The Stock Market

[Abrak]

To be honest the amount of bullishness is rather offputting. However, equities are still exceptional value against bonds and bonds are exceptionally poor value. In fact I dont really how a negative real on say TIPs guaranteed for 5 years is actually an investment. So the good news is that everyone piled into bonds at the end of a 30 year bull market and have been selling equities and that trend should continue reversing.

I dont much of a view after this run but I do have a view how things might pan out.

The market is being run by Bernanke. He has been talking about QE2 buying US$2trn of treasuries. This pushed up inflation expectations and kept UST yields low. Very good for equities. Very good for PMs. Crashed the dollar. Just what he wanted.

The general consensus view is that he will start QE2 in November and if he does a lot then the market will go up further and if he does a little it might come back. My view is sort of the complete opposite.

First of all he might not QE2. And if he does not after maybe a small fall it will be bullish for the market and if he does QE2 I think it is bearish.

Basically his plan is to buy US$2trn of USTs which might put up inflation while he wants expectations up so people spend more invest more and as their is economic slack there should not be inflation but some growth. Inflation is created by printing then people will begin to think about him acting to bring down inflation and rates might go up.

More obviously economic policies dont usually actually work. His threat of buying USTs has worked well. He should continue to threaten because a potential US$2trn buyer of USTs will keep rates low and inflation expectations high. If he actually starts buying people will start to worry about what will happen when he stops.

[Abrak]

Two of the best points you have ever made.

It is very simple. If you lend people money you do not actually know if you have made a profit until it is paid back.

If you have been in business, you will understand what is a profit what and cash flow. And really no one is fooled people play around and punt in this sort of stuff but 90% of businesses are genuine. Obviously companies capitalize interest, pre-operating costs, depreciate assets with use or over 40 years. Look people were happy to pay 50x sales for Yahoo. But honestly there are about 800 companies in Thailand to choose from. If you think say McDonald's isn't a real business you should get out more.

And Midas you do know that using banks as a form of argument is setting the bar below ground.

And in which " category " would you have placed Enron and Worldcom ?

both publicly listed companies

Enron, overstated earnings for four years by $586 million

WorldCom overstated profits by $3.8 billion

The point is with my question about profitabilty of banks is will they paint a rosy

picture of what could happen or will they come clean when reporting their quarterly

results ? ( i.e. it could be so bad for them they will need TARP #2 )

Midas,

WorldCom and Enron were both accounting frauds but I guarantee you if you looked up either of the companies annual reports and read the first page of their accounting policies you would find them too opaque to consider investing either company. Sort of assets are depreciated over 5 to 25 years sort of stuff, this and that are capitalised, revenues are booked this and that maybe sort of way. Now of course analysts have to put up with that sort of stuff and make recommendations while you can simply put it in the bin. If you dont understand exactly how and why a company is making money rather than just reporting profits you should not invest in it.

And Midas you simply did not read what I wrote about the concept of lending which is that you do not know your 'profit' until the loan is paid back or not. That is the simple fact of making a loan to someone. So whatever they report has absolutely nothing to do with reality. And Midas typically when a bank comes clean it is playing dirty. They report massive provisioning and huge losses so everyone thinks they have come clean with their US$100bn loss while they will typically over-provide by US$15bn, so they can write back provisions by US$2bn a year over the next 7 years and claim massive bonuses.

Banking is not a value creation business as a concept and let alone in reality. How does a bank make a profit anyway, simply by screwing the depositor or the lender or both (and eventually the tax payer.) If you can explain how the banks made their profits in recent quarters by creating what value where (apart from arbitraging the yield curve) then go ahead. If you think deposits with zero percent costs lent out to someone at 6% is value creation, it is not. Look Midas if you buy rice from farmers and sell it to a distributor you have added very little value. If you make 100% profit you have simply screwed one or other party or both. If Goldman Sachs would explain how they made their profits so they can justify massive bonuses I will listen.

But the argument they have created value and profit is really much more irritating than the losses because there is no real value to be had. Priveleged borrowing off the Fed at 0% and not lending it or lending back to the same party at 3% is a subsidy not value. Midas look at Allied Irish it is costing every working individual in Ireland US$30,000 it is costing the tax payer 30% of its assets while tier 1 capital adequacy is 6%.

[wordchild]

just wanted to add that along with the collapse of the markets a new breed of investor has emerged. High speed internet and DYO trading has in a way created the worlds biggest casino. Nimble fingers and a basic understanding of T/A has created new opportunities to scalp from the new kids on the block who "wanna be stock market traders"..

the increased level of share trading/turnover is one of the most significant changes in markets over the last 30 years. In the early 1980,s the average daily turnover of the UK market (the stats are similar for the US) was the equivalent of about 0.15% of the total market value of all the stocks in the market. ie over the course of a year aprox 40% of the market cap of the average company changed hands. That figure today is close to 200%, so the average company has its entire share capital traded every 6 months or so and for some popular shares in the US its now as high as 500%! On the basis that for most companies a big chunk of the share register is made up of long-term institutional holders who dont trade that much what this suggests is that there is a fair chunk of the share capital for the average company that is in almost constant rotation. Whilst in the long-term i would agree that its fundamental value that counts share prices on a day to day basis are really determined by players with a very short-term agenda.

[Abrak]

just wanted to add that along with the collapse of the markets a new breed of investor has emerged. High speed internet and DYO trading has in a way created the worlds biggest casino. Nimble fingers and a basic understanding of T/A has created new opportunities to scalp from the new kids on the block who "wanna be stock market traders"..

the increased level of share trading/turnover is one of the most significant changes in markets over the last 30 years. In the early 1980,s the average daily turnover of the UK market (the stats are similar for the US) was the equivalent of about 0.15% of the total market value of all the stocks in the market. ie over the course of a year aprox 40% of the market cap of the average company changed hands. That figure today is close to 200%, so the average company has its entire share capital traded every 6 months or so and for some popular shares in the US its now as high as 500%! On the basis that for most companies a big chunk of the share register is made up of long-term institutional holders who dont trade that much what this suggests is that there is a fair chunk of the share capital for the average company that is in almost constant rotation. Whilst in the long-term i would agree that its fundamental value that counts share prices on a day to day basis are really determined by players with a very short-term agenda.

This HFT sounds like a loser to me. You shouldnt offer liquidity to people who know what they are actually doing while I think they think that they are making spreads. Or maybe they fool me by trading as though they are trying to. Anyway liquidity is simply great if I can sell 3% of a company without moving the price down, I dont care if they make money or not.

Edited October 17, 2010 by Abrak

[Abrak]

".... regarding residential and commercial property and i can say with a high degree of confidence, no one in this country for sure can know who owns any real estate unless it was before the days of securitisation “

Midas, let me give you a bit of advice. You know so little about the market that you might as well give up. You are the only person here who even vaguely believes that price and value are the same or should be the same.

It does appear that you recognize what is a huge opportunity to screw the banks which would be a very worthwhile contribution to society. I think I asked before whether short sale agreement also included a foreclosure option on non completion. But I will go further than you and say even if they think they can prove lien, they cannot. In the US, the only reason banks gain the upper hand is because owners default. When you can pay try asking a bank to prove that they are the bank that should be paid, no second lien liabilities etc.. There has been bank fraud on foreclosure in the US. And it is just so easy to foreclose on the bank. Any investor knows what a short sale is. And it is not a case of proving ownership of the property but proving that someone is the right person to pay the existing liability to.

And the reason this works so well is that you essentially reverse the Law and banks assume your non-payment is default which doesnt bother them because they will tack on some fees. At which point they must have committed 'fraud'. And I do not believe anyone has to repay a bank just because they can - quite the opposite in fact.

[zorro1]

I think Midas maybe a BOT. no way a real person can be so .....

Midas if you are real, let it go whatever your trying to achieve will kill you. No joke extreme negatativity combined with what seems to be an endless quest to save face will give you a frigginn heart attack.

START A NEW THREAD. I

If your on a long term quest to save the world.

you DO NOT understand the markets. Your in the wrong room

Either buy something or go short. This is a trading forum, stop wasting bandwidth.

[Abrak]

I think Midas maybe a BOT. no way a real person can be so .....

Midas if you are real, let it go whatever your trying to achieve will kill you. No joke extreme negatativity combined with what seems to be an endless quest to save face will give you a frigginn heart attack.

START A NEW THREAD. I

If your on a long term quest to save the world.

you DO NOT understand the markets. Your in the wrong room

Either buy something or go short. This is a trading forum, stop wasting bandwidth.

Actually he doesnt understand the concept of a market. You see Zorro you would punt Citicorp and it could go bust the next day but you are not going to come crying about it. You may well invest without any concept of its value because it is going up and it may well go down 100%. But it is not fraud it is not a conspiracy and you know that getting burnt is a risk you take.

Now if I did that I would probably give up on the basis that I trade on value but I am going to admit that I was very stupid. Stockmarkets are not there for the public, they are supposed to be there to allocate capital. Midas I believe thinks that banks are declaring misleading profit and losses that could be regarded as a conspiracy or fraud. I know 100% for sure that whatever they declare is simply smoke and mirrors and I know that banks constantly destroy value and defraud tax payers on a consistent basis. What I find scary and irritating is that when they start declaring profits they declare themselves valuable when they are given the exclusive right to borrow from the Fed at 0% and Midas goes on about Tarp 2 when it is there every single day.

And when you are being openly screwed it is not FRAUD or a conspiracy just because you cant SEE it. BLS job numbers are not misrepresented. It really is beyond belief that he believes the Government is competent enough to execute a conspiracy. If anyone buys a bank, WorldCom or Enron or any other company, they deserve to lose their money if they go bust, that is the point of the market. It is not a social service.

And look I know all you guys dont really care about value or fundamentals. But I think you can get a basic concept that you dont know the profit on a loan until it is repaid or not. And then he asks about quarterly bank profits. My theory is that he deliberately winds me up. I just dont understand why he is allowed to vote and please respect the fact that just because you do well in the stockmarket, the bar is set incredibly low.

[Abrak]

BTW on a more positive note, do you technical guys actually know why technical analysis is successful apart from you have had success with it and it reflects market psychology. I might as well give you a puzzle to solve because I know exactly why it works, I can see that it must work and I cannot solve the problem because it is theoretically impossible as a mathematical equation or historic price correlation pattern.

Do you know why analysts cant actually do it. And do you know how annoying it is especially when Lanna says that he chooses 61.8% as a retracement level 'because it seems a good place to retrace to' when I know that number but have no idea why he uses it in this instance.

[zorro1]

" please respect the fact that just because you do well in the stockmarket, the bar is set incredibly low."

thanks I needed a laugh. I agree 100% and may the bar drop a few more notches so I can climb a bit further up this ponzi

everything in your post is true. Midas is winding you up since he hasn't a bean invested its simply playtime. All good though since your are passing on some seriously good long term knowledge in discrediting him.

[midas]

".... regarding residential and commercial property and i can say with a high degree of confidence, no one in this country for sure can know who owns any real estate unless it was before the days of securitisation “

Midas, let me give you a bit of advice. You know so little about the market that you might as well give up. You are the only person here who even vaguely believes that price and value are the same or should be the same.

It does appear that you recognize what is a huge opportunity to screw the banks which would be a very worthwhile contribution to society. I think I asked before whether short sale agreement also included a foreclosure option on non completion. But I will go further than you and say even if they think they can prove lien, they cannot. In the US, the only reason banks gain the upper hand is because owners default. When you can pay try asking a bank to prove that they are the bank that should be paid, no second lien liabilities etc.. There has been bank fraud on foreclosure in the US. And it is just so easy to foreclose on the bank. Any investor knows what a short sale is. And it is not a case of proving ownership of the property but proving that someone is the right person to pay the existing liability to.

And the reason this works so well is that you essentially reverse the Law and banks assume your non-payment is default which doesnt bother them because they will tack on some fees. At which point they must have committed 'fraud'. And I do not believe anyone has to repay a bank just because they can - quite the opposite in fact.

" You are the only person here who even vaguely believes that price and value are the same or should be the same."

Abrak where ever did i say that ?

I know price and value are not the same.

And the paragraph of the words you quoted are not my words....they are the words of the

attorney acting for the Earl family and if you dont know their full background, i am not

even going to bother.

Abrak you obviously know your stuff about the sharemarket itself but the nature

of your comments about the legal impediments ( or lack of according to you ) shows

you are clearly out of your depth about the full legal implications of " foreclosure -gate "

so its not even worth me discussing it further.

Time will tell

Edited October 18, 2010 by midas

[zorro1]

BTW on a more positive note, do you technical guys actually know why technical analysis is successful apart from you have had success with it and it reflects market psychology. I might as well give you a puzzle to solve because I know exactly why it works, I can see that it must work and I cannot solve the problem because it is theoretically impossible as a mathematical equation or historic price correlation pattern.

Do you know why analysts cant actually do it. And do you know how annoying it is especially when Lanna says that he chooses 61.8% as a retracement level 'because it seems a good place to retrace to' when I know that number but have no idea why he uses it in this instance.

not sure what the exact question is abrak? there are several fib retracement levels. As soon as one is broken then traders will sell off or push to the next level. of course in the meantime newbies are to busy catching the falling knives blissfully unaware that its going to in most cases hit 50% and if that doesnt hold etc etc.

T/A is a self fulfilling prophecy simply because its used by the pros or instos and arnt they all looking at the same chart? so how do they make any money if they are all doing it?

[Parvis]

T/A is in a sense a self fulfilling prophecy - but it is an art - not a science. The Market contains all the "wisdom" of the Market participants. Whatever method they use - it takes active buying/selling to move the prices. The process of selling is actually more complicated than buying - since you can always find a seller for your buy order, if you are flexible - but at times may find it difficult to find a buyer for your sell order, at any price.

The danger of "traditional T/A" in my opinion is that too little - if any - emphasize is given to divergences. For instance - at the present time DJI is within 150 points of a new yearly high - but the Indices in general lag significantly. The "financial segment" of the Market - which is typically leading the Market - is not only lagging - but has been trading sideways for the last 5 months - and certainly has not participated in the "breakout" to the upside we had 4 weeks ago.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Parvis

[zorro1]

T/A is in a sense a self fulfilling prophecy - but it is an art - not a science. The Market contains all the "wisdom" of the Market participants. Whatever method they use - it takes active buying/selling to move the prices. The process of selling is actually more complicated than buying - since you can always find a seller for your buy order, if you are flexible - but at times may find it difficult to find a buyer for your sell order, at any price.

The danger of "traditional T/A" in my opinion is that too little - if any - emphasize is given to divergences. For instance - at the present time DJI is within 150 points of a new yearly high - but the Indices in general lag significantly. The "financial segment" of the Market - which is typically leading the Market - is not only lagging - but has been trading sideways for the last 5 months - and certainly has not participated in the "breakout" to the upside we had 4 weeks ago.

parvis, i have been looking for a way of explaining why the market or a stock seems to crash faster than it rises

"The process of selling is actually more complicated than buying - since you can always find a seller for your buy order, if you are flexible - but at times may find it difficult to find a buyer for your sell order, at any price."

that about sums it up. Bears I have found are incredibly patient

[Abrak]

Midas,

Please read my posts before commenting on them. But to be honest you are right although I have some knowledge of strategic default and bad debt restructuring between 1998 and 2006 in Thailand I know practically nothing about US property or legal practices in general so I am out of my depth and we should not discuss it.

I was really trying to point you in the direction of taking an interest in something you do have a clue about. With the stockmarket you are not only out of your depth but clearly buried deep below the bottom of the pool. You clearly do not understand banking how they report profits if they actually make profits where and if they create value what is value. You obviously have never read an annual report and accounts. (and Midas I was Chairman of a small listed company and our annual report ran to 186 pages.) And that is done for shareholders not our own pleasure. If you have read one you clearly did not understand it.

But finally consider this Midas. Banks in Spain claim a 2.6% non performing ratio on their mortgages, 14% of properties are vacant. Unemployment is 21%. Now this not fraud because it ia their in their accounts and at the Bank of Spain. If you feel comfortable with that you can buy their shares. If you do and they have to write off 15% of their property exposure and be bailed out by the government don't complain.

However any of us make money in the market we basically do it from competing with other people. This enables capital to be allocated away from people who do not understand things. Companies go bust because they misuse capital. I would agree that someone Zorro is simply a greedy speculator who steals from the hapless and the stupid but markets are not a casino and if you treat them like one you will lose. And when you talk fraud remember that all you are really complaining about is your inherent lack of knowledge.

And where you say where did I say where did I equate value with price, the fact that you have done it 50 times in this thread without actually saying it is obvious to anyone. We all know you are deeply confused about the issue.

[Abrak]

Actually I do not think that Parvis is right here. Traders only tend to buy if there is liquidity so they can naturally find a seller. Liquidity tends to be ephemeral so a trader may have problems finding a buyer if he is a seller.

For a value investor, I do agree that selling is more difficult than buying. If you buy something that is 100% undervalued do you sell at 20% undervalued fair valued or overvalued. my decision on this is usually determined by the volume. If it is too high or seems to be peaking I will tend to sell.

Virtually everything I buy is illiquid, clearly if it is undervalued there are not many people with knowledge who will sell.

And I think Zorros view that markets go down faster than they go up is a reflection of the way he trades. I would argue that the US market has been declining for.a decade, Japan for 2 decades and Thailand for 17years. Thailand has trebled over the last two years which is a pretty steep rise.

Traders tend to buy into arising trend and value investors tend to buy into the end of a falling or at least the illiquid part of a rising one. Essentially if you join the party late don't be surprised if you end up with a hangover and, if like me, you turn up earlydont be surprised if you wait a long time for anyone to turn up at all.

[BlackJack]

".... regarding residential and commercial property and i can say with a high degree of confidence, no one in this country for sure can know who owns any real estate unless it was before the days of securitisation “

Midas, let me give you a bit of advice. You know so little about the market that you might as well give up. You are the only person here who even vaguely believes that price and value are the same or should be the same.

It does appear that you recognize what is a huge opportunity to screw the banks which would be a very worthwhile contribution to society. I think I asked before whether short sale agreement also included a foreclosure option on non completion. But I will go further than you and say even if they think they can prove lien, they cannot. In the US, the only reason banks gain the upper hand is because owners default. When you can pay try asking a bank to prove that they are the bank that should be paid, no second lien liabilities etc.. There has been bank fraud on foreclosure in the US. And it is just so easy to foreclose on the bank. Any investor knows what a short sale is. And it is not a case of proving ownership of the property but proving that someone is the right person to pay the existing liability to.

And the reason this works so well is that you essentially reverse the Law and banks assume your non-payment is default which doesnt bother them because they will tack on some fees. At which point they must have committed 'fraud'. And I do not believe anyone has to repay a bank just because they can - quite the opposite in fact.

you shouldnt start a sentence with and

[Parvis]

Zorro - I am sure that you are aware from your own experience - when your own money is involved that - the urgency to sell always tends to be higher than the urgency to buy. If this is also your experience - your experience will also have been that in general Markets fall faster than they rise (but not always true for individual stocks).

But - it is ofcourse always a question of your "timing horizon" - if you think in terms of decades your timing needs are different than thinking in less than 1 year (or in many cases even less than 1 month). I personally find the use of T/A for periods exceeding 6 month highly questionable. The future is forever unfolding and therefore forever gradually changing current perceptions.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

you shouldnt start a sentence with and

But. Why not?

[siamamerican]

Midas,

Please read my posts before commenting on them. But to be honest you are right although I have some knowledge of strategic default and bad debt restructuring between 1998 and 2006 in Thailand I know practically nothing about US property or legal practices in general so I am out of my depth and we should not discuss it.

I was really trying to point you in the direction of taking an interest in something you do have a clue about. With the stockmarket you are not only out of your depth but clearly buried deep below the bottom of the pool. You clearly do not understand banking how they report profits if they actually make profits where and if they create value what is value. You obviously have never read an annual report and accounts. (and Midas I was Chairman of a small listed company and our annual report ran to 186 pages.) And that is done for shareholders not our own pleasure. If you have read one you clearly did not understand it.

But finally consider this Midas. Banks in Spain claim a 2.6% non performing ratio on their mortgages, 14% of properties are vacant. Unemployment is 21%. Now this not fraud because it ia their in their accounts and at the Bank of Spain. If you feel comfortable with that you can buy their shares. If you do and they have to write off 15% of their property exposure and be bailed out by the government don't complain.

However any of us make money in the market we basically do it from competing with other people. This enables capital to be allocated away from people who do not understand things. Companies go bust because they misuse capital. I would agree that someone Zorro is simply a greedy speculator who steals from the hapless and the stupid but markets are not a casino and if you treat them like one you will lose. And when you talk fraud remember that all you are really complaining about is your inherent lack of knowledge.

And where you say where did I say where did I equate value with price, the fact that you have done it 50 times in this thread without actually saying it is obvious to anyone. We all know you are deeply confused about the issue.

I've tried in a less stimulating manner to educate Midas but it seems to be pointless. Not that I possess a wealth of investment knowledge but considering the intended recipient, it isn't a necessity. He'll just reply and hammer on about something completely irrelevant to your post or in most cases post an article as if it is the only truth. I'm coming to the conclusion that he isn't that bad of a person, and without people with his attitude it would be much more difficult in the investment arena.

Enjoy your posts and find this forum interesting once again after 2 years of being dominated by single minded pessimists. It isn't a perfect world but when was it ever. Arguably since 1990ish we have been in the midst of the largest global economic boom in the last 50 years. Maybe a little stretch but even with the recent crisis, billions of poor in countries like China and Asia are experiencing economic freedoms they would have never dreamed of 30 years ago. If you don't waste all your time forecasting doom, you might stumble on a couple opportunities.

There are great value investments other than PM's(not my thing but what ever works) out there today and a year ago when some on this forum were forecasting utter collapse. Now some claim they only expected a painful correction. Hmm, Me thinks they are too embarrassed to go back to the beginning of this thread and a few others and read their posts. The difference between the investment winners and the doomers is that one bases their attitude on the immediate past and the other looks at the past with interest and finds opportunities to profit in the future.

My $.02

[Bizz]

All hel_l Breaking Loose In Thailand, Stock Exchange On Fire

May 19, 2010, 5:01 AM

hasn't anybody learned.

[Paulo1]

All hel_l Breaking Loose In Thailand, Stock Exchange On Fire

May 19, 2010, 5:01 AM

hasn't anybody learned.

Buy signals were posted yesterday on Paulo1 thread Buy OMX .031 buy MNC .21 yesterday , today has moved 46% this morning.

[ExpatJ]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

[siamamerican]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

No, but there are a couple people I can think of on this forum that claim to be able chart future trends. Might want to send them a PM. It does sure seem like easy money Then again the vast majority of research on the subject paints a different picture.

I recommend buying a monkey (cheap in Thailand ) and teach him to throw darts at the business page stock symbols.

[Paulo1]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

No, but there are a couple people I can think of on this forum that claim to be able chart future trends. Might want to send them a PM. It does sure seem like easy money Then again the vast majority of research on the subject paints a different picture.

I recommend buying a monkey (cheap in Thailand ) and teach him to throw darts at the business page stock symbols.

LOL,

[ExpatJ]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

No, but there are a couple people I can think of on this forum that claim to be able chart future trends. Might want to send them a PM. It does sure seem like easy money Then again the vast majority of research on the subject paints a different picture.

I recommend buying a monkey (cheap in Thailand ) and teach him to throw darts at the business page stock symbols.

I have used basic charting to get a 51% return this year on the SET (im still amazed myself), then again my ex thai gf used to call me a monkey sometimes :-)

[Parvis]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

No, but there are a couple people I can think of on this forum that claim to be able chart future trends. Might want to send them a PM. It does sure seem like easy money Then again the vast majority of research on the subject paints a different picture.

I recommend buying a monkey (cheap in Thailand ) and teach him to throw darts at the business page stock symbols.

I have Metastock 8.0 - which I never used. It is a few years old - so not the latest version. You can get it for the whole price of - picking it up. Therefore if interested - PM me.

Edited October 26, 2010 by Parvis

[Abrak]

Parvis,

I noticed (unlike Zorro) that you made a very specific statement that the next trading opportunity would be 'down'. I just am wondering what might change your mind on that. In other words, it is pretty easy to expect some consolidation at some point especially with all the bullishness around, a range bound, fairly bear market etc. I just wondered if there was potential to surprise on the upside or what one should look for technically. Fundamentally I think there is room for a surprise upward movement. You know I think 'this time is different verses bonds'.

Essentially if you take PMs, especially Silver, you can see a bit of a shift in performance, plus you have TIPs and when you translate that inflation into equities especially against a long position in bonds, it really is very easy to see another say 15-20% on equities. 'At some point' in the next two years either equities will 'pop' or USTs will 'crash' by say 50% relative. That is about as much of a prediction you will ever get out of me.

[Abrak]

Does anyone here use Metastock software for technical analysis trading equities? how do you find it?

Costs a hefty 500 US$ so im hoping for some feedback before buying!!

No, but there are a couple people I can think of on this forum that claim to be able chart future trends. Might want to send them a PM. It does sure seem like easy money Then again the vast majority of research on the subject paints a different picture.

I recommend buying a monkey (cheap in Thailand ) and teach him to throw darts at the business page stock symbols.

SiamAmerican,

I do not understand charts and I agree with you it is incredibly irritating that people can make money with a few squiggly lines while fundamentalists have to make an effort.

You are 100% absolutely wrong if you think they cant do it because they can. If we were to research we would of course find that say a 'head and shoulders' prediction was not statistcally significant. But if you were to base judgment on technical analysis based on correlation you end up with the Armaggedon Omen. Actually key reversals are statistically significant in Thailand. If anyone could back test chart patterns then you would need a computer rather than an analyst. Actually if patterns existed that could be proven they would cease to exist.

Patterns certainly do exist - we have 100 years of 10,000 stocks that dont even vaguely resemble random walk. They cannot be modelled because peoples actions are co-dependent and they cannot be back tested because patterns are also co-dependent on other factors. I am sure you can understand that if you could prove it was effective it wouldnt be. And it is best to forget all about it because anyone who explains a technical principle with a logical mind simply asks the question 'why' and they do not care.

But look at any chart and it does not resemble a chart that looks in anyway random it is simply non-linnear with variable variables.

[Parvis]

Parvis,

I noticed (unlike Zorro) that you made a very specific statement that the next trading opportunity would be 'down'. I just am wondering what might change your mind on that. In other words, it is pretty easy to expect some consolidation at some point especially with all the bullishness around, a range bound, fairly bear market etc. I just wondered if there was potential to surprise on the upside or what one should look for technically. Fundamentally I think there is room for a surprise upward movement. You know I think 'this time is different verses bonds'.

Essentially if you take PMs, especially Silver, you can see a bit of a shift in performance, plus you have TIPs and when you translate that inflation into equities especially against a long position in bonds, it really is very easy to see another say 15-20% on equities. 'At some point' in the next two years either equities will 'pop' or USTs will 'crash' by say 50% relative. That is about as much of a prediction you will ever get out of me.

Abrak - it always depends on what one calls "trading opportunity". In any reversal - especially from up to down - there is high volatility which gives shortterm daytrading opportunities in BOTH directions for the experiences trader - using essentially technical analysis. This high volatility also makes "longer term forecasting" (and posting it) - rather difficult - because one is always told "wrong again" when there is a move of lets say 100 DJI points in the opposite direction.

I am sure you have noticed that the Market really has not progressed very much - except go sideways - in the last 2 weeks - giving opportunities in both directions. In any sideway movement - there is either "consolidating the gains (working off weakness)" - or "continued increasing weakness". I see the latter - so far.

I do not yet see the exact top for my expected "substantial downturn" - but we are within a few days for this to occur.

Therefore the next "substantial trading opportunity" lasting more than just a day or two - I expect to be down - SO FAR. What could change my outlook - MORE CONTINUED VOLATILITY - and the negative divergences to be reduced substantially. I also do not know how substantial this downturn will be. I could estimate - ofcourse - with technical analysis - but this is not my concern.

At present - I see no surprise on the upside - however - we do not yet have an exact top either - SOME more to go.

Edited October 26, 2010 by Parvis

[BlackJack]

not sure if this helps but trends seem to shine the light on where the herd runs

ie rare earths - now even seeing stories on the BBC and so mums and dads are busy with the wiki looking for REE's

ie building in China and India - think iron ore, copper,

ie gold silver - think security and hedge

these seem to be trends

and the biggest

mining in Australia - going gang busters

I did trial vector vest but found a 13 hour lag on it and so useless if you wanted to do a trade that was market sensitive

you can get a 2 weeks trial and see if its what you want

i just found a few forums that chartist do all for you and they get a hard on doing it and so no need for you to go to all the trouble - let them do it

forums are good as they crunch numbers and do forwards

if you just want to park some money try morningstar and take a punt