Thai Security Forces Split By Protests: Analysts

[webfact]

Thai security forces split by protests: analysts - Analysis

by Patrick Falby

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Two bungled operations against "Red Shirt" protesters in less than a week may point to a split in Thailand's military that has stymied Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government, analysts say.

The failed actions -- an attempted crackdown last weekend, which killed at least 18 civilians and five soldiers, and a botched arrest of Red leaders Friday -- came after the administration vowed to instill order in the capital.

"This puts the government in a very difficult position. They can never really be sure that their orders will truly be implemented," said Michael Nelson, of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

The Reds took to the streets over a month ago and currently occupy Bangkok's main commercial district, vowing to continue their campaign until they oust Abhisit, accusing his government of being illegitimate and elitist.

But when security forces attempted to sweep Reds out of Bangkok's historic district last weekend, it suffered a humiliating retreat in the face of Thailand's worst political violence in nearly two decades.

Both sides accused the other of using assault rifles in the clash, and media images also emerged of mysterious black-clad gunmen in the thick of the mayhem.

Abhisit promised a full investigation, blaming "terrorists", while some spoke of a "third hand" who targeted commanding army officers, including a Thai colonel who oversaw the dispersal of Red protests last year.

However Pavin Chachavalpongpun, research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, said it was likely that some disgruntled commanders had begun to back Red Shirt protests.

"I have heard from my inner sources that there's a split in the military, that some of the military men have defected to the Red camp," he said.

The army draws most of its lower ranks from poor areas sympathetic to protesters, he added, and police are known to be fans of Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman, whose ousting as premier triggered the first Red demonstrations years ago.

The military constantly looms in the background of Thailand, which has seen 18 coups and coup attempts since 1932. The army also remained in charge for a year after the 2006 coup toppled Thaksin, until polls in December 2007.

But while the military appeared to fully turn against Thaksin several years ago, there is now talk of "watermelon" soldiers -- green outside, red inside -- who have come to support the movement backed by the fugitive leader.

Anthony Davis, analyst for Jane's Defence Weekly, said he believed some Reds had organised a "military wing" after their similar demonstrations last year failed to unseat Abhisit's government and were swept from the streets.

"You've got a very worrying convergence of elements of Red Shirts who have military training, some of them doubtless former Rangers (border guards)," Davis said.

"Then there's current military, the so-called watermelons, willing to feed intelligence and very probably munitions," he added.

The second dramatic failure occurred Friday when commandos stormed a Bangkok hotel where leaders of the Red Shirt protest movement were hiding and the suspects managed to escape.

One leading Red Shirt climbed down an electric cable from the third floor of the hotel in Bangkok's northern outskirts before being rushed away by jubilant supporters, despite the presence of dozens of riot police nearby.

"It's a very difficult position for the government and of course it puts the Red Shirts in a good position because they obviously have informants," Nelson said.

In response to the bungling, Abhisit made army chief Anupong Paojinda head of security operations in the capital. The military also announced it was planning to disperse the thousands of Reds, but had not decided the timing.

Analysts said the move was one of Abhisit's few remaining options as he attempts to cling to power. But it could bring more violence to Bangkok.

"In a way, it allows Abhisit to test the military," Pavin said from Singapore. "(But) when you a let military control a situation it hardly ever ends nicely and peacefully. There's a possibility it might turn nasty."

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-04-18

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Publicus]

Agreed that Abhisit has handed this bag of shyt to Gen Anupong and that Anupong can only lose because if Anupong does nothing he'll fail and if he takes action he'll be run out of the country. Abhisit inherited the mess of the divisions within the military, the fact of which which are not news, so Abhisit is going to let the military which hasn't been effective in supporting the government go up in flames.

I joked some time ago during previous discussion of Reds in the military that the army should help us out by identifying which commanders and which units are on which side by wearing either red or yellow armbands on their uniforms. At this point however I seriously make the suggestion.

The army had been a unified and all powerful arbitrating force in the past, but the Redshirt movement as created by Thaksin is a sociopolitical force led by cynics. The generals are as divided by their loyalties to two opposing centers of power and money as are the population and, for the first time, as noted in several analyses of the present and unprecedented Thai crucible, so are a number of the rank and file conscript troops who by the entrenched elitist structure and organization of the society necessarily come from the hills and the fields of toil, labor and planned exclusion.

The army, previously and always the final abrbiter, is presently too divided to do much other than to form a circular firing squad. Incipient civil war is what we have.

Edited April 18, 2010 by Publicus

[grandpops]

As a poster said yesterday.

If the military were to split, it would be Colonels and Generals on one side and fighting soldeirs on the other.

All we need now to set it off is for the Government to encourage the PAD and its grannies army out onto the street.. Wait, whats that we see at Army HQ? Why, its the PAD defying the same SOE, but with full backing from Abhisit.

Sure they have sent them to the Army camp to try and pressure the soldiers into killing red shirts. Make the recruits think they should do something to uphold and protect their jaded regime. But all the while besmirching the good name of the one person in the kingdom who is their only rallying cry at the moment. No policies, no elections called for (they would lose them) and alas, still no understanding of the lives of people outside the wonderful yellow city of Bangkok! Go Toffs go seems to be the cry to arms - not for them to fight though, nor to try and resolve, but for the Army to kill the ones they fear will soon want their slice of the pie.

At least some of us can see through this tactic. Some, however, will be on here to post in a minute to prove that they see and hear no evil when it comes to this tired elitist rearguard action.

[Paul123456]

This article seems to be based on the opinion of one academic living in Singapore.

Thanks - but not really interested in their views - I'm sure it will make for a good paper or research grant though.

:-)

Oh - and Grandpops - you forgot perhaps that Mr Abhisit has offered an early election and it was rejected by the Red mob.

Edited April 18, 2010 by Paul123456

[thepodest]

Anyone else here thinks that the biggest trouble maker in Thailand is the military ?

Some points

- the coup which instigated all of this

- influence over the government

- GT200 scandal and air balloon thingy

- failure to clear up protests effectively

- now is not listening government's orders

Edited April 18, 2010 by thepodest

[pedro01]

Anyone else here thinks that the biggest trouble maker in Thailand is the military ?

Some points

- the coup which instigated all of this

- influence over the government

- GT200 scandal and air balloon thingy

- failure to clear up protests effectively

- now is not listening government's orders

good point

[retarius]

Go Grandpops.go....

Agree 100% and I cannot understand these right wing authoritarian types who fill these boards with their yellow lies based on Abhisit's propaganda...as they say, right wing nuts never let facts get in the way of an excuse of a massacre....

[OzMick]

Go Grandpops.go....

Agree 100% and I cannot understand these right wing authoritarian types who fill these boards with their yellow lies based on Abhisit's propaganda...as they say, right wing nuts never let facts get in the way of an excuse of a massacre....

I agree. Could you go with him?

[scorecard]

Go Grandpops.go....

Agree 100% and I cannot understand these right wing authoritarian types who fill these boards with their yellow lies based on Abhisit's propaganda...as they say, right wing nuts never let facts get in the way of an excuse of a massacre....

I agree. Could you go with him?

So all yellows are liars.

Well what's your comment on the deliberate open lies told to the reds many times by jatuporn and his clan?

[scorecard]

Agreed that Abhisit has handed this bag of shyt to Gen Anupong and that Anupong can only lose because if Anupong does nothing he'll fail and if he takes action he'll be run out of the country. Abhisit inherited the mess of the divisions within the military, the fact of which which are not news, so Abhisit is going to let the military which hasn't been effective in supporting the government go up in flames.

I joked some time ago during previous discussion of Reds in the military that the army should help us out by identifying which commanders and which units are on which side by wearing either red or yellow armbands on their uniforms. At this point however I seriously make the suggestion.

The army had been a unified and all powerful arbitrating force in the past, but the Redshirt movement as created by Thaksin is a sociopolitical force led by cynics. The generals are as divided by their loyalties to two opposing centers of power and money as are the population and, for the first time, as noted in several analyses of the present and unprecedented Thai crucible, so are a number of the rank and file conscript troops who by the entrenched elitist structure and organization of the society necessarily come from the hills and the fields of toil, labor and planned exclusion.

The army, previously and always the final abrbiter, is presently too divided to do much other than to form a circular firing squad. Incipient civil war is what we have.

[scorecard]

Agreed that Abhisit has handed this bag of shyt to Gen Anupong and that Anupong can only lose because if Anupong does nothing he'll fail and if he takes action he'll be run out of the country. Abhisit inherited the mess of the divisions within the military, the fact of which which are not news, so Abhisit is going to let the military which hasn't been effective in supporting the government go up in flames.

I joked some time ago during previous discussion of Reds in the military that the army should help us out by identifying which commanders and which units are on which side by wearing either red or yellow armbands on their uniforms. At this point however I seriously make the suggestion.

The army had been a unified and all powerful arbitrating force in the past, but the Redshirt movement as created by Thaksin is a sociopolitical force led by cynics. The generals are as divided by their loyalties to two opposing centers of power and money as are the population and, for the first time, as noted in several analyses of the present and unprecedented Thai crucible, so are a number of the rank and file conscript troops who by the entrenched elitist structure and organization of the society necessarily come from the hills and the fields of toil, labor and planned exclusion.

The army, previously and always the final abrbiter, is presently too divided to do much other than to form a circular firing squad. Incipient civil war is what we have.

I don't agree with a lot of the above.

On a different point, perhaps it's true that Thailand (meaning the development of a much more balance and equilable civil society) has come to a turning point, and lot's of things (some of it not very nice) will be laid bare and will need to be worked through (probaly with some amount of pain) before Thailand can really move on.

[FreedomDude]

Agreed that Abhisit has handed this bag of shyt to Gen Anupong and that Anupong can only lose because if Anupong does nothing he'll fail and if he takes action he'll be run out of the country. Abhisit inherited the mess of the divisions within the military, the fact of which which are not news, so Abhisit is going to let the military which hasn't been effective in supporting the government go up in flames.

I joked some time ago during previous discussion of Reds in the military that the army should help us out by identifying which commanders and which units are on which side by wearing either red or yellow armbands on their uniforms. At this point however I seriously make the suggestion.

The army had been a unified and all powerful arbitrating force in the past, but the Redshirt movement as created by Thaksin is a sociopolitical force led by cynics. The generals are as divided by their loyalties to two opposing centers of power and money as are the population and, for the first time, as noted in several analyses of the present and unprecedented Thai crucible, so are a number of the rank and file conscript troops who by the entrenched elitist structure and organization of the society necessarily come from the hills and the fields of toil, labor and planned exclusion.

The army, previously and always the final abrbiter, is presently too divided to do much other than to form a circular firing squad. Incipient civil war is what we have.

I don't agree with a lot of the above.

On a different point, perhaps it's true that Thailand (meaning the development of a much more balance and equilable civil society) has come to a turning point, and lot's of things (some of it not very nice) will be laid bare and will need to be worked through (probaly with some amount of pain) before Thailand can really move on.

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

[scorecard]

Agreed that Abhisit has handed this bag of shyt to Gen Anupong and that Anupong can only lose because if Anupong does nothing he'll fail and if he takes action he'll be run out of the country. Abhisit inherited the mess of the divisions within the military, the fact of which which are not news, so Abhisit is going to let the military which hasn't been effective in supporting the government go up in flames.

I joked some time ago during previous discussion of Reds in the military that the army should help us out by identifying which commanders and which units are on which side by wearing either red or yellow armbands on their uniforms. At this point however I seriously make the suggestion.

The army had been a unified and all powerful arbitrating force in the past, but the Redshirt movement as created by Thaksin is a sociopolitical force led by cynics. The generals are as divided by their loyalties to two opposing centers of power and money as are the population and, for the first time, as noted in several analyses of the present and unprecedented Thai crucible, so are a number of the rank and file conscript troops who by the entrenched elitist structure and organization of the society necessarily come from the hills and the fields of toil, labor and planned exclusion.

The army, previously and always the final abrbiter, is presently too divided to do much other than to form a circular firing squad. Incipient civil war is what we have.

I don't agree with a lot of the above.

On a different point, perhaps it's true that Thailand (meaning the development of a much more balance and equilable civil society) has come to a turning point, and lot's of things (some of it not very nice) will be laid bare and will need to be worked through (probaly with some amount of pain) before Thailand can really move on.

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

So what don't you agree with, please be specific.

[Jerrytheyoung]

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

Excellent statement, I support you at 100%: this is freedom and democracy

[321niti123]

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

Excellent statement, I support you at 100%: this is freedom and democracy

Im backing you 100%

Just got back from china, great trip, the guide was great-spoke excellent thai(really quick in answering, shocked everyone that she was only here for 2 months her whole life)+good jokes. I wish im back in china with this incredible political turmoil + shocking heat (its still cool season in china 2-20 degs). Anyways, I'm kinda behind on news, can anyone bring me up to speed? I was away all last week, left when they started killing ppl.

[virtualtraveller]

This has all the ingredients of a civil war, but it does send a single to the top brass that another coup might not be as seamless as the previous one.

When your military is infiltrated and as disloyal among themselves as this, you realise how rotten to the core this country is, it's frightening. Thaksin has quietly and systematically been working away at the army from the inside, this guy will stop at nothing to get back in, and it looks like he's getting the better of the generals.

If the PT/Reds stand their ground now, refusing all dialogue towards some unity govt, the scales would have tipped in their favour, sooner or later Thaksin would be able to make a return, and when he does there's going to be mass retribution and perhaps more 'disgusted' protesters on the streets than he or the Reds ever imagined. And when it happens the reds are going to come out too and there's going to a massive street battle. Where will the army stand then?

[scorecard]

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

Excellent statement, I support you at 100%: this is freedom and democracy

"Lying should not be illegal". You support this staement?

In other words I can tell lies and untruths about you and you wouldn't want the potection of being able to sue for libel and to have me stopped from continuing to make the untruthful statements about you.

Please note: I'm not advocating that everybody should start sueing everybody!

[LuckyLew]

Go Grandpops.go....

Agree 100% and I cannot understand these right wing authoritarian types who fill these boards with their yellow lies based on Abhisit's propaganda...as they say, right wing nuts never let facts get in the way of an excuse of a massacre....

the usual red shirt moronic garbage

Nothing valid or useful to say ...

Were you sleeping on pavement while your

leaders stayed in sweet 5 star luxury?

[LuckyLew]

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

Excellent statement, I support you at 100%: this is freedom and democracy

"Lying should not be illegal". You support this staement?

In other words I can tell lies and untruths about you and you wouldn't want the potection of being able to sue for libel and to have me stopped from continuing to make the untruthful statements about you.

Please note: I'm not advocating that everybody should start sueing everybody!

If you are spewing hatred, uprising, lies and inciting violence, you need to be censored

[geriatrickid]

the usual red shirt moronic garbage

Nothing valid or useful to say ...

Were you sleeping on pavement while your

leaders stayed in sweet 5 star luxury?

Why did you post an inaccurate and misleading statement? The hotel was not 5*. It was a basic "tourist" hotel equivalent to 2*-3*. Rack rates are between 1500 and 2800 baht, which means that groups can probably get rooms starting as low as 1000 baht.

A 5* like the Hyatt goes from 5800 to 16,000 baht. Look at the rates before you post misleading statements.

The red officials used the hotel to shower, change clothes and to meet in a quiet location to discuss strategy. As has been stated previously, if someone has to be on stage for long periods of time, giving speeches and rallying the protestors, he/she has to have somewhere to go and rest and to meet with organizers. Claims of a luxurious lifestyle are intended to create the image of the leaders living an excessive lifesyle, when that is not the case. It is you that has nothing useful to add.

In respect to the original article, it is a statement of the obvious. The elite Bangkok units were deployed, not conscripts from the North. The government now realizes that it has inadequate numbers of "loyal" units available and is redeploying additional personnel from regiments that are neither seen as red leaning nor are staffed by conscripts. The junior officers and NCOs that believe their careers were stymied because they were not from the right units or regions are not helping the situation. This isn't just a political problem, but is a real human resources management crisis. It is the equivalent of a work to rule situation with some of the units.

Let's just stay within the proper context of the situation and stop with the invention of scenarios that are not valid or applicable. It may be hard for those that cannot understand what is happening, but at its core it is the equivalent of a labour conflict. Management was unprepared for the events.

[generalgrant]

Obviously there are more than 3000 Reds holding a 6 square mile area.

Repeating there are only 3000 is pathetic--but funny.

We can walk down the street and see the REDS have the road(Sukhumvit) completely under their control.

One lane of traffic with Red check points

Reds line the streets and the buildings and are in control of 6 closed up shopping mauls.

How many?

At least 1000,000 but likely many many more than that.

Their defense line is being dug in now.

Machine guns, hand-grenades, automatic military rifles and all with special force people dressed in black to scare the heck out of Thai military. They have anti tank weapons also.

No No NO

The Thai army will not come into Bangkok to rescue the regime this time.

My opinion.

Bangkok--if a fight breaks Out, will be Beirut.http://www.habeeb.com/lebanon.photos.18.beirut.war.destruction.html

I am short the Thai baht.

Thai baht to 60

[generalgrant]

Obviously there are more than 3000 Reds holding a 6 square mile area.

Repeating there are only 3000 is pathetic--but funny.

We can walk down the street and see the REDS have the road(Sukhumvit) completely under their control.

One lane of traffic with Red check points

Reds line the streets and the buildings and are in control of 6 closed up shopping mauls.

How many?

At least 100,000 but likely many many more than that.

Their defense line is being dug in now.

Machine guns, hand-grenades, automatic military rifles and all with special force people dressed in black to scare the heck out of Thai military. They have anti tank weapons also.

No No NO

The Thai army will not come into Bangkok to rescue the regime this time.

My opinion.

Bangkok--if a fight breaks Out, will be Beirut.http://www.habeeb.com/lebanon.photos.18.beirut.war.destruction.html

I am short the Thai baht.

Thai baht to 60

[OzMick]

the usual red shirt moronic garbage

Nothing valid or useful to say ...

Were you sleeping on pavement while your

leaders stayed in sweet 5 star luxury?

Why did you post an inaccurate and misleading statement? The hotel was not 5*. It was a basic "tourist" hotel equivalent to 2*-3*. Rack rates are between 1500 and 2800 baht, which means that groups can probably get rooms starting as low as 1000 baht.

A 5* like the Hyatt goes from 5800 to 16,000 baht. Look at the rates before you post misleading statements.

The red officials used the hotel to shower, change clothes and to meet in a quiet location to discuss strategy. As has been stated previously, if someone has to be on stage for long periods of time, giving speeches and rallying the protestors, he/she has to have somewhere to go and rest and to meet with organizers. Claims of a luxurious lifestyle are intended to create the image of the leaders living an excessive lifesyle, when that is not the case. It is you that has nothing useful to add.

In respect to the original article, it is a statement of the obvious. The elite Bangkok units were deployed, not conscripts from the North. The government now realizes that it has inadequate numbers of "loyal" units available and is redeploying additional personnel from regiments that are neither seen as red leaning nor are staffed by conscripts. The junior officers and NCOs that believe their careers were stymied because they were not from the right units or regions are not helping the situation. This isn't just a political problem, but is a real human resources management crisis. It is the equivalent of a work to rule situation with some of the units.

Let's just stay within the proper context of the situation and stop with the invention of scenarios that are not valid or applicable. It may be hard for those that cannot understand what is happening, but at its core it is the equivalent of a labour conflict. Management was unprepared for the events.

Got a picture of ANY leader sleeping on the ground? The room pictured was described as being that of a guard - I guess that they don't sleep rough either. And I would be hugely surprised if this cosy little group were paying any bills, room and board being supplied by their lord and master.

In respect of troop "disloyalty", do you have ANY proof or should it be prefaced IMO? I agree with only one of your statements, that management was unprepared. They swallowed the "peaceful protester" crap and walked into a well planned ambush complete with an assassination squad for the C.O. and foreign mercenaries.

We are talking about the Royal Thai Army, and there might be red radicals talking about big changes, but that doesn't sit at all well with the Isaan thais that I know. They have one allegiance, and the troops will be getting a dam_ned good reminder of where that lies.

Edited April 18, 2010 by OzMick

[jefro]

Obviously there are more than 3000 Reds holding a 6 square mile area.

Repeating there are only 3000 is pathetic--but funny.

We can walk down the street and see the REDS have the road(Sukhumvit) completely under their control.

One lane of traffic with Red check points

Reds line the streets and the buildings and are in control of 6 closed up shopping mauls.

How many?

At least 1000,000 but likely many many more than that.

Their defense line is being dug in now.

Machine guns, hand-grenades, automatic military rifles and all with special force people dressed in black to scare the heck out of Thai military. They have anti tank weapons also.

No No NO

The Thai army will not come into Bangkok to rescue the regime this time.

My opinion.

Bangkok--if a fight breaks Out, will be Beirut.http://www.habeeb.com/lebanon.photos.18.beirut.war.destruction.html

I am short the Thai baht.

Thai baht to 60

How do you short Thai Baht ? It is not on Forex.

[geriatrickid]

Got a picture of ANY leader sleeping on the ground? The room pictured was described as being that of a guard - I guess that they don't sleep rough either. And I would be hugely surprised if this cosy little group were paying any bills, room and board being supplied by their lord and master.

In respect of troop "disloyalty", do you have ANY proof or should it be prefaced IMO? I agree with only one of your statements, that management was unprepared. They swallowed the "peaceful protester" crap and walked into a well planned ambush complete with an assassination squad for the C.O. and foreign mercenaries.

We are talking about the Royal Thai Army, and there might be red radicals talking about big changes, but that doesn't sit at all well with the Isaan thais that I know. They have one allegiance, and the troops will be getting a dam_ned good reminder of where that lies.

You need to read up on the biographies of the implicated generals and understand the relationship between historical commands and classes. The loyalty is within the graduating class and to the commanding officers. This is a long established tradition in the Thai military.

The two army generals that led the coup in 2006 were Gen.Saprang Kallayamitr of the Third Army and Gen. Anupong Paochinda of First Army headquartered in Bangkok. You may not know it, but Anupong graduated with Thaksin from pre-cadet Class 10. However, he had come under the influence of General Prawit and indirectly General Prem, who offered him a career path in the Royal Queen’s Guard. The Queen's Guard was General Prem's. Gen. Anapong Paochinda is loyal to General Prem because that was his regiment. The man who boosted his career, Gen.Prawit Wongsawat is Minister of Defense. These are all former Queen’s Guard officers. Does the 21st Battalion of the Queens Guard mean anything to you? Can you understand now why General Prem is implicated in the events? The units sent to deal with the protestors were not conscripts, nor were they northerners. The units sent were drawn from Bangkok units and in particular the First Army and Queens Guards and other elements of teh Royal Guards.

If you were in a different regiment, would you be willing to risk what you had knowing that you did not have a chance at advancing? As long as the Royal Guard's "veterans" are around, only those associated with that group will advance to the senior positions. I believe the underlying sentiment is to let those that will benefit do the work. And no I am not writing this just because it is convenient. The same situation arose under Thaksin. Except Thaksin misjudged the loyalty of some commanders.

Thaksin was the man that put Gen. Somdhat Attanand in place as Supreme Commander and selected placed his relatives and pre-cadet school class 10 schoolmates into other senior positions. The mistake came when Thaksin appointed Gen.Prawit Wongsawan as Army Commander. Prawit while loyal to Thaksin was more loyal to the Royal Guards, which meant General Prem had a mjor influence despite having been pushed aside when Chavlit was initially appointed the defence minister.

Prawit appointed as his successor Gen.Sonthi Boonyaratklin who had come from the same class as Prawit, Pre-cadet Class 6 and Army Cadet School Class 17. Sonthi was a Prem loyalist. And this brings us back to the first line of my response, Generals Saprang and Anapong were his left and right arms in the command structure. General Anapong is only going to use those troops that he knows he can count on and that are commanded by officers that he knows and that are tied by virtue of having been classmates or Queens Guards veterans. This is how it works in the Thai military. It has always been this way.

Why should a leader sleep on the ground? We have been through this before, but when a general is in command of troops during a battle, where is that general? Where was Tommy Franks during the height of the Iraq war? Do you think Gen. McChrystal is sleeping on the ground in Afghanistan? He is in a secure building with running water, AC and good food, while the troops in the field are crapping in holes, being bitten by bugs and eating field rations. I'd like to see you give hour after hour of speeches day after day while sleeping on the street. If these leaders are expected to do what they are doing, they need to get some rest and to meet in a quiet place to strategize. There is nothing sinister or hypocritical in that. It is called planning.

[scorecard]

And it truly is a shame we can't discuss those things. We need to stop censorship on ALL sides: the govt censoring websites and tv stations, people like Thaksin suing everybody for libel. Lying should NOT be illegal! Let people judge for themselves what is true and untrue! Everybody needs to respect EVERYBODY"S right to free speech! I may not AGREE with you AT ALL, but I will defend your right to say it!

Excellent statement, I support you at 100%: this is freedom and democracy

"Lying should not be illegal". You support this staement?

In other words I can tell lies and untruths about you and you wouldn't want the potection of being able to sue for libel and to have me stopped from continuing to make the untruthful statements about you.

Please note: I'm not advocating that everybody should start sueing everybody!

If you are spewing hatred, uprising, lies and inciting violence, you need to be censored

Agree.

[generalgrant]

Obviously there are more than 3000 Reds holding a 6 square mile area.

Repeating there are only 3000 is pathetic--but funny.

We can walk down the street and see the REDS have the road(Sukhumvit) completely under their control.

One lane of traffic with Red check points

Reds line the streets and the buildings and are in control of 6 closed up shopping mauls.

How many?

At least 1000,000 but likely many many more than that.

Their defense line is being dug in now.

Machine guns, hand-grenades, automatic military rifles and all with special force people dressed in black to scare the heck out of Thai military. They have anti tank weapons also.

No No NO

The Thai army will not come into Bangkok to rescue the regime this time.

My opinion.

Bangkok--if a fight breaks Out, will be Beirut.http://www.habeeb.com/lebanon.photos.18.beirut.war.destruction.html

I am short the Thai baht.

Thai baht to 60

----------------How do you short Thai Baht ? It is not on Forex.

------------------------------------------------------------

<H1 class=page-title>Thai Baht Lower in Currency Trading</H1>Asian currencies in forex trading The Thai baht is moving lower in currency trading on the FX market today. Like many other Asian currencies in forex trading, the baht is heading lower thanks to worries over exports and drops in tourism.

In addition to concerns about exports and tourism, Thailand is also dealing with political unrest. While the political turmoil hasn't had a big impact on the Thai baht in currency trading, it certainly isn't helping anything.

Recently, the Thai central bank cut the interest rate in order to help stimulate the economy, and many companies still remain relatively strong. The baht is avoiding an all-out run on its currency, and that has been good for baht, considering, leading to a slower decline over an outright plummet.

[grandpops]

Go Grandpops.go....

Agree 100% and I cannot understand these right wing authoritarian types who fill these boards with their yellow lies based on Abhisit's propaganda...as they say, right wing nuts never let facts get in the way of an excuse of a massacre....

I agree. Could you go with him?

So all yellows are liars.

Well what's your comment on the deliberate open lies told to the reds many times by jatuporn and his clan?

In free speech, there is nothing wrong with lying.

As you rightly point out, all the yellows are liars. So what. Let them carry on with it because they are proved liars again and again and lose credibility.

So much credibility have they lost that they have to hide in an Army Camp. Remember other recent (elected) PMs being protected by the Army? Flown around by the Army?

They have also brought scathing scornful reports by all international media on themselves and back tracked on numerous occasions.

They have encouraged a mob to try and intimidate the Army into KILLING red protesters. With no policies or attepmpts to solve anything, the PAD is back to demonstrate just how unfairly Abhisit was put into power and how uneven handed is the definition of Mobster and terrorist.

This mob at the Army base brought the country to its knees and members of the Government were at the airport with them. Now, they have called them into protect them from the rest of the country.

Lie on I say. It's done them more harm than good.

[jefro]

Obviously there are more than 3000 Reds holding a 6 square mile area.

Repeating there are only 3000 is pathetic--but funny.

We can walk down the street and see the REDS have the road(Sukhumvit) completely under their control.

One lane of traffic with Red check points

Reds line the streets and the buildings and are in control of 6 closed up shopping mauls.

How many?

At least 1000,000 but likely many many more than that.

Their defense line is being dug in now.

Machine guns, hand-grenades, automatic military rifles and all with special force people dressed in black to scare the heck out of Thai military. They have anti tank weapons also.

No No NO

The Thai army will not come into Bangkok to rescue the regime this time.

My opinion.

Bangkok--if a fight breaks Out, will be Beirut.http://www.habeeb.com/lebanon.photos.18.beirut.war.destruction.html

I am short the Thai baht.

Thai baht to 60

----------------How do you short Thai Baht ? It is not on Forex.

------------------------------------------------------------

<H1 class=page-title>Thai Baht Lower in Currency Trading</H1>Asian currencies in forex trading The Thai baht is moving lower in currency trading on the FX market today. Like many other Asian currencies in forex trading, the baht is heading lower thanks to worries over exports and drops in tourism.

In addition to concerns about exports and tourism, Thailand is also dealing with political unrest. While the political turmoil hasn't had a big impact on the Thai baht in currency trading, it certainly isn't helping anything.

Recently, the Thai central bank cut the interest rate in order to help stimulate the economy, and many companies still remain relatively strong. The baht is avoiding an all-out run on its currency, and that has been good for baht, considering, leading to a slower decline over an outright plummet.

My broker does not offer THB pairs. I just opened a GFTforex account with PP.

[Publicus]

<<snip>>

In respect to the original article, it is a statement of the obvious. The elite Bangkok units were deployed, not conscripts from the North. The government now realizes that it has inadequate numbers of "loyal" units available and is redeploying additional personnel from regiments that are neither seen as red leaning nor are staffed by conscripts.

<<snip>>

I've alread posted, and a BBC report posted to another thread made some passing reference to the matter, that the army as a whole never participates in coups or in surpressing domestic disorder and/or violence such as the Redshirt Songkran of a year ago; that rather, elite specially screened and trained units execute these orders and actions.

The army as a whole have been bystanders to coups and other terrible military actions against civilians in the streets such as the shootings of democracy activists in the streets who were against the 1991 military government - also army elite troops in black disguise acted ruthlessly in 1973 and again in 1976. The BBC report identified such special loyalist units as the 2nd Infantry and two other Infantry units, the 12th and the 21st. Additionally, as I previously pointed out, the government currently is under the protection of the supremely loyalist 11th Infantry at its facility on the outskirts of Bangkok.

The always fiercely loyalist Khorat garrison came to the rescue against the April 1st (April Fool's) coup of 1981 which had caused the government of General Prime Minister Prem and the Royal Family to vacate Bangkok to Nakorn Rachasima, from where Gen PM Prem led a column of the fiercely loyalist garrison to retake Bangkok from Bangkok based troops and their commanders with only two injuries in all, much to the cheers of Thais throughout the country.

The current issue I've raised recently, and as subsequently noted by the BBC report, is the presently unprecedented situation in which the onlooker conscript on-the-outside army comprised of ordinary soldiers drawn primarily from the lowest socioeconomic groupings of the society and whose parents, relatives, village neighbors and Grade 1-6 schoolmates are now Redshirts, whether presently in Bangkok or still back home supporting the Redshirts in Bangkok, will continue to stand idle while the specially selected and elite units move against the Redshirts.

Over the decades it's always been the same elite units by number/name (BBC report), led by a generational succession of the incestously chosen leaders, commanders and troops who have executed the coups and have supresses dissent and/or disorder. If the army openly divides, it wouldn't necessarily be a civil war between the generals and the colonels vs the rank and file troops - it instead surely would be an open conflict between the loyalist units of specially screened and trained soldiers and their annointed from on high commanders vs the outsider Red commanders and the ragtag conscript troops from the North and Northeast who, as with their families, neighbors and villagers are also Red.

It would be the annointed units commanders and their troops vs the marginalized commanders and their conscript pesant-soldiers. There already have been reports that some soldiers have surrendered their weapons to Reds during confrontations. DK you and others know as well as I that a soldier never on his life surrenders his weapon (unless ordered to by superior commanders in a general surrender, as by either side in WW2).

Edited April 18, 2010 by Publicus