Germany Concerned About Thailand's Political Turmoil

[scorecard]

holy cow - The government could go broke ! No wonder they want Taksins money

The finance minister just won two highly credible international awards for his handling of the economic crisis and his future policies for Thailand, including policies to get a better picture of share the wealth, so how can anybody say the government will go broke in 3 or 4 years?

And 3 or 4 years is like tomorrow, how come someone / anyone / didn't raise the matter at least 5 to 10 years ago?

So, the claim that Thailand will go broke in 3 to 4 years doesn't seem to me to have much credibility.

Edited February 2, 2010 by scorecard

[Thai at Heart]

holy cow - The government could go broke ! No wonder they want Taksins money

The finance minister just won two highly credible international awards for his handling of the economic crisis and his future policies for Thailand, including policies to get a better picture of share the wealth, so how can anybody say the government will go broke in 3 or 4 years?

And 3 or 4 years is like tomorrow, how come someone / anyone / didn't raise the matter at least 5 to 10 years ago?

So, the claim that Thailand will go broke in 3 to 4 years doesn't seem to me to have much credibility.

The question has no credibility, so it doesn't actually deserve a credible answer. Why it was deserving of being reported?

Neuaiii maak.

Mai poot, mai bpork.

[Old Man River]

We will probably be broke by the end of February if we give Thakin his cash back.

Your are getting confused. The money has been frozen, it hasn't been seized. It isn't counted as part of Thailand's reserves unless it is seized. It is simply cash in the banks that Thaksin put it in that he cannot access.

[geriatrickid]

On mounting concerns that the Thai government would go broke in the next three to four years, the deputy premier said he did not expect the scenario to happen in that period, but it could occur in the next decade unless the government's revenue structure is improved, he warned.

On whose mounting concerns exactly? I can't recall seeing mention of those fears anywhere... Sounds to me like he's selling fear and after a consulting job!

No, it's a real concern. If you have been paying attention to all the proposed projects and compensation undertakings over the past 18 months, you too would understand the problem. When expenditures increase and revenues decrease, while the government is already running a deficit, this leads to a fiscal crisis. Thailand has seen its export derived tax revenues fall and its consumption taxes fall just as it decreased in other countries. The Thai income tax collection system has more holes in it than a piece of swiss cheese. This is the creeping silent disease that has the potential to do more harm than Mr. Thaksin, the generals and all the nasty tuktuk drivers combined. If you want to see what the future holds for Thailand unless spending is brought under control, look at the mess in Greece. Countries that seek to buy short term "social harmony" almost always end up leaving future generations enslaved by debt and and a tattered social fabric as he country's interest groups turn on each other over the shrinking pie. Unlike Greece, Thailand does not have responsible neighbors that will bail it out. Thailand has to act now before the fiscal situation pushes it into a crisis.

[smith49]

Why is it always about former Ministers? Actually I know Mr. Glos from Germany, he knows so much about Thailand like a cat about astral physics. For my opinion what Mr. Glos is saying means nothing at all, similar to the most German politicians. Mr. Glos forgot to mention how dangerous it might be for a Thai to go to East Germany. They don't make a difference there between Thais or Vietnamese people, just called Fidschis…… The past has shown that some Skinheads are just beating the shit out of people with another cultural background, or color of their skin. Some got beaten to death. Could the former minister of economics and technology explain where he had gained his knowledge? He shouldn't read newspapers like 'Die Bildzeitung' or other nonsense. Glos ,I know that you know nothing. And nobody here gives a flying shit about your weird statement.

" How about doing some homework prior typing?

Need a reminder of recent headlines in local newspapers? Here they are:

Attack on PM's house may link to red shirts: Suthep

Only justice can bring about hope and peace: HM

Politics chaotic as per usual but coup not warranted: Chavalit

Red shirts to rally at Army bases

Anupong orders troops to protect privy councilors

Suthep: Police guarding judges

I don't know what you do for your living. However, as a profit oriented business person you must be pretty stupid to invest in a country of continuous political chaos, tons of red tape and corruption.

As a tourist, who can assure you things like the Airport occupation don't repeat after Feb. 26^th? These guys saved money for month to spend "quality time here" and don't want to waste their three weeks holidays in such a mess!

And by the way- the BILD Zeitung did not even mention this issue so far. You are right in your opinion about East Germany. However, first of all the Neo Nazi movement is a minority even there and this matter is in no way related to Mr. Glos' statement! And,- last but not least, how about the treatment of Hmong people, migrant workers and Cambodian UXO victims in your country? It is always a good advice to clean up your own house first, before complaining about your neighbor's dirty carpet…

I settled down in this country, always aware that things were never how they said. I got married, invested money for living, a car and I'm pretty happy to work here. Almost eight years here taught me that it's still better here than Germany with the cartoon politicians. Glos is just a walking joke, why wasn't it the actual Minister of foreign affairs to make a statement like that? And on top of that, please look at the German Chancellor…..Amen.

TAT time to make German tourists the hub of investment.......Phuket songtow drivers get ready to scam some more Germans TIT!

[Thai at Heart]

On mounting concerns that the Thai government would go broke in the next three to four years, the deputy premier said he did not expect the scenario to happen in that period, but it could occur in the next decade unless the government's revenue structure is improved, he warned.

On whose mounting concerns exactly? I can't recall seeing mention of those fears anywhere... Sounds to me like he's selling fear and after a consulting job!

No, it's a real concern. If you have been paying attention to all the proposed projects and compensation undertakings over the past 18 months, you too would understand the problem. When expenditures increase and revenues decrease, while the government is already running a deficit, this leads to a fiscal crisis. Thailand has seen its export derived tax revenues fall and its consumption taxes fall just as it decreased in other countries. The Thai income tax collection system has more holes in it than a piece of swiss cheese. This is the creeping silent disease that has the potential to do more harm than Mr. Thaksin, the generals and all the nasty tuktuk drivers combined. If you want to see what the future holds for Thailand unless spending is brought under control, look at the mess in Greece. Countries that seek to buy short term "social harmony" almost always end up leaving future generations enslaved by debt and and a tattered social fabric as he country's interest groups turn on each other over the shrinking pie. Unlike Greece, Thailand does not have responsible neighbors that will bail it out. Thailand has to act now before the fiscal situation pushes it into a crisis.

Having lived in both countries and being a person from a place more developed than either I think I am qualified.

Greece was promising the absolutely most undeliverable benefits to its population whilst I was living there. Work for the government, final salary pension, retire at 58, take SUBSIDISED holidays to the beach in retirement. The list of benefits was incredible. If you didn't work for your family, you worked for government, or you were a no-one

Unfortunately, every person with a brain had a shop and employed their kids to short change the government:

Every person had their own company to expense their life through:

Multinationals touched the place and never got anywhere because everyone kept going on strike

University graduates in Greek history drove taxi cabs because there were no jobs for them

Greece was a laughing stock 10, 50, 100 years ago. They believed they still had something to offer the world. What they had to offer was their hate of the Turks and their superiority to the Macedonians (sorry FYROM), Albanians, and Bulgarians.

My clincher was when my old man was sitting with me on the seaside in our town. He looked at my house up the hill about 15km away and said.

"If you squint, it looks like a slum up there".

Thailand is nowhere as weak as Greece, because fortunately theThai politicians never promised anything other than to steal enough to make themselves rich. I would say that Thaksin's legacy should be treated with respect and paid for very carefully for the good of the whole country.

Edited February 2, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[animatic]

..." Hi. My names Eric G John and I'm the US Ambassador to Thailand. Bit of luck really.

I won my position in a Lucky Draw at a local mom and pop store. 2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor."

2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor. But I only came in 3rd.

PS no yank I have ever met says " Bit of luck really." Even in Boston.

[tombkk]

On mounting concerns that the Thai government would go broke in the next three to four years, the deputy premier said he did not expect the scenario to happen in that period, but it could occur in the next decade unless the government's revenue structure is improved, he warned.

On whose mounting concerns exactly? I can't recall seeing mention of those fears anywhere... Sounds to me like he's selling fear and after a consulting job!

Last year at a foreign chamber of commerce meeting, I heard that Thailand (i.e. the government) used to make 60% of its income from import duties. I can easily believe that, considering the incredibly high import duties at the time compared to the very low income taxes now; I understand that the percentage of income tax filling government coffers in developed countries is much higher.

With import duties for goods into Thailand falling, first due to WTO requirements, then FTA agreements (including ATFA), there is a real shortfall of income. In fact, imports have increased in value while income from import duties has decreased in the same time period. I was wondering at the time, and am still wondering now, how they want to compensate that.

And this is what I believe Mr. Glos meant. I have no idea about time frame and the Thai government going broke within a certain number of years. However, the concern in the business world is real.

[Thai at Heart]

On mounting concerns that the Thai government would go broke in the next three to four years, the deputy premier said he did not expect the scenario to happen in that period, but it could occur in the next decade unless the government's revenue structure is improved, he warned.

On whose mounting concerns exactly? I can't recall seeing mention of those fears anywhere... Sounds to me like he's selling fear and after a consulting job!

Last year at a foreign chamber of commerce meeting, I heard that Thailand (i.e. the government) used to make 60% of its income from import duties. I can easily believe that, considering the incredibly high import duties at the time compared to the very low income taxes now; I understand that the percentage of income tax filling government coffers in developed countries is much higher.

With import duties for goods into Thailand falling, first due to WTO requirements, then FTA agreements (including ATFA), there is a real shortfall of income. In fact, imports have increased in value while income from import duties has decreased in the same time period. I was wondering at the time, and am still wondering now, how they want to compensate that.

And this is what I believe Mr. Glos meant. I have no idea about time frame and the Thai government going broke within a certain number of years. However, the concern in the business world is real.

Absolute twaddle.

Personal Income Tax

Corporate Tax

Cigarette/Alcohol Duty

Import Duty/Petroleum Duty

You are sadly misinformed.

[mommysboy]

The junta has defeated the reds and I'm not sure there will be any more violence, the reds look increasingly impotent and sound like empty vessels. Yes it's not democracy as we know it but it is stable enough.

[sharecropper]

They need to rein in the Black Economy to broaden their tax base, especially if they do want to set up a more socialised welfare state.

Imagine if they taxed working girs income?! Or bribes.

Edited February 2, 2010 by sharecropper

[Ricardo]

2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor. But I only came in 3rd.

So you got two cases, or what, Animatic ?

[Thai at Heart]

They need to rein in the Black Economy to broaden their tax base, especially if they do want to set up a more socialised welfare state.

Imagine if they taxed working girs income?! Or bribes.

If they could tax 10% of the black economy of this country, we would be sitting in a place that Singapore would envy.

Unfortunately, the feeling that one should not have to pay tax goes way way way above anyone's payscale in this country.

Since I am not entirely sure because I hear so much crap from so many, what are the relevant taxes on a rai of farm land, please let us/me know; because as far as I know there is ZERO.

And for the geographers out there, what would 100 baht per rai on arable land produce in revenue?

Edited February 2, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[spirit47]

Can only make business with Thaipeople, and they have their own way...

Last time I found Sanook...ebay Thailand, what a joke.

Better buy gold than investing money here...

[animatic]

2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor. But I only came in 3rd.

So you got two cases, or what, Animatic ?

Wrong punchline....

No, that was 1st Prize, and a Bavarian Snitzle sandwich.

3rd Prize was appointment as USA Ambassador to Thailand.

[Publicus]

Dr Trairong said he told the minister that Thailand had explained to foreign investors for proper understanding of the situations and assured them that no coup would occur because the current political turmoil is not severe enough to warrant a coup.

I always love it when government ministers or whoever feel the need to "explain things for proper understanding"

Like when ambassadors were summoned to be given a clear picture of the charges against Thaksin etc.

" Hi. My names Eric G John and I'm the US Ambassador to Thailand. Bit of luck really. I won my position in a Lucky Draw at a local mom and pop store. 2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor."

Since a hundred years the position of US ambassador to Thailand has required an incumbent thoroughly versed  of all aspects of Thai society and civilization. In the view of the US, Thailand is neither Monte Carlo nor is it Monaco. The US is the place where the king was born and spent his early childhood. 

So your post in this regard won first prize - which is a week in Kon Khen. Of course, 2nd prize is two weeks in Kon Khen. Third prize is three weeks in Kon Khen.

[Tejas]

3) They must attack a growing xenophobia, anti-foreigner sentiment in the country.

Are you referring to westerners or another group of foreigners?

All foreigners (people who are not Thai).

From an economic point of view, it is not that important unless it leads to economic policies that persuade investors to put their money in other countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, etc.

Tourism and foreign retirment, for example, are being negatively impacted by Draconian immigration policies that are clearly rooted in xenophobia.

So, it is not xenophobia per se, it is the policy impact of it that is of most concern to investors.

Large corporations look for stability and economic policies that maximize the probability that they will make money in Thailand.

[mca]

Dr Trairong said he told the minister that Thailand had explained to foreign investors for proper understanding of the situations and assured them that no coup would occur because the current political turmoil is not severe enough to warrant a coup.

I always love it when government ministers or whoever feel the need to "explain things for proper understanding"

Like when ambassadors were summoned to be given a clear picture of the charges against Thaksin etc.

" Hi. My names Eric G John and I'm the US Ambassador to Thailand. Bit of luck really. I won my position in a Lucky Draw at a local mom and pop store. 2nd prize was a case of St Ides Malt Liquor."

Since a hundred years the position of US ambassador to Thailand has required an incumbent thoroughly versed of all aspects of Thai society and civilization. In the view of the US, Thailand is neither Monte Carlo nor is it Monaco. The US is the place where the king was born and spent his early childhood.

So your post in this regard won first prize - which is a week in Kon Khen. Of course, 2nd prize is two weeks in Kon Khen. Third prize is three weeks in Kon Khen.

Actually my point being (sorry if it wasn't clear) that it's unlikely that a person of the stature of the US Ambassador would need things explaining to him as if he were some dullard who'd won his position.

BTW. Been to KK for any length of time? In fact been to KK ever?

[CLOD]

The point the German Minister is making is this,

"<deleted> is going to invest in a place like this with such a bent, corrupt, Human Rights Abusing , undemocratic administration.

[bubblegum]

1) They must change their education system so that graduates are competitive in the global marketplace.

3) They must attack a growing xenophobia, anti-foreigner sentiment in the country.

4) They must address human rights issues.

5) They must take the immigration system, flush it down the toilet where it belongs, and start over.

6) They must make strong changes to foreign business rules, especially for small scale businesses.

7) They must address income inequality, especially between rural and urban residents.

8) They must address environmental problems like air pollution.

9) They must learn something about urban planning.

10) Learn how to think ??

[tingtongfarang]

The point the German Minister is making is this,

"<deleted> is going to invest in a place like this with such a bent, corrupt, Human Rights Abusing , undemocratic administration.

Exactly! but you forgot to add xenophobic.

[Tejas]

The point the German Minister is making is this,

"<deleted> is going to invest in a place like this with such a bent, corrupt, Human Rights Abusing , undemocratic administration.

I think that is how politicians talk. In the real world corporations join hands with just about any country that can make them money. That seems to be a historical fact (sad but true).

IMHO, it is not so much about corruption, human rights, etc., it is more about "can we make lots of money here."

The solution for Thailand involves many changes in many sectors.

But, if corporations (that actually own the politicians) think they can make more money in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia........that is where the money will go.

In fact, for the past ten years or so that is where lots of money has been going.

Thailand seems to be putting up fences to foreign investment of the type that would make it more like Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia have torn down fences, for the most part.

And corporations like stability and an educated workforce.

IMHO, workers in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia are better educated.

So, where do you put your $$$$$$$

Personally, what the representative of Germany is saying sounds nice, but I think on a deeper level it is about more than just political turmoil (something that seems to be a constant in Thailand).

The fact is that there are very influential people in Thailand that do not want to share the MONEY PIE with foreign companies.

They like the status quo and will defend it even if the ship goes down (actually, they will never recognize the ship is going down).

Pretend you are an extremely rich owner of a major foreign based corporation (human rights is not your top priority.....making money is) and ask yourself this question: Why invest in Thailand instead of Vietnam, Malaysia or Cambodia?

[Samuian]

No wonder after all Mr.Thaksin did reside some month in the diplomatic refuge of Germany... Bad Godesberg, even he wasn't supposed to be there!

And yes... business is business, the german government does condone business with Iran and once with Irak!

It's about money and economics, not about the welfare of people or a state as such!

And Businesses stay, while governments come and go - they know - you know!

Mr.Glos.....

[mccw]

"Can we be assured zat our sunbeds are secure?"

[Bagwan]

The fact is that there are very influential people in Thailand that do not want to share the MONEY PIE with foreign companies.

They like the status quo and will defend it even if the ship goes down (actually, they will never recognize the ship is going down).

Would anybody from Carlsberg care to make an observation on this? I can't remember why they packed their tents and disappeared into the night but I'm sure that the way money was shared was involved.

My first reaction before I started to read the thread was that maybe a German politician was drawing attention to the fact that he thought Thailand was beginning to resemble Germany of the 1930's. Red shirts - brown shirts? Beware all you 'freedom fighters' - look at what happened to the Browns.

[geriatrickid]

The finance minister just won two highly credible international awards for his handling of the economic crisis and his future policies for Thailand, including policies to get a better picture of share the wealth, so how can anybody say the government will go broke in 3 or 4 years?

And 3 or 4 years is like tomorrow, how come someone / anyone / didn't raise the matter at least 5 to 10 years ago?

So, the claim that Thailand will go broke in 3 to 4 years doesn't seem to me to have much credibility.

What were these 2 "highly credible" awards? I can only think of 1 recent "award".

One of the reasons I was so vociferous in pointing out that the Global Finance Minister of the Year prize given by a low circulation inconsequential magazine (29,000 readers) was insignificant was precisely because I anticipated that some gullible person would use it in a thread at a later date. The original thread from January lists the reasons why FM Korn received the award and none of them are a strong endorsement of Thailand's fiscal policy. With all due respect to the FM, due to political circumstances, he cannot manage the economy as he would like. I do not doubt for a minute that FM Korn is a competent and decent man. It's just that too many people have their sticky fingers in a shrinking pot of money.

Please look at the major source of recent big ticket fundings in Thailand: Foreign governments. It comes in the form of guarantees for the infrastructure projects that will purchase the goods of the foreign countries providing the guarantees (e.g. Bangkok's subway - Germany & Japan).

I draw your attention to the large expenditures and promises of expenditures over the past 18 months. Where is the money supposed to come from? The airport fiasco cost money. The handouts of money to various coalition partners requires money. The increased military budget requires money. The promises for increased healthcare and education will all require funding.

Now look at government revenues: They have decreased. With a lacklustre GDP, the finance minister cannot perform miracles.

Thailand has experienced the same problems with declining revenues as other countries. Those countries that do not reign in spending or spend wisely are eventually going to crash and burn under the burden of debt. Greece, Portugal & Spain are facing this problem now. The burden of bailing out the aforementioned 3 countries will fall on the other EU members, with a large part of that burden being carried by Germany and France. The German politician was sharing the realities faced by the EU.

This wasn't an attack on the finance minister, but rather a call upon Thailand's vested interests to let him do his job.

[thaijasmine]

The solution for Thailand involves many changes in many sectors.

But, if corporations (that actually own the politicians) think they can make more money in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia........that is where the money will go.

In fact, for the past ten years or so that is where lots of money has been going.

Thailand seems to be putting up fences to foreign investment of the type that would make it more like Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia have torn down fences, for the most part.

And corporations like stability and an educated workforce.

IMHO, workers in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia are better educated.

So, where do you put your $$$$

I totally agree. It is the enthusiasm and energy of the young people that strikes me-

particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia. For example young people are prepared to learn any language

it takes to compete - I met one waitress in Phnom Penh that was studying English and Mandarin at the same

time. Wheras in Thailand you still have this attitude of surprise the foreigner

hasn't yet learnt to speak Thai even though the Thai person who expresses surprise

may not speak much English. They dont seem to care in Thailand about globalisation.

[hammered]

The solution for Thailand involves many changes in many sectors.

But, if corporations (that actually own the politicians) think they can make more money in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia........that is where the money will go.

In fact, for the past ten years or so that is where lots of money has been going.

Thailand seems to be putting up fences to foreign investment of the type that would make it more like Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Japan.

Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia have torn down fences, for the most part.

And corporations like stability and an educated workforce.

IMHO, workers in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia are better educated.

So, where do you put your $$$$

I totally agree. It is the enthusiasm and energy of the young people that strikes me-

particularly in Vietnam and Cambodia. For example young people are prepared to learn any language

it takes to compete - I met one waitress in Phnom Penh that was studying English and Mandarin at the same

time. Wheras in Thailand you still have this attitude of surprise the foreigner

hasn't yet learnt to speak Thai even though the Thai person who expresses surprise

may not speak much English. They dont seem to care in Thailand about globalisation.

I dont know what circles you mix in but I find Thai people studying to learn Manadarin, English, Japanese and German and often a combination. Mandarin is increasingly taught at school levels and th eteaching of English is widespread. Such things as logisitics and engineering are also widely studied.

Cambodia is not going to be a serious competitor on most business levels as the workforce are nowhere near as educated. The infrastructure is nowhere as good and things like continuos supply of electriicty are not guranteed to anywhere near the level of Thailand. The wetern part of Cambodia is better sevred by roads ect into Thailand than to Cambodian ports of any worth, but this is of little use when Cambodia's PM wages a cold war with Thailand. Vietnam is becoming a competitor to Thailand.

Poltical turmoil and more importantly the Maptaput court decison mean frustrated foreign investors including Ford today are making threats and noises. Thailand does need to sort the Maptaput decision out if they want to secure things in the longer term future but right now the investors are pretty much sabre rattling and dont really want to have to change investmebnt plans. Thailand though needs to revisit or find an acceptable compromise to reaasure these investors and needs to do so within a 6-12 month period.

I recently was talking to a some businessmen who had been in Cambodia and then to Thailand. They summed it by saying Thailand was like a western country in comparioson to backwards Cambodia.

There may be plenty we dont like about Thailand but it really needs to be judged as it is in reality.

[Tejas]

Both of us were talking about the "general workforce."

Of course, you can find some Thais that are serious about other languages.

They are in a small minority. Most Thais can barely speak English.

In Cambodia you will find loads of students/workers who speak English well.

In general terms, you will see better educated students in Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia.

And you will find that they are less lazy than Thais.

I could say the same for China and Japan.

Disagree........no problem. As stated, there are exceptions.

But money talks. And the investment money is going to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.

What is happening is a shift in strategic power in the region.

In biology there it is often said "adapt or go extinct." Put differently, "change or die."

I think that sums it up the choice Thailand must make.

[Samuian]

Last couple of statements seem like opinions of half empty glass and half full glass!