Democrats' Popularity In Isaan Does Not Mean A Poll Win: Kraisak

[webfact]

Democrats' popularity in Isaan does not mean a poll win: Kraisak

By The Nation

Kraisak Chonhavan, the ruling Democrat Party's deputy leader in charge of Northeast, said yesterday that poor health was stopping him from overseeing the party's campaigning for the next general election.

He said the Democrats were becoming popular in the Northeast due to government policies, but he doubts if it can be translated into an election victory.

"The government's policies have received good responses in Isaan, but the Democrat Party does not have people in the area who can translate that into political score," Kraisak said. He is the son of the late former prime minister Chatichai Choonhavan.

He added that the party had selected a number of candidates to contest in the Northeast during the next general election, which should be held next year.

"These people are not influential figures. They are just young people with good health and good education," he added.

Kraisak said fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra still led the popularity ratings in the Northeast, adding that the Democrats lagged behind despite the populist measures. During Thaksin's tenure, villagers had direct access to state funds via projects such as the Village Fund. However, he said, this government was catching up through other transparent projects for rural areas.

When asked about the possibility of the Democrats joining hands with the coalition Bhum Jai Thai Party in the next general election, Kraisak said this issue would be decided by the ruling party's board of executives. He said that an alliance with Bhum Jai Thai would be "a good thing", but it might result in the Democrats failing to field their candidates in certain constituencies.

"Also, in some parts of Isaan, Bhum Jai Thai is seen as being ungrateful," he said, referring to the perception that Bhum Jai Thai's de facto leader Newin Chidchob, who was formerly Thaksin's close aide, "ungratefully" left the former leader to help the Democrats form a government in 2008. This was after Thaksin's proxy People Power Party was dissolved by court order.

In a related development, a Bhum Jai Thai source said yesterday the party had "gone all out" during last Sunday's by-elections in Nakhon Ratchasima and Surin after Newin told them "we cannot afford to lose".

Bhum Jai Thai defeated the opposition Pheu Thai Party in both Northeastern provinces, and Newin did not have to suffer another loss like the party's by-election defeat in Roi Et and Sakon Nakhon in June last year.

"We want to do away with the Thaksin regime and hope to win in the Northeast," the source said.

Another Bhum Jai Thai source said that Newin had told the party that a private firm would be hired to conduct a survey on the popularity of the party's candidates, and those found to have a poor approval rating would not be fielded in the general election.

-- The Nation 2010-12-16

[asiawatcher]

More lip service to gain headlines!

[hammered]

Kraisak gets it. Without canvassers you aint got a hope. BJT will compete with PTP. It will be interesting to see if the Dems and BJT do a deal where they dont run against each other. If they do, they can get very close to if not over a majority between them. That scenario is one that worries PTP

[jdinasia]

Kraisak gets it. Without canvassers you aint got a hope. BJT will compete with PTP. It will be interesting to see if the Dems and BJT do a deal where they dont run against each other. If they do, they can get very close to if not over a majority between them. That scenario is one that worries PTP

Yeppers, the downside to that is that Newin continues to have the power to be the one that chooses the party that sets gets the PM position. Newin's political barometer seems to always work (making him an interesting figure in Thai politics to watch!)

I really would like to see the government get a stronger coalition next time at bat, because if they hold on through another set of elections that break Thaksin's hold on the smaller political machines in Isaan. I think much of this may play out rather publicly over the next month. If there are few new PTP defections then PTP will hold onto Isaan. If, on the other hand, Newin can bring over some of the more local powerhouses to BJT then Isaan is cracked and will likely not ever land a 30%+ hold on parliament in one party in the foreseeable future.

It is possible that the Dems can take a few seats up there if they can get the support of some of the tiny local machines with promises of increased spending in infrastructure and education.

[Bagwan]

So the amount of the folding stuff available to buy votes is not a factor?  If so, a massive step forward.

I have managed to convince quite a few people in my village that by selling their vote they have contributed to their own misery and that they have been bribed with their own money.  Maybe others might follow that example - or not.

[hanuman1]

So the amount of the folding stuff available to buy votes is not a factor?  If so, a massive step forward.

I have managed to convince quite a few people in my village that by selling their vote they have contributed to their own misery and that they have been bribed with their own money.  Maybe others might follow that example - or not.

An admirable campaign. I'm not sure that vote buying on all sides can be stamped out in the space of one or two elections, but my feeling is that with the heightened attention paid by the general public to the election process, it must be on the wane compared to decades ago.

[hammered]

So the amount of the folding stuff available to buy votes is not a factor?  If so, a massive step forward.

I have managed to convince quite a few people in my village that by selling their vote they have contributed to their own misery and that they have been bribed with their own money.  Maybe others might follow that example - or not.

An admirable campaign. I'm not sure that vote buying on all sides can be stamped out in the space of one or two elections, but my feeling is that with the heightened attention paid by the general public to the election process, it must be on the wane compared to decades ago.

The traditional style is. But the half up front rest later when the village achieves the rewquired percent vote for a party is insidious and intimidating. There are some other good versions where you get amazing odds from the underground gamblers to bet on a candidate to win.

It is also hard to vote for a party that isnt linked to the "man" who lends you money, farm machinary or the "man" who owns the mill. If you do you usually need to keep very quiet and also hope none of your neigbours tell stories on you.

The block vote remains a solid thing in most villages.

[hanuman1]

So the amount of the folding stuff available to buy votes is not a factor?  If so, a massive step forward.

I have managed to convince quite a few people in my village that by selling their vote they have contributed to their own misery and that they have been bribed with their own money.  Maybe others might follow that example - or not.

An admirable campaign. I'm not sure that vote buying on all sides can be stamped out in the space of one or two elections, but my feeling is that with the heightened attention paid by the general public to the election process, it must be on the wane compared to decades ago.

The traditional style is. But the half up front rest later when the village achieves the rewquired percent vote for a party is insidious and intimidating. There are some other good versions where you get amazing odds from the underground gamblers to bet on a candidate to win.

It is also hard to vote for a party that isnt linked to the "man" who lends you money, farm machinary or the "man" who owns the mill. If you do you usually need to keep very quiet and also hope none of your neigbours tell stories on you.

The block vote remains a solid thing in most villages.

That 'betting' one's new to me - amazing how people find more and more ingenious ways to corrupt a process.

As for block voting, I'm reliably informed that units in the army have been heavily pressured to vote certain ways of late. It's all rather depressing.

Where does that leave the debate about people voting for parties/policies that improve their lives?

[animatic]

I like the ungrateful part. Newin was as loyal as he might ever be, until Thaksin stiffed him in the meeting in Hong Kong, after that the ball game turned, so now Thaksin's acolytes try to paint Newin as ungrateful to Thaksin, but Thaksin had done did his 'stab them when they aren't useful enough to him' bit, and Newin left.

It was a gross miscalculation on Thaksin's part to alienate Newin, and he has paid the price since. So now he is a war weapon of the Dems, and has larger and larger segments to deliver, and his ability to do so is increasing, not decreasing, so what other tactic does PTP have but try for the disloyal card, which can resonate in a kowtow society, and hide who was disloyal to whom first. Newin is best described as a Duke who has shifted liege lord, and moved up the chain.

Edited December 16, 2010 by animatic

[hammered]

So the amount of the folding stuff available to buy votes is not a factor?  If so, a massive step forward.

I have managed to convince quite a few people in my village that by selling their vote they have contributed to their own misery and that they have been bribed with their own money.  Maybe others might follow that example - or not.

An admirable campaign. I'm not sure that vote buying on all sides can be stamped out in the space of one or two elections, but my feeling is that with the heightened attention paid by the general public to the election process, it must be on the wane compared to decades ago.

The traditional style is. But the half up front rest later when the village achieves the rewquired percent vote for a party is insidious and intimidating. There are some other good versions where you get amazing odds from the underground gamblers to bet on a candidate to win.

It is also hard to vote for a party that isnt linked to the "man" who lends you money, farm machinary or the "man" who owns the mill. If you do you usually need to keep very quiet and also hope none of your neigbours tell stories on you.

The block vote remains a solid thing in most villages.

That 'betting' one's new to me - amazing how people find more and more ingenious ways to corrupt a process.

As for block voting, I'm reliably informed that units in the army have been heavily pressured to vote certain ways of late. It's all rather depressing.

Where does that leave the debate about people voting for parties/policies that improve their lives?

I guess we have to remember that Thailand is still relatively new to the voting game and is a developing demcoracy. It has a way to go before a tabloid media culture gets to influence how people vote and vote buying ceases but multi billion baht spends on advertising occur...

Im sure some vote based on policies in areas where canvassing isnt pervasive. However, more seriously maybe when the policy can change your life more than the instant handout and when there is a vehicle for all parties to get their message to all people regardless of who controls the area, I guess it will change. That is a way off imho

Not surprised at military and look to the whole history of local officials. Chavalit won an election years ago on promising Kamnan their position for life. Thaksin backed down on dealing with useless civil servants to keep a vote influencing block together. Nice pay raises going on now courtesy of BJT. Take a read of the Balls book on Taharn Praharn too for use in effecting election result.