The Expat Factor

[jaideeguy]

I was just wondering with the fickle tourism sector and export sector suffering, how much of an effect do we expats have on the Thai economy??

How many expats living in country at least 6 months of the year??

What's our average contribution to the Thai economy?? [immigration requirements minimum 65K THB/mo Retirement. 800K THB in bank and we mostly go over that amount]

Not to mention the houses we finance for our own families [and extended families] and autos we buy and businesses we set up and how many 'sick buffalos' we help etc etc.

Just wondering if there are any official figures or educated estimates from TV members [who seem to know everything]

And what's the trend now.....more expats leaving or arriving??

And is the Thai govmt aware of the contributions we make??

[noahvail]

What's our average contribution to the Thai economy?? [immigration requirements minimum 80KTHB/mo Retirement. 40KTHB/mo married and we mostly go over that amount]

Can't answer your questions, don't know the answers. But I do have a question.

When did the retirement extension raise its minimum monthly amount from 65K baht to 80K baht? If that's true, it's rather scary.

[jaideeguy]

Sorry, you're right.....it is 65k/mo or 800k in Thai bank. Will try to edit it if it's not too late.

[jaideeguy]

Too late....maybe the mods can correct my mistake so as not to scare anyone else.

[noahvail]

Too late....maybe the mods can correct my mistake so as not to scare anyone else.

No problems, mate. I've made enough mistakes on my own lol...

No biggie, if the mods don't change it folks will read on down through.

Thanks for replying so quickly!

[samran]

my impression that it is tiny, and if you sent all farangs expats home, who live here in whatever capacity (not that I'm advocating it) the effect on the Thai economic GDP figures would be a rounding error (ie insignificant). In other words, they add very little as a group.

Two points, one quantative comparison and one qualitative.

1) An economic study undertaken by the Productivity Commission in Australia (a nation of migrants) found that it takes 10 skilled migrants, working, paying taxes, creating wealth via their work (and inducing demand), to create just one new job for the Australian economy. Compare this to expats in Thailand, I'd dare say that most expats here don't work, so you are going to need alot more expats here to create just one job.

2) Someone once made a point on this site that the economy has shrunk 6% to 9% in the past year, and the country hasn't collapsed. Given the hypothesis that expats as a group, contribute very little, then I suspect if you sent all of them home, nothing much would happen.

Conculsion?

To compare Australian figures to Thailand is somewhat limited, but I've only done so to provide an order of magnitude reference point of what skilled working migrants contribute.

Having said that, if you wanted expats to be able to contribute more to Thailand, work rights for spouses, easier business visas and establishment laws would go someway to increasing the positive impact, which I beleive at the moment is rather limited.

[norwayeagle]

A Thaifriend told me that YES we make alot of money ,and he pointed his finger up to the farang ghettos. so he said :: Dont know why they live like that locked up behind biig fences .Where is their "freedom".

[Jingthing]

X

Compare this to expats in Thailand, I'd dare say that most expats here don't work, so you are going to need alot more expats here to create just one job.

You are SO wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Each retired expat creates SEVERAL local economy jobs.

I don 't recall the exact estimate for the Philippines, but is it over five local jobs for EACH retired expat.

The hard currency comes in and CIRCULATES all around the economy several times.

Even in Thailand, do you really think we are tolerated because we SMELL good? Thailand is NOT Australia. It is a THIRD WORLD POOR COUNTRY.

The Philippines, economically quite similar to Thailand

Arroyo wants to turn Philippines into retirement haven

Posted: 8:24 PM | May 30, 2006

Lira Dalangin-Fernandez

INQ7.net

PRESIDENT Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo wants the Philippines to be a retirement haven for expatriate retirees, a billion-dollar industry.

At a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, she approved proposals to make the retirement industry one of her administration's flagship projects and appointed retired police chief Edgardo Aglipay as the "retirement czar."

She has also instructed the Department of Budget and Management to allot funds for the Philippine Retirement Authority to develop the industry.

In a presentation in Malacanang, David Paraiso of the Healthcare Coalition Institute said the country has the capacity to support between one million to three million expatriate retirees.

A retiree bringing in at least 1,500 dollars a month means 18 to 56 billion dollars in potential revenue per year.

The global population will see an increasing aging population mostly in developed countries, HCI said.

Aglipay said that currently, foreigners go to Malaysia and Thailand to retire.

He said the Philippines should create a world-class retirement industry with the support of the private sector and the government.

[samran]

X

Compare this to expats in Thailand, I'd dare say that most expats here don't work, so you are going to need alot more expats here to create just one job.

You are SO wrong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Each retired expat creates SEVERAL local economy jobs.

I don 't recall the exact estimate for the Philippines, but is it over five local jobs for EACH retired expat.

The hard currency comes in and CIRCULATES all around the economy several times.

The Philippines, economically quite similar to Thailand

Arroyo wants to turn Philippines into retirement haven

Posted: 8:24 PM | May 30, 2006

Lira Dalangin-Fernandez

INQ7.net

PRESIDENT Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo wants the Philippines to be a retirement haven for expatriate retirees, a billion-dollar industry.

At a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, she approved proposals to make the retirement industry one of her administration's flagship projects and appointed retired police chief Edgardo Aglipay as the "retirement czar."

She has also instructed the Department of Budget and Management to allot funds for the Philippine Retirement Authority to develop the industry.

In a presentation in Malacanang, David Paraiso of the Healthcare Coalition Institute said the country has the capacity to support between one million to three million expatriate retirees.

A retiree bringing in at least 1,500 dollars a month means 18 to 56 billion dollars in potential revenue per year.

The global population will see an increasing aging population mostly in developed countries, HCI said.

Aglipay said that currently, foreigners go to Malaysia and Thailand to retire.

He said the Philippines should create a world-class retirement industry with the support of the private sector and the government.

look, I'm quoting one extremely respected source. I'm sorry the number didn't come out as you wanted it.... You've just made an assertion that I am 'sooo, wrong', an hence, you must be right. You aren't related to JR Texas are you?

We can debate night and day about whether retirees are gods gift to a country's economic well being. The only point I make is this, if a country which respects the contribution of migrants, like Australia, thought retirees were useful, why doesn't it make it easier for them to go there?

I'm also confused about the dodgy figures from Mr. Aglipay. He's quoting 56billion dollars in potential revenues, that is equivelent to 30% of the Philipines GDP ($155billon). Three million people also represents one of the greatest mass migrations in world history. Sorry, but i just don't beleive his numbers, and he hasn't even bothered to figure out the net contribution one retiree makes (remember, the will send a bunch of their money right back overseas again through buying imported items), and there will be an economic cost to the infratructure they consume.

I'll take the hard working economists at the Australian Productivity Commission over an a PH retired police chief (who is probably used to big numbers...through his own bank account).

[Datsun240Z]

A Thaifriend told me that YES we make alot of money ,and he pointed his finger up to the farang ghettos. so he said :: Dont know why they live like that locked up behind biig fences .Where is their "freedom".

He never asked why farang need big fences in Thailand and not in home land?

[norwayeagle]

A Thaifriend told me that YES we make alot of money ,and he pointed his finger up to the farang ghettos. so he said :: Dont know why they live like that locked up behind biig fences .Where is their "freedom".

He never asked why farang need big fences in Thailand and not in home land?

hehe got ur point,,,I would brake glass and cement it on top of my fence like thai people do,NO doubt about that..

[DP25]

You'd have to know how many expats/retirees there are and how much they spend per month. For example 200,000 people spending $2,000 per month would equate to $4.8 billion per year in a $270 billion economy. I imagine that the real number is significant, but by no means crucial except on an individual level.

[BigSnake]

NO BRAINER, dude, SPend spend, new houses, news cars, new housing, you name it if our Thai Ladies want it and we can afford it, we spend the money, now on upscale side look at what the likes of Lotus, Carrefour, Global house, McDonald, etc, put in to the Thai enconomy, mainly with jobs, which mean money the their pocket SPEND SPEND BABY

[kurnell]

Are we talking about retired expats or working expats? Working expats bring expertise, which the Thais need, despite what they think.

[henryalleman]

I wrote it before somewhere.

Presume an retiree spend approximately about 1 million baht a year. Money that is directly injected in the Thai economy from outside the country;

So 1000 retirees contribute 1 billion Baht a year to the Thai economy.

So making an attractive country for pensioners could be an important source of income for the country, because they are net contributors to the Thai economy, they don't take away any job from any Thai people, and they inject an considerable amount of foreign currency into the country.

And then I not yet mention that they cost NOTTHING to the Thai government.

In fact they could be a very nice little goldmine for Thailand or should I say money tree, who bear fruits all year long.

[IMA_FARANG]

Are we talking about retired expats or working expats? Working expats bring expertise, which the Thais need, despite what they think.

I don't know the figures on the amount of Baht that expats actully inject into the Thai economy. But I suspect that as a pecentage of the real Thai economy it isn't as much as the average expat thinks. Even if there are 500,000 expats living in Thailand...in a population of over 6 million...I doubt that the number runs to 10% of the total population. Even though the amount a typical expat might spend 3 times what a Thai does, I don't think it adds up to 20% of the whole Thai economy.

As for the "expertise" factor...that is almost nothing. I know most expats feel otherwise, but that is mostly nonsense generated by the imagination of these expats. Since only a small percentage of expats actually work, and many of them that do are working for there own benefit, not for the Thai economy; their contribution of "expertise" into the Thai economy is minimal. Frankly, what they do "know" they tend to keep to themselves.

And for those whose main contribution to the Thai economy is made in bars and bordellos....I'd guess their contribution of "expertise" is almost nothing. Not what they think, I'm sure, but I think I'm right.

One thing I've found out in my wanderings in Thai businesses....the secretaries usually know more than their bosses do,but the bosses usually assume the opposite is true.

Don't get me wrong, I'm an "expat'...whatever that is. I support a total of 6 Thais in my family. But most of them, except for the 12 year old grand daughter, and the 60 year old mother, work for at least part of their expenses.

Anyhow, if anyone has actual figures for tthe amount in Baht that expats inject into the Thai economy...I'd like to see them. Until then, my (uneducated) opinion is that the percentage value is nowhere what most expats want to believe.

[Dakhar]

Are we talking about retired expats or working expats? Working expats bring expertise, which the Thais need, despite what they think.

aint that the truth

[catmac]

Samran, you are comparing chalk and cheese with your Australian statistics. Australia is a developed, welfare state, so a retiree potentially could cost it dear - health costs, benefits, etc., etc.

Thailand is just the opposite as Jingthing so rightly pointed out. A retiree costs Thailand nothing at all - they have to pay for everything they need themselves, and in so doing create work for Thais. Why you should imagine that someone pumping up to 1 million baht a year into their local economy does nothing for local employment is beyond me. Are you a Thai by any chance? If so, then I might begin to understand why you take up the position that you do.

[Jingthing]

We can debate night and day about whether retirees are gods gift to a country's economic well being. The only point I make is this, if a country which respects the contribution of migrants, like Australia, thought retirees were useful, why doesn't it make it easier for them to go there?

Oz, being a FIRST WORLD country, DOES invite retirees to live there. WEALTHY retirees. Thailand being a THIRD WORLD country with all that implies rationally allows less wealthy, but still SOLVENT retirees to live here. Thailand is among many progressive third world countries doing the same. The economic benefits are obvious. Resident retired expats spend differently than tourists, they start households, they buy furniture, hire "servants", eat out all year long even the off season, etc. etc. Its free HARD CURRENCY and again I ask do you think they allow us to live here out of the goodness of their hearts? GET REAL. Our money has benefits to Thailand.

[DP25]

Even if there are 500,000 expats living in Thailand...in a population of over 6 million...I doubt that the number runs to 10% of the total population. Even though the amount a typical expat might spend 3 times what a Thai does, I don't think it adds up to 20% of the whole Thai economy.

Thailand has over 65 million people, not 6 million, and farang are definitely no where near 10% of the population, more like less than 1%.

[Datsun240Z]

NO BRAINER, dude, SPend spend, new houses, news cars, new housing, you name it if our Thai Ladies want it and we can afford it, we spend the money, now on upscale side look at what the likes of Lotus, Carrefour, Global house, McDonald, etc, put in to the Thai enconomy, mainly with jobs, which mean money the their pocket SPEND SPEND BABY

That's the key! Just live in a shitbox, and have $ Bilions on the bank!!

[IanForbes]

You'd have to know how many expats/retirees there are and how much they spend per month. For example 200,000 people spending $2,000 per month would equate to $4.8 billion per year in a $270 billion economy. I imagine that the real number is significant, but by no means crucial except on an individual level.

That sounds like a reasonable average. It is about what I spend each month when I'm in Thailand for 5 months each year. And, I'm a cheap charlie. We also have to factor in WHERE the expats tend to live. I would imagine there are far more expats in Chiang Mai, Pattaya and the Phuket areas than area like Isan.

[IanForbes]

Samran, you are comparing chalk and cheese with your Australian statistics. Australia is a developed, welfare state, so a retiree potentially could cost it dear - health costs, benefits, etc., etc.

Thailand is just the opposite as Jingthing so rightly pointed out. A retiree costs Thailand nothing at all - they have to pay for everything they need themselves, and in so doing create work for Thais. Why you should imagine that someone pumping up to 1 million baht a year into their local economy does nothing for local employment is beyond me. Are you a Thai by any chance? If so, then I might begin to understand why you take up the position that you do.

Good point, catmac. As a retiree in Canada I have the potential of costing my country money in the future when my health fails. I'm not sure how the figures work out on the pension plan I paid into and the benefits I now receive. They had my tax money to invest for the 40 years when I was paying into the plan. I would imagine my government would appreciate it if I died sooner to save them more money, but I'm not in any hurry to accommodate them.

When I'm in Thailand I pay for EVERYTHING... including any medical attention I receive. My annual road rash I receive for riding a motorcycle in Thailand always costs me something. I donate about $2000 per month directly into the Thai economy. I would guess that would be a low average for most expats.

[samran]

We can debate night and day about whether retirees are gods gift to a country's economic well being. The only point I make is this, if a country which respects the contribution of migrants, like Australia, thought retirees were useful, why doesn't it make it easier for them to go there?

Oz, being a FIRST WORLD country, DOES invite retirees to live there. WEALTHY retirees. Thailand being a THIRD WORLD country with all that implies rationally allows less wealthy, but still SOLVENT retirees to live here. Thailand is among many progressive third world countries doing the same. The economic benefits are obvious. Resident retired expats spend differently than tourists, they start households, they buy furniture, hire "servants", eat out all year long even the off season, etc. etc. Its free HARD CURRENCY and again I ask do you think they allow us to live here out of the goodness of their hearts? GET REAL. Our money has benefits to Thailand.

You are missing my point by a wide mark. Go back and read my first post.

Firstly, I only quoted the Australian numbers as an order of magnitude calculation, from a respected source. This means I'm trying to give people a 'feel' of what the real numbers would probably look like.

I've get to see any numbers from you, or anyone else yet, regarding the NET contribution you make. I never said people contribute 'nothing', only that their contribution is a lot less than they suspect/wish/delude themselves.

People here have been trotting out GROSS figures, as if what they bring in (revenues) is all that counts, and maintaining, that they pay for 'everything' themselves. Well sorry, you don't pay for everything, there are 'costs' involved both real and forgone (ie the opportunity cost). The first cost is the cost in terms of infrastructure needed to service these new older expats, that will never be recovered via a decent history of cummulative tax payments (income, VAT etc etc).

The second cost is the forgone benefits of targeting expat retiree's at the expense of targeting more productive migrants (for instance) or fixing the economy so there are better jobs for locals to do.

Why are retiree expats the best option? (no one has explained that).

Isn't there a better option? I mean, the phillipines, I think, is a basket case of an economy. Their own locals are rushing to get away from the place given the lack of job opportunities (the even prefer to come to Thailand <deleted>) and the country relies on repatriations from foregin workers as a main income source. Isn't there something wrong with that picture? Shouldn't the governemnt there be doing more to encourage a productive economy so that their workers don't leave in the first place?

I'm sorry that my stance pisses so many (retiree's) off. You may/may not be gods gift, who knows. But why can't I make an OBJECTIVE point without being chastised? Love to see oposing economic figures and calculations. from respected sources, not the Thai visa brains trust.

ps. My point about Australian expat retirees still stands. Obviously the Australian government has calculated that retiree's on a NET basis contribute nothing unless they've invested something nearing $1million. Now, can someone give me what figure that should be for Thailand?

[Gerontion]

I've no idea how much it is but I'm pretty confident that it's a lot less than the average, narcissistic, self-regarding expat imagines it to be.

[slapout]

A group discussion about this very topic was had recently. We agreed that in CM the expats with children in International schools, if estimated at 1,000 (maybe low) would be contributing money into the local economy at the rate of about 1,000,000 baht per year. This seemed to be a realistic number determined by those of us in this position, etc. It should not be real difficult to come up with a like number for Thailand. Granted this is only a specific sample group of the various expat groups but I think country wide we all might be surprised at the montary contribution of the expat community.

[jaideeguy]

I figure roughly that I have spent 15milTHB over 10 yrs here in LOS as a full time expat married with children. That's counting houses, cars, motorcycles, maids, and just daily living expenses. Have cut down considerably in the last year due to my economy [as well as the world's], so now my expences are reduced to 60k/thb/mo.

If I am an average example and there are 100,000 more of me, then that's a lot of THB.......my calculator doesn't have enough didgits to add it.

Does anyone know if there are any accurate figures on HOW MANY EXPATS THERE ARE IN COUNTRY?

Then maybe we could roughly guess/estimate how much they spend....

[henryalleman]

People here have been trotting out GROSS figures, as if what they bring in (revenues) is all that counts, and maintaining, that they pay for 'everything' themselves. Well sorry, you don't pay for everything, there are 'costs' involved both real and forgone (ie the opportunity cost). The first cost is the cost in terms of infrastructure needed to service these new older expats, that will never be recovered via a decent history of cummulative tax payments (income, VAT etc etc).

May I point out that we retirees are paying for those infrastructure(BTW most of this infrastructures are private capital).Because when we go to a doctor, hospital and eventually an retirement home later we are paying all of that with hard cash. There is no 30 baht scheme for foreigners, just look to hospitals like Bangkok hospital their main source of income are treatments for foreigners, their website even have Dutch language and a Dutch translator service, they even have an office in Amsterdam.

BTW why should a retiree pay income tax, our income is not earned in Thailand, we only spend that money here, and we pay already VAT on everything we buy.

Tax on our cars, benzine,diesel,clothes,insurance name it and we pay VAT. And what we ask in return? NOTHING, we only like to live a quiet anonymous life disturbing nobody. Also for all our immigration documents we pay. So please tell me what is free for an retiree in Thailand, or what benefits the Thai government give us?

And of course the figures we give are debatable, but I presume they have some value because they are based on personal spending. And if like somebody wrote that there are 10 000 retirees in Thailand that means 10 Billion Baht injected in the economy. And also I like to see some real figures from the NIS, but till then I think that the given figures are not so far from the reality.

But OK lets get a little bit scientific. Thai visa have about 80 000 members by their own survey about 25% of them are retirees living in Thailand so 20 000 X 1 000 000= 20 Billion baht.

I would not call this peanuts. 20 Billion Baht injected in the economy where the Thai government not even have to lift one finger to get it.

You are of course free to contradict me.

[T_Dog]

I figure roughly that I have spent 15milTHB over 10 yrs here in LOS as a full time expat married with children. That's counting houses, cars, motorcycles, maids, and just daily living expenses. Have cut down considerably in the last year due to my economy [as well as the world's], so now my expences are reduced to 60k/thb/mo.

If I am an average example and there are 100,000 more of me, then that's a lot of THB.......my calculator doesn't have enough didgits to add it.

Does anyone know if there are any accurate figures on HOW MANY EXPATS THERE ARE IN COUNTRY?

Then maybe we could roughly guess/estimate how much they spend....

The consulate here in CM estimates that there are over 7000 Americans living in Northern Thailand, and Americans up here are a minority I believe when compared to UK expats.

You also have to look at how many people we influence to visit Thailand each year. For me, that number is about 4 or 5 a year, so that ends up being a lot of good tourism dollars for the economy.

[doggie888888]

May I point out that we retirees are paying for those infrastructure(BTW most of this infrastructures are private capital).Because when we go to a doctor, hospital and eventually an retirement home later we are paying all of that with hard cash. There is no 30 baht scheme for foreigners, just look to hospitals like Bangkok hospital their main source of income are treatments for foreigners, their website even have Dutch language and a Dutch translator service, they even have an office in Amsterdam.

BTW why should a retiree pay income tax, our income is not earned in Thailand, we only spend that money here, and we pay already VAT on everything we buy.

Tax on our cars, benzine,diesel,clothes,insurance name it and we pay VAT. And what we ask in return? NOTHING, we only like to live a quiet anonymous life disturbing nobody. Also for all our immigration documents we pay. So please tell me what is free for an retiree in Thailand, or what benefits the Thai government give us?

And of course the figures we give are debatable, but I presume they have some value because they are based on personal spending. And if like somebody wrote that there are 10 000 retirees in Thailand that means 10 Billion Baht injected in the economy. And also I like to see some real figures from the NIS, but till then I think that the given figures are not so far from the reality.

But OK lets get a little bit scientific. Thai visa have about 80 000 members by their own survey about 25% of them are retirees living in Thailand so 20 000 X 1 000 000= 20 Billion baht.

I would not call this peanuts. 20 Billion Baht injected in the economy where the Thai government not even have to lift one finger to get it.

You are of course free to contradict me.

I agree!

I am no economist but anecdotally I suspect retirees, who do not vote and are entirely self funded, are an attractive lot to governments. Anecdotally, the Malaysian and Phillipines governments seem to be courting this group. Thailand is not going to admit farangs are valuable to the economy probably due to domestic politics but the mere tolerance of us and the granting of retirement visas with relative ease is quite telling. Despite all its shortcomings, the Thailand Elite visa is also quite telling about what the Thai government knows about our collective impact on the economy and tried (in vain) to attract high net worth foreigners.

Forgive me if it sounds arrogant because that is not the intention, but I think for many retirees here, our net worth to the economy is a lot more than Thailand is wiling to admit or to publicise...because an admission is akin to acknowledging our collective impact and with that, we might organise ourselves into a lobby group with real clout. And the Thai establishment does not need to share its power with foreigners, does it? Malaysia is more willing to openly court self funded retirees because they are better at setting (and sticking to) the ground rules and are smart enough to know how to manage "foreigners".

Not that any of it matters; even if we foreigners knew trhe quantum of our collective impact, can we be bothered to do anything with this information?

That's all folks, thanks for reading; I am off to the beach.