Thai Democrats Main Threat Gone

[webfact]

POLITICS

Democrats' main threat gone

By Kittipong Thavevong

The Nation

The ruling Democrat Party's outlook now appears to be bright for the rest of the government's time in office after the Constitution Court yesterday rejected the second dissolution case against it - and the last major headache for the party.

The court voted 4-3 to dismiss the second dissolution case against the country's oldest political party, in which it was accused of obtaining Bt258 million from an undeclared political donation. The majority of judges ruled that the Election Commission had failed to follow the legal process properly in bringing the case to court.

That was a double delight for the Democrats, who had just been spared by the same court in the first dissolution case on November 29, with a vote of 4-2 to reject the allegations of misusing Bt29 million in a state campaign fund obtained from the EC.

With the largest storm in the party's recent history now over, other remaining threats seem insignificant for the Democrat Party and the government that it leads. These include former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's trip to the United States to talk about alleged human-rights violations by the Thai government; a censure debate against the entire Cabinet; disputes within the ruling party and the coalition about constitutional amendments; and the red shirts' imminent street demonstration and the yellow shirts' rally next month.

Thaksin received an invitation late last month from the US government's Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) to address questions on human rights in Thailand, particularly involving the military-led crackdown on red-shirt protesters this year.

About 90 people were killed and 2,000 others were injured during the political turmoil in April and May. Many of the victims were soldiers, police and bystanders, in addition to protesters. The unrest led to riots and arson attacks on many buildings in Bangkok and government offices in some Northeastern provinces.

Thaksin is scheduled to deliver a 10-minute speech before the US panel on December 16 next Thursday. However, it remained unclear yesterday whether he would be able to obtain a visa to enter the United States. He was going to travel on a Montenegrin passport and he was still waiting for a visa, according to his legal adviser Noppadon Pattama. If he finds himself without a visa, the ex-prime minister might provide information to the US panel through other channels or address the commission through teleconferencing, Noppadon said.

Many Thai government officials are convinced the US authorities are unlikely to give Thaksin an entry visa because he faces corruption charges and is escaping legal action at home.

Another threat for the Democrat-led coalition government is a no-confidence motion by the opposition Pheu Thai Party after the new parliamentary session begins in late January. The opposition is expected to target the entire Cabinet, a strategy aimed at weakening coalition support, as the Constitution prohibits government ministers from voting in Parliament on matters involving their personal benefit. So all Cabinet members who are MPs will be unable to vote during the censure debate.

Differences among the Democrat and other coalition parties regarding issues for charter changes could also pose a threat to the government's stability. Some senior Democrat figures showed their discontent at the current leadership's change of heart in backing constitutional amendments. Some members of coalition parties also disagree about some details of the proposed changes, particularly the numbers of constituency and party-list MPs. However, this issue is unlikely to expand to the extent that it could threaten the government's survival.

The coalition's two largest partners - the Democrat and Bhum Jai Thai parties - have shown disagreement about government policies from time to time, but observers agree the politicians in power will stay united at least until Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dissolves the House of Representatives and calls a new general election some time next year.

Abhisit earlier said he would call for House dissolution after completion of constitutional amendments early next year. However, Suthep Thaugsuban, the Democrat secretary-general and deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs, reportedly wanted him to do so later than that.

Separate street protests by the rival political colours - the red shirts and the yellow shirts - were earlier seen as a big threat for the Democrats as well as the government. It would be the first time the rival groups both campaigned against the same government.

However, if their recent street gatherings are any indication, the red shirts will not go all out and campaign violently again ahead of the general election. Their 10-week rally in a bid to bring down the government from March to May did not succeed but instead resulted in a severely negative image for the movement, and its ally the opposition Pheu Thai Party is also suffering from the fall-out.

Judging from its recent moves, Pheu Thai would prefer to look ahead for an early election, rather than seeing the Democrats staying in power longer. The prime minister has said he would not call an election if there were the prospect of violence.

A Democrat Party spokesman said yesterday that Abhisit would next Friday announce a government policy to help boost the welfare of people with small incomes.

The yellow shirts recently postponed their "major rally" until late January against the government's policy on the Cambodian border, particularly regarding the disputed territory adjacent to the ancient Preah Vihear Temple. Earlier, street gatherings by the yellow shirts' umbrella group, the People's Alliance for Democracy, attracted less-than-expected participation, despite calls from the PAD's key leaders.

Moreover, a government plan to lift the state of emergency in Bangkok and adjacent provinces is another indicator that security threats are no longer strong. The prime minister said, "The overall situation has improved."

-- The Nation 2010-12-10

[givenall]

No no reason for election

[SomTumTiger]

I can't see any reason to have an election, until the term expires. The country deserves some stability - instead of Red shirt yellow shirt bullsh$t. Both of them appear to have lost a lot of steam. Thai people are just tired of all of them.

[jayjay0]

Yes there main Threat is gone.

That how ever leaves them with ignorance of what democracy is as it was formulated here in Thailand. Granted not always practiced.

It is such ignorance as this that allows for people who have a agenda that has nothing to do with the welfare of Thailand to take root.

Notice the failed coup Thaksin mounted last spring. It was the primary weapon in his tool box. That along with the money he had stolen from Thailand allowed him to create a hoard of terrorists.

It must be stamped out for the good of the government (all though I fear there is not enough time but they can start) and the future governments.

[Bagwan]

It seems that the Election Commission is staffed by orang-utans  - or was this all a game of 'Spot my deliberate mistake"? Time for a game of 'Musical Managers'? Sorry Somjai, but you are the sacrificial goat. Welcome to the army of holders of vacant posts.

I welcome the end result but do wonder about the means by which it was arrived at.

[Ricardo]

It is perhaps worth remembering, that the E.C. have previously found against individual MPs from several individual parties, including both PTP & the Democrats, bringing more fairness & reducing political-corruption here must seem a thankless task at times, but at least they're trying.

[animatic]

It is perhaps worth remembering, that the E.C. have previously found against individual MPs from several individual parties, including both PTP & the Democrats, bringing more fairness & reducing political-corruption here must seem a thankless task at times, but at least they're trying.

Yes, in general they have been surprisingly even handed on the MP's from all parties.

I should be noted that the TRT and PPP party cases were handled slowly methodically

and went the distance because they were not rushed.

The two recent Dems cases were not planned to be filed at all, from lack of real evidence,

only loudly shouted accusations, until those shouts became threats,

suddenly there came a urgency to do it, overriding previous decisions against;

namely brought on by Artisamans Red Mob and the threats against the EC members

and their families, while the Red Rallies continued to spin out of control. So they rushed to file something in a week flat.

Was it rushed and shoddy? Or a poisoned challis left to get the Reds to back off,

but ultimately reach the ORIGINAL EC and Party Reg'r's decisions?

Edited December 10, 2010 by animatic