Prayuth In Line To Be Next Thai Army Chief

[webfact]

ANALYSIS

Prayuth in line to be next Army chief

By Avudh Panananda

The Nation

Prayuth

BANGKOK: -- Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva confirmed yesterday that he had submitted this year's military reshuffle for royal approval - foiling any attempts to politicise the issue, although the swiftness of the annual promotions suggests all is not well among the top brass.

Pending the royal command on military appointments, General Prayuth Chan-ocha is poised to become the new Army commander-in-chief, succeeding General Anupong Paochinda, who will retire on September 30. Prayuth is likely to have the top post for four years.

The promotions appear to be in line with proper criteria like seniority, chain of command and job qualifications. Officers slated for higher jobs have done well in their military service, hence deserving just rewards.

But the plum positions look to have gone to those in charge of quelling red-shirt protests and those linked to the alleged Anupong-Prayuth clique, known as the "Eastern Tigers".

Although the military line-up indicates consolidation, continuity, stability and unity in the armed forces, the "Eastern Tigers" domination has left a large number of capable officers on the sidelines, not to mention the political impact of a strong, dominant Army against a backdrop of high uncertainties in parliamentary politics.

Outgoing Army chief Anupong rigorously dismissed claims that an "Eastern Tigers" group even exists, saying it was a figment of imagination fanned by media professionals.

Anupong said he did not condone any military clique to dominate the Army.

"In three years at my job, I did not build up a clique and stories related to the so-called Eastern Tigers have been written up in the press but there is no such group in existence," he said.

Based on the current line of military succession, Prayuth would be likely to hand the Army torch - in 2014 - to Lt Gen Kanit Sapitak, who is currently commander of the First Army Region and slated for elevation to the rank of five-star general in the role of assistant Army chief.

Lt Gen Daopong Rattanasuwan is slated for promotion to the position of Army chief of staff. He is reportedly being groomed for the position of Supreme Commander in the next few years.

Given that military succession appears to be fixed for the next four to eight years, this raises questions about the chance for career growth for officers not seen as favourites by their commanders.

The Army is well consolidated, but its chain of command is in the hands of those elevated by for their record in cracking down on the red shirts. A shift in the political wind could bring about tension between pro-red leaders and the military top brass.

Even under the existing power structure, the opposition is likely to try to gain political mileage by questioning Prayuth's leadership over his involvement in the April 10 clashes near Rajdamnoen Avenue.

Prayuth was the commander in charge of security forces trying to rein in the reds in an operation the opposition said was brutal and excessive. Some 25 people were killed - both troops and protesters, plus about 860 injured.

If Pheu Thai Party manages to grab power, Prayuth may find himself in the hot seat. Whether or not Daopong, seen by some as a possIble patch-up to reconcIle the Army and the red shIrts, can keep such tensIon from boIlIng over remaIns to be seen.

In the Defence Ministry, General Kittipong Ketkowit is slated to move from deputy supreme commander to Defence permanent secretary. He will succeed General Apichart Penkitti, who is due for mandatory retirement in September.

Apichart's deputies have been bypassed for promotion because Kittipong is expected to work in the same team as Supreme Commander General Songkitti Chakkabatr and incoming Army chief Prayuth.

General Pirun Paewpholsong is due to succeed Kittipong at the Supreme Command. Pirun will vacate his position as Army chief-of-staff for one of his deputies, Lt General Daopong, who is seen as one of the Army's rising stars.

In the Army, Prayuth will have General Theerawat Boonyapradab as his deputy and General Wich Thephasdin na Ayutthaya as chief adviser.

Three commanders from three Army Regions are up for promotion. Kanit, of the First Army, and Lt General Pichet Wisaijorn, of the Second Army, will become Prayuth's assistants. And Lt General Thanongsak Apirakyothin of the Third Army is slated to be a special adviser to Prayuth.

Major General Udomdet Sitabutr is tipped for elevation to the rank of Lt General and succeed Kanit at the First Army, while Major General Varit Rojanapakdi, who sustained knee injuries from an M-79 attack in the April 10 anti-riot operation, will be promoted from Second Infantry Division commander to become deputy commander of the First Army.

Lt General Thawatchai Samutsakhon, Lt General Wannawit Wongwait and Maj General Akanit Muensawat are poised to be commanders of the Second, Third, and Fourth Army Regions respectively.

Army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd is not up for promotion this time round, despite the popularity of his daily announcements to counter the red-shirt rally.

Both Navy chief Admiral Kamthorn Phumhiran and Air Force head Air Chief Marshal Itthiporn Suphawong will carry in their posts, which means promotions in these corps are relatively low-key.

Vice Admiral Yuthana Fakpholngarm and Vice Admiral Damrongsak Haocharoen are slated for elevation to the rank of admiral, to become the deputy Navy chief and Navy chief-of-staff respectively.

Air Chief Marshal Dilok Songkalayanamitr is poised to become deputy chief of the Air Force, while Air Chief Marshal Boonyarit Kerdsuk and Air Chief Marshal Srichao Chanruang will both become assistant heads of the Air Force.

-- The Nation 2010-08-04

[SomTumTiger]

The great equalizer against Thaksin's dictatorial dreams.

Edited August 4, 2010 by SomTumTiger

[dom samui]

yes,Anupong said he did not condone any military clique to dominate the Army.

[scorecard]

Quote from report: ".....Given that military succession appears to be fixed for the next four to eight years, this raises questions about the chance for career growth for officers not seen as favourites by their commanders.

...."

So what? No organization can provide a career path let alone a perfect career path for all employees, and the same comment applies to the Thai army. Additioanally there are 3 to 4 times the number of generals actually needed to run the Thai army efficiently, another reason why a perfect career path for all officers is simply not possible.

"....not favourites....". The military (over many decades) has built the current culture so they now need to either live with their own baby, or set out to change the baby's behaviors and morals.

But of course there will be military folks who will inist that all officers are entitled to have their turn sit in the top seat. This appraoch of course ignores capability.

My hope is that in time PM Abhisit will demand changes in this area, for all public servants (military, ministries, state enterprises, etc), and install policies which demand that proven capability and performance are the criteria for promotion (career path).

Edited August 4, 2010 by scorecard

[march]

The promotions appear to be in line with proper criteria like seniority, chain of command and job qualifications.

That's a refreshing change from when Thaksin Shinawatra appointed his own cousin, Chaisit Shinawatra, to be Army Chief, despite dozens of others being more senior and more qualified.

[TheBarbarian]

HUman rights abuser Praytuth was always in line to succeed the corrupted Anupong. Let's see he will say just like he predecessors that he stays out of politics. Until of course the elite will get under in another election than he will pump up the numbers of coups. He will probably caught with his hands in the cooky jar soon, just as Sondhi with his outrageous aircraft carrier without airplanes (at least he can live off the kickbacks) or the balloon of Anupong. (I think that as soon as Anupong is gone his nickname will be "the balloon", or the "The bomb scanner". The seller of the balloon (Zeppelin) must be still laughing about so much stupidity. The terrorists in the south see the balloon coming from 20 kilometer. Anupon neer hear of a drone. Just like Prayuth never heard of the international court of justice in which he will eventually end up, just as Sondhi for the mosque murders.

The fact that there is even a front page article in the newspapers about the fact that this person becomes the new chief (The Democrat party needed to act swift before they get disbanded) shows that thailand is in deep trouble. The appointment of an army general in a democratic country should not be bigger news as the opening of a new supermarket.

[Asa]

HUman rights abuser Praytuth was always in line to succeed the corrupted Anupong. Let's see he will say just like he predecessors that he stays out of politics. Until of course the elite will get under in another election than he will pump up the numbers of coups. He will probably caught with his hands in the cooky jar soon, just as Sondhi with his outrageous aircraft carrier without airplanes (at least he can live off the kickbacks) or the balloon of Anupong. (I think that as soon as Anupong is gone his nickname will be "the balloon", or the "The bomb scanner". The seller of the balloon (Zeppelin) must be still laughing about so much stupidity. The terrorists in the south see the balloon coming from 20 kilometer. Anupon neer hear of a drone. Just like Prayuth never heard of the international court of justice in which he will eventually end up, just as Sondhi for the mosque murders.

The fact that there is even a front page article in the newspapers about the fact that this person becomes the new chief (The Democrat party needed to act swift before they get disbanded) shows that thailand is in deep trouble. The appointment of an army general in a democratic country should not be bigger news as the opening of a new supermarket.

Prayuth said "I will TRY not to get involve in politics"

[indyuk]

The great equalizer against Thaksin's dictatorial dreams.

I've no strong feeling about Thaksin or any other Thai politician. Their is a sameness in all of their policies together with their Governance through inappropriate suppression of political movements that don't sing their song. Why you have developed such an alien attitude to just one premier and one governance that is strikingly similar to the one we have now is beyond the understanding of ordinary men. Thailand's governance would be more calm and ordered if the insiders could tamed or appeased..

.

[Insight]

HUman rights abuser Praytuth was always in line to succeed the corrupted Anupong. Let's see he will say just like he predecessors that he stays out of politics. Until of course the elite will get under in another election than he will pump up the numbers of coups. He will probably caught with his hands in the cooky jar soon, just as Sondhi with his outrageous aircraft carrier without airplanes (at least he can live off the kickbacks) or the balloon of Anupong. (I think that as soon as Anupong is gone his nickname will be "the balloon", or the "The bomb scanner". The seller of the balloon (Zeppelin) must be still laughing about so much stupidity. The terrorists in the south see the balloon coming from 20 kilometer. Anupon neer hear of a drone. Just like Prayuth never heard of the international court of justice in which he will eventually end up, just as Sondhi for the mosque murders.

The fact that there is even a front page article in the newspapers about the fact that this person becomes the new chief (The Democrat party needed to act swift before they get disbanded) shows that thailand is in deep trouble. The appointment of an army general in a democratic country should not be bigger news as the opening of a new supermarket.

Prayuth said "I will TRY not to get involve in politics"

Better than saying that he will not get involved in politics then having to eat his words the next time the reds ransack the city and the army is forced to interviene.

[hammered]

This appoinmtment if confirmed is going to wind up the red shirt leaders, disillusion the PTP rank and file MPs, give Thaksin pause for thought and anger certain old families who thought they ran the military.

Most people on here also miss who actually made this pick

[chantorn]

I wonder why most generals are multi-billionaire?

[asiawatcher]

HUman rights abuser Praytuth was always in line to succeed the corrupted Anupong. Let's see he will say just like he predecessors that he stays out of politics. Until of course the elite will get under in another election than he will pump up the numbers of coups. He will probably caught with his hands in the cooky jar soon, just as Sondhi with his outrageous aircraft carrier without airplanes (at least he can live off the kickbacks) or the balloon of Anupong. (I think that as soon as Anupong is gone his nickname will be "the balloon", or the "The bomb scanner". The seller of the balloon (Zeppelin) must be still laughing about so much stupidity. The terrorists in the south see the balloon coming from 20 kilometer. Anupon neer hear of a drone. Just like Prayuth never heard of the international court of justice in which he will eventually end up, just as Sondhi for the mosque murders.

The fact that there is even a front page article in the newspapers about the fact that this person becomes the new chief (The Democrat party needed to act swift before they get disbanded) shows that thailand is in deep trouble. The appointment of an army general in a democratic country should not be bigger news as the opening of a new supermarket.

Oh God - give me strength agains the brain washed masses.....

[yellow1red1]

HUman rights abuser Praytuth was always in line to succeed the corrupted Anupong. Let's see he will say just like he predecessors that he stays out of politics. Until of course the elite will get under in another election than he will pump up the numbers of coups. He will probably caught with his hands in the cooky jar soon, just as Sondhi with his outrageous aircraft carrier without airplanes (at least he can live off the kickbacks) or the balloon of Anupong. (I think that as soon as Anupong is gone his nickname will be "the balloon", or the "The bomb scanner". The seller of the balloon (Zeppelin) must be still laughing about so much stupidity. The terrorists in the south see the balloon coming from 20 kilometer. Anupon neer hear of a drone. Just like Prayuth never heard of the international court of justice in which he will eventually end up, just as Sondhi for the mosque murders.

senor, i theenks you have name mixed up

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonthi_Boonyaratglin

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondhi_Limthongkul

[animatic]

On a side note

the too many generals argument goes to the reason the Zeppellin is a bust for the moment.

It is a perfectly airworthy craft, able to do it's design task,

IF it is no overloaded with extra hardware beyond it's designed task criteria.

There is the rub; too much extra stuff larded on board, that was never in spec when ordered,

and no one with the clout to say. Rotate it in cycles and let the generals share project time and face.

Seems no one is willing to tell certain generals their pet projects are not going up.

This thing could easily fly properly with inspec.... but they overloaded it and

no one will back off because they lose face, in their myopic mindset.

So: ' Let EVERYONE lose face; as long as it is me specifically.'

And so it doesn't fly right, as also doesn't the command structure in charge if it.

[animatic]

The promotions appear to be in line with proper criteria like seniority, chain of command and job qualifications.

That's a refreshing change from when Thaksin Shinawatra appointed his own cousin, Chaisit Shinawatra, to be Army Chief, despite dozens of others being more senior and more qualified.

Yes isn't it.

That one act may likely have been the igniting catalyst for his downfall.

The army saw him as the ultimate loose canon running roughshod in their ranks.

[Roadman]

God give me strength too for the idi...

Just as well Thailand is a constitutional monarchy and not a democracy so that the apointment of an Army General is more important than supermarket news... extremely relevant when the same field includes department stores and scum bags who torch them.

Excellent appointment and more important than who wins the upcoming election as the head thief overseas knows that just like last time the army is there to stop him and his paid goons from robbing and pillaging the country at their leisure.

[moe666]

I wonder why most generals are multi-billionaire?

Over paid

[siampolee]

I wonder why we have so many ''GENERALS'' in the military ?

[siampolee]

">Should we fear this man? <b>By THE NATION

Why, all of a sudden, does the little-known deputy Army chief attract so much political attention? Poised to replace General Anupong Paochinda and having four years to steer the Army, a coup must be the furthest thing from General Prayuth Chan-ocha's mind at the moment. Avudh Panananda reports

Although General Prayuth Chan-ocha is known to his colleagues as a mild-mannered and staid soldier, the deputy Army chief is being seen - given the backdrop of political turbulence - to have a pivotal role in a coup plot that could alter the course of Thai political history.

Regardless of whether the storyline is a figment of the imagination or an open secret, Prayuth is the man of the hour, with friends and foes alike trying to stake a claim to him as being their own kind, or threatening to destroy him if he refuses to go their way.

The red shirts and a large number of Pheu Thai MPs link him to a coup plot. Their argument is that Prayuth wants to have the door slammed shut on a possible comeback by fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Proponents of this scenario include Pheu Thai's Jatuporn Promphan, Nisit Sinthuprai, Suchart Lainamngern and Surapong Towijakchaikul.

At the other end of the opposition spectrum, a powerful Pheu Thai Party clique - led by Chavalit Yongchaiyudh andChalerm Yoobamrung - has portrayed Prayuth in a different light, harbouring hope of wooing him as an ally.

The Democrats, meanwhile, praise him as a professional soldier dedicated to toeing the line of the government team.

In the eyes of the top brass, Prayuth is the designated heir to Army chief General Anupong Paochinda. Yet the public knows and hears very little about the general who is poised to carry the Army's torch.

Within the Army ranks, Prayuth is a respected commanding officer who has been keeping a low profile.

As a graduate of Pre-Cadet Class 12, Prayuth made a wise choice early in his career by nurturing his professional ties with upperclassman Anupong from Pre-Cadet Class 10.

The two took care to watch each other's backs when they served as the Queen's royal guards in the elite 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri.

When Anupong got a career boost to become the commander of the 2nd Infantry Division in Prachin Buri, Prayuth followed suit like a shadow. There the two were doubly lucky to fall under the good grace of the then Army chief, General Prawit Wongsuwan, who is presently defence minister.

After Anupong received his due promotion as the commanding general of the 1st Army Region, Prayuth again rode on his coattails to climb the military ladder.

Between 2001 and 2005, Thaksin was at the height of his power. Soldiers, particularly his fellow graduates from Pre-Cadet Class 10, were swayed to defend his authoritarian leadership.

Under the military traditions on assignment review, the rise of Pre-Cadet Class 10 automatically eclipsed the careers of those graduated from two classes below, including Prayuth.

If the September 19, 2006 had not happened, Anupong would have been promoted upstairs and Prayuth would have faded into oblivion, as Thaksin had already sensed their wavering loyalty.

The power seizure caused an about-turn of fate in favour of the two. Anupong was catapulted into the centre of power and he brought along his top lieutenant, Prayuth.

During the coup and its aftermath, Anupong was in a precarious position. He could not count on his classmates, as most were linked to Thaksin. He had to wield his clout through Pre-Cadet Class 9's General Montri Sangkhasap.

As the junta was about to pick the Army chief in 2007, Montri joined the race. Prayuth had the rare opportunity to shine by rallying his classmates, who were then division commanders, to back Anupong's leadership.

The Anupong-Prayuth alliance goes way back, and their mutual support is seen as the anchor that makes the Army the way it currently is, both politically and militarily.

With less than nine months to go to Anupong's retirement, the spotlight has obviously been turned on Prayuth. Born in 1954, he would have four years to steer the Army before himself reaching mandatory retirement age. And his long tenure might translate into wide-ranging consequences in the political landscape.

An interesting re-read concerning

The red shirts and the yellow shirts are both making a lot of noise about Prayuth because they want to smoke him out to show his true colours.

Several coup scenarios, as churned out by the pro-Thaksin camp, have been designed to drive a wedge in the Anupong-Prayuth alliance. A case in point is Jatuporn and Nisit both claiming Prayuth was spearheading a coup plot without the backing of Anupong.

Red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn gave his take on a coup, viewing it as an opportunity to trigger an upheaval leading to a complete transformation of the political scene. Under his scenario, the coup would speed up Thaksin's comeback.

However, coalition politicians and the yellow shirts beg to differ. A coup, if it happened, would root out Thaksin's supporters and put him in permanent exile. Although the Democrats stand firm in opposing any attempts at grabbing power, their consolation is that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is said to be on the shortlist to carry on as premier should there be a coup.

The top brass has reportedly made a routine assessment of the situation. Several generals voiced concern that unfolding events could lead to a political meltdown.

The key words here are "political meltdown". Unless this happens, Prayuth will remain on the fence and is free to respond with the scripted answer of "there is no coup".

Something of an enigma and indeed we could be in for some interesting times in the not too distant future,possibly a re-run of the recent civil unrest or possibly a weeding out and delousing of the less desirable elements within the Thai political spectrum who so love the abuse of power that they can manipulate for their own good .That applies to all political hues I hasten to add.

Time alone will tell, however the carousel that passes for Thai politics may yet turn into a roller coaster yet again.

Edited August 5, 2010 by siampolee