How To Cope In Thailand While Losing Money Abroad

[bangkokburning]

I'm waiting for the Euro to blow up, the RMB to revalue and the SEA currencies to follow. QE3-4-5. If Thailand wants to stay competitive after RMB revalues - its looking at some scary propositions. By this time the THB will be way imbalanced to most western currencies and the only way I see them to bring this back in line is - QE and works projects. It clearly is against lifting capital controls, lowering interest rates will be a disaster unless it does it same as USA - lowers interest rates and disallows borrowing.

I'm looking to get out of my TIPS at the right moment and I am way to overweight in a small bank which I know well and is one of the best managed in the USA. I bought too soon, could have caught the stock lower, but I am OK sure. When the bank sells it will go for at least 50% of its current trading price. Wish I stayed in TIPS another few months and then made the move. I would be in a really good position.

I'm just looking to preserve equity.

I wouldn't touch gold or silver until after the crash. In fact, I would not be in the markets now and am not - at all. Full blown bubble-city and they are waiting for the moment to pull back and take the rest of what you have. Sell orders not executing as the prices plummet....its coming sure.

I should have bought RJA but thought it would pull back, it didn't.

OZ is so intertwined with China and therefore the USA. I see some real trade tensions. OZ can have some real setbacks not to mention its property markets and high interest rates.USA stops buying so China stops buying and down goes raw materials. Only hope is for China is Africa.

Edited November 22, 2010 by bangkokburning

[Loz]

For those of you confused by the above I have a friend who you could trust to handle your finances responsibly...

How could you not trust that face, honestly!

Thanks to all the contributors on this thread. Quite a few new ideas to think about there.

To through a little western perspective on making finacial decisions I think you might enjoy this compilation:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0EC14YP4gA&feature=related

[cardholder]

In this I am probably what you would call ultra-conservative.

I dont have a terrible lot to play with and dont want to get into shares, property or other speculation.

I keep what little I have in term deposits with banks and a couple of safe finance companies (govt guaranteed).

I live on the interest and a small pension.

It can be said that my interest will buy less each year but I find I can live easily on less than the income I get from these two.

That means I can increase me deposits every year or two and hopefully this means my principal and interest increase at more than the rate of inflation

Worked for me so far, but who knows in the future.

Also in the position where the NZ $ is moving up against the Baht and that sure helps.

A prudent approach.

So what is the game plan - who are you planning to leave it to when you have gone ?

Personally, I have a capital depletion strategy in place.

(this plan was accelerated by the global recession and I can no longer afford to live to age 92)

Edited November 22, 2010 by cardholder

[Loz]

In this I am probably what you would call ultra-conservative.

I dont have a terrible lot to play with and dont want to get into shares, property or other speculation.

I keep what little I have in term deposits with banks and a couple of safe finance companies (govt guaranteed).

I live on the interest and a small pension.

It can be said that my interest will buy less each year but I find I can live easily on less than the income I get from these two.

That means I can increase me deposits every year or two and hopefully this means my principal and interest increase at more than the rate of inflation

Worked for me so far, but who knows in the future.

Also in the position where the NZ $ is moving up against the Baht and that sure helps.

A prudent approach.

So what is the game plan - who are you planning to leave it to when you have gone ?

Personally, I have a capital depletion strategy in place.

(this plan was accelerated by the global recession and I can no longer afford to live to age 92)

Spend your last hundred baht on 10 strips of Tylenol 500mg... Sorted.

[JurgenG]

Why nobody here mentioned real estate ?

They provide steady income through rental and if you need suddenly a large amount of cash, you just sell one flat.

It's better to start young but if you have 4-5 flats that you own and rent, you don't have too much to worry about your future. Flat no house, houses are too much maintenance

[Loz]

Jurg,

Have you been reading the thread? I saw mention of real estate. But in amongst a lot of other good stuff.

London is at a 20 year low for building. I think most people want to look elsewhere... When I think of property I am reminded of the pain it has caused me, more than the pleasure.

[rgs2001uk]

Why nobody here mentioned real estate ?

They provide steady income through rental and if you need suddenly a large amount of cash, you just sell one flat.

It's better to start young but if you have 4-5 flats that you own and rent, you don't have too much to worry about your future. Flat no house, houses are too much maintenance

"if you need suddenly a large amount of cash, you just sell one flat"

If only it was as easy has you make it out to be, would that be selling in a buyer or sellers market?

[ExpatJ]

Why nobody here mentioned real estate ?

They provide steady income through rental and if you need suddenly a large amount of cash, you just sell one flat.

It's better to start young but if you have 4-5 flats that you own and rent, you don't have too much to worry about your future. Flat no house, houses are too much maintenance

Agree- this is also my plan to try and have 5 or so condos in my mid to late 50s- bought with no mortgages - (Bangkok, Jakarta, possibly singapore ) and rent them all out- then semi -retire....

[craigt3365]

Why nobody here mentioned real estate ?

They provide steady income through rental and if you need suddenly a large amount of cash, you just sell one flat.

It's better to start young but if you have 4-5 flats that you own and rent, you don't have too much to worry about your future. Flat no house, houses are too much maintenance

Agree- this is also my plan to try and have 5 or so condos in my mid to late 50s- bought with no mortgages - (Bangkok, Jakarta, possibly singapore ) and rent them all out- then semi -retire....

Exactly what my Thai neighbor has done. He owns about 4 condos and 4 houses. Just built a new house. Lives off his rent and a small retirement from his former employer. He's 48 and fully retired. He also dabbles in the Thai market, which is what he use to do full time at the bank. Smart guy...

[bonobo]

I am a firm believer that most people are just not qualified to make prudent decisions as far as investments. The intricacies in the global economy are just too detailed for anyone to really grasp them all. So funds are the way to go. Choose sectors, then let fund managers manage. you may not hit a home run, but you probably won't lose out as well.

Having written that, yes, I do own stocks and property. I can't help it. It is more fun than funds. I have limited assets in Thailand, the US, China, Vietnam, Chile, Mexico, Estonia, Gabon, South Africa, Russia, Korea, the UK, Austria, the Ukraine, Costa Rica, and Turkey. But if I was smarter, I would just go the fund route. (My major holdings are in the US, Thailand, and Chile.)

[cardholder]

I am a firm believer that most people are just not qualified to make prudent decisions as far as investments. The intricacies in the global economy are just too detailed for anyone to really grasp them all. So funds are the way to go. Choose sectors, then let fund managers manage. you may not hit a home run, but you probably won't lose out as well.

Having written that, yes, I do own stocks and property. I can't help it. It is more fun than funds. I have limited assets in Thailand, the US, China, Vietnam, Chile, Mexico, Estonia, Gabon, South Africa, Russia, Korea, the UK, Austria, the Ukraine, Costa Rica, and Turkey. But if I was smarter, I would just go the fund route. (My major holdings are in the US, Thailand, and Chile.)

If I had major holdings, I wouldn't be arsing about on this forum.

[Naam]

GuestHouse: A fine example off eggs and baskets from Naam.

in my [not so] humble view there are three major possibilities to invest in currencies.

1. become a daytrader and when you have some success post (boast) in Thaivisa "yesterday i made x-pips in y-time".

2. do a little homework on currencies, then diversify, spread your risk and still achieve a satisfactory yield. monitor those currencies and keep them on short maturities to pay only a small fee when dropping one in favour of another one.

3. select a currency with high interest rates and block your cash for 99 years because that will give you most bang for the buck. should inflation hit 10% and your yield is 5%, call it karma, kismet or fate. should the currency drop vs. your "expense"-currency revert to the afore-said and call it karma, kismet, fate, open a thread in Thaivisa and complain about the Bank of Thailand which manipulates the value of Thai Baht. don't forget to add that any time from now the Baht will drop into the abyss and refer to 1997/98 as history repeats itself.

1. =

2. =

3. =

Edited November 22, 2010 by Naam

[fletchsmile]

i am getting 0.375% p.a. on a Swiss Franc deposit, maturity 30 days. other interest rates (same maturities) on cash are presently (my case):

TRY 6.150%

ZAR 7.125%

BRL 8.375% (via non deliverable 1Y forward)

SGD 0.478%

NZD 3.875%

AUD 4.630%

THB 0.450%

NOK 1.150%

€UR 0.250%

USD 0.185%

JP¥ 0.000%

Wot - No GBP my Klingon friend

I thought you'd also have some CNY or CNH tucked away somewhere in there too.

To be fair in addition to tenor, some indication of amount ranges may be useful, although I'd understand the need for some discretion

With the exception of THB, looks like you have some good offerings there.

[Heng]

We're diverting more resources to our import operations. Pretty basic.

[JurgenG]

Again the same question, how much you "active tradesr" are you making a year (in %) and how much do you invest ?

My total investment is around 30M Bahts, it pays around 15% a year. Half is invested in real estate, the remaining in funds. The only thing I do is check every month that the rents are paid.

Should I change my strategy ?

[Birdman]

yes, because that has nothing at all in common with the OP.

[GuestHouse]

I'm waiting for the Euro to blow up, the RMB to revalue and the SEA currencies to follow. QE3-4-5.

Q-5 sounds interesting, could you give more information on when exactly that is?!

[GuestHouse]

Again the same question, how much you "active tradesr" are you making a year (in %) and how much do you invest ?

My total investment is around 30M Bahts, it pays around 15% a year. Half is invested in real estate, the remaining in funds. The only thing I do is check every month that the rents are paid.

Should I change my strategy ?

You've got Bht30M invested - Half in real estate and during a period of the most volatile markets/collapsing real estate values and mass unemployment we've seen for a generation or more - The only thing you do is check once a month to see that the rents are paid.

Hats off to you - You've got more nerve than anyone I know.

But the internet is a wonderful place where strange things can come true.

If we can get clarification on how to get into Bangkokburning's Q-5 thing there might be scope to raise your returns above 15%. An opertunity not to be passed up on ... me thinks.

[Naam]

Wot - No GBP my Klingon friend

I thought you'd also have some CNY or CNH tucked away somewhere in there too.

To be fair in addition to tenor, some indication of amount ranges may be useful, although I'd understand the need for some discretion

With the exception of THB, looks like you have some good offerings there.

-CNY in bigger than homeopathic doses are only available in form of NDFs which provide in my [not so] humble opinion unsatisfactory yields. besides that shortcoming i am not convinced (as opposed to a lot of experts) that CNY will go up like a rocket any time from now.

-GBP was my favourite for many years in another life when UK treasuries yielded 13-15% (end 70s, beginning of 80s).

-a currency with the code "CNH"?

-amount ranges are minimum six digit USD values. a few of them high six digits (AUD, BRL, TRY and ZAR); i don't hold any cash USD and EUR, interest rates quoted for information only.

[Naam]

^ And what is your forecast on the Latvian Lats ?

Anyway that's my thinking and where my money is.

And every month when I check my statement I'm happy with my choice.

I sincerely hope you're happy with your investment too

you seem to keep most of your money with the semi-bankrupt Parex Banka, right? good luck to you!

[GreenSnapper]

I am a firm believer that most people are just not qualified to make prudent decisions as far as investments.  The intricacies in the global economy are just too detailed for anyone to really grasp them all.  So funds are the way to go.  Choose sectors, then let fund managers manage.  you may not hit a home run, but you probably won't lose out as well.

Bad advice.

Over 90% of all funds can't even beat the corresponding index. But you still pay management fees, issuing fees and other costs.

I don't own Thai stocks and don't invest in any Thai stocks fund. Instead, I invest in the SET50 index, which in the past gave me good returns from the raising Thai stock market AND from the rising Thai Baht.

And no funds manager eats my hard earned cash.

[Naam]

Those are excellent interest numbers. Are they available somewhere close to Thailand? Say Singapore? Because I can't find anyone in Singapore who will give me any interest on THB or CHF. I would assume they are from a trading account. Can one just leave money in a brokerage account and not trade?

-rates = Singapore

-brokerage account = have no idea what you mean

[mark45y]

Those are excellent interest numbers. Are they available somewhere close to Thailand? Say Singapore? Because I can't find anyone in Singapore who will give me any interest on THB or CHF. I would assume they are from a trading account. Can one just leave money in a brokerage account and not trade?

-rates = Singapore

-brokerage account = have no idea what you mean

Brokerage account, Trading account. Example, Schwab Brokerage Accounts.

[JurgenG]

Again the same question, how much you "active tradesr" are you making a year (in %) and how much do you invest ?

My total investment is around 30M Bahts, it pays around 15% a year. Half is invested in real estate, the remaining in funds. The only thing I do is check every month that the rents are paid.

Should I change my strategy ?

You've got Bht30M invested - Half in real estate and during a period of the most volatile markets/collapsing real estate values and mass unemployment we've seen for a generation or more - The only thing you do is check once a month to see that the rents are paid.

Hats off to you - You've got more nerve than anyone I know.

what else can I do ? The property market goes down 5% so I sell everything ?

Just for one flat I have, on the money invested,( only 30% of the property value !) ,the rental bring me a return of around 11%. The property by itself, has gained a bit more than 10% over the past 3 years. But because I paid (invested) only 30% of the property value, the return on my investment is more than 30% over this 3 years period. On top of the gain from the rental of course.

For the money invested in funds, after losing a bit of money during the crisis, I moved to an aggressive position in funds invested in China and I more than erase the lost made previously, I'm in very positive territory actually.

The problem is I check my balance only once a month ? Nassim Nicholas Taleb has written very good books on money management and according to him, that's the right thing to do.

And it works for me ....

[fletchsmile]

Wot - No GBP my Klingon friend

I thought you'd also have some CNY or CNH tucked away somewhere in there too.

To be fair in addition to tenor, some indication of amount ranges may be useful, although I'd understand the need for some discretion

With the exception of THB, looks like you have some good offerings there.

-CNY in bigger than homeopathic doses are only available in form of NDFs which provide in my [not so] humble opinion unsatisfactory yields. besides that shortcoming i am not convinced (as opposed to a lot of experts) that CNY will go up like a rocket any time from now.

...

-a currency with the code "CNH"?

...

Come on now Naam, wake up and smell the coffee - instead of staring into it with your emocions

A quick google of "CNH currency" together with perhaps HK, Shanghai, and you'll find that offshore options in CNY have widened in the last year or so... indeed there's even a connection between your two comments...

[cardholder]

what else can I do ? The property market goes down 5% so I sell everything ?

Just for one flat I have, on the money invested,( only 30% of the property value !) ,the rental bring me a return of around 11%. The property by itself, has gained a bit more than 10% over the past 3 years. But because I paid (invested) only 30% of the property value, the return on my investment is more than 30% over this 3 years period. On top of the gain from the rental of course.

So, presumably you have Buy to Let mortgages of 70% (originally) on this property ? That being the case, is the 11% return after funding costs ?

[JurgenG]

what else can I do ? The property market goes down 5% so I sell everything ?

Just for one flat I have, on the money invested,( only 30% of the property value !) ,the rental bring me a return of around 11%. The property by itself, has gained a bit more than 10% over the past 3 years. But because I paid (invested) only 30% of the property value, the return on my investment is more than 30% over this 3 years period. On top of the gain from the rental of course.

So, presumably you have Buy to Let mortgages of 70% (originally) on this property ? That being the case, is the 11% return after funding costs ?

I'm not so familiar with this vocabulary, english is not my mother tongue.

To make it simple , flat cost 1M, I pay a downpayment of 30%, $300,000, mortgage for the balance.

Basically my investment is 300,000 and all gains are calculated against this amount.

When I calculate the return for the rental, I deduct of course the interest for the mortgage

Same if the price of the flat increases 10% over 3 years, which means 100,000. My gain is not 10% because what I invested was only 300,000, my gain is 33% :)

[Naam]

Those are excellent interest numbers. Are they available somewhere close to Thailand? Say Singapore? Because I can't find anyone in Singapore who will give me any interest on THB or CHF. I would assume they are from a trading account. Can one just leave money in a brokerage account and not trade?

-rates = Singapore

-brokerage account = have no idea what you mean

Brokerage account, Trading account. Example, Schwab Brokerage Accounts.

i know what a brokerage account is but never got close to these kind of obsceneties what i don't understand is "leave money in a brokerage account without trading".

[Naam]

Come on now Naam, wake up and smell the coffee - instead of staring into it with your emocions

A quick google of "CNH currency" together with perhaps HK, Shanghai, and you'll find that offshore options in CNY have widened in the last year or so... indeed there's even a connection between your two comments...

i took a look at "CNH" (the info you sent) and concluded after a few minutes that CNH is not meant for my father's first born son.

reason: any investment which i don't understand within 90 seconds is a 'no-no' for me. :jap:

[ChiangMaiFun]

In this I am probably what you would call ultra-conservative.

I dont have a terrible lot to play with and dont want to get into shares, property or other speculation.

I keep what little I have in term deposits with banks and a couple of safe finance companies (govt guaranteed).

I live on the interest and a small pension.

It can be said that my interest will buy less each year but I find I can live easily on less than the income I get from these two.

That means I can increase me deposits every year or two and hopefully this means my principal and interest increase at more than the rate of inflation

Worked for me so far, but who knows in the future.

Also in the position where the NZ $ is moving up against the Baht and that sure helps.

Sensible I'd say... live life and be happy - I do much the same