Bangkok May Be Uninhabitable In Seven Years

[Tigs]

We should be frightened of Global Warming, it is no joking matter. Anyone with eyes, ears and half a brain can see well documented reports of people losing their homes and/or livelihoods due to rising temperatures and sea levels. Many progressive signs leave no doubt that a great change is taking place.

What might be debatable are the causal relationships with human activity. Which implies the possibility or not of our ability to affect the change or its rate.

The separation of evidence for these two hypotheses is extremely important and often obscure. This raises the temperature of political and scientific communities somewhat! The mistaken stand that because the cause is not completely clear no action is possible or at least a waste of money cannot be right. That we must take defensive action against Global Warming cannot be denied by intelligent informed people.

Ok, I have eyes, ears and at least half a brain. Show me! Show me anywhere you like that what you say is true! It is all bolleux! Show me the well documented reports of rising sea levels and Global Warming. seems like the Proff is trying to whip up another 100 Million in Government Grant money to 'research the issue'.

Just what 'defensive' action to a force of nature do you propose?

And why will Polar bears be extinct in 10 years? 20 years ago there were 5000 of the beggars, now there are over 25000!! The reason they swim so far for food is not because there is no ice, but because there is not enough food to feed them, and sustain the population which is 5 times greater than 20 years ago!

Where is the proof of the warming? The arctic sea pack has only reduced by 7% in size since 1981, meanwhile in the same time frame the antarctic sea pack has increased by 45%. If there is any warming, non of it is to do with Carbon Dioxide, the recently named 'pollutant', without which we would die.

If you are 'intelligent' and more importantly, 'informed', then you can actually deny all this clap trap.

Has anybody ever thought that any warming might just be to do with that really large yellow hot thing up in the sky, that is currently, steadily working it's way up to the high point of solar activity in an 11 year cycle. A high point of activity that could well exceed all those in living memory. Find a cave may be the only defence.

Edited September 18, 2010 by Tigs

[moe666]

Well, it certainly reads like a fairy story, all right.

There is a certain sort of person who needs to make themselves feel important and meaningful by pretending to have discovered the latest Oh No We're Doomed scenario, and this fellow fits the profile perfectly.

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

Prof. Dr. Art-Ong Jumsai Na Ayudhya, Thailand

Name: Dr. Art-ong Jumsai Na Ayudhya

Contact Address: 99 Mu 2, Lamnarai, Chaibadan, Lopburi 15130, Thailand

Email:

Education

• B.A. (Hons), M.A. Mechanical Sciences, Cambridge, U.K.
• D.I.C., Ph.D. Communications, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London University
• Ph.D. Education – Curriculum and Instruction, Faculty of Education, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

Past Experiences

1. Senior Lecture at the Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University
2. Deputy Dean of Students AffairsDirector of the Institute of Scientific and Technological Research of Thailand
3. Member of Parliament (Elected three times)Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Education
4. Secretary of the House Committee on Science, Technology and Environment
5. Executive Director, Asia Pacific Parliamentary Union secretary to the Foreign Minister
6. Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University
7. Special Lecturer at all the Universities in Thailand
8. Training of teachers in Human Values Education in many countries in all continents
9. Three times elected Member of Parliament
10. Elected Member of the House of Senate

Special Experiences

Participated in NASA's Vlking Space Project in the design of the automatic landing device.

Expert in the National Research Council on rockets for Use in the Artificial Rain Making Project

Present Position

• Director of the Institute of Sathya Sai Education, Thailand
• Chief Administrator of the Sathya Sai School, Thailand
• Official Trainer of Teachers for the Ministry of Education in Human Values Education

Awards

• Top Scientist of the Year for Invention that is of benefit to the Country, 1987
• Philosopher of Thai Wisdom, Naresuan University, 2005
• Best Book of the Year – Path to Peace – for children age 12 to 18 years, 2007
• Knight Commander of the Order of the White Elephant
• Knight Commander of the Order of the Crown of Thailand
• Knight Grand Cordon of the Order of the White Elephant
• Knight Grand Cordon of the Order of the Crown of Thailand

Publications

1. 1991 Handbook for Teachers in Education Human Values
2. 1997 Five Human Values and Human Excellence: Integration of Human Values in Mathematics and Sciences

Being Thai his cv is wasted on TV posters,

[Tigs]

Where on the Proff's CV does it indicate that he is even remotely Scientifically qualified to start issuing doomsday predictions? He is a trainer of teachers. There is nothing startling or outstanding, and for a Professor, his publications are embarrassing.

[canuckamuck]

Sigh, the claims get wilder.

I guess in 7 years when nothing has changed and the earth has been cooling for more than a decade nobody will remember this claim.

I think I should get into the business of alarmism, it certainly is popular and is freely sponsored by the media.

[ratcatcher]

Personally, I'd say its been uninhabitable for quite some time already.

As long as the airport isnt affected,Bangkok can drown in its own vermin for all i care.

If Bangkok floods, so will the airport. We don't call it Swampy for nothing.

Don Mueang may be safer.

[Thaddeus]

The mistaken stand that because the cause is not completely clear no action is possible or at least a waste of money cannot be right.

Raise the money needed by levying a huge tax on every country with an active volcano.

Volcanic eruptions actually release suphur dioxide which cools the atmosphere. So they may be our great hope in terms of halting so-called "global warming"

The cooling effect of sulphur dioxide released by volcanoes is very short lived. And they also kick out other stuff....

Chlorine

Chlorine gas can negatively effect the earth's environment. Chlorine is emitted from volcanoes in the form of hydrochloric acid (HCl), which breaks down into chlorine and chlorine monoxide (ClO) molecules. The sulfate aerosols furnish sites for chemical reactions that release the chlorine atoms. These eruption-derived chlorine atoms are added to man-produced chlorine already present in the stratosphere. The reactive chlorine atoms then proceed to destroy ozone, with each chlorine atom being recycled many times.

The issue I have with "the world's heating up and it's our fault" brigade is that they tend to focus on CO2 as being the only reason, there are many factors in what causes climate change, and 'man' makes very little contribution to most of them.

Paul and Arthur said it best.

"all lies and jests, still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest"

(P.S. still gave you a greenie though for at least thinking about it)

[ballpoint]

At a seminar yesterday about the impact of global warming on Chiang Mai residents, Ajong said humans were mainly to blame for such disasters because they were using up natural resources, chopping down forests and kept emitting greenhouse gases with no regard for the future.

So humans are mainly to blame?

So far there have been two significant changes to the Earth.

Firstly, the planet's axis has shifted, changing weather patterns, and secondly, the Earth's crust has displaced, causing more frequent and more severe earthquakes and tsunami disasters.

Then perhaps the good doctor would please explain to us just how using up natural resources, chopping down forests and emitting greenhouse gases have caused the planet's axis to shift and the earth's crust to "displace"? Yes, Bangkok is sinking as water is drained from aquifers beneath it, but that can hardly be termed "crustal displacement". And how many earthquakes and tsunamis has it caused over the decades it's been taking place? Further more, how can humans shift the earth's axis? Is there a secret plan to get the population of China to all jump at the same time? Or has he found a place to stand with his lever?

Not only is he mixing cause with effect, he's also trying to find a cause for the cause. Yes, the earth's axis is shifting. Nothing wrong with that, it's called precession, and it's a continuous process. As the earth spins it "wobbles" slightly, due to the gravitational effects of the sun and moon. This causes the axis itself to rotate, just like a spinning top, or a hydrogen atom in an MRI scan. It's thought to be a major contributor to most of the major climate change that has ever happened on the earth, and has been going on far before the human race was but a twinkle in that part of a single celled organism's cell that would evolve to become an eye. The Dr seems to be agreeing that this is indeed a cause of changes in climate, but he then tries to attribute this cause to a human one. There's a word for that; superstition. "If I don't step on a crack I'll have good luck". "If I stay home on Friday the 13th I'll be okay". "If I sacrifice this virgin the sun will come up". "If I stop driving my car the earth will cease precessing and the weather will never change again".

[Hawk]

The evidence is quite clear that global warming is real but certainly not at a rate that the unscientific professor claims. I suppose you don't need to have science degrees these days to go around making objectionable claims? You know, 6 meters in the next 10 years, that would put nearly every major city in the world under water, not just Bangkok which is already under water every rainy season anyway.

Major earthquakes in Chiangmai, yes, well, maybe not as the fault line up there is minor?

Tsunamis in the gulf of Thailand, well again maybe not as where would they be originating from?

Shifts in the poles, so what as it is happening all the time. Remember folks that the Earth wobbles on its axis as the Earth is not a round ball but bulges in the middle.

Tectonic plates shifting, so what, it happens all the time.

[WarpSpeed]

I seem to remember another Thai geologist that was vilified and discredited for forewarning of the 2003 Tsunami's so who knows?? My plans are to be long gone by then so no worries for me..

[Jingthing]

I don't think it is wise to put exact numbers of years or specific predictions to the effects of global warming. They will of course be off the mark, such specificity is beyond science. This just gives the skeptics (who are clearly wrong) more ammunition to poo poo the reality of it.

[creck]

Still some are confusing man-made global warming with global warming the facts for global warming are irrefutable. Look at the NASA site. They introduce it as very likely human-induced; not - is human induced. But that the climate is changing there can be no doubt and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years according to them. I would say more pointedly during the existence of human civilisation.

That there exist strong lobbies on all sides of describing this hugely important trend is not surprising. Look at the ‘Counterclaims of conspiracy’ part of the Wiki conspiracy reference. </SPAN>It will change our way of life - business etc totally. The prime concern of human activity systems is survival and the businesses depending on fossil fuels see their survival being threatened.

The important point is the survival of our children. Catastrophe Theory can describe a system’s tipping point, the problem with climate, is we don’t know exactly how all the effects of the parameters in a climate system interact. Especially as we are seeing values never seen before. But modelling and historical evidence indicates that it may have several stable states and we are moving out of one. It may reach a tipping point soon, we don’t know, but if it does, we may have only a few decades to adjust. (Or it may take centuries)

I think the focus and false importance placed on the cause(s) of Global warming is preventing us from getting on with the important job of defensive planning and action. Even in the NASA site the concentration of CO2 (a possible cause) is placed above the global warming facts and the dangers from them. (This may be the difference between science and engineering. ) I am sure that defence will be quicker and cheaper than attempting to understand and then control this complex system. We may find it impossibly complex, or worse we may think we have solved it and then with horror in our demise; realise we got it wrong. That ‘understanding’ effort can continue usefully but is not the most important.

To those that say we cannot defend against “nature” I suggest they look at Iceland and volcanoes. The construction industry and earthquakes. Human civilization has always been an overcoming of nature with diverse ingenious artefacts and systems - from farming, water reservoirs, air con. units to submarines.

[canuckamuck]

I don't think it is wise to put exact numbers of years or specific predictions to the effects of global warming. They will of course be off the mark, such specificity is beyond science. This just gives the skeptics (who are clearly wrong) more ammunition to poo poo the reality of it.

What part of that news article was realistic. Every one needs to poo poo these hysterical claims, in order for the genuine science to have it's proper respect. The warmies should see what this kind of manipulation does to their credibility. But obviously the warm camp has no interest in self regulating.

Edited September 18, 2010 by canuckamuck

[whybother]

The earth is definitely warming.

My proof: 10,000 years ago, ice covered half the planet. Now, it doesn't.

Is it man made global warming? How many people were on the earth 10,000 years ago when the ice started melting?

[rubl]

The earth is definitely warming.

My proof: 10,000 years ago, ice covered half the planet. Now, it doesn't.

Is it man made global warming? How many people were on the earth 10,000 years ago when the ice started melting?

It still makes sense to actively reduce pollution of any type and even start to cleanup. You don't have to be green, just sensible

[RickBradford]

I seem to remember another Thai geologist that was vilified and discredited for forewarning of the 2003 Tsunami's so who knows?? My plans are to be long gone by then so no worries for me..

That seems reasonable to me, since there was no 2003 tsunami, not near Thailand, anyway.

[elcent]

No doubt about that. We have trashed the planet and still doing it.

Trash your skin and see what happens to your body. Easy to understand I hope.

[WarpSpeed]

I seem to remember another Thai geologist that was vilified and discredited for forewarning of the 2003 Tsunami's so who knows?? My plans are to be long gone by then so no worries for me..

That seems reasonable to me, since there was no 2003 tsunami, not near Thailand, anyway.

Pedant..

Edited September 18, 2010 by WarpSpeed

[naiharn]

Well, it certainly reads like a fairy story, all right.

There is a certain sort of person who needs to make themselves feel important and meaningful by pretending to have discovered the latest Oh No We're Doomed scenario, and this fellow fits the profile perfectly.

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

...

(huge list of achievements and pachydermic awards)

So this chap appears to be at the very top level of Thai scientific repute. Let's examine some of his claims:

Gulf of Thailand would be hit by tsunamis Ajong said humans were mainly to blame for such disasters

What? How can humans possibly cause earthquakes and tsunamis?

Ajong explained that over the past three decades the temperature has risen

Actually, over the last decade there has been little or no rise in global temperature.

earthquakes being of greater magnitude.

Where is the evidence of this, and how can humans be responsible for it?

Ajong said polar bears would be extinct in less than 10 years

Who believes this? The World Conservation Union for example has cited a "suspected population reduction of >30% within 45 years" - that is a huge difference from 'extinction in just ten years'. Many believe even this is too pessimistic, pointing out that the exact total population of polar bears is unknown, and some populations are increasing.

Earthquakes within the 6-Richter scale and severe flooding would hit provinces in the North

Just what is the '6-Richter' scale? (To be fair this might be the invention of the reporter rather than the leading scientist - but where is his evidence that earthquakes are going to hit particular provinces? Does he use tea leaves or tarot cards for these predictions?)

the seas would rise by six metres.

No time frame is given for this prediction, but the article hints the time frame is ten years. The IPCC's mid-range prediction is for a 50cm rise by 2100. Twelve times lower over a 9 time longer period.

If this is the level of science espoused by one of the most distinguished scientists in Thailand, god help us!

[givenall]

Personally, I'd say its been uninhabitable for quite some time already.

Ok Ok what can i do for next seven years i want to have lots of fun:whistling:

[Thaddeus]

The earth is definitely warming.

My proof: 10,000 years ago, ice covered half the planet. Now, it doesn't.

Is it man made global warming? How many people were on the earth 10,000 years ago when the ice started melting?

It still makes sense to actively reduce pollution of any type and even start to cleanup. You don't have to be green, just sensible

Agree 100%, mankind does literally have to clean up its act, but give the right reasons, not some unprovable hog wash.

[Jdietz]

Wikipedia is infected by AGW lobbyists, and most articles related to climate change are vigorously re-edited, see the discussion pages. They are now finally in the process to throw out one or two of the most blatant saboteurs, but the damage is done.

Try http://www.wattsupwiththat.com for a fair-and-balanced (like Fox ) view. But better at least than the Wikipedia lobby.

Edited September 18, 2010 by Jdietz

[rubl]

At this moment lightning, thunder and heavy downpour. Maybe BKK uninhabitable sooner than 7 years ?

[bkkjames]

At this moment lightning, thunder and heavy downpour. Maybe BKK uninhabitable sooner than 7 years ?

No No mate, you are confused about the drought warning two months ago.

I guess with this news I will put off buying that 25 million baht grade b house in XYZ Housing Estate and just invest it in a nice boat. Always fancied a boat, no sinking fund required, if you don't like your neighbors you can just leave, free fishing, less traffic.....

[simon43]

As one can see from his academic qualifications, this man is entitled to put 'DIC' after his name.

Simon

[Xangsamhua]

Well, it certainly reads like a fairy story, all right.

There is a certain sort of person who needs to make themselves feel important and meaningful by pretending to have discovered the latest Oh No We're Doomed scenario, and this fellow fits the profile perfectly.

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

...

(huge list of achievements and pachydermic awards)

So this chap appears to be at the very top level of Thai scientific repute. Let's examine some of his claims:

(Nation report follows)

I wouldn't rely on a Nation journalist's report as a stick to beat Dr Art-ong with, but in any case my reference to his CV was in response to an unresearched suggestion that he was just trying to make himself important.

I don't know how reliable Dr Art-ong is on the life-expectancy of Bangkok as a habitable city. He's an engineer with a PhD from the University of London and was with NASA for a period of time, so I suspect he does consider evidence and is not just a doomsday crank (but he could be, I suppose).

The fact that he has a number of Royal awards with names that can be sniggered at eurocentrically as quaint oriental affectations does not actually diminish his credibility.

Perhaps his expectations of a Bangkokian inundation are eccentric, or overstated, though he's not the only one to have warned on this. Putting an imminent timeline to it may be a spur to the government and Bangkok authorities to get down to business on the matter. Dr Art-ong has status, and therefore clout in Thai leadership circles. My interest in him, however, is not for his geophysics, but for his humanist and holistic education philosophy and its implementation at his school in Lopburi.

Edited September 18, 2010 by Xangsamhua

[simon43]

This man worked on a single space project for NASA.

I spent 10 years working on numerous space projects for ESA (European Space Agency)

Given my background, I confidently predict that in 7 years, Bangkok will be overrun by ladyboys

Simon

PS - I am not attacking this man personally. I am simply questioning how his background qualifies him to make these statements

Edited September 18, 2010 by simon43

[prometheus]

Sir, I advice you check out this TED video before you make further comments

Well, it certainly reads like a fairy story, all right.

There is a certain sort of person who needs to make themselves feel important and meaningful by pretending to have discovered the latest Oh No We're Doomed scenario, and this fellow fits the profile perfectly.

Your response is uninformed, Rick. You may be skeptical of Dr Art-ong's views, but he doesn't need to make himself important.

This is his CV:

...

(huge list of achievements and pachydermic awards)

So this chap appears to be at the very top level of Thai scientific repute. Let's examine some of his claims:

Gulf of Thailand would be hit by tsunamis Ajong said humans were mainly to blame for such disasters

What? How can humans possibly cause earthquakes and tsunamis?

Ajong explained that over the past three decades the temperature has risen

Actually, over the last decade there has been little or no rise in global temperature.

earthquakes being of greater magnitude.

Where is the evidence of this, and how can humans be responsible for it?

Ajong said polar bears would be extinct in less than 10 years

Who believes this? The World Conservation Union for example has cited a "suspected population reduction of >30% within 45 years" - that is a huge difference from 'extinction in just ten years'. Many believe even this is too pessimistic, pointing out that the exact total population of polar bears is unknown, and some populations are increasing.

Earthquakes within the 6-Richter scale and severe flooding would hit provinces in the North

Just what is the '6-Richter' scale? (To be fair this might be the invention of the reporter rather than the leading scientist - but where is his evidence that earthquakes are going to hit particular provinces? Does he use tea leaves or tarot cards for these predictions?)

the seas would rise by six metres.

No time frame is given for this prediction, but the article hints the time frame is ten years. The IPCC's mid-range prediction is for a 50cm rise by 2100. Twelve times lower over a 9 time longer period.

If this is the level of science espoused by one of the most distinguished scientists in Thailand, god help us!

[Xangsamhua]

As one can see from his academic qualifications, this man is entitled to put 'DIC' after his name.

Simon

You're an attentive reader, Simon.

The Diploma of the Imperial College (DIC) is an academic certificate awarded by Imperial College London to its postgraduate students upon graduation. Until recently, Imperial was part of the University of London and Imperial College bestowed the University of London's degrees as well as its own diplomas. Now Imperial College degrees are awarded. Although the award may be studied for on its own, the DIC is typically jointly-awarded to students completing a University of London / Imperial College postgraduate course lasting for a year or more. (Wikipedia)

[prometheus]

you're an idiot, DIC stands for "Diploma of Imperial College

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diploma_of_Imperial_College

If you don't know Imperial College, I suspect you have not really worked in ESA.

As one can see from his academic qualifications, this man is entitled to put 'DIC' after his name.

Simon

[asiawatcher]

Bangkok does not have to fear too much about earthquakes as it is built on a mud flat which absorbs most of it.

Being a zero above sea level is an issue.

Global weather changes and FX are not all that it seems and tsunamis are not likely this side of the Andaman or in the South China Sea. If we are subject to Tsunamis here then you can write off nearly every surrounding country facing water of any description.

But rest assured if Bangkok keeps building and interrupting the substrata's as they are through pile driving, then there will be a venice of the East on future maps. Bangkok (and Thailand) needs to address the water drainage systems that are at seal level already and sinking which is exactly what causes the flooding - there is nowhere for the water to run.