Exporters Warned As Baht Heads Towards 30 Per Dollar

[inthepink]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

Why is it good for you? Are you going to go to the USA on holiday? Are you planning on investing overseas? Is it good that less tourist will come and spend less money when they do? Is it good because most people here on a foreign income will spend less? Are imported product prices going to be reduced? Where is the upside, except for the wealthy 5% of the Thais who can invest overseas and go on a holiday?

I don't think the Thai government runs the economy for the benefit of a few struggling foreigners, surprising as that may be.

[Jimi007]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

Why is it good for you? Are you going to go to the USA on holiday? Are you planning on investing overseas? Is it good that less tourist will come and spend less money when they do? Is it good because most people here on a foreign income will spend less? Are imported product prices going to be reduced? Where is the upside, except for the wealthy 5% of the Thais who can invest overseas and go on a holiday?

I don't think the Thai government runs the economy for the benefit of a few struggling foreigners, surprising as that may be.

I don't think you answered one of my questions, did you? But it seems the Thai Government runs the economy for the wealthy by the wealthy as in most nations...

[inthepink]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

Why is it good for you? Are you going to go to the USA on holiday? Are you planning on investing overseas? Is it good that less tourist will come and spend less money when they do? Is it good because most people here on a foreign income will spend less? Are imported product prices going to be reduced? Where is the upside, except for the wealthy 5% of the Thais who can invest overseas and go on a holiday?

I don't think the Thai government runs the economy for the benefit of a few struggling foreigners, surprising as that may be.

I don't think you answered one of my questions, did you? But it seems the Thai Government runs the economy for the wealthy by the wealthy as in most nations...

Well as far as your questions go and despite comments by other posters that the Thai government can simply buy dollars to devalue the baht I still maintain that in the long run this would cost them too much money and be detrimental to the economy as a whole. Whether or not the other poster is planning a holiday abroad or any foreign investments, as long as Thai companies can maintain their competitiveness in export markets (which they seem to be doing so far) then a strong baht is not bad news. 

I addressed my previous post to your comments on people with foreign incomes simply because there seem to be many people on this forum under the misapprehension that the Thai authorities' overriding concern should be for their welfare and their opinions of what ought to be done are based purely on self interest and have nothing to do with a desire to see the poorer Thai people's lot improved, even if that is the cloak they are hiding behind.

I would agree that most governments, including the major players in the West, run their economies to benefit the wealthy. I wouldn't expect that to change any time soon.

[Jimi007]

Why is it good for you? Are you going to go to the USA on holiday? Are you planning on investing overseas? Is it good that less tourist will come and spend less money when they do? Is it good because most people here on a foreign income will spend less? Are imported product prices going to be reduced? Where is the upside, except for the wealthy 5% of the Thais who can invest overseas and go on a holiday?

I don't think the Thai government runs the economy for the benefit of a few struggling foreigners, surprising as that may be.

I don't think you answered one of my questions, did you? But it seems the Thai Government runs the economy for the wealthy by the wealthy as in most nations...

Well as far as your questions go and despite comments by other posters that the Thai government can simply buy dollars to devalue the baht I still maintain that in the long run this would cost them too much money and be detrimental to the economy as a whole. Whether or not the other poster is planning a holiday abroad or any foreign investments, as long as Thai companies can maintain their competitiveness in export markets (which they seem to be doing so far) then a strong baht is not bad news.

I addressed my previous post to your comments on people with foreign incomes simply because there seem to be many people on this forum under the misapprehension that the Thai authorities' overriding concern should be for their welfare and their opinions of what ought to be done are based purely on self interest and have nothing to do with a desire to see the poorer Thai people's lot improved, even if that is the cloak they are hiding behind.

I would agree that most governments, including the major players in the West, run their economies to benefit the wealthy. I wouldn't expect that to change any time soon.

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Jimi007

[neverdie]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

Its a double edged sword for thai (and other countries that are experiencing this trend), sure thai can buy imports cheaper but when it comes to exporting, not so good.

[gotlost]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so. 31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

[inthepink]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so. 31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

Hope you enjoyed your sunset.

Current mid market rate from xe.com - GBP/THB = 48.6280, USD/THB = 31.5450

Edited August 24, 2010 by inthepink

[LaoPo]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

2 Doctors of Thai economics I can see.....applauding the appreciating Baht

What the good Dr's don't realize is that an expensive Baht is VERY bad for Thailand....EXTREMELY BAD.

* Exports will drop, causing internal problems and serious job losses

* Tourism will drop because the Baht is so expensive and tourists will find another destination and also causing loss of jobs

* Foreign Investments will drop and will go elsewhere.

Vietnam is controlling it's currency the opposite way by devaluing it's currency:

http://www.bloomberg...ear-market.html

LaoPo

[Jimi007]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so. 31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

Hope you enjoyed your sunset.

Current mid market rate from xe.com - GBP/THB = 48.6280, USD/THB = 31.5450

Thank you, I did enjoy the sunset, but I've seen better. Why do you bother with xe.com? It doesn't show the rate you will get here. I looked at the TT rates currently. They are currently down.02 from my confirmed transfer yesterday morning. But see the chart and you can barely see the little up blip at the very end.

[lovelomsak]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

2 Doctors of Thai economics I can see.....applauding the appreciating Baht

What the good Dr's don't realize is that an expensive Baht is VERY bad for Thailand....EXTREMELY BAD.

* Exports will drop, causing internal problems and serious job losses

* Tourism will drop because the Baht is so expensive and tourists will find another destination and also causing loss of jobs

* Foreign Investments will drop and will go elsewhere.

Vietnam is controlling it's currency the opposite way by devaluing it's currency:

http://www.bloomberg...ear-market.html

LaoPo

You are so wrong and so indoctrinated. All you are stating is the rhetoric of financial gurus who got us in the financial mess we have. The Thai baht being strong is good for Thailand and time will prove this. Bloomberg has been seriously wrong before and is again and will be quite often for the next few years until they admit to the strengh and depth of the asian economy..

Exports willnot drop. Tourism may drop yes. What you fail to see is Thailand is a quickly developing industrial country. In the not to distant future its economy will mean more to the US than Japans. Thailands currency will take the position of the one used for most asian trade. You should turn some lights on so you donot live in the dark and can see things clearer.

[inthepink]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so.            31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

Hope you enjoyed your sunset.

Current mid market rate from xe.com - GBP/THB = 48.6280, USD/THB = 31.5450

Thank you, I did enjoy the sunset, but I've seen better. Why do you bother with xe.com? It doesn't show the rate you will get here. I looked at the TT rates currently. They are currently down.02 from my confirmed transfer yesterday morning. But see the chart and you can barely see the little up blip at the very end.

Whenever I check xe.com, the rate I get from Nationwide (i.e. the visa exchange rates) is always pretty close...that's why basically.

[inthepink]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

2 Doctors of Thai economics I can see.....applauding the appreciating Baht  

What the good Dr's don't realize is that an expensive Baht is VERY bad for Thailand....EXTREMELY BAD.

* Exports will drop, causing internal problems and serious job losses

* Tourism will drop because the Baht is so expensive and tourists will find another destination and also causing loss of jobs

* Foreign Investments will drop and will go elsewhere.

Vietnam is controlling it's currency the opposite way by devaluing it's currency:

http://www.bloomberg...ear-market.html

LaoPo

You are so wrong and so indoctrinated. All you are stating is the rhetoric of financial gurus who got us in the financial mess we have. The Thai baht being strong is good for Thailand and time will prove this. Bloomberg has been seriously wrong before and is again and will be quite often for the next few years until they admit  to the strengh and depth of the asian economy..

Exports willnot drop. Tourism may drop yes. What you fail to see is Thailand is a quickly developing industrial country. In the not to distant future its economy will mean more to the US than Japans. Thailands currency will take the position of the one used for most asian trade. You should turn some lights on so you donot live in the dark and can see things clearer.

He is certainly 100% wrong about foreign investment. What kind of investor looks for countries with weak currencies to invest in? The very existence of foreign inflows of capital will push a currency's value up and the last thing you want to do is go hunting for economically unstable countries who are likely to try and devalue their currency. You wouldn't get a very good return by pursuing that as an investment policy.

[Thai at Heart]

Top 200 - Thai Companies of year 2007 (Bt. Million)

1 PTT Plc บริษัท ปตท. จำกัด (มหาชน) 660,097.00

2 Toyota Motor Thailand Co, Ltd บริษัท โตโยต้า มอเตอร์ ประเทศไทย จำกัด 200,813.00

3 Thai Oil Plc บริษัท ไทยออยล์ จำกัด (มหาชน) 179,117.00

4 Thai Petrochemical Industry Plc บริษัท อุตสาหกรรมปิโตรเคมีกัลไทย จำกัด (มหาชน) 167,374.00

5 Thai Airways International Plc บริษัท การบินไทย จำกัด (มหาชน) 153,717.00

6 Esso (Thailand) Plc บริษัท เอสโซ่ (ประเทศไทย) จำกัด (มหาชน) 150,122.00

7 Rayong Refinery Plc บริษัท โรงกลั่นน้ำมันระยอง จำกัด (มหาชน) 117,932.00

8 Star Petroleum Refining Co, Ltd บริษัท สตาร์ ปิโตรเลียม รีไฟน์นิ่ง จำกัด 120,297.00

9 Advanced Info Service Plc บริษัท แอดวานซ์ อินโฟร์ เซอร์วิส จำกัด (มหาชน) 80,990.70

10 The Shell Company Of Thailand Ltd บริษัท เชลล์แห่งประเทศไทย จำกัด 102,188

Top 200 companies

A few years old, but it hasn't changed that much.

What use would a weaker baht be to any of these companies? Capital goods more expensive to purchase, crude oil more expensive to buy. Do any of us fancy paying 50 baht a litre for gasoline if the baht collapsed tomorrow?

Of course some exporters will suffer, but I can definitively remember Korn talking 7 or 8 years ago about how Thailand had become completely imbalanced as an economy as exporters flooded into Thailand after 97. I believe he wants Thai industry to be able to have access to capital goods and improve their efficiency be they exporters or domestic. This is a lot easier to do at 31 to the USD than 40.

I believe he doesn't see it as his responsibility to prop up inefficient exporters who are relying on what he sees as an undervalued baht to make their profits. However, if exporters want to invest in capital goods, it is a hel_l of a lot easier to do at 31 to the USD than 40.

Politically it is risky, but the country is politically a mess anyway, so he is going on his way. To be completely cynical, a PTP supporter on minimum wage is no more likely to vote democrat if he has a job or his employer goes out of business. This is the cynical reality of what may be going on here.

Funny Vietnam is on the list of countries going the devaluation route. I would imagine we will be reading about Siam Cement, PTT and some more of the bigger Thai companies investing more and more over there in the next year or two.

I somehow believe he wouldn't be pursuing this policy if the CEO of these 10 companies listed didn't approve.

[Jimi007]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so. 31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

Hope you enjoyed your sunset.

Current mid market rate from xe.com - GBP/THB = 48.6280, USD/THB = 31.5450

Thank you, I did enjoy the sunset, but I've seen better. Why do you bother with xe.com? It doesn't show the rate you will get here. I looked at the TT rates currently. They are currently down.02 from my confirmed transfer yesterday morning. But see the chart and you can barely see the little up blip at the very end.

Whenever I check xe.com, the rate I get from Nationwide (i.e. the visa exchange rates) is always pretty close...that's why basically.

Visa exchange rate? What credit card or ATM? Check this site as it has every Thai Banks current rate. TT rate is the ATM rate, but I transfer by the internet and avoid the ATM charges. See link: Bank exchange rates

[sotsira]

Okay, I agree with you especially on your last sentence. But, I'm off to enjoy the sun setting over the ocean! The dollar did stop it's fall this afternoon, the last I looked.

This post has been edited by Jimi007: 4 minutes ago

I don't thank so. 31.14 USD and 47.81 GBP

Hope you enjoyed your sunset.

Current mid market rate from xe.com - GBP/THB = 48.6280, USD/THB = 31.5450

Thank you, I did enjoy the sunset, but I've seen better. Why do you bother with xe.com? It doesn't show the rate you will get here. I looked at the TT rates currently. They are currently down.02 from my confirmed transfer yesterday morning. But see the chart and you can barely see the little up blip at the very end.

Whenever I check xe.com, the rate I get from Nationwide (i.e. the visa exchange rates) is always pretty close...that's why basically.

If your using Nationwide then this would be of interest to you:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/savings-and-banking/article.html?in_article_id=510578&in_page_id=7

[LaoPo]

You are so wrong and so indoctrinated. All you are stating is the rhetoric of financial gurus who got us in the financial mess we have. The Thai baht being strong is good for Thailand and time will prove this. Bloomberg has been seriously wrong before and is again and will be quite often for the next few years until they admit to the strengh and depth of the asian economy..

Exports willnot drop. Tourism may drop yes. What you fail to see is Thailand is a quickly developing industrial country. In the not to distant future its economy will mean more to the US than Japans. Thailands currency will take the position of the one used for most asian trade. You should turn some lights on so you donot live in the dark and can see things clearer.

..flattering comments from another Dr. in Thai economics.

Yes, Thailand is developing in it's industry output but many do not realize that Thailands' economy is in a twisted shape and deep trouble for it's citizens' future.

Next to that it's NOT Thailand's own industry but mainly "owned" by large foreign companies and/or shareholders who invested their capital in Thailand. Thailand itself has no "brainer" industry; Japan has.

The moment the GDP output of Thailand (read: exports) is becoming too expensive the companies pack their bags and move on. It happened and is still happening in the west and will happen in LOS too.

Another example is rice: Thailand is the largest exporter of rice in the world but in fact only a small producer; If rice becomes too expensive, buyers will go elsewhere.

How do YOU solve the problem for the jobless workers (17 million workers in agriculture)?

Sure, 43%+ of Thailands' GDP is created from industry but "produced" by only 20% of Thai labor force. Total Thai labor force is some 40 million workers so 8 million of them produce 40% of GDP;

WHAT do the other workers do ?

Agriculture, on the other hand, produces a mere meager less than 12% of GDP but has a staggering labor force of 42% or 17.2 million people, mostly poor.

You want numbers for the Service Industry ? a staggering 38% (or 15.2 million workers) of the labor force produces 45% of GDP.

See? Thailand has a big problem and if you say that Thailand will once become more important than Japan to the US you do not realize than Thailand is just a small "island-country" in an enormous ocean of other countries, totaling more than 60% of the world's population or around 4 to 4,2 BILLION people in Asia.

Thailand has a mere 66 million people whilst Indonesia has 240 million; Vietnam 88 million; Guangdong province in China 100 million people; Japan 127 million people; Many people do not even realize or know that a country, around the corner from Thailand, Bangladesh has a staggering 156 million people, apart from it's neighbor India with 1.156M people.

If Thailand becomes TOO EXPENSIVE, read: a high Baht the country is killing itself and other countries are standing in line to take over Thailand's role.

Period, and if you think otherwise....

Dream on

Me, indoctrinated? .. it's simple economics....1+1 = 2 and not 3 as you dream on with an expensive Baht.

LaoPo

[rubl]

You are so wrong and so indoctrinated. All you are stating is the rhetoric of financial gurus who got us in the financial mess we have. The Thai baht being strong is good for Thailand and time will prove this. Bloomberg has been seriously wrong before and is again and will be quite often for the next few years until they admit to the strengh and depth of the asian economy..

Exports willnot drop. Tourism may drop yes. What you fail to see is Thailand is a quickly developing industrial country. In the not to distant future its economy will mean more to the US than Japans. Thailands currency will take the position of the one used for most asian trade. You should turn some lights on so you donot live in the dark and can see things clearer.

..flattering comments from another Dr. in Thai economics.

Yes, Thailand is developing in it's industry output but many do not realize that Thailands' economy is in a twisted shape and deep trouble for it's citizens' future.

Next to that it's NOT Thailand's own industry but mainly "owned" by large foreign companies and/or shareholders who invested their capital in Thailand. Thailand itself has no "brainer" industry; Japan has.

The moment the GDP output of Thailand (read: exports) is becoming too expensive the companies pack their bags and move on. It happened and is still happening in the west and will happen in LOS too.

Another example is rice: Thailand is the largest exporter of rice in the world but in fact only a small producer; If rice becomes too expensive, buyers will go elsewhere.

How do YOU solve the problem for the jobless workers (17 million workers in agriculture)?

Sure, 43%+ of Thailands' GDP is created from industry but "produced" by only 20% of Thai labor force. Total Thai labor force is some 40 million workers so 8 million of them produce 40% of GDP;

WHAT do the other workers do ?

Agriculture, on the other hand, produces a mere meager less than 12% of GDP but has a staggering labor force of 42% or 17.2 million people, mostly poor.

You want numbers for the Service Industry ? a staggering 38% (or 15.2 million workers) of the labor force produces 45% of GDP.

See? Thailand has a big problem and if you say that Thailand will once become more important than Japan to the US you do not realize than Thailand is just a small "island-country" in an enormous ocean of other countries, totaling more than 60% of the world's population or around 4 to 4,2 BILLION people in Asia.

Thailand has a mere 66 million people whilst Indonesia has 240 million; Vietnam 88 million; Guangdong province in China 100 million people; Japan 127 million people; Many people do not even realize or know that a country, around the corner from Thailand, Bangladesh has a staggering 156 million people, apart from it's neighbor India with 1.156M people.

If Thailand becomes TOO EXPENSIVE, read: a high Baht the country is killing itself and other countries are standing in line to take over Thailand's role.

Period, and if you think otherwise....

Dream on

Me, indoctrinated? .. it's simple economics....1+1 = 2 and not 3 as you dream on with an expensive Baht.

LaoPo

Are there still people around here who remember the 'old days' in 1997 when the Thai Baht was pegged to the US$ at a ridiculous 25/1 and the national foreign reserve was depleted trying to keep the Baht at that level? The best the current government can do is try to avoid wild fluctuations, but that's all. The rest is global economics and a bit of speculation.

[LaoPo]

Are there still people around here who remember the 'old days' in 1997 when the Thai Baht was pegged to the US$ at a ridiculous 25/1 and the national foreign reserve was depleted trying to keep the Baht at that level? The best the current government can do is try to avoid wild fluctuations, but that's all. The rest is global economics and a bit of speculation.

I think the whole -financial- world still remembers 1997...and the Asian financial crisis caused by Thailand when the country was, in fact, totally bankrupt because of the immense foreign debts it had, even before the Thai government floated the Baht

LaoPo

[mommysboy]

UK basic pension about 97sqid a week.

assuming level stays around 150 mark

Dollar 31.5 aprox today UK 48.5 = aprox 4,700 bahoes.

Dollar 25.5 say the UK 38.5 = aprox 3,700 " .

Still Ok ! live on it easy here, like Thailand but Thailand loses 1000 a week.

Err! if you say so. Incidentally, don't you get a bit fed up of rice and water?

Fortunately, I priced in on a worse case scenario of about 45 to the pound some while ago and actually have come out ahead of the game- less competitors too. I'm not sure the pound will weaken much more but could see the dollar dip to below 30.

Like many I find it difficult to understand how exports can rise on the back of a strong baht, yetr we are told Thailand is undergoing a miracle recovery.

And Aunt Vera's got nads too.!

[LaoPo]

You are so wrong and so indoctrinated. All you are stating is the rhetoric of financial gurus who got us in the financial mess we have. The Thai baht being strong is good for Thailand and time will prove this. Bloomberg has been seriously wrong before and is again and will be quite often for the next few years until they admit to the strengh and depth of the asian economy..

Exports willnot drop. Tourism may drop yes. What you fail to see is Thailand is a quickly developing industrial country. In the not to distant future its economy will mean more to the US than Japans. Thailands currency will take the position of the one used for most asian trade. You should turn some lights on so you donot live in the dark and can see things clearer.

Another example is rice: Thailand is the largest exporter of rice in the world but in fact only a small producer; If rice becomes too expensive, buyers will go elsewhere.

How do YOU solve the problem for the jobless workers (17 million workers in agriculture)?

LaoPo

Commenting to my own post after I just ran into this article, proving Thailands' problems, ahead:

July 29, 2010

Thailand Rice Exports Facing Tough Competition

Rice exports from Thailand, the world's largest rice exporting nation have plummeted more than 30 % in the first half of this year mainly due to stiff competition from cheaper Vietnamese jasmine rice.

According to Thai Rice Exporters Association "More buyers in Hong Kong are turning to Vietnamese rice as its jasmine rice is about $550 PMT while Thai jasmine rice is sold at $900 PMT".

Thailand's Department of Export Promotion reported that Vietnam sold $11 million worth of rice to Hong Kong and China in the first five months of this year. The amount is almost equal to Thailand's total rice exports to Hong Kong for an entire year.

Source: Oryza.com

Vietnam devalued already 3 times (!) since November last year, making their export products more attractive whilst Thailands' Baht is increasing.

A dramatic -30% in rice exports alone in the first 6 months of this year and still some members here say that an expensive Thai Baht is good for Thailand.

Unbelievable, especially when those dropping exports are affecting Thai agriculture workers

LaoPo

[Kwasaki]

I think you probably meant 48.7, not 47.8

Yes it's up and down like a yo-yo and sometimes the banks give better rates.

Got fifty something last week Nationwide using Kasikorn ATM.

I know there's a bank that does not charge the 150 but there ain't one here in Sukhothai.

[inthepink]

Visa exchange rate? What credit card or ATM? Check this site as it has every Thai Banks current rate. TT rate is the ATM rate, but I transfer by the internet and avoid the ATM charges. See link: Bank exchange rates

Visa exchange rates: http://corporate.vis....jsp?src=ex_rez

These are the rates that are used by banks when converting from one currency to another, for international transactions that use the visa payment system. They are not specific to any particular card or ATM. The last value for yesterday was 48.747 THB to GPB, almost exactly the same as xe.com's mid-market rates, which is why I use xe.com when working out how much money I have in my current account.

@sotsira Thanks, I'm aware of the new charges that Nationwide are introducing.

Edited August 25, 2010 by inthepink

[inthepink]

I think you probably meant 48.7, not 47.8

Yes it's up and down like a yo-yo and sometimes the banks give better rates.

Got fifty something last week Nationwide using Kasikorn ATM.

I know there's a bank that does not charge the 150 but there ain't one here in Sukhothai.

Aeon ATMs do not charge 150 baht although there is a thread on here somewhere with people complaining they have had problems when using them. I haven't had any problems with them yet. According to their service location search facility they don't have any ATMs in Sukhothai though, as you say.

[inthepink]

Are there still people around here who remember the 'old days' in 1997 when the Thai Baht was pegged to the US$ at a ridiculous 25/1 and the national foreign reserve was depleted trying to keep the Baht at that level? The best the current government can do is try to avoid wild fluctuations, but that's all. The rest is global economics and a bit of speculation.

I think the whole -financial- world still remembers 1997...and the Asian financial crisis caused by Thailand when the country was, in fact, totally bankrupt because of the immense foreign debts it had, even before the Thai government floated the Baht

LaoPo

The baht was floated in 1997 specifically because they could not support it at the level it was pegged at the time and were having to borrow large amounts of money to try and do so. You seem to be suggesting they should make the same mistake twice.

Many Thai companies have exposure to foreign debt and import materials to use in the production of goods. These companies obviously benefit from a stronger baht. Instead of making sarcastic comments about other people's understanding of economics maybe you should try and understand the subject yourself first. You even mention immense foreign debts in your post but seem unable to comprehend how these can be exacerbated by a weak currency.

Edited August 25, 2010 by inthepink

[Chunky1]

The bottom line is that the USA is running up bills that it can't pay. That means that the standard of living in the USA is going to decrease. It means that America will have higher prices and thus unable to consume as much. It means the world's economies will not move as quickly. Attempts to manipulate the THB will have negative consequences.

People want to use the Chinese model of heavy government meddling as the thing to do. There are certainly risks to what the Chinese are doing.

Thailand has taken the safer road.

Edited August 25, 2010 by Chunky1

[LaoPo]

The baht was floated in 1997 specifically because they could not support it at the level it was pegged at the time and were having to borrow large amounts of money to try and do so. You seem to be suggesting they should make the same mistake twice.

Many Thai companies have exposure to foreign debt and import materials to use in the production of goods. These companies obviously benefit from a stronger baht. Instead of making sarcastic comments about other people's understanding of economics maybe you should try and understand the subject yourself first. You even mention immense foreign debts in your post but seem unable to comprehend how these can be exacerbated by a weak currency.

1. Don't read things which were not written.

2. I know why the government floated the Baht.

3. Thai companies/industries do indeed IMPORT goods (also to manufacture goods for EXPORTS) but the majority of imports is in oil, electricity, gas, pre-fabricated spare parts mainly from Japan, capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials.

Thai imports however are a lot less than Exports ($ 119B versus $ 154B in 2009) and thus is Thailand suffering from an expensive Baht and an immediate danger to the economy and it's labor economy.

A SHOCKING loss of 30% in Thai rice exports in the first 6 months of 2010 proves my point.

5. I mentioned immense Thai foreign debts at the time that the Asian crisis in 1997 emerged, caused by Thailand, BECAUSE of her immense debts and a high Baht when it was pegged to the US$.

I didn't talk about a weak currency at that time. You just tried to implement I did. I did not.

The CAUSE of the crisis was because of the immense foreign borrowing at high short term interest rates. When the US$ value raised and the growth in Thailand and other SE Nations went downhill, together with a dramatic drop in exports, also BECAUSE of the expensive Baht.....voila, the crisis was there.

You don't seem to understand that the same Ghost is lying around the corner right now, again.

The main reason I claim so is because of the very bad situation the US is in, next to Europe's hesitation of buying more goods from Asia due to their own problems; but, of course all world wide economical problems are interconnected.

Result: dropping exports and problems for Thailand.

I can't help it if you fail to see this. It's really about simple economics.

LaoPo

[rubl]

The baht was floated in 1997 specifically because they could not support it at the level it was pegged at the time and were having to borrow large amounts of money to try and do so. You seem to be suggesting they should make the same mistake twice.

Many Thai companies have exposure to foreign debt and import materials to use in the production of goods. These companies obviously benefit from a stronger baht. Instead of making sarcastic comments about other people's understanding of economics maybe you should try and understand the subject yourself first. You even mention immense foreign debts in your post but seem unable to comprehend how these can be exacerbated by a weak currency.

1. Don't read things which were not written.

2. I know why the government floated the Baht.

3. Thai companies/industries do indeed IMPORT goods (also to manufacture goods for EXPORTS) but the majority of imports is in oil, electricity, gas, pre-fabricated spare parts mainly from Japan, capital goods, intermediate goods and raw materials.

Thai imports however are a lot less than Exports ($ 119B versus $ 154B in 2009) and thus is Thailand suffering from an expensive Baht and an immediate danger to the economy and it's labor economy.

A SHOCKING loss of 30% in Thai rice exports in the first 6 months of 2010 proves my point.

5. I mentioned immense Thai foreign debts at the time that the Asian crisis in 1997 emerged, caused by Thailand, BECAUSE of her immense debts and a high Baht when it was pegged to the US$.

I didn't talk about a weak currency at that time. You just tried to implement I did. I did not.

The CAUSE of the crisis was because of the immense foreign borrowing at high short term interest rates. When the US$ value raised and the growth in Thailand and other SE Nations went downhill, together with a dramatic drop in exports, also BECAUSE of the expensive Baht.....voila, the crisis was there.

You don't seem to understand that the same Ghost is lying around the corner right now, again.

The main reason I claim so is because of the very bad situation the US is in, next to Europe's hesitation of buying more goods from Asia due to their own problems; but, of course all world wide economical problems are interconnected.

Result: dropping exports and problems for Thailand.

I can't help it if you fail to see this. It's really about simple economics.

LaoPo

Ad. 3. 30% drop in rice exports has more to do with price setting due to the 'rice price pledging' scheme of the government distorting prices than rise of Baht IMHO.

[LaoPo]

The bottom line is that the USA is running up bills that it can't pay. That means that the standard of living in the USA is going to decrease. It means that America will have higher prices and thus unable to consume as much. It means the world's economies will not move as quickly. Attempts to manipulate the THB will have negative consequences.

People want to use the Chinese model of heavy government meddling as the thing to do. There are certainly risks to what the Chinese are doing.

Thailand has taken the safer road.

1. agree with your first observations.

2. You cannot compare China's economy model with Thailand's; impossible.

Thailand is a free country since WWII which is 65 years since the end of the war. China opened up since 1980 (35 years later), slowly but only "fierce" since about a mere 2 decades.

3. Safer road for Thailand? I don't know; only time will tell but it's obvious that not only Thailand and China will suffer from a decreasing US and European economy;

we ALL will.

Personally, I think the US$ will take a beat it has never seen before and will influence the other currencies in the world also, the Baht included and the Baht will therefore collapse accordingly.

That "beat" will happen sooner than most think.

OK, shoot me but watch the currencies ; I will wait for apologies, later

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Ad. 3.

30% drop in rice exports has more to do with price setting due to the 'rice price pledging' scheme of the government distorting prices than rise of Baht IMHO.

The Thai Rice Export Association says different:

According to Thai Rice Exporters Association "More buyers in Hong Kong are turning to Vietnamese rice as its jasmine rice is about $550 PMT while Thai jasmine rice is sold at $900 PMT".

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__3836875

It IS due to enormous price differences and not -just- government steps.

Thai jasmine rice is almost double the price of Vietnam.

LaoPo

[philliphn]

Good news for us Thai. Finally our currency appreciate rather than depreciate.

You might not be so happy if your walking ATM Bufalo migrates back to where they came from.

A lot of Thais in Issan will no longer get money from their daughters. "No customers".