The Expat Factor

[Heng]

Since this is an English-language forum, let's take a stereotypical "lower-end" expat.  Let's take a 60-year-old male with a small pension living in Pattaya and hitting the bar life every night.  He has saved up 50,000 pounds and has his monthly pension.  He proceeds to drink and womanzie his savings away, in a year, and finds his pension is not big enough to support his lifestyle.  His condo rent is too high, he drinks too much, and without enough for the women, he sits and mopes.  Despite any criticsm you might send his way, from the Thai government's economic perspective, what is the problem?  He has injected something into the economy.  He may decide to go home, he maybe forced to go home when he doesn't meet visa requirments.  If he goes, he is no longer a concern to the government.

Of course, a million more of those people would be fine and dandy, assuming that they do maintain a plan B to get out of here and for their own sakes some kind of lives back home that they can return to (hopefully their pensions wouldn't provide a lifestyle too close to a subsistence one).

Also in the 'lower end' though are the folks who are also at the end of their funds, have no home to go home, have kids here, some having to resort to illegal activities to maintain their lives here, and all the while have growing expenses (often from growing kids) and diminishing returns in terms of income. We all know the common moans and groans from guys not even being able to handle their own partner or wife's growing expenses, much less those of their entire family. From a sociological perspective that's a negative equation.

[bonobo]

Also in the 'lower end' though are the folks who are also at the end of their funds, have no home to go home, have kids here, some having to resort to illegal activities to maintain their lives here, and all the while have growing expenses (often from growing kids) and diminishing returns in terms of income. We all know the common moans and groans from guys not even being able to handle their own partner or wife's growing expenses, much less those of their entire family. From a sociological perspective that's a negative equation.

Yes, when expat start to resort to illegal activities, well, that is a different story, whether that is small time cons as some people do to out-and-out robbery, drug running, and the like.  That is a true detriment to Thailand.

[JohnGotti]

2) Someone once made a point on this site that the economy has shrunk 6% to 9% in the past year, and the country hasn't collapsed. Given the hypothesis that expats as a group, contribute very little, then I suspect if you sent all of them home, nothing much would happen.

If all the expats leave then that means all foriegn companies leave unless you think they are going to be capable of doing business in Thailand with a 100% Thai staff. That seems highly unlikely. The expats in these companies that are running them (not the farang making 80k a month) are the best of best picked crop from their own countries. To use only an entirely Thai employee base, would severely weaken the companies production as you would be picking the best of the best from Thailand as opposed to the best of the best from Japan/USA/Europe to run your company. I just can't see Honda and Toyota sticking around when they are told, 'Ok, no Japanese people in your factory'.

Edited July 9, 2009 by JohnGotti

[Datsun240Z]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday.

The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

[JohnGotti]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday.

The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

It doesn't really matter. They really only need <1% of those farang. But those <1% are absolutely vital to the Thai economy.

I doubt the Airport ever would have gotten made with a 100% Thai staff. Wasn't the BTS a Thai-Italian investment? Etc Etc.

[oldsparrow]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday. The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

HAHA You can call it discrimination but I would see myself strange if I thinking of moving to EU and complain that their law is made even 88% European first. At first, I may not even get the VISA...

TL as good pasture and equal ooportunity for all is very far from the obvious truth. "Just get there and you'll 160 acres to farm" in early 19 century TL it was also true when the population was under 5 millions. Do you still expect good welfare for all in the 3rd world country?

Naturally TL has problem of lookinf after most of its people. If TL is a gold mine that even has surplus for foreigner its own people would not have to go to sell their labour abroad.

You just have to find your market or be the one who can spend

For the topic:

Absolutely, expat is good for the economy. The labour neighboring countries are also good for the economy.

Some country may practice 'disadvantage' immigration law but not TL at present.

[thaihome]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday.

The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

Which law are you referring to? We have no problem getting WP and visa extensions for our expats. The truth of the matter is the expat content for any company, Foregin or Thai is a purely economic one and the WP and visa rules have no impact on that decision at all.

I should note that is coming from one who has worked in Thailand for a foreign company over 5 years now and the company has been here since 1984. Not once in that time has the WP and visa rules impacted a single decision on expats.

TH

[Datsun240Z]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday. The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

HAHA You can call it discrimination but I would see myself strange if I thinking of moving to EU and complain that their law is made even 88% European first. At first, I may not even get the VISA...

Now, I don't know what your nationality is, but this is done to the fact that it not becomes a 3RD WORLD country, by applying strict visa regulations, not every scumbag can walk into the country, got it? That's why nobody has a gun here, and that's why it's hel_l a lot safer, than your average neighbour coming down the block and shooting a gun in the air, nor pointing it at his wifes head . Now I did not make up those rules and I certainly do not like it to, but I can see some logical points.

[Datsun240Z]

Face facts ; if the law aint changes, not much more falang is gonna come for work/living, only for retire and holiday.

The current law is made 99% Thai first, it's just one big discrimination!

Which law are you referring to? We have no problem getting WP and visa extensions for our expats. The truth of the matter is the expat content for any company, Foregin or Thai is a purely economic one and the WP and visa rules have no impact on that decision at all.

I should note that is coming from one who has worked in Thailand for a foreign company over 5 years now and the company has been here since 1984. Not once in that time has the WP and visa rules impacted a single decision on expats.

TH

Bingo

[glegolo]

You'd have to know how many expats/retirees there are and how much they spend per month. For example 200,000 people spending $2,000 per month would equate to $4.8 billion per year in a $270 billion economy. I imagine that the real number is significant, but by no means crucial except on an individual level.

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my counting says 400.000.000:- (400 miljons). But nevertheless, I think that locally in Thailand we make a big difference, but not overall for the BNP...

Glegolo

[steady]

Having read all of the comments on the subject I can't help thinking that perhaps some things are simpler in this life than we realise. The question was "What input does the expat population have on Thailand?".

The initial point about how many expats and their spending caused problems because no one actually knows how to define an expat, how many expats there are etc etc. The UK for example "knows " that there are around 50,000 UK retired or semi retired citizens in Thailand (at some time every year) and has published this figure in a document relating to UK citizens worldwide. I think that the Thai government does not keep these types of figures because they don't want expats to be an issue, because expats bring change. Money is ok but TiT!!

If one accepts that around 50,000 people come from the UK then a figure of 500,000 to 1,000,000 long term stayers worldwide (we still haven't defined expats) would be possible per year. I accept that maybe we are merging with tourism. Assume each person spends 50,000 baht a year (a very low estimate but some people come on short visits, 2-3 months). That would still mean an income to Thailand of free money of 50 billion baht. I know that all of these figures are open to dispute but a point to consider is that no one appears to be able to find any "official" statement concerning this area.

On a side note perhaps the government has a concern because of the amount of money floating around. In other countries whenever civil unrest occurs people act through passion, allegience to something or someone but in Thailand it appears to that 500 baht a day per person will rent you a crowd.

Keep things grey (and up until the age of the internet) people will remain ignorant of the facts.

[JR Texas]

You'd have to know how many expats/retirees there are and how much they spend per month. For example 200,000 people spending $2,000 per month would equate to $4.8 billion per year in a $270 billion economy. I imagine that the real number is significant, but by no means crucial except on an individual level.

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my counting says 400.000.000:- (400 miljons). But nevertheless, I think that locally in Thailand we make a big difference, but not overall for the BNP...

Glegolo

Yep......said something similar earlier.......it is the local impact in certain cities and areas within cities that is significant. If you get rid of the resident tourist expats, you, in effect, destroy various cities (e.g., Pattaya) and certain areas within cities (e.g., Khao San Road). That would have a major impact on Thais who depend on "farangs" for income in those areas.

[puipuitom]

Are we talking about retired expats or working expats? Working expats bring expertise, which the Thais need, despite what they think.

Did anybody ever asked , WHY there are so many expats working at high skilled positions in Thailand, and do few Thai's at same levels abroad ?

Imagine, all these farangs would leave their jobs in Thailand ? The country would come to a standstill in weeks

Only one thing would harm more: all second, third and fourth generation Chinese leaving the country:= 95+% of all business people.

[wolfmanjack]

You make a good point. The Bank of Thailand does store US dollars as a reserve currency as an economic tool, and perhaps other major currencies as well. However, the Thailand retirement program is open to nationals bringing in any kind of currency and rightly so. The money is usually converted into baht and spent and/or banked. There is the benefit, the spending and the banking of it and the many multiple times that NEW MONEY is circulated around the local economy.

Ah, so you meant "new" money, not "hard currencies".

I certainly agree that expats bringing money into the country and spending it is a benefit. But Thailand, unlike some such as the Philippines, is not so reliant on it. But, no doubt every bit helps and it all adds up in the end.

TH

The "hard currency" he is referring to is the money that is actually brought into the country as opposed to the "money multiplier" the money spent has. If i remember right the money multiplier for the USA was around 8 times before it was sucked out of the economy by taxes of one sort or another or taken out of the economy by stuffing it inside your mattress. So for every $1 brought into the country equals $8 to the economy as a whole. In thailand i would imagine the money multiplier would be double of what it is in the USA since most people do not pay taxes here. So for every $1 brought into thailand would mean about $16 in the local economy before it gets sucked out of the economy by the government.

[wolfmanjack]

Agriculture is by far the LARGEST employment sector. Satisfied now?

http://www.nationmaster.com/country/th-thailand/lab-labor

Employment in agriculture -- 42 percent

Employment in industry -- 20 percent

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand

Most of Thailand's labour force is working in agriculture.

Also, Thailand is the world's largest exporter of RICE and RUBBER.

so 20% of the workforce are more productive than 42% of them.

And people ask me what opportunity cost means!!

So why don't you define it for them.

I understand the concept and I still don't see how it relates to expats in thailand. Infrastructure that you have mentioned would have been built regardless of the expat community. The roads were not put in to service expats. The benefit to the economy of the monies spent by any expat is greater than the subsidy spent on his or her behalf so the opportunity cost for that money spent is less than the benefit obtained.

If you were talking about the government having to spend billions of baht on advertising thailand as a retirement destination then you could ask was the money well spent or could it have been better used for something else but the fact is that the government would not have to spend any money advertising thailand as a retirement destination. They would only have to give longer term visas and/or relax the rules a bit. The word will get around.

[wolfmanjack]

What's our average contribution to the Thai economy?? [immigration requirements minimum 80KTHB/mo Retirement. 40KTHB/mo married and we mostly go over that amount]

Can't answer your questions, don't know the answers. But I do have a question.

When did the retirement extension raise its minimum monthly amount from 65K baht to 80K baht? If that's true, it's rather scary.

Would you want to retire on less than $2200 USD (approx. 80k baht) anyways? I see retirement as enjoying life and being happy with all that one has accomplished, not scrimping and saving (happy hour draught beer) and chasing free buffet at balloon parties.

If it's 100k baht per month, it's likely still less than what one would need in their own country to retire.

Some people have no choice.

[Jingthing]

When did the retirement extension raise its minimum monthly amount from 65K baht to 80K baht? If that's true, it's rather scary.

Nope, not true. If using the bank account only its 800K in the bank; otherwise 65K per month with pension and/or a combo totaling 800K per annum.

[jaideeguy]

Been away from the web for a few days and now have returned hoping to find some hard figures on 'HOW MANY OF US ARE THERE IN LOS??' [expats spending at least 6 mo in country]. That was clearly stated in my OP and/or following posts. Any educated guesses or sources of info??

If we can determine how many there are of us, we can guess again at how much we spend.

I've read thru the many posts and discussion that my OP generated and so far....no facts.

surely there must be statistics somewhere...... give me some [official] numbers, please.

[sk1max]

D0 the Thais care what impact we have the economy?