Empty Condo Units In Bangkok

[midas]

My rationale for a quicker recovery than you might expect is based on my dealings with major industrial manufacturers (which is where I spend most of my time) who are, even in the current climate, establishing new manufacturing plants in Thailand. I can't disclose who or too many details as its sensitive information right now, but they are proceeding despite all the political problems, and current economic turbulence.

The firms I am dealing with (from Australia and Europe) are struggling with high costs in their home markets, and lagging sales, so they are making the tough decision to off shore.

Shifting operations here in order to reduce their operating expenses, and take advantage of other investment privileges, can result in some drastic savings, and for some it might mean the difference between survival and collapse.

Labour costs are the reasons most often cited, one of these major manufacturers gave me a very vivid example. A trained welder in Denmark costs 150,000 Baht a month, the same can be had here for less than 20,000. The same comparisons can be made in Australia, who also have the benefit of the FTA.

Dont get me wrong, I do believe that exports will continue to weaken in light of weakened western demand and that many existing firms will operate at reduced capacity and some may even close, however I expect that Thailand will attract FDI as an offshoring trend gathers steam. This will help strengthen Thailand's fiscal position, and support export numbers.

quiksilva I can't for one minute see how you merely giving examples of

some major manufacturers that may be moving to Thailand supports your statement

" but I also believe that we will emerge from this quicker than you expect "?

I thought you might have an enlightening angle regarding one of the many problems the G20 leaders are

now confronting whereas your response proves absolutely nothing !

And there is even less connection between this and any possible improvement in the

condominium market in the Metropolitan area. Even if you told me that there were several

hundred foreign companies looking at Bangkok right now ( and let us completely ignore the competition

for other destinations such as India and China ) - that would still only translate into a very small

number of potential executive tenants or possible buyers for the huge number of

condos near the city centre because many would probably prefer to live

near the factory areas anyway. So back to the question -where are all the other

purchasers for these empty condominiums going to come from?

[midas]

And thus the Thai Baht will strengthen against EU and US currencies. Buy real properties in Thailand this year while prices are still on the down trend to preserve your wealth that are in these currencies.

What risk ending up with an albatross you may not be able to resell for a long time because Thai's don't like buying secondhand?

Edited April 2, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

My rationale for a quicker recovery than you might expect is based on my dealings with major industrial manufacturers (which is where I spend most of my time) who are, even in the current climate, establishing new manufacturing plants in Thailand. I can't disclose who or too many details as its sensitive information right now, but they are proceeding despite all the political problems, and current economic turbulence.

The firms I am dealing with (from Australia and Europe) are struggling with high costs in their home markets, and lagging sales, so they are making the tough decision to off shore.

Shifting operations here in order to reduce their operating expenses, and take advantage of other investment privileges, can result in some drastic savings, and for some it might mean the difference between survival and collapse.

Labour costs are the reasons most often cited, one of these major manufacturers gave me a very vivid example. A trained welder in Denmark costs 150,000 Baht a month, the same can be had here for less than 20,000. The same comparisons can be made in Australia, who also have the benefit of the FTA.

Dont get me wrong, I do believe that exports will continue to weaken in light of weakened western demand and that many existing firms will operate at reduced capacity and some may even close, however I expect that Thailand will attract FDI as an offshoring trend gathers steam. This will help strengthen Thailand's fiscal position, and support export numbers.

quiksilva I can't for one minute see how you merely giving examples of

some major manufacturers that may be moving to Thailand supports your statement

" but I also believe that we will emerge from this quicker than you expect "?

I thought you might have an enlightening angle regarding one of the many problems the G20 leaders are

now confronting whereas your response proves absolutely nothing !

And there is even less connection between this and any possible improvement in the

condominium market in the Metropolitan area. Even if you told me that there were several

hundred foreign companies looking at Bangkok right now ( and let us completely ignore the competition

for other destinations such as India and China ) - that would still only translate into a very small

number of potential executive tenants or possible buyers for the huge number of

condos near the city centre because many would probably prefer to live

near the factory areas anyway. So back to the question -where are all the other

purchasers for these empty condominiums going to come from?

My response was to your question as to why I felt Thailand might recover faster than you expect, as you very well know.

Are you seriously suggesting that increased FDI will not help Thailand on the path to recovery?

Ps good idea about ignoring competition from India and China because nobody ever sets up a factory in Thailand if they have ever seen what's on offer there right? LOL

[trogers]

What risk ending up with an albatross you may not be able to resell for a long time because Thai's don't like buying secondhand? <img src="style_emoticons/default/huh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="huh.gif"

That's where the opportunity is at. Foreigners would not buy local quota as well. Let the cash rich Thais invest in their own way, and give us expats big leeway to invest on old or new condo that has greatest yield potential.

[midas]

Are you seriously suggesting that increased FDI will not help Thailand on the path to recovery?

It means absolutely bugger all if people in the countries to which Thailand exports

are not spending money because they can't get credit or they are worried

about losing their jobs ( eg Bonds in your example )

and how can any of us possibly know how many more jobs there are still to go?

I hope you are not suggesting Thailand can rely on domestic consumption?

Ps good idea about ignoring competition from India and China because nobody ever sets up a factory in Thailand if they have ever seen what's on offer there right? LOL

keep dreaming quicksilva- it's not just India and China- Vietnam and Malaysia are quite viable alternatives to Thailand

for manufacturing.

Edited April 2, 2009 by midas

[midas]

What risk ending up with an albatross you may not be able to resell for a long time because Thai's don't like buying secondhand? <img src="style_emoticons/default/huh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="huh.gif"

That's where the opportunity is at. Foreigners would not buy local quota as well. Let the cash rich Thais invest in their own way, and give us expats big leeway to invest on old or new condo that has greatest yield potential.

But you still haven't addressed the problem of resale. Who will be the potential buyers?

[mjohnson282]

Are you seriously suggesting that increased FDI will not help Thailand on the path to recovery?

It means absolutely bugger all if people in the countries to which Thailand exports

are not spending money because they can't get credit or they are worried

about losing their jobs ( eg Bonds in your example )

and how can any of us possibly know how many more jobs there are still to go?

I hope you are not suggesting Thailand can rely on domestic consumption?

Ps good idea about ignoring competition from India and China because nobody ever sets up a factory in Thailand if they have ever seen what's on offer there right? LOL

keep dreaming quicksilva- it's not just India and China- Vietnam and Malaysia are quite viable alternatives to Thailand

for manufacturing.

[quiksilva]

Are you seriously suggesting that increased FDI will not help Thailand on the path to recovery?

It means absolutely bugger all if people in the countries to which Thailand exports

are not spending money because they can't get credit or they are worried about losing their jobs ( eg Bonds in your example )

and how can any of us possibly know how many more jobs there are still to go? I hope you are not suggesting Thailand can rely on domestic consumption?

You don't really get my point do you? Some products ALWAYS sell. Drugs, consumer products are examples which you will be familiar with, as well as too many industrial products to mention.

The premise is simple. If a company makes widgets and sells widgets in country A, but moves to Country B so they can continue their business albeit at a lower cost, they will now be exporting products to Country A, so they can stay in business even if their consumers buy less of their widgets than before.

The good news continues because this will be an entirely new export product for Country B and more exports is a good thing for Country B.

Ps good idea about ignoring competition from India and China because nobody ever sets up a factory in Thailand if they have ever seen what's on offer there right? LOL

keep dreaming quicksilva- it's not just India and China- Vietnam and Malaysia are quite viable alternatives to Thailand

for manufacturing.

and yet firms still choose to establish their factories in Thailand over all other alternatives, others might opt for those countries but the FACT is many still choose here.

Edited April 2, 2009 by quiksilva

[mjohnson282]

Are you seriously suggesting that increased FDI will not help Thailand on the path to recovery?

It means absolutely bugger all if people in the countries to which Thailand exports

are not spending money because they can't get credit or they are worried

about losing their jobs ( eg Bonds in your example )

and how can any of us possibly know how many more jobs there are still to go?

I hope you are not suggesting Thailand can rely on domestic consumption?

Ps good idea about ignoring competition from India and China because nobody ever sets up a factory in Thailand if they have ever seen what's on offer there right? LOL

keep dreaming quicksilva- it's not just India and China- Vietnam and Malaysia are quite viable alternatives to Thailand

for manufacturing.

FDI is expanding in Thailand but contracting everywhere else? Thats a good one. Money supply and credit are contracting at an unprecedented rate but not in that last bastion of economic growth the stable country of Thailand. No geo political risk here! If you are truly advising companies about relocating here, and I am more than a bit skeptical, I wish I had their names because they would be at the top of my short only list. I have one word for the companies. REFUND. The first thing any company considers when expanding is the potical climate.

It amazes me how seriously naive people are in regards to this downturn. No doubt you were one of the guys pounding the table and talking on about decoupling early last year.

The idea that rich Thais sit on vacant units until the market turns is a great grassy knoll theory. If that were the case they would certainly not be rich for very long.

[quiksilva]

I see you haven't bothered to give up selective reading, let me know when you do.

FDI continues to flow, and off shoring is a very real trend because, and I can appreciate that this might be a difficult concept for you, but companies like saving money in recessions... crazy eh? They should all just stay put right and go bankrupt at home right?

What you guys have missed is that crux of my rationale depends on whether there will be enough inbound FDI to make up for lost exports, and nobody knows the answer to that question. I certainly dont and neither do you, not for sure, but I do believe that more and more firms will continue to offshore to save money and that will result in new factory opening in Thailand, and other low cost manufacturing bases.

It will not be a very popular trend in those countries that face increased factory closures, thats for sure, but it will help countries like Thailand. Will it help enough though?

Who knows.

As to your last statement, you were obviously not around here trying to buy condos in the aftermath of 1997 were you?

Edited April 2, 2009 by quiksilva

[mjohnson282]

I see you haven't bothered to give up selective reading, let me know when you do.

A broken clock is right two times a day. I think it has a better forecasting ability than you.

[ray08]

In regards to empty units , what i find very strange is people who bought off the plan say 2 years ago, eg ,MET ,Infinity,

etc, and now in in this down market are trying to sell at a 30% plus profit , surely they would be happy to get their money back ,and Infinity asking something like THb 120k per month for a 120sq metre unit.

The market here defies logic , in regards to rentals ,if my OS properties are on the market for more than 3 weeks i have panic attacks and drop the price ,have not seen that yet over here, with the number of expats being called back home we are going to see plenty more empty properties ,But lower asking prices for sales and rents ,yet to happen ,eventually something has to give ,

I beleive the new projects are in deep trouble because the speculators or have not moved their current stock will not be looking to add fuel to the fire by buying up more

[quiksilva]

I see you haven't bothered to give up selective reading, let me know when you do.

A broken clock is right two times a day. I think it has a better forecasting ability than you.

I love you too

[midas]

]You don't really get my point do you? Some products ALWAYS sell. Drugs, consumer products are examples which you will be familiar with, as well as too many industrial products to mention.

The premise is simple. If a company makes widgets and sells widgets in country A, but moves to Country B so they can continue their business albeit at a lower cost, they will now be exporting products to Country A, so they can stay in business even if their consumers buy less of their widgets than before.

The good news continues because this will be an entirely new export product for Country B and more exports is a good thing for Country B.

Give me a break! How many of those drugs, consumer products etc

are unique only to Thailand. They are also being made in other developing countries

all around the world ? Thailand doesnt have a monopoly on these products

and what would they contribute to the GDP ?

You do yourself such injustice quicksilva because I always thought you were

above some of the other real estate " spivs " that post their totally self-serving

but unsupported comments in this forum.

But at the end of the day you're no different to Jim Cramer on CNBC who told everyone

with such sincerity to keep buying Bear Stearns.

[quiksilva]

Midas, you disappoint me too. How can you be so narrow minded in pursuit of your point?

Products are made in Thailand, some are for the domestic market, some are bound exclusively for export, some factories making these products here serve both.

They could be drugs, food, or all sorts of industrial products, components and materials. It does not have to to be EXCLUSIVE to Thailand, different export only factories serve different markets, very rarely will a firm have only one factory serving every market in the world.

Its a mixed bag, shades of grey. I surely don't need to point that out to you do I? I thought better of my favourite sparring partner. Your comments are usually better reasoned than that, or perhaps you just want some love too?

[midas]

In regards to empty units , what i find very strange is people who bought off the plan say 2 years ago, eg ,MET ,Infinity,

etc, and now in in this down market are trying to sell at a 30% plus profit , surely they would be happy to get their money back ,and Infinity asking something like THb 120k per month for a 120sq metre unit.

ray it may be not that strange if these owners are being given completely misleading and wrong

advice by so-called property " experts " and being told that things will be back to normal in no time

[midas]

Midas, you disappoint me too. How can you be so narrow minded in pursuit of your point?

Products are made in Thailand, some are for the domestic market, some are bound exclusively for export, some factories making these products here serve both.

They could be drugs, food, or all sorts of industrial products, components and materials. It does not have to to be EXCLUSIVE to Thailand, different export only factories serve different markets, very rarely will a firm have only one factory serving every market in the world.

Its a mixed bag, shades of grey. I surely don't need to point that out to you do I? I thought better of my favourite sparring partner. Your comments are usually better reasoned than that, or perhaps you just want some love too?

This is too much off topic so you need to relate all this to how and when this will affect

all the empty condominiums in this city?

[trogers]

What risk ending up with an albatross you may not be able to resell for a long time because Thai's don't like buying secondhand? <img src="style_emoticons/default/huh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="huh.gif"

That's where the opportunity is at. Foreigners would not buy local quota as well. Let the cash rich Thais invest in their own way, and give us expats big leeway to invest on old or new condo that has greatest yield potential.

But you still haven't addressed the problem of resale. Who will be the potential buyers?

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

[ray08]

In regards to empty units , what i find very strange is people who bought off the plan say 2 years ago, eg ,MET ,Infinity,

etc, and now in in this down market are trying to sell at a 30% plus profit , surely they would be happy to get their money back ,and Infinity asking something like THb 120k per month for a 120sq metre unit.

ray it may be not that strange if these owners are being given completely misleading and wrong

advice by so-called property " experts " and being told that things will be back to normal in no time

When i sell a property we normally have a night viewing and a day viewing , them my real estate agent sends me the feedback for the viewings and any interest or contracts called for , same when i rent after the open days my agent again sends me the number of people that went through and any offers etc.

In the end an owner must know himself what is happening in the market , The agent can only give

advice ,but that advive must be backed up by facts , no good saying you can get X amount and them leave a property unsold or empty for 6 -12 months .

I think a few of these owners are living in fantasy land.

[mjohnson282]

What risk ending up with an albatross you may not be able to resell for a long time because Thai's don't like buying secondhand? <img src="style_emoticons/default/huh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="" border="0" alt="huh.gif"

That's where the opportunity is at. Foreigners would not buy local quota as well. Let the cash rich Thais invest in their own way, and give us expats big leeway to invest on old or new condo that has greatest yield potential.

But you still haven't addressed the problem of resale. Who will be the potential buyers?

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

Ok come back in 12 years. No doubt the Japanese said the same thing, just pick a year out of the last 20.

For now and the foreseeable future the trend in real estate is down in Thailand. I wonder how many buyers leveraged their existing home to purchase a unit or units off plan? Are they holding on, hope is a hard thing to let go, but let it go it hurts when you are holding a falling knife. Seems like there is a lot of hope for real estate speculators in BKK. Some people are about to become intimate with the greater fool theory.

Anecdotally, I can take a walk to the trash closet and look into a recently completed building which from the street level exterior appears completely finished. It was completed later in the cycle after sales slowed considerably. I am guessing this building is at best 10% occupied. Funny, you talk to the staff and they tell you there are only a few units left. Better buy now as the prices are likely to go up. I guess the "rich Thai" owners like to put newspaper up in their windows. They also seem to care very little about the unfinished common areas.

Some people in this forum would have you believe the most fundamental rules of supply and demand do not matter in Thailand real estate. The addition to supply in the condo market over the past 5 years has been substantial. I seem to recall reading it was in excess of the of 50%. This does not include new construction in the serviced apartment sector which are also competing for the non owner occupied yield.

A cyclical sector in every economy is impervious to the downturn. Real estate values only go up. Ah, the underlying thesis of the subprime issuers. Apparently if supply exceeds demand price will not adjust in Thailand because there are "rich Thais" that sit on empty units until the market recovers.

If the rich Thais do not save the market you have companies relocating to Thailand to reduce their labor costs. FDI will rule the day in Thailand as companies relocate here and bypass all the other cheap labor countries.

If you can not see the obvious signs of stress in this market you are totally myopic. Maybe it helps you sleep better at night so good for you. Just keep telling yourself real estate values only go up.

[midas]

Some people in this forum would have you believe the most fundamental rules of supply and demand do not matter in Thailand real estate. The addition to supply in the condo market over the past 5 years has been substantial. I seem to recall reading it was in excess of the of 50%. This does not include new construction in the serviced apartment sector which are also competing for the non owner occupied yield.

A cyclical sector in every economy is impervious to the downturn. Real estate values only go up. Ah, the underlying thesis of the subprime issuers. Apparently if supply exceeds demand price will not adjust in Thailand because there are "rich Thais" that sit on empty units until the market recovers.

If the rich Thais do not save the market you have companies relocating to Thailand to reduce their labor costs. FDI will rule the day in Thailand as companies relocate here and bypass all the other cheap labor countries.

If you can not see the obvious signs of stress in this market you are totally myopic. Maybe it helps you sleep better at night so good for you. Just keep telling yourself real estate values only go up.

That's precisely why I always consider Thailand to be a very fun place to live

but as far as investing in real estate-its Disneyland.

[trogers]

Ok come back in 12 years. No doubt the Japanese said the same thing, just pick a year out of the last 20.

For now and the foreseeable future the trend in real estate is down in Thailand. I wonder how many buyers leveraged their existing home to purchase a unit or units off plan? Are they holding on, hope is a hard thing to let go, but let it go it hurts when you are holding a falling knife. Seems like there is a lot of hope for real estate speculators in BKK. Some people are about to become intimate with the greater fool theory.

Anecdotally, I can take a walk to the trash closet and look into a recently completed building which from the street level exterior appears completely finished. It was completed later in the cycle after sales slowed considerably. I am guessing this building is at best 10% occupied. Funny, you talk to the staff and they tell you there are only a few units left. Better buy now as the prices are likely to go up. I guess the "rich Thai" owners like to put newspaper up in their windows. They also seem to care very little about the unfinished common areas.

Some people in this forum would have you believe the most fundamental rules of supply and demand do not matter in Thailand real estate. The addition to supply in the condo market over the past 5 years has been substantial. I seem to recall reading it was in excess of the of 50%. This does not include new construction in the serviced apartment sector which are also competing for the non owner occupied yield.

A cyclical sector in every economy is impervious to the downturn. Real estate values only go up. Ah, the underlying thesis of the subprime issuers. Apparently if supply exceeds demand price will not adjust in Thailand because there are "rich Thais" that sit on empty units until the market recovers.

If the rich Thais do not save the market you have companies relocating to Thailand to reduce their labor costs. FDI will rule the day in Thailand as companies relocate here and bypass all the other cheap labor countries.

If you can not see the obvious signs of stress in this market you are totally myopic. Maybe it helps you sleep better at night so good for you. Just keep telling yourself real estate values only go up.

You can do your surveys and make graphs and analytical calculations.

My own family's experience - bought a house for $180,000 and sold it almost 30 years later for $2.5m, with a major refurbishment 12 years before selling. Try better that with an investment of similar risk.

A project where I was a consultant, a Thai lady in her 50s came to the sales office, study through the show unit, and offered to book 3 units. The sales team can only offer one unit, due to policy to weed out speculation. She came back the next day with her 3 children and explained she wants to book each child a unit. She got her 3 units.

[midas]

My own family's experience - bought a house for $180,000 and sold it almost 30 years later for $2.5m, with a major refurbishment 12 years before selling. Try better that with an investment of similar risk.

A project where I was a consultant, a Thai lady in her 50s came to the sales office, study through the show unit, and offered to book 3 units. The sales team can only offer one unit, due to policy to weed out speculation. She came back the next day with her 3 children and explained she wants to book each child a unit. She got her 3 units.

you go ahead and put your trust in inflation and lots of money sloshing around

the system as you put it in another thread and jolly good luck to you!

[hhgz]

"I can see all the empty units on soi 24 from my window. Some nights it looks like a gost town."

That's because most of the buildings don't have any tenants yet. Most of the new construction started 3 years ago, and the buildings are just being completed.

[trogers]

"I can see all the empty units on soi 24 from my window. Some nights it looks like a gost town."

That's because most of the buildings don't have any tenants yet. Most of the new construction started 3 years ago, and the buildings are just being completed.

Not completely true. A few projects completed since last year or the year before are also poorly occupied (less than 40% occupancy).

Reason is probably due to many expats staying in the soi has either been sent back or given reduced allowance, and asking rents are still too high.

See this: http://www.prakard.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=120765

[quiksilva]

Ok come back in 12 years. No doubt the Japanese said the same thing, just pick a year out of the last 20.

For now and the foreseeable future the trend in real estate is down in Thailand. I wonder how many buyers leveraged their existing home to purchase a unit or units off plan? Are they holding on, hope is a hard thing to let go, but let it go it hurts when you are holding a falling knife. Seems like there is a lot of hope for real estate speculators in BKK. Some people are about to become intimate with the greater fool theory.

Anecdotally, I can take a walk to the trash closet and look into a recently completed building which from the street level exterior appears completely finished. It was completed later in the cycle after sales slowed considerably. I am guessing this building is at best 10% occupied. Funny, you talk to the staff and they tell you there are only a few units left. Better buy now as the prices are likely to go up. I guess the "rich Thai" owners like to put newspaper up in their windows. They also seem to care very little about the unfinished common areas.

Some people in this forum would have you believe the most fundamental rules of supply and demand do not matter in Thailand real estate. The addition to supply in the condo market over the past 5 years has been substantial. I seem to recall reading it was in excess of the of 50%. This does not include new construction in the serviced apartment sector which are also competing for the non owner occupied yield.

A cyclical sector in every economy is impervious to the downturn. Real estate values only go up. Ah, the underlying thesis of the subprime issuers. Apparently if supply exceeds demand price will not adjust in Thailand because there are "rich Thais" that sit on empty units until the market recovers.

If the rich Thais do not save the market you have companies relocating to Thailand to reduce their labor costs. FDI will rule the day in Thailand as companies relocate here and bypass all the other cheap labor countries.

If you can not see the obvious signs of stress in this market you are totally myopic. Maybe it helps you sleep better at night so good for you. Just keep telling yourself real estate values only go up.

OMFG so selective reading and misinterpretation raise their ugly head once more. **bangs head against wall**

I understand that you want to argue and disagree with everything I say, I'm the evil property guy after all, bottom of the food chain eh? I understand that you want to believe that I am talking the market up, but what I dont understand is how you have come to that conclusuion when I have stated the opposite.

Seeing as I can no longer rely on some to interpret my position correctly, perhaps I should simplify my position, using smaller words... here goes.....

Its bad, it will get worse, and then it will get better, slowly at first and then pick up pace. This applies to the economy and Bangkok condo prices (values too if there are many foreclosures or distressed sales which we may see more in the future but haven't seen yet).

Clear enough for you?

Ok now for some more detail --

Recently I have been asked why I think it will get better. I rationalise that opinion, partly because I know that Thailand (just like lots of other countries) can offer savings to firms operating in markets where labour and other costs are much more expensive , lots and lots of lovely savings that are so delicously tempting that some of those firms will close those expensive factories and move overseas to places like Thailand and lots of other similar places too.

This will upset expensive manual labour in those home markets, just like those poor 300 Kiwis who lost their jobs today as Fisher & Paykel ceased operations in their home country and relocated here, lock, stock and barrel.

Movements like these will help cheaper markets like Thailand, but its not a magic bullet (it will not solve all their woes) but it will help these countries, a lot. Of course the global financial system needs to be repaired and refurbished, and Thailand in particular needs to get its political problems sorted out and ensure stability, in order to capture as much of these FDI flows as possible.

This will not be easy, but attracting some of these firms is very important to recovery because it might lift exports or at the very least soften the blow of falling trade of existing export products...

hmmmm how to get that back on topic.... oOne day off in the distant future, perhaps sooner than Midas believes, financial systems will get the treatment they need and credit will start to slowly flow in much more measured rates again and demand will recover, albeit very slowly, and the performance of firms will gradually increase, lifting stock markets, creating wealth and confidence, which will lead to more demand for condo's in Bangkok and beyond (not that I care much about them anyway as I am a commercial property guy).

Hmmm yup, thats about it.

Edited April 2, 2009 by quiksilva

[ace]

How can anyone be bullish on FDI?

Is this 2007?

FDI is off a cliff - globally, Thailand included. FWIW I own property in Thailand and am long term optimistic about Thailand. Long term.

[quiksilva]

FDI has declined but has it stopped? Of course not.

Off a cliff, disappeared, bull, bear, red, blue,

Why must everyone be so stuck on absolutes?

Edited April 3, 2009 by quiksilva

[trogers]

It's not only Sukhumvit 24, it's the same where I live ( Sathorn/Silom).

Most condos have between 10 and 20% units lit up at night .

My client just moved from Sathorn (Suan Plu) to my condo unit in Sukhumvit 24. If rental rates in Soi 24 fall, less units will be lit up at Sathorn...

[quiksilva]

FDI has declined but has it stopped? Of course not.

Off a cliff, disappeared, bull, bear, red, blue,

Why must everyone be so stuck on absolutes?

I just want to add, for the sake of context, that the only timeframe I have stated is ""faster than Midas expects", who for the record has stated elsewhere that he expects the downturn to last for 20 years or may never recover, which I find preposterous, but hey to each their own.