Thailand Tourism To See Drop Of 10-15 Percent This Year

[webfact]

Tourism to see drop of 10-15%

By SUCHAT SRITAMA

THE NATION

The tourism business is expected to record a drop of 10-15 percent this year mainly due to the political turbulence midyear, but the future appears bright for 2011.

Prakit Chinamourphong, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA), said overall tourism should record a drop of 10-15 per cent both in the number of tourists and revenue compared with last year.

"The political problems … were the key factors in the drop," he said.

Tourism in the first quarter saw very high growth, but sharply dropped after the political crisis in May when red-shirt protesters damaged several public sites. The business had recovered by the third quarter, before plunging again in October because of heavy flooding in many provinces.

Prakit said tourism revenue also dropped as hotel operators cut room rates and offered packages to lure customers back.

He said the number of foreign visitors should resume a high growth rate in the coming year if there is no political tension. Many tourists are expected to return to the Kingdom, especially from Japan, China and Russia, after cancelling trips planned for this year.

Moreover, many tourism operators signed contracts with foreign firms at the World Travel Mart held in London recently.

Apichart Sankry, adviser to the Association of Thai Travel Agents, said tourism would grow significantly if there were no further political chaos.

This year, ATTA forecast that total arrivals would be 12 million, lower than the official target of 14.5 million.

"ATTA agrees with THA that tourists will return to Thailand next year," he said.

According to THA and ATTA, more international travellers will head directly to Phuket, as many airlines have started direct flights to the island. As a result of that move, the number of tourists visiting Bangkok will see flat growth.

In a separate matter, Informa Yacht Group and the Thailand Convention and Exhibition Bureau plan to host Asia 's largest boat show from January 6-9 in Phuket.

The Phuket International Boat Show (PIMEX) is expected to help boost in-water business in the country, particularly in Phuket. The event is the largest marine show in the region, with record sales and visitor numbers for eight consecutive years.

For the past two years, the marine leisure industry has generated revenue exceeding Bt8 billion for Phuket.

Andy Dowden, director of Informa Yacht Group, said it aimed for more than Bt1 billion in sales at next year's event.

Global brands, brokers and marine service providers will join local builders in Phuket to showcase boats ranging from 6 metres to more than 30 - day boats, luxury cruisers and yachts, both power and sail. Meanwhile, three luxury international automobile brands, Jaguar, Lexus and Land Rover, will exhibit onshore.

Last year's PIMEX hosted more than 85 companies and featured 34 yachts in-water. The 2011 show expects 6,000 participants over four days, including more than 2,000 trade visitors.

-- The Nation 2010-12-01

[LaoPo]

Tourism to see drop of 10-15%...?

I predict at least 20% drop over 2010.

But: that's not too difficult when one reads:

"This year, ATTA forecast that total arrivals would be 12 million, lower than the official target of 14.5 million."

since that's already a drop of 17.5%

LaoPo

[Peterphuket]

"The political problems … were the key factors in the drop," he said

I think, when you get 38 Bath for 1 Euro, it's also a good reason not to go. Plus a high inflation rate, Thailand wil be more and more expensive.

[Octavian]

With the appreciation of the baht and the deline in the value of other currencies, this becomes a more expensive place to vacation or to shop if you do come here.

[givenall]

Tourism is up this year, umm Tourism is down this year, up again, may be down again, I DON’T KNOW …….

[asiawatcher]

The truth at last and not from the garbage spewed from MCOT and TAT. Well done Khun Prakit Chinamourphong.

[bushwacker]

<"The tourism business is expected to record a drop of 10-15 percent this year mainly due to the political turbulence midyear, but the future appears bright for 2011.">

The future appears bright because there are no political problems, no flooding, and no additional scams planned for 2011. Hahahahaha hihihihihihi :jap:

[Ricardo]

But didn't the THA recently blame dodgy Guest-Houses, & non-member hotels, for their current drop in business ? Doing unfair things like charging what the market is willing to pay, or using the internet for advertising & booking, amongst other things ?

I agree that tourism is going to be down, poor old TAT gets it wrong again, but think that there are a number of reasons contributing ... the global-economy, the exchange-rate, higher air-travel taxes in the EEC, unrealistic-pricing & a scruffy image for the destination as-a-whole. No quick fixes, I'm afraid.

[Bagwan]

The truth at last and not from the garbage spewed from MCOT and TAT.  Well done Khun Prakit Chinamourphong.

If not the truth then something approaching it. I suggest that Khun Prakit is putting the best possible construction on his forecast. 

[feelthelove]

Phuket must be down at least 50% right now.. Too many jet ski scammers and this is spreading to Pattaya, Hau Hin and alike. The reality is that the thais are putting up prices and increasing tactics for how to part you from your hard earned.. I feel that people should and will vote with their feet, let alone all the other varables taken into consideration.

Thailand will have more Indian, chinese, russian, south korean travellers but do they spend like western farang? NO NO NO ... Kinyao.. Russians excluded from that last comment of course.

[kuffki]

LOL, and here we go again. Just last week tourism was on the up, now its all down hill.

Just one thing i am little confused about, 10-15% drop from what figures?

Now they saying 12 million, but previously they said just around 11 million.

Does the TAT do not know the actual real figures????

Mind you just about 2-3 years ago the drop was from 16 million to 13 million, now they are saying target was 14.5 million but only got 12 million. I do recall them saying 30% drop in tourists

If i have not confused someone yet, i sure am confused.

[laocowboy2]

The truth at last and not from the garbage spewed from MCOT and TAT. Well done Khun Prakit Chinamourphong.

Agree. We all read the earler "whistling in the wind" statements saying (a) things were not thet bad and ( would be much better in the high season. As usual, this was ****. Denying that a problem exists is rarely a useful first step in solving it.

I too believe that rising prices are as much of a contributory factor as the unrest - never mind the economic stress in Europe. One of the factors at work here is the fact that whenever the THB weakens, businesses seek to pass on the added costs of imported inputs but coversely when the THB strengthens (as now) the lower cost of imported inputs go into margins rather than being passed on the consumers.

In most countries, a strengthening currency serves as a brake on inflation but sadly not in Thailand.

[TackyToo]

Tourism to see drop of 10-15%...?

I predict at least 20% drop over 2010.

But: that's not too difficult when one reads:

"This year, ATTA forecast that total arrivals would be 12 million, lower than the official target of 14.5 million."

since that's already a drop of 17.5%

LaoPo

What a shame. You still stick to the farrang way of math? The engraving on any associations abacus here clearly states: "If you can't convince them - confuse them!"

[virtualtraveller]

It's a bit of a hollow statistic really. Tourist numbers are meaningless, it's the actual tourist spend, and even then you have to put it into perspective.

1. The political troubles may have resulted in a dead May and June for tourism but come on guys, stop blaming everything on this, it was the low season and 6 months ago.

2. The world is actually recovering from one of its worse recessions in recent memory, travel is a luxury item

3. The baht is at its strongest in 15 years, this is the NUMBER 1 reason, US/UK/Euro travellers are spending the same amount of $/£/E perhaps less but it's a lot less baht.

4. Many businesses have priced their product out the market as a result, consider that 150 baht in a Phuket bar and that's £3 - more than you would pay in your local pub perhaps

5. Tourist numbers are quite down from these countries, which might hurt if you are a British styled pub or dive shop, but lots more Chinese, Russian and Indian tourist - go open a shar fin soup restaurant

6. Travel numbers are down everywhere thanks to belt tightening in those countries where most our tourists come from

7. TAT has, for years, been setting rather bold targets for tourist number growth without considering the ups and downs of health and security and financial risks

Given the rampant development, oversupply of hotels in some places and general wreaking of the environment from unsustainable tourism growth, a few lean years isn't such a bad thing, let all those half baked businesses, copy-cats without any unique marketing strategies, and greedy developers suffer.

Presently tourist accounts for about 8% of the country's economy, Thailand is among the top 20 visited tourist countries in the world, it's getting overcooked and dangerous to continually depend on unrealistic growth.

[007]

Does the TAT do not know the actual real figures????

Until a few years ago they did actually publish the monthly tourist arrivals on the TAT webpage. For some reason they stopped doing this; maybe due to lack of IT staff...

[007]

It's a bit of a hollow statistic really. Tourist numbers are meaningless, it's the actual tourist spend, and even then you have to put it into perspective.

True. Years ago there were more tourists from Japan, the US, Switzerland, etc. Nowadays there are more quality tourists

from India, Bangladesh and Russia, who count the water bottles... Well done, Thailand!!

[gemini81]

LOL, and here we go again. Just last week tourism was on the up, now its all down hill.

Just one thing i am little confused about, 10-15% drop from what figures?

Now they saying 12 million, but previously they said just around 11 million.

Does the TAT do not know the actual real figures????

Mind you just about 2-3 years ago the drop was from 16 million to 13 million, now they are saying target was 14.5 million but only got 12 million. I do recall them saying 30% drop in tourists

If i have not confused someone yet, i sure am confused.

I think they don't really know, but they think the results are gonna suck in so many words!

Haha, yeah their math and economic prediction skills are pretty lacking.

[dom samui]

The Eiffel Tower got 7 000 000 tourists last year.........opposite 12 or even 14 for this whole country.....

[MaiChai]

The reality is that the world is in recession, the Thai Baht is strong, Thailand is no longer a cheap destination, and Thailand is probably a little too developed now as a tourist destination. People have short memories when it comes to the political disturbances, so I suspect most foreigners have forgotten about this and less of a factor. Indonesia/Phillipines/Vietnam are cheaper, less developed and more interesting?

Probably the clever thing to do is develop tourism for countries closer to Thailand. Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Korea, China, etc. Europe/American are suffering the world recession the most and the airfare from Europe/America is expensive. Do Asian tourists spend as much as Westerners?

If the Thai Government keep hiking the tax on alcohol, this will make Thailand less of a party place, which will ultimately affect tourism. Not sure if the government see it this way. Its forcing alot of people to drink cheaper alcohol, which is not the desired affect and may lead to further health problems in the future?

Edited December 1, 2010 by MaiChai

[LaoPo]

Phuket must be down at least 50% right now.. Too many jet ski scammers and this is spreading to Pattaya, Hau Hin and alike. The reality is that the thais are putting up prices and increasing tactics for how to part you from your hard earned.. I feel that people should and will vote with their feet, let alone all the other varables taken into consideration.

Thailand will have more Indian, chinese, russian, south korean travellers but do they spend like western farang? NO NO NO ... Kinyao.. Russians excluded from that last comment of course.

That's a misconception; Western European tourists stay longer than the Asian tourist but the latter spend more per day.

There are statistics about that but you have to search for yourself.

Edit:

..but I have a good heart

http://www.tourism.g.../home/index.php

But, I have to warn for the complicated way the Thailand Bureau of Tourism (not the TAT, since they don;t publish the numbers and statistics anymore) publish their info; it's a nightmare since you have to download every single month apart.

TIT ......to make it complicated for the viewers but I'm sure they have the total numbers available in a split second themselves

Transparency and Thailand.....

LaoPo

Edited December 1, 2010 by LaoPo

[LaoPo]

The reality is that the world is in recession, the Thai Baht is strong, Thailand is no longer a cheap destination, and Thailand is probably a little too developed now as a tourist destination. People have short memories when it comes to the political disturbances, so I suspect most foreigners have forgotten about this and less of a factor. Indonesia/Phillipines/Vietnam are cheaper, less developed and more interesting?

Probably the clever thing to do is develop tourism for countries closer to Thailand. Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Korea, China, etc. Europe/American are suffering the world recession the most and the airfare from Europe/America is expensive. Do Asian tourists spend as much as Westerners?

If the Thai Government keep hiking the tax on alcohol, this will make Thailand less of a party place, which will ultimately affect tourism. Not sure if the government see it this way. Its forcing alot of people to drink cheaper alcohol, which is not the desired affect and may lead to further health problems in the future?

answered here:

LaoPo

[mythBuster]

The outlook is always good in Thailand. Except than that the army will start shooting people in the streets again when Songkran arrives, just like in 2009 and 2010. Why? Well because nothing has happened again with it comes to reconciliation. I bet that when protestors become angry Abhisit come up with the same old bullshit again. We will strive towards reconciliation. No speech writer needed. just take the old speeches and changes the date.

[w11guy]

The Eiffel Tower got 7 000 000 tourists last year.........opposite 12 or even 14 for this whole country.....

That's not surprising given that France is the No.1 tourist destination and Paris is the No. 1 in France.

[Thai at Heart]

The Eiffel Tower got 7 000 000 tourists last year.........opposite 12 or even 14 for this whole country.....

That's not surprising given that France is the No.1 tourist destination and Paris is the No. 1 in France.

It might be to the TAT. They seem to be fighting over 100k arrivals these days.

http://www.asiatraveltips.com/news10/83-SingaporeTourism.shtml

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1558269.php/Singapore-tourist-arrivals-increase-20-per-cent-in-April

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1558269.php/Singapore-tourist-arrivals-increase-20-per-cent-in-April

The Singapore Tourism Board is targeting 11.5 – 12.5 million visitor arrivals and Sin$17.5 – Sin$18.5 billion in tourism receipts for 2010.

And having been there last week, they aren't paying 1000 baht a night.

This is a place with a population about the size of the first 20 sois of Sukhumvit.

The industry can't even get reliable figures for where their visitors came from (even including all the dodgy entries). So how can they even attempt to plan an industry around it. 30%+ down in the major Thai destinations. Pure and simple

Edited December 1, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[BigBikeBKK]

I think it's wonderful news!

[Sydebolle]

...... and Malaysia sails through with 26 million tourists this year. The mind boggles! But until the local yocals have not understood, that a tourist is not a perpetual cow to be milked, the mess at the airport's arrival floor with all those ghost guides and illegal taxis charging upto THB 5'000 to Pattaya.....

Another interesting fact is, that while the THB has appreciated a lot, prices for imported stuff did INcrease. Visit Thailand while you can, in a generation from now the country will be torn to pieces, nobody wants to work, everybody gets cheated and the human resources are simply not being prepared hence people will travel elsewhere!

[LaoPo]

...... and Malaysia sails through with 26 million tourists this year. The mind boggles!

To be fair in comparison with Thailand...the number of 26 million in Malaysia is totally blurred because Malaysia counts ALL travellers from Singapore as tourists, over and over again and those numbers runs into the many millions.

Individuals and/or guestworkers working in Singapore, but living in Malasyaia, are counted in that number of 26 million as well; it adds up....

The same but to a lesser scale with the Malaysian visitors to Thailand, some 1,5 million on a yearly basis.

LaoPo

Edited December 1, 2010 by LaoPo

[jsflynn603]

Look at usdebtclock.org and see 1+ million house foreclosures, and 1.5 million bankruptcies in America this year already....

The politics, I think, is not as much an issue as it was, it's a simple matter of so many around the world are hurting...

I wanted to take a TESOL course in Chiang mai, last years price was US$1200, this year it's US$1500, and from exchange parity alone, my costs would increase by about 9% while I visited Thailand. These things don't prevent everyone from traveling, but it does to a certain %. So many have lost their jobs...

I fear that tourism will not fully recover for many many years.

The two-tiered crazy fees at national parks do not help either (especially when farang can read thai numbers), nor does automatically raising cost of rents simply because "high season" is here. Well, it might be here, but that's no way to encourage people to come. Thais tourist accommodations do not seem to know how to adjust to difficult times, oh well. What is better, 20% reduced rates and full occupancy, or "high season" rates, and 40% occupancy?

[rubl]

The outlook is always good in Thailand. Except than that the army will start shooting people in the streets again when Songkran arrives, just like in 2009 and 2010. Why? Well because nothing has happened again with it comes to reconciliation. I bet that when protestors become angry Abhisit come up with the same old bullshit again. We will strive towards reconciliation. No speech writer needed. just take the old speeches and changes the date.

The outlook is always rosy, with 'peaceful' protesters ruining two consecutive Songkhran festivals in Bangkok. The storming of the ASIAN venue a year ago is also still fresh in peoples mind. At least some side seem to have run out of grenades, thank God. Recent protests have been really peaceful, lets hope we can keep it that way.

Edited December 2, 2010 by rubl

[BCP]

My link

The charts at the bottom of this link give the numbers since 1998. The raw numbers look to have bounced back pretty well from SARS and the Tsunami.Is there any reason they won't bounce back from all of this year's political turmoil?.. But break the figures down further and there has been a considerable change in who is visiting Thailand. Japan and Malasia between them make up over half the number now and Malays usually visit only for a few days and don't spend much at all. Thailand has chased away the Europeans who stay longer and spend more money in favour of the asians who don't. Well done TAT.

Edited December 2, 2010 by BCP