Signs Looking Good For Abhisit To Call Election Early Next Year

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Signs looking good for Abhisit to call election early next year

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva appears ready to dissolve the House of Representatives and call the next general election any time in 2011.

On January 7, he will announce details of the "Pracha Wiwat" populist policy as a New Year gift for the people, especially low-income earners.

The measures will likely include subsidies for diesel, LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), household electricity, as well as basic food items such as eggs, pork and chicken.

In addition the government plans to help workers in the informal economy such as motorcycle taxi-drivers, street vendors and taxi-drivers become members of the social security fund.

They will also be offered access to credit from state-owned banks such as the Government Savings Bank, so as to reduce their dependence on loan sharks.

In terms of energy prices, the government has already committed to use Bt5 billion from the Oil Fund to subsidise the diesel price to keep it below Bt30 per litre. Its rationale is that if the diesel price rises above Bt30 it will trigger a rise in the prices of goods and services and the country's inflation rate, which stands now at about 3 per cent. However, the initial fund of Bt5 billion will be enough for just three months based on the current world crude oil market price of US$80-90 per barrel.

If such a subsidy is prolonged, it will lead to a public finance burden, especially in view of the crude oil up-trend as international investors flock to boost their investments in commodities such as oil.

Besides the diesel subsidy, the government plans to further extend subsidies for LPG used in households and transportation, when they expire in February this year.

The government will also extend free electricity for households using 90 units or less per month, as well provide free public buses in Bangkok and peripheral areas.

Moreover, the Abhisit Cabinet earlier approved a 5-per-cent rise for all civil servants' salaries at a cost of Bt13 billion per year while raising the salaries of MPs and senators by more than 14 per cent, to be effective after the next general election.

The Cabinet earlier also endorsed a Bt8-17 hike in the country's daily minimum wage in order to boost the grassroots population's purchasing power. By year's end, the Cabinet is also expected to approve another 7 per cent pay hike for tens of thousands of local government officials nationwide. It looks like a Santa Clause is around town.

Abhisit will be completing his second year in office this month. According to the latest public opinion polls, the premier, who survived his worst political challenge in April this year, now enjoys a spike in popularity.

This is largely due to the fact that he has no formidable political rival in the country, as Thaksin Shinawatra is still a fugitive. As a result, Abhisit stands a good chance of winning a significant number of House seats in the next poll and of forming the next government.

This scenario is likely, especially in the event that the red-shirt movement can be kept at bay in the coming months. As of now, the House dissolution could probably take place in the first quarter, with a new poll held around April.

-- The Nation 2010-12-18

[Siam Simon]

These are further arrows to Abhisit's bow. Let's hope he can shame the uglies into more concessions.

[Thailand]

No doubt he is on the crest of a wave.

And the nail was hit on the head that he has no credible opposition for the post of pm at the moment. Very good chance of winning an election in early 2011 which should create stability for the next year or two if the Dems are endorsed by the people.

I think if PT and the Reds had taken the offer of elections post riots then I think we may have seen a different result.

Time will tell but after all said and done-TIT

[asiawatcher]

Certainly vote gaining policies but reasonable and easily funded from consolidated revenue. He is finally showing leadership strength and strategy to survive the quagmire of Thai politics. Well done ...