Does Thaksin Have The Right Weapons To Oust Thai Government?

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Does Thaksin have the right weapons to oust Govt?

By Piyanart Srivalo

BANGKOK: -- Now that the court has ruled the seizure of Bt46.37 billion of his assets, fugitive ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra's one and only goal is to push for the dissolution of the House as soon as possible, a Pheu Thai Party source said.

And Thaksin will do anything, ranging from manipulating the parliamentary system to street protests, to achieve this goal.

At the moment, the ex-premier has three weapons in hand:

- Appealing to the general assembly of the Supreme Court: The defence team has 30 days to appeal and cite the fact that the Assets Examination Committee (AEC) had been appointed and given court-like powers by the 2006 coup-makers.

The argument is similar to the one successfully used by late ex-PM Chatichai Choonhavan and his Cabinet members whose assets were seized by a panel set up by the generals who staged the 1991 coup. The Supreme Court later ordered that the assets be returned on grounds that the panel was not a court and thus had no authority to order the seizure.

Similarly, Thaksin's defense team can also question the National Anti-Corruption Commission's authority in following up the case after the AEC's term expired.

Another argument could be that the five measures cited by the court as inappropriately benefiting Shin Corp were in fact part of the legitimate process of running the country and that the money obtained from the sale of Shin Corp shares came from Singapore's Temasek Holdings, not the taxpayers.

However, it remains to be seen whether the Thaksin side will be able to produce "new" evidence to justify the appeal. According to legal experts, the new evidence should be different to that presented by the defence earlier.

- Mass rally: The red-shirt leaders are promising something akin to war, with a mass rally that will begin in the provinces on March 12 and move to the capital two days later.

The leaders have announced that this protest would bring down the elitist polity, oust the government and get the House dissolved in seven days. They promised that one million people and 100,000 pickup trucks would be mobilised in the march. Obviously, they believe that at least a million people would feel sorry for Thaksin now that his assets have been seized.

However, political observers expect the numbers to be far lower, while Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban is closely monitoring the situation.

- Filing a censure debate: The source said the opposition Pheu Thai Party would not be submitting the no-confidence motion for now, but will wait and see how the rally goes. The reason for waiting is that under the Constitution, a House cannot be dissolved if it is hearing a censure motion.

If the red shirts do topple the government, then a no-confidence motion would be unnecessary.

Besides, Pheu Thai alone cannot oust the government with its no-confidence motion as the government has a majority in the House. Therefore, it would need support from coalition parties, and there has been speculation that coalition partner Chart Thai Pattana was considering switching sides. Rumour mills even said that Chart Thai Pattana's chief adviser, Maj-General Sanan Kachornprasart's name would be put forward as a PM candidate during the censure motion.

Yet, Pheu Thai's latest "wait-and-see" tactic might work out to be good because apparently its leaders were caught in a conflict. Apparently, the party's chief adviser Chalerm Yoobumrung vowed to withdraw from leading the debate if an outsider was proposed as candidate for the PM's post.

Now, it's our turn to wait and see if Thaksin's strategies succeed.

-- The Nation 2010-03-03

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[neverdie]

I dont know about the right weapons but if 100,000 pickups mobilise anywhere there will be massive fuel shortages, me thinks i better fuel up the day before.

[kg1947]

I dont know about the right weapons but if 100,000 pickups mobilise anywhere there will be massive fuel shortages, me thinks i better fuel up the day before.

........... March 12/13/14 : book yourself into a resort by the beach or up in the mountain, stockup on liquid necessities,

make sure there's plenty of ice, snacks - who cares about gasoline ! Back to normal (hopefully !! ) after March 15.

Cheers !!

[Phuket1]

Some one has to end this and quick. But then again both sides know how lucrative it can be to be in the government so its worth to fight for.

[Who, me ?]

Anyway, the 1,000,000 man march will certainly look more like a 20-30,000 , and the 100,000 pick up truck, more like 2,000 at most....

Nothing to worry , they'll surely have a welcome committee somewhere before reaching BKK

[Thai at Heart]

To get 1mn people congregated in one place, they will need 100k pick ups anyway.

I can't see them being able to get close to these numbers in one place at one time. There are a percentage of people who care vehemently about democracy, but getting them all into one place at one time to protest only under the guise of "democracy" isn't possible.

The mere fact that a lot don't want to go simply because it would appear that they would be protesting to return Thaksin's ill gotten gains means that they won't get close to this number. Although TIT, lets wait and see.

[animatic]

Regardless of his aims, he is not the all powerful baron he once was.

The recent conviction, no matter how he spins it, shows him a diminished force.

For all his blustering, the courts showed equananimous logic in taking much, but not all, of the cash,

even as the numbers talked of in court were 30-40% MORE than what was on line.

ie. his actions caused well over 100 million baht damage to the country, but they only

took 46+ million. There was a demonstrated logic to take more, and not taking it

was 'the compromise' part many expected.

The no confidence vote, is the same charge they have tried 2 times so far with no traction.

But they feel compelled to try it again.

His red factions show more and more their factional splintering.

Differing shades of red from vermilion to slightly pinkish don't play as well together as hoped for.

Always easy to find 30 foolish old pussies to cry over Thaksins losses on TV,

but much harder to find a million who will go in harms way for their liege lord,

especially after Songkran last year.

Edited March 3, 2010 by animatic

[timekeeper]

Anyway, the 1,000,000 man march will certainly look more like a 20-30,000 , and the 100,000 pick up truck, more like 2,000 at most....

Nothing to worry , they'll surely have a welcome committee somewhere before reaching BKK

as i have said elsewhere:

to stop the proposed ''million man'' march legitimately the police should do simple roadside checks on the transport.

check bulbs, tyres, horn, handbrake, windscreen wipers, road tax, insurance and driving license

if they do not pass muster then hold the vehicle until its fixed or the documents are produced

i suspect they would need huge holding areas to contain them all

no wheels-no show-no problem

[hammered]

While they will struggle to get the UDD supporters who are pro-democracy as they see it but not so or even anti Thaksin, the fact that the robber baron MPs of the PTP have announced they will back it means the rally will potentially get more numbers than the UDD could get. These local feudal controllers are not at all happy at the governmebnts new rice scheme which cuts them out of controlling that money which nopw goes more directly to farmers and so are doubly motivated.

This rally is about Thaksin and his money and the party will turn out their supporters one way or another. Quite how many that means we will see.

The multi leadership nature of the joint UDD, other reds, PTP and organised "groups" from provinces abutting Bangkok controlled by PTP feudal masters along with the inevitable cash fueled boost means things will be very difficult to control and unpredictable.

The unexpected partial seizure created room for a lessening of tension however it seems it is not going to be taken and the battle for power among the elite will continue to the detriment of everyone else.

[Samuian]

Some one has to end this and quick. But then again both sides know how lucrative it can be to be in the government so its worth to fight for.

This won't stop, it's NOT about "his life savings", this is only the hook,

it's about the man's return to power, revenge and fulfilling his dream of dreams!

He won't stop.... the "life savings" is what he needs to pay the mercenaries,

rig the elections, buy votes.

[Thai at Heart]

Anyway, the 1,000,000 man march will certainly look more like a 20-30,000 , and the 100,000 pick up truck, more like 2,000 at most....

Nothing to worry , they'll surely have a welcome committee somewhere before reaching BKK

as i have said elsewhere:

to stop the proposed ''million man'' march legitimately the police should do simple roadside checks on the transport.

check bulbs, tyres, horn, handbrake, windscreen wipers, road tax, insurance and driving license

if they do not pass muster then hold the vehicle until its fixed or the documents are produced

i suspect they would need huge holding areas to contain them all

no wheels-no show-no problem

The car park in Korat would probably be visible from space.

[otherstuff1957]

simply because it would appear that they would be protesting to return Thaksin's ill gotten gains means that they won't get close to this number.

Agreed! If the Reds could rally around a meaningful issue they could probably get 100's of thousands of people out & bring the gov't down, just the way that PAD did. However, quite a few people upcountry just aren't going to get excited about a billionaire losing some of his money. Unless the Gov't screws up and gives them some sort of flashpoint. this rally will be just as anticlimactic as the other recent protests have been.

[geriatrickid]

I do not think that Mr. Thaksin has much say in the matter anymore. Those that wish a change in government will continue to use Mr. Thaksin as a rallying point whether he likes it or not. I do not see how a million man march will accomplish anything or even topple the government. Nor does the continued bubbling up of random acts of vanadlism/violence serve any purpose except the interests of speculators.

Think about what's different with this "protest"? Historically, mass strikes and labour disruptions accompany political change. To date, nothing has been mounted to support Mr. Thaksin's movement. If these guys were really well organized and people that disillusioned with the current state of affairs we would be seeing massive labour protests. Nothing. Nada. Not even a student protest.

The buses, trains and planes are running. The ports are open. Electricity is still flowing in sufficent quantites to electrocute hapless souls. The water plants and oil refineries are working. Until something disrupts the comfort of Bangkok, it's no game and business as usual.

Until, there is an actual mobilization, all this talk of marches and pickups is just that- talk and we all know that talk is cheap.

[Thai at Heart]

simply because it would appear that they would be protesting to return Thaksin's ill gotten gains means that they won't get close to this number.

Agreed! If the Reds could rally around a meaningful issue they could probably get 100's of thousands of people out & bring the gov't down, just the way that PAD did. However, quite a few people upcountry just aren't going to get excited about a billionaire losing some of his money. Unless the Gov't screws up and gives them some sort of flashpoint. this rally will be just as anticlimactic as the other recent protests have been.

That is now the UDD's problem. Is any protest coming about Thaksin's money or democracy? Impossible to separate the two issues now.

[Bagwan]

:D

Quote

"Another argument could be that the five measures cited by the court as inappropriately benefiting Shin Corp were in fact part of the legitimate process of running the country and that the money obtained from the sale of Shin Corp shares came from Singapore's Temasek Holdings, not the taxpayers."

The logic of the insane. It totally ignores the fact that the taxpayers paid for the assets of Shin Corp. The sale to Temasek merely converted the assets into the folding stuff.

With legal arguments like this who needs a legal system??????????????????

[huanga]

Anyway, the 1,000,000 man march will certainly look more like a 20-30,000 , and the 100,000 pick up truck, more like 2,000 at most....

Nothing to worry , they'll surely have a welcome committee somewhere before reaching BKK

just figuring out the logistics for the toilet ( for the 1,000,000) will probably be a good reason to disperse.

[yoshiwara]

Some one has to end this and quick. But then again both sides know how lucrative it can be to be in the government so its worth to fight for.

This won't stop, it's NOT about "his life savings", this is only the hook,

it's about the man's return to power, revenge and fulfilling his dream of dreams!

He won't stop.... the "life savings" is what he needs to pay the mercenaries,

rig the elections, buy votes.

Indeed.

The one weapon Thaksin does not have is the economy. The economy is recovering. No significant part of the establishment is going to risk the economy so that Thaksin can go on a revenge escapade. As the threat of a double-dip recedes, there goes the wave for him to surf on. He might be able to pay for a few demos and encourage destabilisation stunts but now his support is reduced to a significant rump and the momentum to secure majority support is an outgoing tide.

[SomTumTiger]

Does Thaksin have the Right Weapons to Oust Thai Government?

Jatuporn, Noppadon, Charlerm, Jakrabop, Pojamon, the Damapong clan.

Easy Answer - No

[robert00]

I dont know about the right weapons but if 100,000 pickups mobilise anywhere there will be massive fuel shortages, me thinks i better fuel up the day before.

........... March 12/13/14 : book yourself into a resort by the beach or up in the mountain, stockup on liquid necessities,

make sure there's plenty of ice, snacks - who cares about gasoline ! Back to normal (hopefully !! ) after March 15.

Cheers !!

Yes I agree, get a nice big screen TV and watch the scene from your launch chair with a tinny in your hand.

[robert00]

Does Thaksin have the Right Weapons to Oust Thai Government?

Jatuporn, Noppadon, Charlerm, Jakrabop, Pojamon, the Damapong clan.

Easy Answer - No

Just wait and see Mate!!!!

[junglist]

The only thing Thaksin seems to have these days is a lot of hot air and a bunch red leaders with couple of extra chromosomes. The people up north should be irate; he is using them and making them look like fools.

[Squigy]

I dont know about the right weapons but if 100,000 pickups mobilise anywhere there will be massive fuel shortages, me thinks i better fuel up the day before.

Why do members of this Forum continue to discuss a person who gets great pleasure in keeping his name in the media of Thailand. A person who is really just a common criminal.

Let's all forget about him, write no more about him nor his cronies.

I am waiting for a change in topic on this Forum that will in someway will make Thailand a better place for all.

[slapout]

Anyway, the 1,000,000 man march will certainly look more like a 20-30,000 , and the 100,000 pick up truck, more like 2,000 at most....

Nothing to worry , they'll surely have a welcome committee somewhere before reaching BKK

as i have said elsewhere:

to stop the proposed ''million man'' march legitimately the police should do simple roadside checks on the transport.

check bulbs, tyres, horn, handbrake, windscreen wipers, road tax, insurance and driving license

if they do not pass muster then hold the vehicle until its fixed or the documents are produced

i suspect they would need huge holding areas to contain them all

no wheels-no show-no problem

road checks set to monitor breath checks/alcohol, urine tests for drugs, and the infamous explosive/drug detectors as well as vehicle safety checks, and the 1,000,000 man march will have an attendance similar to the final stages of the 'Trail of tears'.

[animatic]

as i have said elsewhere:

to stop the proposed ''million man'' march legitimately the police should do simple roadside checks on the transport.

check bulbs, tyres, horn, handbrake, windscreen wipers, road tax, insurance and driving license

if they do not pass muster then hold the vehicle until its fixed or the documents are produced

i suspect they would need huge holding areas to contain them all

no wheels-no show-no problem

Easy to do and actually a true public service: Stop all dodgy vehicles coming to Bangkok or just southwards.

If they ALSO are filled with red shirt agitators or pawns of the puyais and liege lord so much the better.

[animatic]

Some indication of this sides hypocrisies is that the Reds spout pro-democracy yet need to have

the up country Puyais and Rice Barons mobilize their serfs just to get a decent turn out.

And in this case those rice moguls are motivated by the current Democratic Government actually

doing something constructive and concrete for the real workers up north via the rice schemes.

That they can't get traction on pure democracy arguments says much without the push from

those least attracted to a real working democracy; the feudal rice barons of the north.

I think most people can see how ineffective the PTP is hel_l they can't even pick a national leader,

from their own ranks, between the utterly inept and the ego-maniacs they have on roster... pretty pathetic.

But they are under pressure from the rice millers and northern profiteers to stop the current rice payment system

from taking root, before the average saomchai realizes they are getting a better deal, and so they will try the

censure motion with the same arguments they haven't gotten working twice before, and even Chalerm doesn't

want to lead the debate if he doesn't get to be top pig in the pile...More bathos for sure.

Seems Korn has things as well in hand as possible considering external factors,

and even though Thaksin rode to fame milking a similar up turn from a crash,

Korn and Abhisit are actual putting into place more concrete, and long term viable,

plans for the nation as a whole, and not just short term sops for the working classes

to buy votes and loyalty.

I suspect this last legal case as explained at extreme length has brought home to

many weary Thais the extent of Thaksins malfeasances in office, and compared that to

how little these sops to the Issanese did in the long run to improve their lives.

Instead of paying for medical you pay 30baht, but then tea money too,

and it's not as good as before...

As some of said there is no turning back to the pre-Thaksin era of solely 2 tier lives,

the super rich and the super poor, there will be upward mobility and improved lives for most.

And no 'street revolution' in Kuhn Giles/Jakrapobs "French Revolution style" will improve that gradual rise,

but only retard that progress, much as we have seen the excessive yellow and red protests retard progress.

Thaksins next moves are critical, either he pulls off something or he fades away, and plots some more.

Would that the prat just retired to that Dalmation island in the sea and went happy with a boat load of

Thai girls and somtam coming in periodically. But I doubt his festering ego can last long after the

heady brew of power and patronage is no longer his to savor on full droughts. He feeds on that power.

Still making a move and having it be effective are two different issues.

Does he have the weapons to take over... doubtful.

Does have enough to create chaos or severe damage to Thailand, maybe so still.

Will he try... best guess yes.... fight to the end yada yada yada.

Edited March 3, 2010 by animatic

[junglist]

If Mossad can get rid of the top Hamas leader in Dubai with foreigners using false passports can some one do away with Thaksin.

It is against my religion but, “Amen Brother, Amen”. If we all pitch in we could have you on the plain before midnight and you would make CNN new before breakfast. Let me make a couple calls. You better start packing!

[junglist]

The answer is simple “Yes, he has ice cream”!

post_a106862_00_03.jpg.html

[Sao Jiang Mai]

Drove past the rabid RCM51 last night at 10 where a stage was set and a fire and brimstone speech was being given by some man...15 people in the audience. Squid vendors looked forlorn. Nah, I don't think he has the weapon, and it is time for him to slowly fade away.

[gemini81]

SOS- Lost cause!

His little ship of gold is sinking faster than the titantic. hard to buy your way out of the bottom now that the money (is getting) low.

Maybe like many other things, if you ignore it, it goes away. He's already gone away, so hopefully the media will just ignore him and this can be a small chapter in the history books of crooks that were.

[animatic]

10 tonnes of Kosher Chicken Wings and the problem would be solved.

A stroke would do it. Nothing too un-buddhist.