Empty Condo Units In Bangkok

[midas]

I just want to add, for the sake of context, that the only timeframe I have stated is ""faster than Midas expects", who for the record has stated elsewhere that he expects the downturn to last for 20 years or may never recover, which I find preposterous, but hey to each their own.

quicksilva who is the one incorrectly quoting people this morning?

I never said anything so ridiculous that there would never be a recovery.

I said we may have to be ready for a totally different set of circumstances

when any recovery does begin ( which seems far off right now ) because I have an open mind

UNLIKE YOU ! . Yes I am open to the possibility we could

feel the effects of this downturn for up to 20 years- and precisely what I meant

by that is that it could take that long for the irrational exuberance of the past in real

estate to return for a whole host of reasons and particularly when I read even today

about the still unresolved problems of the US banking system.

[quiksilva]

Apologies this is your quote, which I still feel is preposterous.

To answer to your question I believe that what is happening now is much larger and very different from a normal

recession because this financial crisis happens to coincide also with many other significant geopolitical changes

that will continue to unfold and it is my view property values will continue to go down from current levels

and then remain stagnant for at least 20 years. ohmy.gif

For those who have trouble with interpretations of a written statement: I think we will see a faster recovery in values and the economy than what you expect for the reasons I have stated.

Full stop, end of story.

Does this mean that I am not concerned about the current situation, of course not. You would be insane to be a complete bull now. (Is that plain enough?).

My mind is open to all types of theories, but after consideration I will dismiss those which I seem most unlikely, fake moon landings, faked 9-11 tapes, secret illuminati sects controlling world powers etc I wouldn't say the 20 years of stagnant property values in Thailand falls quite into the same category, but there is not sufficient evidence to support that theory, so I do not feel I am being overly optimistic nor closed minded to believe that a recovery in values will happen sooner than this timescale. Even then that can only happen once the sector has cooled off, even further, which will take a while, its started but its hasn't happened yet.

[ernest1966]

Comparing prices of 30+ years ago is nonsense. Everyone knows you will never be able to buy a house for the prices you could find in the early 80's (pre-house-boom).

My ex-wfes parents bought they house for 27K sterling. It's worth 1million (even now). Will it ever go back to 27K , no.

But you do have down turns, collapses etc, where a property can lose 50-70% of its value. For example the aforementioned house has lost 33%. It was worth 1.5mill. Im only 43, but i have seen 3 so far, this will be my 4th and a biggie.

But where prices are already unrealistic, demand inflated, a crap currency with nothing to back it up, a tourist industry in recession, a goverment fighting for its life, corrupt politicians, a workforce that is barely literate (and one that can never compete with india), exports killed off, people selling their second holiday home in a vain effort to to keep the wolf from breaking down the door on their first home and you get people in "the industry" trying to keep their jobs and talking up the thai real estate market.

what utter nonsense

for every person buying a a property in thailand, there's gonna be a 100 trying to get out now

ride the wave , its on its way out

Ernest

[trogers]

Comparing prices of 30+ years ago is nonsense. Everyone knows you will never be able to buy a house for the prices you could find in the early 80's (pre-house-boom).

My ex-wfes parents bought they house for 27K sterling. It's worth 1million (even now). Will it ever go back to 27K , no.

But you do have down turns, collapses etc, where a property can lose 50-70% of its value. For example the aforementioned house has lost 33%. It was worth 1.5mill. Im only 43, but i have seen 3 so far, this will be my 4th and a biggie.

But where prices are already unrealistic, demand inflated, a crap currency with nothing to back it up, a tourist industry in recession, a goverment fighting for its life, corrupt politicians, a workforce that is barely literate (and one that can never compete with india), exports killed off, people selling their second holiday home in a vain effort to to keep the wolf from breaking down the door on their first home and you get people in "the industry" trying to keep their jobs and talking up the thai real estate market.

what utter nonsense

for every person buying a a property in thailand, there's gonna be a 100 trying to get out now

ride the wave , its on its way out

Ernest

And so you wait for the next peak, where 100 are buying and only one is selling...

Investment in real estate cannot be in the short term with high leverage. If so, it is not investment but gambling...

[midas]

My mind is open to all types of theories, but after consideration I will dismiss those which I seem most unlikely, fake moon landings, faked 9-11 tapes, secret illuminati sects controlling world powers etc I wouldn't say the 20 years of stagnant property values in Thailand falls quite into the same category, but there is not sufficient evidence to support that theory, so I do not feel I am being overly optimistic nor closed minded to believe that a recovery in values will happen sooner than this timescale. Even then that can only happen once the sector has cooled off, even further, which will take a while, its started but its hasn't happened yet.

Yes well this is what we have come to expect from an estate agent.

excuse me if I don't listen to people like you because it's the same old salesmanship crap

I prefer to rely on the opinion of people like Simon Johnson, ( professor at MIT's Sloan

School of Management, and chief economist at the International Monetary Fund during 2007 and 2008 )

When you hear what this guy says you realise just how utterly sick the financial system is................

And I suggest for the sake of the people who are relying on your " advice " quicksilva that you

try to expand your outlook and try to learn beyond what you think will happen in the Thailand

real estate market :-

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

[ernest1966]

trogers

I never said sell now. That's stupid, you lose to much money.

The problem with thailand is the mentality, sure there is money to be made. The problem with the thai property market is thailand. People still think they can sell their properties for a profit and think that everything is ok. That's just plain stupid. When it hits its going to hit these peole hard. I bough a flat in the UK at pretty much the middle of the 90's recession, for under 50k sold it for 130k 3 years ago.

Where its gonna hurt is all the idiots who bought/still buying at full wack, lol.

Ernest

(last one out, shut the door)

[mjohnson282]

Ok come back in 12 years. No doubt the Japanese said the same thing, just pick a year out of the last 20.

For now and the foreseeable future the trend in real estate is down in Thailand. I wonder how many buyers leveraged their existing home to purchase a unit or units off plan? Are they holding on, hope is a hard thing to let go, but let it go it hurts when you are holding a falling knife. Seems like there is a lot of hope for real estate speculators in BKK. Some people are about to become intimate with the greater fool theory.

Anecdotally, I can take a walk to the trash closet and look into a recently completed building which from the street level exterior appears completely finished. It was completed later in the cycle after sales slowed considerably. I am guessing this building is at best 10% occupied. Funny, you talk to the staff and they tell you there are only a few units left. Better buy now as the prices are likely to go up. I guess the "rich Thai" owners like to put newspaper up in their windows. They also seem to care very little about the unfinished common areas.

Some people in this forum would have you believe the most fundamental rules of supply and demand do not matter in Thailand real estate. The addition to supply in the condo market over the past 5 years has been substantial. I seem to recall reading it was in excess of the of 50%. This does not include new construction in the serviced apartment sector which are also competing for the non owner occupied yield.

A cyclical sector in every economy is impervious to the downturn. Real estate values only go up. Ah, the underlying thesis of the subprime issuers. Apparently if supply exceeds demand price will not adjust in Thailand because there are "rich Thais" that sit on empty units until the market recovers.

If the rich Thais do not save the market you have companies relocating to Thailand to reduce their labor costs. FDI will rule the day in Thailand as companies relocate here and bypass all the other cheap labor countries.

If you can not see the obvious signs of stress in this market you are totally myopic. Maybe it helps you sleep better at night so good for you. Just keep telling yourself real estate values only go up.

OMFG so selective reading and misinterpretation raise their ugly head once more. **bangs head against wall**

I understand that you want to argue and disagree with everything I say, I'm the evil property guy after all, bottom of the food chain eh? I understand that you want to believe that I am talking the market up, but what I dont understand is how you have come to that conclusuion when I have stated the opposite.

Seeing as I can no longer rely on some to interpret my position correctly, perhaps I should simplify my position, using smaller words... here goes.....

Its bad, it will get worse, and then it will get better, slowly at first and then pick up pace. This applies to the economy and Bangkok condo prices (values too if there are many foreclosures or distressed sales which we may see more in the future but haven't seen yet).

Clear enough for you?

Ok now for some more detail --

Recently I have been asked why I think it will get better. I rationalise that opinion, partly because I know that Thailand (just like lots of other countries) can offer savings to firms operating in markets where labour and other costs are much more expensive , lots and lots of lovely savings that are so delicously tempting that some of those firms will close those expensive factories and move overseas to places like Thailand and lots of other similar places too.

This will upset expensive manual labour in those home markets, just like those poor 300 Kiwis who lost their jobs today as Fisher & Paykel ceased operations in their home country and relocated here, lock, stock and barrel.

Movements like these will help cheaper markets like Thailand, but its not a magic bullet (it will not solve all their woes) but it will help these countries, a lot. Of course the global financial system needs to be repaired and refurbished, and Thailand in particular needs to get its political problems sorted out and ensure stability, in order to capture as much of these FDI flows as possible.

This will not be easy, but attracting some of these firms is very important to recovery because it might lift exports or at the very least soften the blow of falling trade of existing export products...

hmmmm how to get that back on topic.... oOne day off in the distant future, perhaps sooner than Midas believes, financial systems will get the treatment they need and credit will start to slowly flow in much more measured rates again and demand will recover, albeit very slowly, and the performance of firms will gradually increase, lifting stock markets, creating wealth and confidence, which will lead to more demand for condo's in Bangkok and beyond (not that I care much about them anyway as I am a commercial property guy).

Hmmm yup, thats about it.

Please bang you head more often eventually something will come out worth reading.

Ok now I got it. Real estate brokers are notoriously optimistic with only the slightest level of analysis to support their thesis. A welder costs less in Thailand as compared to Denmark. I have to read your posts more often so I can plan my day. FDI and one company relocating 300 people here. Brilliant.

One day off in the distant future it’s going to get better, perhaps sooner that midas thinks. To think that some people might actually have to pay for this analysis and here we get it for free. A broken clock twice a day is more accurate and insightful.

Supply exceeds demand. In the condominium sector new additions to supply have been substantial with more inventory under construction. The total inventory upon completion of this cycle will result in an approximate 50% addition to overall supply. Further compounding this problem is the serviced apartment and hospitality construction, which has also increased substantially over the past 3-4 years.

Demand has declined substantially in the past year. The condo market is not just faced with an oversupply/inventory problem it could eventually resolve through absorption. Global credit contraction on an unprecedented level, spiking unemployment, and competitive devaluation are all part of this extra ordinary downturn. This is not just a typical cyclical downturn a fact that should be obvious by now. The severity and duration of this contraction have been consistently underestimated.

In order to attract revenue hotels will likely get aggressive in regards to pricing of extended stay programs thereby impairing the serviced apartment sector. Serviced apartments and hotels are revenue driven and will reduce asking rents to meet demand and drive occupancy. They are all competing for the same pound, dollar, yen, baht..etc.

This will impair the yield of the individual condo and drive down the value of that condo as an investment vehicle. If you are an owner occupant and happy where you live this will not matter. If you are a speculator, buying condos off plan to sell later or an absentee owner looking for yield I suspect it will matter a great deal. While some maintain there are rich Thais holding vacant units for capital gain remember that people’s situation may change. It is likely some of these people will need liquidity and they will become forced sellers. It happens everywhere and Thailand is no exception.

My opinion, this downturn is severe and an optimistic scenario suggests it will take 3 years to work through. In reality I think it might take much longer.

[trogers]

Please bang you head more often eventually something will come out worth reading.

Ok now I got it. Real estate brokers are notoriously optimistic with only the slightest level of analysis to support their thesis. A welder costs less in Thailand as compared to Denmark. I have to read your posts more often so I can plan my day. FDI and one company relocating 300 people here. Brilliant.

One day off in the distant future it's going to get better, perhaps sooner that midas thinks. To think that some people might actually have to pay for this analysis and here we get it for free. A broken clock twice a day is more accurate and insightful.

Supply exceeds demand. In the condominium sector new additions to supply have been substantial with more inventory under construction. The total inventory upon completion of this cycle will result in an approximate 50% addition to overall supply. Further compounding this problem is the serviced apartment and hospitality construction, which has also increased substantially over the past 3-4 years.

Demand has declined substantially in the past year. The condo market is not just faced with an oversupply/inventory problem it could eventually resolve through absorption. Global credit contraction on an unprecedented level, spiking unemployment, and competitive devaluation are all part of this extra ordinary downturn. This is not just a typical cyclical downturn a fact that should be obvious by now. The severity and duration of this contraction have been consistently underestimated.

In order to attract revenue hotels will likely get aggressive in regards to pricing of extended stay programs thereby impairing the serviced apartment sector. Serviced apartments and hotels are revenue driven and will reduce asking rents to meet demand and drive occupancy. They are all competing for the same pound, dollar, yen, baht..etc.

This will impair the yield of the individual condo and drive down the value of that condo as an investment vehicle. If you are an owner occupant and happy where you live this will not matter. If you are a speculator, buying condos off plan to sell later or an absentee owner looking for yield I suspect it will matter a great deal. While some maintain there are rich Thais holding vacant units for capital gain remember that people's situation may change. It is likely some of these people will need liquidity and they will become forced sellers. It happens everywhere and Thailand is no exception.

My opinion, this downturn is severe and an optimistic scenario suggests it will take 3 years to work through. In reality I think it might take much longer.

And investors like me are wringing hands, awaiting in foreclosure auctions to pick up desired units at firesale prices.

Then let the hotels and service apartments try meeting my rental prices.

[Scott123]

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

you recover your initial capital investment with your rental income for 15-20 years (if you are so lucky there is no interruption of rent and no major damage), and after 15-20 years you are left with a rubbish property that nobody wants. (Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand).

But if you put your initial capital in a bank, you not only have the principle, but you also get the gaurantee bank interest.

Edited April 3, 2009 by Scott123

[trogers]

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

you recover your initial capital investment with your rental income for 15-20 years, and you are left with a rubbish property that nobody wants. (Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand).

But if you put your initial capital in a bank, you not only have the principle, but you get the gaurantee bank interest.

What is the price of residential land in soi 24, 200m from the BTS station? My condo is sitting on 2 rai and my share of it is 1%. Extend this 15 years into the future.

[Scott123]

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

you recover your initial capital investment with your rental income for 15-20 years, and you are left with a rubbish property that nobody wants. (Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand).

But if you put your initial capital in a bank, you not only have the principle, but you get the gaurantee bank interest.

What is the price of residential land in soi 24, 200m from the BTS station? My condo is sitting on 2 rai and my share of it is 1%. Extend this 15 years into the future.

1% of a 2 rai land worth nothing. your fate depends on the other 99% holders. Look at how many rundown old condos in sathorn or sukhumvit, and you will know why.

[trogers]

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

you recover your initial capital investment with your rental income for 15-20 years, and you are left with a rubbish property that nobody wants. (Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand).

But if you put your initial capital in a bank, you not only have the principle, but you get the gaurantee bank interest.

What is the price of residential land in soi 24, 200m from the BTS station? My condo is sitting on 2 rai and my share of it is 1%. Extend this 15 years into the future.

1% of a 2 rai land worth nothing. your fate depends on the other 99% holders. Look at how many rundown old condos in sathorn or sukhumvit, and you will know why.

Tell me these rundown old condos that are located between Asoke and Prakanong (within 100-300m from BTS stations). I want to buy more.

Only conditions: land is freehold, prices not over Bt40,000/m2 and building is low-rise (8 floors).

Should not be too difficult, as they are rundowns.

Edited April 3, 2009 by trogers

[hhgz]

"A few projects completed since last year or the year before are also poorly occupied (less than 40% occupancy)."

Baloney. Name the condominium projects on soi 24 completed within the last two years that have less than 40% occupancy.

[trogers]

"A few projects completed since last year or the year before are also poorly occupied (less than 40% occupancy)."

Baloney. Name the condominium projects on soi 24 completed within the last two years that have less than 40% occupancy.

Try The Residence and Siri Residence.

[Livinginexile]

Not the same where I bought.

I moved in on completion about a year ago, at that time only about half was occupied or in the prosess.

Now all are fitted out and most are occupied, it took a year but I think this is normal in Bkk.

There are nearly 400 condos in my complex, all sold, all fitted out and/or occupied.

Are you located in an undesirable location? are they cheap Thai market condo's?

[trogers]

Not the same where I bought.

I moved in on completion about a year ago, at that time only about half was occupied or in the prosess.

Now all are fitted out and most are occupied, it took a year but I think this is normal in Bkk.

There are nearly 400 condos in my complex, all sold, all fitted out and/or occupied.

Are you located in an undesirable location? are they cheap Thai market condo's?

Where is your condo and what are the rental rates?

[Scott123]

....Should not be too difficult, as they are rundowns.

You concluded your arguement with your own subjective opinion. We all wish you make tons of money from your property investment. So good luck to you.

[midas]

Loan application rejection rate rises sharply

BANGKOK: -- Potential buyers of condominium projects located in the vicinity of the capital’s electric mass transit train routes are experiencing trouble seeking financing from commercial banks as the loan application rejection rate has sharply increased, according to the Government Housing Bank.

Government Housing Bank information centre director Summa Keetasin said more commercial banks had refused to approve loans to condo purchasers although they had already made down payments.

Simultaneously, he said, many condominium developers had postponed the opening of their projects to the third and fourth quarters from the first quarter of this year because financial institutions are stricter in lending.

The centre reported 11 such projects were closing sales more slowly in February due to their liquidity crunch, and were reviewing their investment plans, and adjusting marketing strategy.

In addition, the centre studied the behaviour and profiled 420 present and prospective buyers of condominium projects located in a 2-km radius of the mass transit train routes in metropolitan Bangkok.

The study found 205 interviewees had already purchased condominiums while another 215 planned to buy the condos within one year.

It also found most condo buyers are unmarried, aged between 25-34 years, with a monthly income of Bt20,000-40,000.

The key influential factor for the condo-buying decision is the unit price. Most people are interested in purchasing condos priced at around 1.6-2 million baht with a 30.5-40 square metre space.

-- TNA 2009-04-03

[quiksilva]

Please bang you head more often eventually something will come out worth reading.

Ok now I got it. Real estate brokers are notoriously optimistic with only the slightest level of analysis to support their thesis. A welder costs less in Thailand as compared to Denmark. I have to read your posts more often so I can plan my day. FDI and one example of a company relocating 300 people here. Brilliant.

Here I corrected that for you, and if you still think that low cost manual labour is not a significant factor in a country's economic performance and that foreign firms will not offshore to chase these lower costs then I don't know what to tell you. Further the relationship between economic performance and the condo market should be obvious

One day off in the distant future it’s going to get better, perhaps sooner that midas thinks. To think that some people might actually have to pay for this analysis and here we get it for free.

Hey, you get what you pay for, I wasn't aware I was under any obligation to post detailed analysis for Thai Visa... I never offered an opinion on how long I think this recession was going to last but I did express disagreement with Midas's view of 20 years of stagnation, and was asked to explain my rationale, which I did in brief because you know I actually have stuff to do... amazing eh? A real estate agent who still has work in hand, not that you'd believe it

---------------------

My opinion, this downturn is severe and an optimistic scenario suggests it will take 3 years to work through. In reality I think it might take much longer. Perhaps, perhaps not, the truth is nobody knows, but seriously, 20 years of stagnation? I just don't see it

Edited April 3, 2009 by quiksilva

[quiksilva]

That's where investment in real estate differs from the stock market. I do not invest in the short term. My time horizon will stretch 2 property cycles which would be 15-20 years. By then, I would recover my initial capital outlay from rental income. Ask me this question in 12 year's time.

you recover your initial capital investment with your rental income for 15-20 years (if you are so lucky there is no interruption of rent and no major damage), and after 15-20 years you are left with a rubbish property that nobody wants. (Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand).

But if you put your initial capital in a bank, you not only have the principle, but you also get the gaurantee bank interest.

Err okay and how much interest is the bank paying these days?

I heard that Icelandic banks were paying great rates until recently...

[trogers]

Anyone is free to explain how impossible it is to sell a 10+ year old property in Thailand.

My my...so you investors of new freehold condos, please note that the unit you are getting will be worse than one that is on 30-year leasehold land...

At least with leasehold projects your rubbish junk 30 year old unit will be in the hands of the land owner and not your problem anymore...

[mjohnson282]

Please bang you head more often eventually something will come out worth reading.

Ok now I got it. Real estate brokers are notoriously optimistic with only the slightest level of analysis to support their thesis. A welder costs less in Thailand as compared to Denmark. I have to read your posts more often so I can plan my day. FDI and one example of a company relocating 300 people here. Brilliant.

Here I corrected that for you, and if you still think that low cost manual labour is not a significant factor in a country's economic performance and that foreign firms will not offshore to chase these lower costs then I don't know what to tell you. Further the relationship between economic performance and the condo market should be obvious

One day off in the distant future it’s going to get better, perhaps sooner that midas thinks. To think that some people might actually have to pay for this analysis and here we get it for free.

Hey, you get what you pay for, I wasn't aware I was under any obligation to post detailed analysis for Thai Visa... I never offered an opinion on how long I think this recession was going to last but I did express disagreement with Midas's view of 20 years of stagnation, and was asked to explain my rationale, which I did in brief because you know I actually have stuff to do... amazing eh? A real estate agent who still has work in hand, not that you'd believe it

---------------------

My opinion, this downturn is severe and an optimistic scenario suggests it will take 3 years to work through. In reality I think it might take much longer. Perhaps, perhaps not, the truth is nobody knows, but seriously, 20 years of stagnation? I just don't see it

I am sure the Japanese said the same thing. They never expected their property prices, the Nikkei, the Topix to be at 1990 levels or worse. The housing number is actually worse. The NASDAQ index investor probably thought he would be back at 5000 in a few years.

In regards to companies relocating here once again your analysis is flawed. Employing low cost labor does not drive condo prices in the Bangkok CBD. Perhaps you are not familiar with the income correlation to housing values. No surprise as the whole world seemed to disregard this ratio over the past five years.

20 years does seem like a remote possibility, but as Midas points out it is a possibility or did you forget about the great depression? Check the banking index in the US from the great depression to the 1970s.

[midas]

My opinion, this downturn is severe and an optimistic scenario suggests it will take 3 years to work through. In reality I think it might take much longer. Perhaps, perhaps not, the truth is nobody knows, but seriously, 20 years of stagnation? I just don't see it

I am increasingly astonished each day quicksilva as to how naive you are

considering you are supposed to be an " expert "

I just think you incapable of " joining the dots "

I hope a banker never needs to rely on a property valuation report from you

In Japan’s Stagnant Decade, Cautionary Tales for America

The Japanese have been here before. They endured a “lost decade” of economic stagnation in the 1990s as their banks labored under crippling debt, and successive governments wasted trillions of yen on half-measures.

Only in 2003 did the government finally take the actions that helped lead to a recovery: forcing major banks to submit to merciless audits and declare bad debts; spending two trillion yen to effectively nationalize a major bank, wiping out its shareholders; and allowing weaker banks to fail.

By then, Tokyo’s main Nikkei stock index had lost almost three-quarters of its value. The country’s public debt had grown to exceed its gross domestic product, and deflation stalked the land. In the end, real estate prices fell for 15 consecutive years.

And this happened without the synchronised downturn of all global markets we are seeing now !

More alarming? Some students of the Japanese debacle say they see a similar train wreck heading for the United States. ( and you think that would not affect the Thailand market if this occured ?)

“I thought America had studied Japan’s failures,” said Hirofumi Gomi, a top official at Japan’s Financial Services Agency during the crisis. “Why is it making the same mistakes?”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/29179715

Edited April 3, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

In regards to companies relocating here once again your analysis is flawed. Employing low cost labor does not drive condo prices in the Bangkok CBD.

Once again you demonstrate that you either can not or simply choose to fail to understand my point.

The thing is. I agree with you!!

The low costs of labour does not DIRECTLY drive condo prices, they attract manufacturers. I never said otherwise, recall that i was explaining my rationale, upon request, as to why I felt the economy might recover sooner than 20 years. Offshoring to reduce costs, its nothing new, and hardly what one could call an unreasonable assertion.

You do understand the spill over effect of having a new major manufacturer right? Its not just that factory and its revenues, or the salaries of its new employees right? Its also all those suppliers and service providers who help deliver their product to market. Its not small money. This what Thailand lives off. These frims all get to enjoy benefits of having this new manufacturer in their wake. What happens to them, when they win new projects? Is there say, a chance that some of these might be listed? .... then what happens? Think it through....

I never stated that FDI will be a magic bullet. I said it will help, it will be contributing factor. I have cited examples of where it is already happening, and Im quite sure more will come in the months ahead, but not to expand their market reach, the main purpose will be to survive!

You seem fairly knowledgable, despite the selective reading of my posts, you have managed to read and retain some local property market research on the subject (no doubt written by those you loathe..i.e. my fellow real estate agents), as well as perhaps, what, Case / Schiller? which is more than I can say for some here....

I understand that income correlation argument very well, but as you can hopefully see that we are not talking about the low cost workers as the market for buying these condos are we? I can hardly believe that you jumped to that conclusion, this is a wider view.

It is the spill over effect of additional manufacturing operations, especially exports, that benefits a Nation and eventually contributes to driving them out of recession. IMF advice to a failed State is what? I thought it was usually to reduce imports and export more...

So if existing manufacturers have reduced capacity, as they have here, then Thailand needs to get some new manufacturers. Sure this wont be easy Thailand will have to compete. Many firms will be put off by the political risk, but many wont be. (I know you may disagree on that point and fair enough... but its the truth, deal with it)

The firms who will come, most have probably been hit hard, and are offshoring to survive. So they are unlikely to come in and buy land and build. But they might opt to buy say old existing factories, or rent existing space.

This is happening, now, today, albeit at a slow pace but I think the need to reduce costs, to survive in the months ahead, will drive offshore manufacturing, a prospect which Obama hates, to greater levels.

Im not alone in this thinking too, although by your rationale PWC's opinion must also be dismissed, right?

http://www.pwc.com/extweb/ncpressrelease.n...5257521005ADFBE

http://www.pwc.com/extweb/challenges.nsf/d...525701300588b80

http://www.pwc.com/extweb/ncpressrelease.n...52575360062E2CF

@ Midas, you can continue to cite Japan, but understand that I do think the UK and USA will suffer for quite a while, the UK more so due to over reliance on financial markets, and GROSS OVERVALUATIONS, but I dont think there is any valid reason, nor precedent, to take current events in the USA and UK and marry them to Japan's experience and extrapolate them here, OR to every market in the world.

I happen to think that this scenario is a long shot too far. Does that make me naive? I dont think so. It does however make me more optimistic than you, but I am not so optimistic so as to be ignorant to the reality we are facing, far from it.

Edited April 3, 2009 by quiksilva

[midas]

Midas, you can continue to cite Japan, but understand that I do think the UK and USA will suffer for quite a while, the UK more so due to over reliance on financial markets, and GROSS OVERVALUATIONS, but I dont think there is any valid reason, nor precedent, to take current events in the USA and UK and marry them to Japan's experience and extrapolate them here, OR to every market in the world.

I happen to think that this scenario is a long shot too far. Does that make me naive? I dont think so. It does however make me more optimistic than you, but I am not so optimistic so as to be ignorant to the reality we are facing, far from it.

Ok quicksilva - I will use your own words from your own reply

" Once again you demonstrate that you either can not or simply choose to fail to understand my point. "

The reason I quoted Japan primarily is because you have harped on so many times about how you just couldn't see any possibility of things stagnating

for 20 years - oh no - that is ridicuous you keep saying - well it happened in Japan for 15 years and that was under much milder global conditions so it can happen again under the conditions that still lie ahead.

If you took time to find out real facts behind the true nature of the international banking crisis and not the crap being fed to the sheeple in mainstream media. -you will quickly understand that they haven't even got near to fixing the true problems in the banking system-arguably the worst is yet to come. That is why your endless diatribe about FDI which relies on " hope " for the future is meaningless compared to real current problems which politicians and bankers keep sweeping under the carpet.

Edited April 4, 2009 by midas

[Livinginexile]

Not the same where I bought.

I moved in on completion about a year ago, at that time only about half was occupied or in the prosess.

Now all are fitted out and most are occupied, it took a year but I think this is normal in Bkk.

There are nearly 400 condos in my complex, all sold, all fitted out and/or occupied.

Are you located in an undesirable location? are they cheap Thai market condo's?

Where is your condo and what are the rental rates?

Hi trogers;

My condo is located on suk soi 13. Complex name is Trendy.

It's not super high end by any means but a very desirable location. I have a 1 bedroom 72 sq/m and have a long term tenant paying 35k/mth.

Trendy is all sold out now with a few resales going on.

I am putting mine on the market now, I'm in no hurry to sell so it should be interesting to see how long it will take.

Cheers

[trogers]

Hi trogers;

My condo is located on suk soi 13. Complex name is Trendy.

It's not super high end by any means but a very desirable location. I have a 1 bedroom 72 sq/m and have a long term tenant paying 35k/mth.

Trendy is all sold out now with a few resales going on.

I am putting mine on the market now, I'm in no hurry to sell so it should be interesting to see how long it will take.

Cheers

A little history about your condo building. It was the staff quarters and back of the house area of the Ambassador Hotel, constructed about 22 years ago. There was a fire there, but not serious.

I was a member of their health club (at Tower Wing) back in 1984. Pity they cut off Bangkapi terrace (now stood an incomplete condo project in front of your building). That was a great place for local food and also a 24-hr coffee shop. It was also a favourite haunt for night birds looking for preys.

[Livinginexile]

Hi trogers;

My condo is located on suk soi 13. Complex name is Trendy.

It's not super high end by any means but a very desirable location. I have a 1 bedroom 72 sq/m and have a long term tenant paying 35k/mth.

Trendy is all sold out now with a few resales going on.

I am putting mine on the market now, I'm in no hurry to sell so it should be interesting to see how long it will take.

Cheers

A little history about your condo building. It was the staff quarters and back of the house area of the Ambassador Hotel, constructed about 22 years ago. There was a fire there, but not serious.

I was a member of their health club (at Tower Wing) back in 1984. Pity they cut off Bangkapi terrace (now stood an incomplete condo project in front of your building). That was a great place for local food and also a 24-hr coffee shop. It was also a favourite haunt for night birds looking for preys.

Ah yes, I remember those days. Ambassador plaza.

Many years ago I rented a serviced apartment where the Trendy is now built.

There was great seafood there, nice beer gardens and little shops surounding the plaza.

[trogers]

Hi trogers;

My condo is located on suk soi 13. Complex name is Trendy.

It's not super high end by any means but a very desirable location. I have a 1 bedroom 72 sq/m and have a long term tenant paying 35k/mth.

Trendy is all sold out now with a few resales going on.

I am putting mine on the market now, I'm in no hurry to sell so it should be interesting to see how long it will take.

Cheers

A little history about your condo building. It was the staff quarters and back of the house area of the Ambassador Hotel, constructed about 22 years ago. There was a fire there, but not serious.

I was a member of their health club (at Tower Wing) back in 1984. Pity they cut off Bangkapi terrace (now stood an incomplete condo project in front of your building). That was a great place for local food and also a 24-hr coffee shop. It was also a favourite haunt for night birds looking for preys.

Ah yes, I remember those days. Ambassador plaza.

Many years ago I rented a serviced apartment where the Trendy is now built.

There was great seafood there, nice beer gardens and little shops surounding the plaza.

I think Trendy is the same structure built 22 years ago, but was converted to a service apartment in early 90s. When the hotel owner, Khun Chavalit passed away, the property was divided up. Trendy is a refurbishment of the service apartment. And the plot that was Ambassador Plaza became the failed speculative development. Now stood only the Ambassador hotel, a shadow of its past.

[midas]

I think Trendy is the same structure built 22 years ago, Trendy is a refurbishment of the service apartment.

I wonder how many buyers were given this information before they decided ?

building standards are hardly great now - but 22 years ago OMG!