Do You Think There Will Be Another Tsunami Soon?

[BIG SPUDS]

Just wanted to see how people felt about the reoccurance of another tsunami.

How do people about holidaying/visiting these areas?

[Lawnmower]

I would visit the Andaman coast if i wasn't working! Don't believe all the sensationalism in the media about repeats in this area. Not for another few hundred/thousand years anyway.

[BIG SPUDS]

I meant to write "how do people feel about visiting/holidaying in these areas"

Typing a bit too quick

[The Gentleman Scamp]

I don't think there will be one soon, unless you count 300 yrs as soon.

Phuket needs tourists and I would go back if I had the time, I think, hopefully after that last quake that all the energy has been released for the time being.

[The_Moog]

Spuds wants to save a bob or two on that cheap suite in Phi Phi.

Really, though, its impossible for us laymen to answer the question (I daresay experts too!) - so, as Spuds says, its just on gut-feeling.

I therefore take any categorical predictions - from either point of view - with a pinch of salt. I don't see how any comfort whatsoever can be gained from the optimism of Lawnmower or TGS

I did see a very well thought-out reader's piece on Stickman's site today. He made the point that sunbathers stampeding from Patong beach might cause injury, (there was one on friday morning-ish when a biggish wave came in and all the Thai vendors scarpered, followed by worried families).

Apparently many obstacles and paraphenalia are now back to prevent escape - you run over the road and get struck by a tuk tuk !

(I'd recommend that this piece be reposted by a Moderator here, if Stickman's permission were obtained. )

Edited April 3, 2005 by The_Moog

[sriracha john]

its impossible for us laymen to answer the question (I daresay experts too!)

I therefore take any categorical predictions - from either point of view - with a pinch of salt. I don't see how any comfort whatsoever can be gained from the optimism of Lawnmower or TGS

Agree. It's in the hands of Mother Nature. The next one could be in 300 years, but then again, it could be in 300 minutes.

Edited April 4, 2005 by sriracha john

[jackr]

I don't think there will be one soon, unless you count 300 yrs as soon.

Phuket needs tourists and I would go back if I had the time, I think, hopefully after that last quake that all the energy has been released for the time being.

Didn't think it had all been released? Surely the Hawaiian islands are due a substantial belting again sometime in the not too distant future due to their more than precarious location in the Pacific?

[dr_Pat_Pong]

I don't think there will be one soon, unless you count 300 yrs as soon.

Phuket needs tourists and I would go back if I had the time, I think, hopefully after that last quake that all the energy has been released for the time being.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Didn't think it had all been released? Surely the Hawaiian islands are due a substantial belting again sometime in the not too distant future due to their more than precarious location in the Pacific?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe ... but I don't see Thailand getting hit again in the foreseeable future.

[sriracha john]

I don't think there will be one soon, unless you count 300 yrs as soon.

Phuket needs tourists and I would go back if I had the time, I think, hopefully after that last quake that all the energy has been released for the time being.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Didn't think it had all been released? Surely the Hawaiian islands are due a substantial belting again sometime in the not too distant future due to their more than precarious location in the Pacific?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe ... but I don't see Thailand getting hit again in the foreseeable future.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ever the optimist, eh Doc??

As for me, I've witnessed the awesome power displayed by Nature so many times and in so many ways from raging seas to blistering cold to flowing lava to typhoons to sweltering deserts and many more situations, that I would never try to second-guess as to when and where she's going to wreak havoc next.

Nature can be so wonderfully beautiful at times and then so amazingly horrific in the next moment....

no wonder we refer to Nature as "she"....

[dr_Pat_Pong]

A spot of optimism helps I hope

[cdnvic]

I'd hate to get run over by a tuk tuk in Chaing Mai while avoiding a tsunami in Phuket.

Sooner or later, something gets us.

cv

[Neeranam]

I would go to Phuket if there weren't so many tourists.

I believe my time will come, not as a matter of luck, or where I am, but as fate/karma/God/Buddha/whatever would have it.

[aletta]

I would go but would not be able to get the in-laws to go.Big believers in pee bar.

[BIG SPUDS]

GF wants to go as she has never been and thinks it looks beautiful. But she is scared of "tsunami and pee".

Up to her. If she wants to go we go.

[davethailand]

If it happens it happens. Nobody knows but I would'nt not go somewhere because of the worries.

[Padkapow Guy]

My wife is afraid to go to phuket. She does not want to get hit by a SALAMI.

[RDN]

After the Boxing Day quake, I subscribed to the USGS National Earthquake Information Centre. Each email from them is given a subject line that states the time, strength, country, depth and location of the event. Below are the last few dozen email subject lines.

Note that on the 25th March there was a 5.9 quake in the same area as the 8.7 quake on 28th March (highlighted in red).

Note also that on the 3rd April there was a 6.3 quake in exactly the same area.

Now, I'm not saying that in the next day or so, there's going to be another 8+ quake because the 6.3 has probably released the stress building up. But who knows?

2005/02/18 20:18 M 5.5 TAIWAN Z= 20km 23.20N 121.51E

Rvsd/02/19 00:04 M 6.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA Z= 10km  5.55S 122.03E

2005/02/19 14:04 M 5.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 29km  5.76S 101.63E

2005/02/19 00:09 M 5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA Z= 10km  5.68S 122.11E

2005/02/22 02:25 M 6.4 CENTRAL IRAN Z= 42km 30.75N  56.80E

2005/02/22 11:20 M 5.5 S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Z=363km 33.12N 137.19E

2005/02/22 03:20 M 5.8 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES Z= 18km 12.63N 123.21E

2005/02/22 17:12 M 5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION Z= 26km 10.81N  91.82E

2005/02/22 23:14 M 5.6 AUSTRALIA Z= 10km 65.66S 133.01E

Rvsd/02/23 11:33 M 6.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 52km  6.27S 150.58E

2005/02/23 12:12 M 5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 58km  6.40S 150.69E

2005/02/22 19:15 M 5.5 GULF OF CALIFORNIA Z= 10km 25.82N 109.90W

2005/02/24 04:55 M 5.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE Z= 10km 20.99S 113.64W

2005/02/24 07:35 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z=  5km  2.91N  95.68E

2005/02/24 02:36 M 4.5 ALASKA PENINSULA Z= 16km 54.40N 161.85W

2005/02/25 23:04 M 5.9 TAJIKISTAN Z=108km 38.08N  72.66E

2005/02/26 12:37 M 5.8 EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Z= 64km 40.74N 142.35E

2005/02/26 12:56 M 6.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.93N  95.56E

2005/02/28 12:49 M 4.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.31N 128.82W

2005/02/28 13:23 M 4.5 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.38N 128.45W

2005/02/28 01:06 M 5.7 OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO Z= 26km 18.91N 104.24W

2005/02/28 01:24 M 5.9 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE Z= 10km 34.54S 107.53W

2005/02/28 13:50 M 4.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.32N 128.78W

2005/03/01 00:32 M 4.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.33N 128.82W

2005/03/01 21:34 M 4.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.30N 128.85W

Rvsd/03/02 10:42 M 7.1 BANDA SEA Z=193km  6.57S 129.84E

2005/03/02 11:12 M 4.6 ARIZONA Z=  5km 34.74N 111.03W

2005/03/01 23:57 M 5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION Z= 10km 24.94S 112.26W

2005/03/04 19:05 M 5.7 MOLUCCA SEA Z= 10km  2.62N 126.44E

2005/03/05 19:06 M 5.7 TAIWAN Z=  5km 24.63N 121.82E

2005/03/06 04:40 M 5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 49km 11.04S 163.06E

2005/03/06 05:21 M 6.3 SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA Z= 10km 84.94N  99.15E

2005/03/06 01:39 M 5.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 37km 11.25S 163.22E

Rvsd/03/06 06:17 M 5.4 GASPE PENINSULA, CANADA Z= 18km 47.75N  69.73W

2005/03/06 13:01 M 4.7 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 49.04N 128.71W

2005/03/07 02:34 M 5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.49N 126.72W

2005/03/07 02:48 M 5.1 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.53N 126.62W

Rvsd/03/06 04:40 M 6.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 47km 11.06S 163.06E

2005/03/08 11:17 M 4.7 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.51N 126.24W

2005/03/12 07:36 M 5.5 EASTERN TURKEY Z= 25km 39.32N  40.90E

2005/03/13 03:31 M 6.0 SOUTHEASTERN IRAN Z= 55km 27.15N  61.88E

2005/03/13 15:08 M 5.6 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND Z=146km 40.24S 173.56E

2005/03/13 22:12 M 5.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 53km  5.56N  94.59E

2005/03/14 01:56 M 5.5 EASTERN TURKEY Z= 25km 39.36N  40.90E

2005/03/14 05:11 M 5.8 MID-INDIAN RIDGE Z= 10km 27.74S  73.83E

2005/03/15 00:15 M 5.5 COAST OF NICARAGUA Z= 56km 11.04N  86.21W

2005/03/16 13:23 M 5.5 KURIL ISLANDS Z= 36km 43.50N 146.86E

2005/03/16 22:41 M 5.7 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION Z= 10km 52.38S 159.37E

2005/03/17 13:37 M 6.2 GUATEMALA Z=198km 15.14N  91.40W

2005/03/17 23:20 M 5.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 43km  4.86N  95.03E

2005/03/18 07:23 M 4.7 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA Z= 16km 40.37N 124.98W

2005/03/19 15:02 M 6.3 TONGA Z= 10km 20.38S 174.37W

2005/03/19 17:34 M 6.3 FIJI REGION Z=590km 21.86S 179.56W

2005/03/20 01:53 M 6.4 KYUSHU, JAPAN Z= 10km 33.85N 129.98E

2005/03/21 12:43 M 5.8 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=562km 24.68S  63.43W

2005/03/21 12:23 M 6.4 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=558km 24.93S  63.36W

Rvsd/03/20 01:53 M 6.6 KYUSHU, JAPAN Z= 10km 33.85N 129.98E

2005/03/20 17:15 M 5.8 BANDA SEA Z= 27km  7.93S 124.80E

Rvsd/03/21 12:23 M 6.9 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=558km 24.93S  63.36W

Rvsd/03/21 12:43 M 6.4 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=562km 24.68S  63.43W

2005/03/21 17:06 M 5.5 FIJI ISLANDS Z=159km 24.96S 177.60W

2005/03/23 13:59 M 5.6 BOUVET ISLAND REGION Z= 25km 55.57S  1.53W

2005/03/25 01:04 M 5.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 43km  5.52N  94.38E

2005/03/26 15:40 M 6.0 BANDA SEA Z= 10km  4.91S 129.91E

2005/03/26 05:03 M 5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 32km  6.83S 153.61E

Rvsd/03/28 16:09 M 8.7 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.08N  97.01E

2005/03/28 18:30 M 6.7 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.90N  97.80E

2005/03/28 16:38 M 6.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.37N  97.36E

2005/03/28 18:48 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.73N  95.96E

2005/03/28 19:02 M 5.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.01N  97.82E

2005/03/28 23:13 M 5.7 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.19N  97.02E

2005/03/28 23:37 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.89N  96.33E

2005/03/28 23:39 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.92N  96.34E

2005/03/29 05:16 M 5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.62N  96.54E

2005/03/30 01:13 M 5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 27km  1.85N  97.04E

2005/03/30 12:00 M 5.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 78km 10.24S 161.27E

2005/03/30 16:19 M 6.3 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA Z= 30km  3.02N  95.40E

2005/03/30 17:41 M 5.8 FIJI ISLANDS Z=589km 22.31S 179.77W

2005/03/30 17:29 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 26km  2.95N  95.41E

2005/03/31 01:46 M 5.8 FIJI REGION Z= 33km 18.53S 176.02E

2005/03/31 07:23 M 5.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 29km  1.83N  97.07E

Rvsd/03/31 01:46 M 6.1 FIJI REGION Z= 10km 18.43S 176.00E

2005/04/01 10:37 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 28km  2.86N  96.33E

2005/04/01 20:32 M 5.6 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.40N  98.09E

2005/04/02 12:52 M 5.6 SVALBARD REGION Z= 10km 78.51N  5.99E

2005/04/03 00:59 M 6.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.40N  98.27E

2005/04/03 01:41 M 5.5 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES Z=119km 13.56N 120.79E

2005/04/03 03:10 M 6.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.05N  97.96E

2005/04/04 04:33 M 5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.68N  97.92E

[The_Moog]

Now, I'm not saying that in the next day or so, there's going to be another 8+ quake because the 6.3 has probably released the stress building up. But who knows?

Let me run this one past you.

Once a fault starts slipping via a quake, the stress is indeed released in the area that moved, but the plate - as it extends along the rest of the fault line, is 'left behind' - so it will have to catch up - at some stage. That creates a new set of stresses.

We know this plate is moving - more aggressively than anywhere else - including the San Andreas.

We're not seismologists - so making scientific calibrations of this is impossible for me.

My only point is that for Scampy and Lawnmower to be so bold is just sheer guesswork.

RDN did you see that piece on Stickman about day to day safety in Patong?

[sriracha john]

2005/02/18 20:18 M 5.5 TAIWAN Z= 20km 23.20N 121.51E

Rvsd/02/19 00:04 M 6.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA Z= 10km  5.55S 122.03E

2005/02/19 14:04 M 5.5 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 29km  5.76S 101.63E

2005/02/19 00:09 M 5.5 SULAWESI, INDONESIA Z= 10km  5.68S 122.11E

2005/02/22 02:25 M 6.4 CENTRAL IRAN Z= 42km 30.75N  56.80E

2005/02/22 11:20 M 5.5 S. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Z=363km 33.12N 137.19E

2005/02/22 03:20 M 5.8 MASBATE REGION, PHILIPPINES Z= 18km 12.63N 123.21E

2005/02/22 17:12 M 5.6 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION Z= 26km 10.81N  91.82E

2005/02/22 23:14 M 5.6 AUSTRALIA Z= 10km 65.66S 133.01E

Rvsd/02/23 11:33 M 6.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 52km  6.27S 150.58E

2005/02/23 12:12 M 5.7 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 58km  6.40S 150.69E

2005/02/22 19:15 M 5.5 GULF OF CALIFORNIA Z= 10km 25.82N 109.90W

2005/02/24 04:55 M 5.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE Z= 10km 20.99S 113.64W

2005/02/24 07:35 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z=  5km  2.91N  95.68E

2005/02/24 02:36 M 4.5 ALASKA PENINSULA Z= 16km 54.40N 161.85W

2005/02/25 23:04 M 5.9 TAJIKISTAN Z=108km 38.08N  72.66E

2005/02/26 12:37 M 5.8 EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN Z= 64km 40.74N 142.35E

2005/02/26 12:56 M 6.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.93N  95.56E

2005/02/28 12:49 M 4.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.31N 128.82W

2005/02/28 13:23 M 4.5 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.38N 128.45W

2005/02/28 01:06 M 5.7 OFFSHORE COLIMA, MEXICO Z= 26km 18.91N 104.24W

2005/02/28 01:24 M 5.9 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE Z= 10km 34.54S 107.53W

2005/02/28 13:50 M 4.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.32N 128.78W

2005/03/01 00:32 M 4.8 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.33N 128.82W

2005/03/01 21:34 M 4.9 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 48.30N 128.85W

Rvsd/03/02 10:42 M 7.1 BANDA SEA Z=193km  6.57S 129.84E

2005/03/02 11:12 M 4.6 ARIZONA Z=  5km 34.74N 111.03W

2005/03/01 23:57 M 5.5 EASTER ISLAND REGION Z= 10km 24.94S 112.26W

2005/03/04 19:05 M 5.7 MOLUCCA SEA Z= 10km  2.62N 126.44E

2005/03/05 19:06 M 5.7 TAIWAN Z=  5km 24.63N 121.82E

2005/03/06 04:40 M 5.5 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= [/size]49km 11.04S 163.06E

2005/03/06 05:21 M 6.3 SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA Z= 10km 84.94N  99.15E

2005/03/06 01:39 M 5.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 37km 11.25S 163.22E

Rvsd/03/06 06:17 M 5.4 GASPE PENINSULA, CANADA Z= 18km 47.75N  69.73W

2005/03/06 13:01 M 4.7 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION Z= 10km 49.04N 128.71W

2005/03/07 02:34 M 5.2 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.49N 126.72W

2005/03/07 02:48 M 5.1 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.53N 126.62W

Rvsd/03/06 04:40 M 6.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 47km 11.06S 163.06E

2005/03/08 11:17 M 4.7 OFF COAST OF OREGON Z= 10km 42.51N 126.24W

2005/03/12 07:36 M 5.5 EASTERN TURKEY Z= 25km 39.32N  40.90E

2005/03/13 03:31 M 6.0 SOUTHEASTERN IRAN Z= 55km 27.15N  61.88E

2005/03/13 15:08 M 5.6 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND Z=146km 40.24S 173.56E

2005/03/13 22:12 M 5.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 53km  5.56N  94.59E

2005/03/14 01:56 M 5.5 EASTERN TURKEY Z= 25km 39.36N  40.90E

2005/03/14 05:11 M 5.8 MID-INDIAN RIDGE Z= 10km 27.74S  73.83E

2005/03/15 00:15 M 5.5 COAST OF NICARAGUA Z= 56km 11.04N  86.21W

2005/03/16 13:23 M 5.5 KURIL ISLANDS Z= 36km 43.50N 146.86E

2005/03/16 22:41 M 5.7 MACQUARIE ISLAND REGION Z= 10km 52.38S 159.37E

2005/03/17 13:37 M 6.2 GUATEMALA Z=198km 15.14N  91.40W

2005/03/17 23:20 M 5.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 43km  4.86N  95.03E

2005/03/18 07:23 M 4.7 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA Z= 16km 40.37N 124.98W

2005/03/19 15:02 M 6.3 TONGA Z= 10km 20.38S 174.37W

2005/03/19 17:34 M 6.3 FIJI REGION Z=590km 21.86S 179.56W

2005/03/20 01:53 M 6.4 KYUSHU, JAPAN Z= 10km 33.85N 129.98E

2005/03/21 12:43 M 5.8 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=562km 24.68S  63.43W

2005/03/21 12:23 M 6.4 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=558km 24.93S  63.36W

Rvsd/03/20 01:53 M 6.6 KYUSHU, JAPAN Z= 10km 33.85N 129.98E

2005/03/20 17:15 M 5.8 BANDA SEA Z= 27km  7.93S 124.80E

Rvsd/03/21 12:23 M 6.9 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=558km 24.93S  63.36W

Rvsd/03/21 12:43 M 6.4 SALTA, ARGENTINA Z=562km 24.68S  63.43W

2005/03/21 17:06 M 5.5 FIJI ISLANDS Z=159km 24.96S 177.60W

2005/03/23 13:59 M 5.6 BOUVET ISLAND REGION Z= 25km 55.57S  1.53W

2005/03/25 01:04 M 5.9 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 43km  5.52N  94.38E

2005/03/26 15:40 M 6.0 BANDA SEA Z= 10km  4.91S 129.91E

2005/03/26 05:03 M 5.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G. Z= 32km  6.83S 153.61E

Rvsd/03/28 16:09 M 8.7 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.08N  97.01E

2005/03/28 18:30 M 6.7 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.90N  97.80E

2005/03/28 16:38 M 6.0 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.37N  97.36E

2005/03/28 18:48 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.73N  95.96E

2005/03/28 19:02 M 5.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.01N  97.82E

2005/03/28 23:13 M 5.7 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.19N  97.02E

2005/03/28 23:37 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.89N  96.33E

2005/03/28 23:39 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.92N  96.34E

2005/03/29 05:16 M 5.8 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.62N  96.54E

2005/03/30 01:13 M 5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 27km  1.85N  97.04E

2005/03/30 12:00 M 5.7 SOLOMON ISLANDS Z= 78km 10.24S 161.27E

2005/03/30 16:19 M 6.3 OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA Z= 30km  3.02N  95.40E

2005/03/30 17:41 M 5.8 FIJI ISLANDS Z=589km 22.31S 179.77W

2005/03/30 17:29 M 5.7 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 26km  2.95N  95.41E

2005/03/31 01:46 M 5.8 FIJI REGION Z= 33km 18.53S 176.02E

2005/03/31 07:23 M 5.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 29km  1.83N  97.07E

Rvsd/03/31 01:46 M 6.1 FIJI REGION Z= 10km 18.43S 176.00E

2005/04/01 10:37 M 5.5 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA Z= 28km  2.86N  96.33E

2005/04/01 20:32 M 5.6 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.40N  98.09E

2005/04/02 12:52 M 5.6 SVALBARD REGION Z= 10km 78.51N  5.99E

2005/04/03 00:59 M 6.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  0.40N  98.27E

2005/04/03 01:41 M 5.5 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES Z=119km 13.56N 120.79E

2005/04/03 03:10 M 6.3 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA Z= 30km  2.05N  97.96E

2005/04/04 04:33 M 5.5 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA Z= 30km  1.68N  97.92E

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Criminy!!!... This world is falling apart faster than a small appliance purchased at

Big C......

ok, ok... I'll remember Stumonster's avatar and say:

What? Me Worry?

[cliffy]

Just wanted to see how people felt about the reoccurance of another tsunami.

How do people about holidaying/visiting these areas?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No i dont and am presently 10feet from the sea at phuket....it a time to support and not try and influence people not to come as areaand pppppeople need all the help they can get ..........

Its a lovely day nice and cool with breeze...what a better place to be !!!!!

[Lawnmower]

True, we are quessing. Seismologists are also pretty much quessing.

Earthquakes have happened in Indonesia for a long time and will continue for a long time in the future. There can be no denying that more will occur. However, an earthquake that will trigger a tsunami with the same impact and to the same area is pretty unlikely ( not impossible) for a long time. Stress will remain on the fault but as the data shows the location of the earthquakes constantly changes in the area. Thus, the effects of an earthquake, however big or small, will change.

[carlthailand]

Worrying about when a natural disaster is going to strike is not going to spoil my life.

Now, if there is someone who could tell me this I would be grateful. Too me they could be related. We pump millions of barrels of oil from the Earth every day. We don't replace it with anything. Therefore, we are creating huge voids underground. COuld this HAVE anything to do with the techtonic plates movement. Or could the Earth just implode one day.

I am no scientist but am interested in knowing. So any bright sparks. Let me know.

Cheers

C

[doctormann]

As several posters have pointed out, there are earthquakes happening all the time round the Pacific rim, and elsewhere. Fortunately, most are quite small in magnitude and go un-noticed except by the seismologists. However, from time to time a quake large enough to cause structural damage on land does occur.

The point to take on board though is that these major events are not predictable. Scientists in California have a vested interest in predicting quakes and, with all of the best resources available, even they cannot say more than 'the fault is locked, stress is building and there will have to be a major slippage soon' - 'soon' meaning maybe 'tomorrow' or 'next year' or 'next century'. That is really the best that science and technology can offer, right now. The situation with volcanic eruptions is a little more predictable but very far from 100%.

We also know that only a minority of (major) quakes cause tsunamis. For this to happen, the epicentre needs to be under the ocean floor and a substantial movement of the sea bed needs to take place, which does not always happen. We know that the Boxing Day event caused a major tsunami whereas that of March 28 did not - and the quakes were of similar magnitude.

Personally, I would not avoid the Andaman Sea coastal areas because of the tsunami risk. There are more important things to worry about, like getting across the road in Pattaya without being taken out by a motorbike - far more risky!

Anyway, the next major tsunami will probably be in the Atlantic. Apparently, one of the Canary Islands (can't remember which) is unstable and just needs a gentle nudge to slip into the sea. The Canaries are volcanically active, by the way. When, or if, this happens the entire Eastern seaboard of the US, together with most of the Western European coast will be trashed! So, what are you going to do? Evacuate NY now as a precaution? Anyone that thinks that a mass evacuation of NY could be carried out effectively, following a tsunami warning, is probably living on a different planet. The same applies to any large city where there aren't any convenient hills within running distance - because you can forget about using your car! Anyone in NY worried about this? You probably shouldn't be - life's too short! Anyway, if you're in Manhattan just head for the upper floors and hope that the building stays upright.

DM

[Gumballl]

I am as worried about a tsunami hitting thailand again, as I am worried that I will get rejected by a fat and ugly TBG.

Please... end this boring topic!!!!! Who gives a flying flock about freak acts of mother nature that can't be predicted. This topic is about as stupid as someone asking you if whether tomorrow you will eat corn flakes or eggs for breakfast, and live to tell about it.

Sorry for the sarcasm, and the piss poor attitude, but the OP's query belongs in the sewer with all of the other heaps of crappola.

[carlthailand]

I am as worried about a tsunami hitting thailand again, as I am worried that I will get rejected by a fat and ugly TBG.

Please... end this boring topic!!!!!  Who gives a flying flock about freak acts of mother nature that can't be predicted.  This topic is about as stupid as someone asking you if whether tomorrow you will eat corn flakes or eggs for breakfast, and live to tell about it.

Sorry for the sarcasm, and the piss poor attitude, but the OP's query belongs in the sewer with all of the other heaps of crappola.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Should of added in the I Don't give a flying fork. For peeps like GUmball.

Not that I'm worried but an interesting thread IMHO.

C

[doctormann]

Worrying about when a natural disaster is going to strike is not going to spoil my life.

Now, if there is someone who could tell me this I would be grateful. Too me they could be related. We pump millions of barrels of oil from the Earth every day. We don't replace it with anything. Therefore, we are creating huge voids underground. COuld this HAVE anything to do with the techtonic plates movement. Or could the Earth just implode one day.

I am no scientist but am interested in knowing. So any bright sparks. Let me know.

Cheers

C

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I might be able to enlighten you a little bit on this one.

The popular conception of pools of oil filling voids underground is not actually correct. The oil sits in permeable rock formations - a bit like water in a sponge - so when it is pumped out there is no void left behind and the 'sponge' fills back up with water. Remember that the oil is less dense and 'floats' on top of any water. Nevertheless, there are areas of the world where there has been subsidence of the ground because of oil extraction so the model is not 100% correct.

I don't think that there is any danger of the Earth imploding so don't lose any sleep over this. We're talking about a planet 8000 miles in diameter and all of this oil drilling activity takes place within a very thin skin, next to the surface. Not even as thick, relatively, as the skin on an orange. The current model also suggests that a large proportion of the planet is liquid - albeit under great pressure - and liquids do not implode.

DM (wearing scientist hat)

[The_Moog]

Not even as thick, relatively, as the skin on an orange. The current model also suggests that a large proportion of the planet is liquid -

I thunk i'd prefer to live on a world which is solid rock, and not one with a thin skin filled with liquid.

Anyone else coming too?

[teachparrot]

i just don't feel that it's right to go and have fun, relax and enjoy myself at a place where so many people lost their lives. it feels like i'm being disrespectful to all those people who lost their lives.

[carlthailand]

Worrying about when a natural disaster is going to strike is not going to spoil my life.

Now, if there is someone who could tell me this I would be grateful. Too me they could be related. We pump millions of barrels of oil from the Earth every day. We don't replace it with anything. Therefore, we are creating huge voids underground. COuld this HAVE anything to do with the techtonic plates movement. Or could the Earth just implode one day.

I am no scientist but am interested in knowing. So any bright sparks. Let me know.

Cheers

C

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I might be able to enlighten you a little bit on this one.

The popular conception of pools of oil filling voids underground is not actually correct. The oil sits in permeable rock formations - a bit like water in a sponge - so when it is pumped out there is no void left behind and the 'sponge' fills back up with water. Remember that the oil is less dense and 'floats' on top of any water. Nevertheless, there are areas of the world where there has been subsidence of the ground because of oil extraction so the model is not 100% correct.

I don't think that there is any danger of the Earth imploding so don't lose any sleep over this. We're talking about a planet 8000 miles in diameter and all of this oil drilling activity takes place within a very thin skin, next to the surface. Not even as thick, relatively, as the skin on an orange. The current model also suggests that a large proportion of the planet is liquid - albeit under great pressure - and liquids do not implode.

DM (wearing scientist hat)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanx for that. I don't lose sleep about it I have just pondered about it. Interesting to know.

Cheers

Carl

[Jai Dee]

Worrying about when a natural disaster is going to strike is not going to spoil my life.

Now, if there is someone who could tell me this I would be grateful. Too me they could be related. We pump millions of barrels of oil from the Earth every day. We don't replace it with anything. Therefore, we are creating huge voids underground. COuld this HAVE anything to do with the techtonic plates movement. Or could the Earth just implode one day.

I am no scientist but am interested in knowing. So any bright sparks. Let me know.

Cheers

C

I might be able to enlighten you a little bit on this one.

The popular conception of pools of oil filling voids underground is not actually correct. The oil sits in permeable rock formations - a bit like water in a sponge - so when it is pumped out there is no void left behind and the 'sponge' fills back up with water. Remember that the oil is less dense and 'floats' on top of any water. Nevertheless, there are areas of the world where there has been subsidence of the ground because of oil extraction so the model is not 100% correct.

I don't think that there is any danger of the Earth imploding so don't lose any sleep over this. We're talking about a planet 8000 miles in diameter and all of this oil drilling activity takes place within a very thin skin, next to the surface. Not even as thick, relatively, as the skin on an orange. The current model also suggests that a large proportion of the planet is liquid - albeit under great pressure - and liquids do not implode.

DM (wearing scientist hat)

Don't worry carlthailand, I have worked in the oil & gas business for 28 years, currently here in LOS, and doctormann's posting is correct.

I'd like to add that oil companies also use water-injection techniques to "assist" the remaining hydrocarbon from the various strata levels of a field or reserve that is starting to slow production.

Don't worry mate... the world is not going to cave in...

Back on topic, the unpredictability of earthquakes causing tsunamis is about the same as the unpredictability of Thai motorcycle riders as far as I'm concerned...

If your number's up.... then so be it.

I'll be back to Phuket for a holiday soon.