Heads I Win,Tails You Lose; Thai Charter Amendment

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Heads I win,Tails you lose

By Tulsathit Taptim

Take away the yellow shirts and the red shirts who have somewhat combined to become a political loose cannon and the ruling Democrats are now able to look at the political calendar and lie back a little bit.

One key factor is Tuesday night's passage of the charter amendment proposal that would change the electoral seat allocation system by shrinking constituencies so they have one MP each and increasing the number of party-list MPs from 80 to 125.

Whether the 375+125 formula will pass the final reading on February 11 doesn't matter to the Democrats. If the proposal is voted down, the ruling party will still be content with the automatic return to the current system (400 constituency MPs + 80 party-list MPs).

The Democrat Party's coalition partners do not like the current formula, in which constituency candidates contest under a "big constituency" pattern. The 375+125 formula is a compromise because constituencies are shrunk to make life easier for smaller parties, whereas the Democrats would benefit from the increase in the number of party-list MPs to 125.

Now the Democrats' smaller allies are on the hook. If they don't lobby for support for the 375+125 formula (which despite passing the second reading is still around a dozen votes shy of majority endorsement required to overcome the final hurdle), they will have to return to the current system, which they don't like. The Democrats can just sit and watch.

The opposition Pheu Thai Party, meanwhile, has its own dilemma, albeit a small one. Its preferred return to the 400+100 formula prescribed under the 1997 charter did not make it in this week's second reading. Not supporting the 375+125 formula virtually means the party will have to live with the "coup-installed" 400+80 formula.

On the surface, it looks like a lose-lose situation for Pheu Thai. The 375+125 formula would reduce the number of constituency seats all over the country, but more in the North and Northeast than in other regions. However, the truth is that a return to the 400+80 "coup-installed" formula would not be the end of the world, because the party once triumphed under this system. In other words, an ideological defeat for Pheu Thai doesn't necessarily mean a strategic one.

The immediate issue for Pheu Thai to confront is whether to join the final vote fully and thus give the result total legitimacy. The party boycotted the initial stage of the constitutional amendment process but was involved in the second reading this week. Supposing Pheu Thai MPs resolve to choose the 400+80 formula, they will have to decide whether to try to block the 375+125 proposal in a vote (and thus give it full legitimacy if it still passes) or boycott the final voting (and leave legitimacy questions hanging over the new system, which seems to benefit their Democrat rivals more than them).

As the coalition partners and Pheu Thai grapple with all these issues, the Democrats will be sitting pretty. The ruling camp has also been buoyed by recent opinion polls that suggest it is no longer certain that the Pheu Thai will see a sure-fire victory whenever an election is held. The much-criticised "populist" programmes seem to have yielded some positive impact where voters are concerned, and if the 375+125 system is passed, it will be a double lift for the prime minister's party.

Since the tide appears to have turned in the Democrats' favour, speculation is now growing that Abhisit Vejjajiva may dissolve the House of Representatives in April. He can wait longer if he so chooses, but the prime minister certainly will not overlook a key benefit of a House dissolution: it will leave the "loose cannon" with not much to do.

-- The Nation 2011-01-28

[asiawatcher]

Would agree with the "colourful expansion of political ideals" into nothingness - Dems are in a far better position now. Let the elections roll on and it is most likely they will be returned without too many political promises as the 'colours' are too extreme to be whisked into governance.

[SICHONSTEVE]

I do hope that the Democrats are re-elected as this will remove Pheua Thai's claims that the incumbent Government is illegitimate (formed undemocratically), once and for all. Then hopefully they will curl up and go away and let Abhisit finish the job of turning Thailand around without distractions from "crybaby" Shinawatra and his poodles!!!! Maybe this last point is simply wishful thinking on my part as that scumbag shows no signs of wanting to go away soon, annoyingly.