibly worth it if buy and hold $ for a while...

It would be worth it if you knew for sure that the Euro will weaken against Baht and the Baht weaken against the $.. and nobody knows for sure.

If I'd changed 1000 pounds into $ when was 2$ to the pound, I would have 2000$

With those 2000 $, I could now get 70,000 Baht, so =70 Baht per pound.

In this case no gain as when pound was 2$ , pound was 70 Baht...Just the same as buying and holding Baht.

IF,WOULD

IF my cat was a cow I WOULD have milking her in front my TV set.

[henryalleman]

There is a very good chance that the baht will get to 40 before this year is over, but you Brits and Europeans will get no relief in the Baht rate, because the USD will continue to be strong.

TH

Keep on dreaming, but the waking up will be brutal.

Edited February 28, 2009 by henryalleman

[lannarebirth]

There is a very good chance that the baht will get to 40 before this year is over, but you Brits and Europeans will get no relief in the Baht rate, because the USD will continue to be strong.

TH

Keep on dreaming, but the waking up will be brutal.

If Flanders isn't heaven, I'll bet you can at least see it from there.

[loong]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...s=ubs,cs,db,hbc

I read this yesterday... may sell my few Euros and buy US Dollars to spend in Thailand.

why would you exchange first into dollars before spending?

If buy $ to change to Baht straight away, you'd actually get less due to 2 exchange spreads. Only possibly worth it if buy and hold $ for a while...

It would be worth it if you knew for sure that the Euro will weaken against Baht and the Baht weaken against the $.. and nobody knows for sure.

If I'd changed 1000 pounds into $ when was 2$ to the pound, I would have 2000$

With those 2000 $, I could now get 70,000 Baht, so =70 Baht per pound.

In this case no gain as when pound was 2$ , pound was 70 Baht...Just the same as buying and holding Baht.

IF,WOULD

IF my cat was a cow I WOULD have milking her in front my TV set.

Yes exactly my point (I think)....I pointed out that nobody can predict the future, so depends on a big "IF" to make it worthwhile. Also if I had changed money into $ when pound was 2$, I would still not be better off.

PS If your cat was a cow, you'd need a much bigger litter tray

[ozzieman05]

Well it has been a while now since I made the 1st post

The country has come to its knees with Red Shirts

But the Bhat is still at a level that is to High

I feel my listing has been hijacked by radical Falang

My question was in the 1st Post

Thai's in Issan are hurting as the money is not coming back to them through the normal channel

Why all the rambling on about nothing to do with my origional question

The Red Shirts complained that te poor people are not being looked after

This is my comment

The high Bhat is hurting the poor people who get the money from the tourist industry

If it is possible please read my post again

1) tourist converts a dollar at the exchange

2) Tourist spends less as he gets less

3) Bar Girl, tuk tuk driver, food seller etc make less money as there is less to spend

4) Issan girl. guy sends less money home as they make less

5) People in village have less money to spend

6) My wifes parents own the village shop and they have been hit with a 60% down turn

This is happening every where in the poorer villages

Do you think they worry about exports etc.

Lower the Bhat exchange rate and the above money spending channel will improve

And the life stylr of the poor Village people will improve

But why should the Expats on this site worry, unless you have a Thai family you are helping to support, you can always buy another beer, and cut down the price of the local Bar Girl as times are tough