Abhisit - A Prime Minister Tried By War

[mausplan]

Fast facts about Thaksin the most popular.

Quote :Takkie most popular. Not true- He was evicted from his favourite noodle shop in Silom Soi 7 by the cooks angered by his tax cheating. The cry "Thaksin get out" echoed everywhere, don't you remember this !!!

Fact : The coup that toppled him was greeted with flowers and cheering. ( not a fact but remember the 76 LV suitcases he took with him)

Fact : Thaksin called a snap election,gave 30 days notice ( broke the rules ) bribed people to field candidates to take votes away ( remember , he was caught.

Fact : Drug war, 2500 dead admitted by BIB ( gossip has it this was for a personal reason)

Fact : Tak Bai -85 young men suffocated in the back of open trucks ( nothing done)

Fact : The land of the 500 ml lawsuit, press censorship , the take over of media companies

Fact : The 2.0ml Baht cake

Fact : Ample Rich and Win Mark ( Mark) -who would be cheeky enough to name BVI companies these "up yours " names

Have you even looked at his PHD thesis, he argues that it is okay to break rules to achieve political goal.

Fact : The majority of Thais support AV

[tommyuk]

Abhisit

I personally think this Thai Prime Minister has went out his depth and should have stepped down save all this bloodshed. One can say he was enforcing stability although it seems it's just created instability antagonising the red-shirts even more. Brings back the old adage - a lunatic is running the asylum and serves the general public with even more despair.

If this carnage continues - where will it all end ?

Edited May 20, 2010 by tommyuk

[Dudley23]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

[mausplan]

I agree 100% with Dudley23 about Dems or current coalition . The only caveat about Dems or coalition winning is to make sure voters are energised to turnout in enough numbers to counter the "gerrymander" with the up country electorates.

It is hard to see how the next election can be fair as no Dem would be brave enough to go to many Isan areas. That is a tough problem to overcome.

My two cents worth. I think most Thai's are conservative, personally hate corruption, want a stable environment, are proud of their country and its heritage and don't want it remade into the new North Korea.

[dmsnsa]

I think comparing Abhisit to Lincoln is a bit of a stretch.

The article is classic Pravda propaganda, prepared by the party faithful. ... Elections are pointless until the army and judiciary stop meddling with the result.

Let talk about this, really the meddling started because someone had his pocket money confiscated. He pooled his pennies and used the fulcrum of the 'class struggle' to further his own ends. Now I'm not saying there isn't a glaring difference on how different sets of Thais live. But, this man harnessed the popular tune to his own advantage, complete insincerity spouts from his mouth, and mouth-pieces. My family went in one generation of abject poverty to having 3 university graduates, 263kms North, North-East of Bangkok. Yes the Nation has many issues plaguing it, but being the dog that protects fish bones won't solve anything. I think we could use 100, or tens of thousands of Abhisit's in government service. The biggest question how will Thai enact laws to limit corruption, monitor implementation of those laws, and audit the usefulness of public funds towards social programs. One thing is clear nothing will ever be accomplished by those through gas bombs at the assets of our Nation. That isn't protest, it's just criminal acts that need to be justly prosecuted.

[deepskyfreak]

Abhist was presented with a political problem.Once he sent in the Army on April 10th with live ammo, it turned into a violent struggle. He should have used water cannon and offered a political compromise. It's going to be a long time before we get back to the Land of Smiles.He should resign.

Revisionist history at its finest. Lets look at reality.

I my opinion, Abhisit was simply not able to move in police water tankers to disperse the mad crowd and their hatred-spreading leaders. Police forces basically reneged against their own duty to bring back a peaceful situation. Almost every single action of the police was done either half-hearted or by looking away. Thaksin is a police colonel, don't forget that (even though he just received the rank as a present when he became prime minister, prior to that he was a police captain).

Remember the botched attempt to arrest red shirt leaders at the hotel where they savely abseiled under the eyes of press and police. The police staged a little bit of action without hurting anyone and the culprits escaped. The whole world laughed.

Think of being a prime minister and trying to control an ever increasingly violent movement getting armed (not slingshots but Kattiya's gunmen) and you don't have the police fully on your side.

When Abhisit became prime minister, he tried right from the beginning to be a prime minister for all of Thailand. But the history of his party's way up to lead the country was a history of confusion and irregularities. He did the best job possible. Nobody could have done better with that uphill battle against corruption and a revenge-seeking billionaire paying farmers and militants to stir up trouble to bring about a collapse of Thailand.

Just wait and see. I can promise you (bangkokjohn), if Thaksin or just his supporters and friends come back into power (that is certain), you will not be happy with their governance for a very long time. Just remember the years of Thaksin's, Chavalit's, Somchai's, Samak's rule.

Many members of my family (mostly provincial well-educated middle-class Thais) supported Thaksin in the early days of his rule. It did not take them long to realize the true intend of his dictate - get richer and rule the nation for 30 years. Their decision to dump him as their favorite was not based on money or tax-burden. They saw their freedom of speech and opinion being hijacked to the point where they had to be careful in their jobs as teachers, government officials or else, what they said and to whom.

Edited May 20, 2010 by deepskyfreak

[deepskyfreak]

Abhist was presented with a political problem.Once he sent in the Army on April 10th with live ammo, it turned into a violent struggle. He should have used water cannon and offered a political compromise. It's going to be a long time before we get back to the Land of Smiles.He should resign.

Revisionist history at its finest. Lets look at reality.

sorry, double entry...

Edited May 20, 2010 by deepskyfreak

[jdinasia]

Cry about the current government all you want but they came about their place leading the country in a completely democratic way in Thailand.

Yeah, helped by some nifty new rules sneaked in by some blokes in green hats riding tanks... About time they did the same to the Dems... dissolve the whole sheebang. The whole world knows this place is run by guys with guns. Trouble is, they are letting it continue.

Maybe a buffer region against them pesky commies up north, east, and of course the muslim bogeymen to the south. Dont forget the PLA are to eclipse the US army influence here over the coming years.

The transition is on. This is now Chinese turf.

Ergo, the smaller the influence of the armed forces on politics the better, ivory tower politics vs grassroots.

In my opinion.

At the end of the day, just have a tossing election sooner rather than later! Then all this crap can stop! if the reds lose.. whoopie, if the yellows win, whoopie. At least we know who are the usurpers of power.

LOL ---- OK besides quoting inaccurate Red propoganda ----

Exactly WHAT rules were changed ("sneaked in") ?

TRT was slated to be dissolved before this mess started (one of the two reasons for Thaksin to dissolve parliament and call the snap-elections!)?

Chinese turf? Is that a reference to Thaksin?

In 2006 the Military removed an extra-constitutional caretaker government --- yeppers they violated the rules! The government of the time was in violation of the rules too!

What YOU claim the "whole world knows" simply isn't true ... 99% of the world couldn't find Thailand on the map! Most of the rest would look at the events over the last 2 years and think that the military may be FINALLY answering to the civilian government! Albeit slowly and reluctantly!

[whybother]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

The red party will win in a lot of the N/NE provinces, but that area is a minority of the whole of Thailand. I don't believe the red party will win in electorates outside of those provinces.

[deepskyfreak]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

The red party will win in a lot of the N/NE provinces, but that area is a minority of the whole of Thailand. I don't believe the red party will win in electorates outside of those provinces.

You better check population numbers, my friend, the N/NE represents far over 50% of Thailand's total population... With a few additional vote in the center, the will (unfortunately) win it...

[nickupton]

Thanks for the wikipedia reference which includes the following statement: "Abhisit voiced displeasure at the 2006 coup that overthrew Thaksin, but otherwise did not protest it or the military junta that ruled Thailand for over a year". Perhaps that pretty much sums up the depth of his principles on this matter.

Does it mention that the military overthrew Thaksin after he had decided to extend his tenure as Prime Minister without having to bother about the election?

[EarthAlien]

Abhisit stick to your guns, show compassion to those who fought against the soldiers on the street, extend the olive branch. Continue to improve the lives of the poor and hunt down the bastards who looted and burnt the city of angels.

Seconded,.. well thought out and expressed Jon, Kudos!

[kristophon]

and a rather handsome young boy he is too

[SomTumTiger]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

The red party will win in a lot of the N/NE provinces, but that area is a minority of the whole of Thailand. I don't believe the red party will win in electorates outside of those provinces.

You better check population numbers, my friend, the N/NE represents far over 50% of Thailand's total population... With a few additional vote in the center, the will (unfortunately) win it...

They didn't take a majority last election - only 36 percent. Next time the numbers will be lower, and Newin's party will take a greater percentage. Your prediction will (fortunately) not come to pass. Puea Thai Party's days of influence are well behind them.

[whybother]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

The red party will win in a lot of the N/NE provinces, but that area is a minority of the whole of Thailand. I don't believe the red party will win in electorates outside of those provinces.

You better check population numbers, my friend, the N/NE represents far over 50% of Thailand's total population... With a few additional vote in the center, the will (unfortunately) win it...

If you look at the election results in the post from 'otherstuff', and the map showing the electoral areas (each area is about 8 mil people), you will see that the red dominated areas (1, 3, 4) would cover only 24 million people. The lighter red areas are were the red party got less than 50% of the vote in that area, and IMO, are areas where they will lose support because of these protests.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Thailand

I've posted this map before, but some people are more interested in expressing their wishful thinking than in facts. Here are the results of the most recent elections by province:

and here are the numbers:

Party Constituency Proportional TOTAL Seats

People's Power Party 34 233

Democrat Party 165

Thai Nation Party 37

For the Motherland 24

Thais United National Development Party 9

Neutral Democratic Party 7

Royalist People's Party 5

Valid votes 71,772,667* 100 400 35,535,767 100 80 480 No Votes 906,216 2.32

Invalid Votes 2,539,429 6.51

Total Turnout 38,981,412 85.38

After the by-elections to replace disqualified Party List candidates, the PPP's replacement party (PT) had fewer than 200 seats. I might also point out that NONE of the PT MP's were elected as members of that party!

[Motoon]

No matter how you put it, K. Abhisit has shown integrity and honesty - something the red leaders, the PT party and many posters here obviously only know from hearsay. He might have made mistakes along the way, finally he is still learning, but he has given hope to many, that this country in the end might produce a new class of leaders. And given the odds he has done a good job.

[siambeachboy]

I think comparing Abhisit to Lincoln is a bit of a stretch.

The article is classic Pravda propaganda, prepared by the party faithful.

What it doesn't mention is Thailand's fatal flaw - mob rule has replaced the electoral process, which people have completely lost faith in. Neither does the Pravda article mention that Abhisit's lot used this very same method of mob rule to pave the way for the parliamentary deal that got him into power in the first place. Thais support fair play, and while such a system of injustice and hypocrisy prevails there will never be peace. We might also bear in mind that Abhisit's pretext for snatching power was reconciliation, but all we have seen is more chaos. Far from being celebrated as the next Abe Lincoln, Abhisit is just as much focus of hatred as Thaksin is - both of them should withdraw from public life and give the country a chance to repair its broken democracy.

Restoring the public confidence in their right to elect their leaders is really what the Thai authorities should be concentrating on right now. Elections are seen as pointless until the army and judiciary stop interfering with the result.

not to forget the vote buying and fraud in your list I suggest

Your heros burned down the city yesterday - You must be so proud!

Rather than taking sides, which isn't working and has not so far brought any peace, we should look at the situation objectively.

People have no faith in the electoral process anymore. There will be no peace until the root causes of the problem have been addressed - political opinions need to be expressed at the ballot box rather than on the street, and until the military and judiciary stop meddling this vicious cycle will likely continue.

It's all very well for you to hate one or the other side, but it won't solve the problem.

[siambeachboy]

No matter how you put it, K. Abhisit has shown integrity and honesty - something the red leaders, the PT party and many posters here obviously only know from hearsay. He might have made mistakes along the way, finally he is still learning, but he has given hope to many, that this country in the end might produce a new class of leaders. And given the odds he has done a good job.

hear - hear - hopefully Khun Apirak may be able to soon join him in the government heirachy

[RKASA]

I think comparing Abhisit to Lincoln is a bit of a stretch.

And yours is a complete understatement if there ever was one. Even the details of the US war, well not completely wrong are missing the main player. Grant sat in front of Petersburg while Sherman march to the sea. Early in the war Sherman was near committed to an institution for telling them the war would not be easy. Please, commit me now then.

Grant stood by me when I was crazy, and I stood by him when he was drunk, and now we stand by each other.

William Tecumseh Sherman

[tonywebster]

Abhisit has defied the pundits many times now. They say he is finished, yet he comes through. So he has become a war Prime Minister and he won't be forgotten, whatever happens next.

A war prime minister

he had to deal with a bit of civil disobedience, which he made a pigs ear of by the way and was only saved by the slaughter of many unarmed people and a few armed people.

I wonder how he would cope if he did have to become a war prime minister, against another army that have the same as as his own. Judging his performance on this one I know he would not be remembered for good things, rather as the man that oversaw the invasion of his own country while he tried to deflect the blame everywhere rather than where it actually lays.

Ah well at least you made me laugh.

[Oberkommando]

Don't you have to win a general election to be considered a successful politician?

[whybother]

Don't you have to win a general election to be considered a successful politician?

How do YOU define winning an election?

I thought becoming an MP as the leader of a party, and then getting the support of a majority of MPs would be enough.

Edited May 20, 2010 by whybother

[Motoon]

Abhisit has defied the pundits many times now. They say he is finished, yet he comes through. So he has become a war Prime Minister and he won't be forgotten, whatever happens next.

A war prime minister

he had to deal with a bit of civil disobedience, which he made a pigs ear of by the way and was only saved by the slaughter of many unarmed people and a few armed people.

I wonder how he would cope if he did have to become a war prime minister, against another army that have the same as as his own. Judging his performance on this one I know he would not be remembered for good things, rather as the man that oversaw the invasion of his own country while he tried to deflect the blame everywhere rather than where it actually lays.

Ah well at least you made me laugh.

You make me laugh right now...

[jdinasia]

There is always going to be different views in Society and the conflicting argument here seems to be who has the majority.

People act in certain ways and after the reds protest and the way it was conducted (we cannot change what has happened) who would win.

There is over 100,000 members on this site from varying backgrounds and varying cultures, however if we were to Vote with the current 100,000 members on who should be in power. We are here because the majority either live, work, visit the great country called Thailand.

Reading all the views and notes on the site my bet would either be the democrats or the current government power in a landslide.

Anyone willing to take it up???

The red party will win in a lot of the N/NE provinces, but that area is a minority of the whole of Thailand. I don't believe the red party will win in electorates outside of those provinces.

You better check population numbers, my friend, the N/NE represents far over 50% of Thailand's total population... With a few additional vote in the center, the will (unfortunately) win it...

Ummmm let's see where to start ......

Your erroneous conclusing that all of Isaan and all of the North will vote for a Pro-Thaksin party? The fact that the Reds didn't get 50% last time? The fact that Newin's area will go with Newin and the same for other areas controlled by their own political machines? The fact that the South and Central Thailand will likely vote the way they have historically and that without Newin and the otheres that Isaan and the North likely will too?

We will see a coalition government after the next elections and it is HIGHLY unlikely that it will be led by PTP or whatever Thaksin proxy party is around at the time.

We can reasonably safely assume that the government will make some SPLASHY headlines with charges that include evidence that will further swing people away from the reds. Nobody will want to be associated too closely with them!

Then all it takes is for Abhisit to fall on his sword and resign as head of the Dems for a few years leaving Korn in his place and .......

Imagine the speech, carried on all the channels.

(---NOTE----- The following is an example of a way forward that MIGHT even deliver the dems 50% of Parliament!)

"Thailand started on a difficult road of improving our democracy starting in 2006. We, as Thais, have rejected vote-buying, corruption, and graft. That rejection of the old way of doing things in Thailand has been painful. Starting with the coup in 2006 it caused pain to people that had not been shown the corruption of the government that was ousted. After a year, the military retrurned the government to the people's hands where it belonged. Even then, we as a people had nut fully rejected vote-buying and graft and that led to even more problems! Then came the disbanding of PPP by the courts after they were proven to have broken electoral law. My government came into place when PTP could not gain the support of 50% of Parliament. That caused more ill-will even though what happened was within the laws of Thailand and in the tradition of parliamentary democracies. The violence of 2009 and 2010, when a people's movement that has REAL and Legitimate issues; wast taken over by a violent and dangerous group of men who were not interested in Democracy. Men who were not interested in the Kingdom and it's health. Men who were not interested in the lives of their fellow Thais whether those Thais wore the same color shirt as them or not! I tell you today that those days are OVER! they MUST nnot return! We are all Thais together! We all love ______. We all want the best for the Kingdom! The time for corruption is over! We have worked together for _____ months to correct the failures of the connstitution! We have worked together to improve the lives of all people in rural Thailand. Those that committed the violence have been caught or driven out of the kingdom. Now is the time to move forward because forst and foremost we are all Thai people together!

Today, I Abhisit V. am dissolving parliament and calling for new elections on _______. I am also resigning as leader of the Dem party. Today I am calling for ALL of us to work together to helping ALL Thai people! Today I am calling for elections where we as voters reject vote-buying! Where we as voters think not only of ourselves but of ALL Thai people. Today I am calling for a Thailand where "No Corruption = No Poverty!" I want the people of Thailand to know that the years I have been PM have been some of the hardest years in recent Thai history, but we have learned from this pain and we know that ALL Thai people must be considered in all that we do!

Thank you Thailand for the opportunity to serve you and I hope that I am remembered as a person that tried to heal Thailand. I Love Thailand and I Love ______."

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Obviously I wrote that on the fly ---- but if done right and followed through with a strong campaign by Korn ... (and assuming that the constitution has been dealt with and finding ALL those that tried to tear Thailand down recently has happened ...)

[SomTumTiger]

Poll in the General Topics section, about the performance of the PM in the recent crisis. Please leave the political comments in this forum.

[Lancelot]

Interesting article and its good to remember that now Lincoln is revered, he was at times, deeply unpopular in the North and despised by the South.

Also remember that the US Civil War was America's most bloody conflict and continued until the South (Rebels) were totaly defeated and unwilling to continue.

No one knows how this will play out but I fear that we have reached the Tipping Point and this conflict will become increasingly vicious and bloody. Thai politics are winner take all. The Thais have many admirable attributes but compromise is not among them.

Despite the horrendous loss of life and property, the American Civil War gave birth to a modern USA. How will the current conflict mold Thailand?

[snakehips]

There's not many men in this world who I have the up most respect for or would feel humbled in their presence, Abhisit is most definitely a man who I truly respect.

He has proven without reasonable doubt he is what this country needs, maybe not in the eyes of some folk but for the country as a whole Thailand needs Abhisit.

I bow before your sir, how you have handled the situation over the past few weeks is truly remarkable and commendable given the circumstances.

I could not agree more. Well said!!..would you rather have this Honest,educated politcian leading you into a bright future or would you rather have the corrupt old school back in stealing the countries money..?...

[yoshiwara]

Don't you have to win a general election to be considered a successful politician?

No.

Churchill.

[Robby nz]

In referance to the maps of the 2007 election results:

If you look at the percentages rather than the pretty colours ( these will be percentages of votes cast not of the total voters in the electorate) and you will see the Dems percentages are above the PTP and in several electorates it will take only a small swing away from PTP (or the reds) to change the result.

You must also consider that many of these results were obtained with bribery and--or intimidation, eliminate or even minimise that and the result is very likely to be different.

When the protestors get back home they will get a different story from their families to that which they have heard in front of the red stage, the families will have the benefit of a more ballanced view a lot closer to the truth.

The results of the next election? we wait to see but looks very like the reds have done their lolly.

[jucel]

something to think about

Suthikiart Jirathiwat and Pracha Maleenont are quite close to Thaksin Shinawatra. They are still on good terms. If the reds set the blaze it would not make sense at all.

Places burnt down are symbolic of regime/system and representation of success. However the perpetrators are sparing many business locations

Dusit, MBK, ASTV, Nation, SisaoTewes, Pullman Kingpower, all left untouched.

Those would've been the reds' targets. Remember who was feuding with Central and BEC before all of this? Who was the biggest enemy of the Central Group and Ch. 3 in the past 3 years? The direct beneficiary of the fire is not reds or Thaksin...it's the man who feuded.

The fire kills 5 birds in one-stone: Channel 3, Central, Thaksin, Reds, Anti-Monarchists. Pongpat was used. Game over for Thaksin as he and reds are delegitimized, while opponents of Central/Bangkok Bank/BEC benefit. Think about this for a minute and you'll realise the missing jigsaw of this puzzle.

The men behind the blaze are the men who wanted to drive BEC/Central/BBL out of business and blame it on protestors. The fires irrevocably end the reds shirts movement for now, while Thaksin cannot conceivably ever return to politics or even to Thai soil.

The victims of the fire are not Thaksin/Reds's enemies. They are the enemies of Thaksin's enemies. Ultra-hardcore-right-winged conservative types stand to benefit from this chaos.Watch the aftermath closely and you'll see. Those who are desperate about clinging on to power are required to create an element of fear in the heart of its population. The incentive is greater than those who are aspiring to attain power.

People will go to great lengths to protect remaining interests while the threat is eliminated to foster a rally-round-the-regime type of feeling.

The goal of the movement to eliminate Thaksin forever from the system was not accomplished until today. It is end-game for him. We lose. Regime wins. May I stress not coincidence ASTV, Nation, PullmanKingPower, Dusit remain untouched. This battle is deeper than what meets the eyes. And SiSao is untouched.