Censure Debate May Set Back Early Thailand Poll

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Censure debate may set back early poll

By Piyanart Srivalo

The Nation

Like it or not, there are plenty of signs that the House might get dissolved sooner rather than later.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva initially hinted that the tentative date for early elections might be April, once the charter amendments are passed. "If the Parliament passes the third reading of the draft amendments on February 11, then the government can move forward for a snap election," he had said.

Charter changes to the electoral system, which would result in 375 constituency MPs and 125 party-list MPs, were approved in the second reading in Parliament. The tally was 298 MPs and senators in favour, 211 against, with 35 abstaining and three withholding votes.

The number of votes "for" the changes is a concern for the ruling Democrats, who favour the 375-125 formula, because they would require support from more than half the existing members of parliament for the charter changes to pass the third reading. There are 625 members (475 MPs and 150 senators), therefore the bill can only be passed on February 11 if it garners 313 votes.

However, Deputy Prime Minister and Democrat Party secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban promised other coalition partners that the charter amendment would be passed in the third reading because the ruling party had already received supporting votes, a coalition party source revealed.

Suthep believes that eight out of ten members of the coalition Chart Thai Pattana Party, most of who either voted against or abstained in the second reading, should support the bill in the third reading, the source said.

In fact, all coalition partners, who initially preferred the 400-100 formula, should go with the Democrats' favoured formula. At least the electoral system will change from multiple-MP constituencies to ones with a single MP, as they have been demanding. The "missing" 25 MP seats could have an equal impact on all parties. In fact, the new electoral system might end up benefiting small and medium-sized parties, though bigger parties will also enjoy bigger benefits from the larger number of party-list MPs.

Another task that the ruling Democrat Party needs to get done before it can dissolve the House is the Bt100-billion mid-year budget, which should be considered in the Lower House on Feb 16 and should pass a third reading by mid-March.

However, there might be an obstacle to the Democrats dissolving the House - a no-confidence motion filed by the opposition Pheu Thai Party. According to the Constitution, once the opposition files a censure motion, the prime minister cannot dissolve the House. Pheu Thai Party still has not decided when they will submit the motion, but it would be a smart move if they filed it before the Parliament considers the third reading of the charter amendment on February 11.

It is still doubtful whether the ruling party wants to stay until they complete the Bt2.25-trillion 2012 budget, especially since Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanich hinted that the government might not be around for that budget.

Last but not least, the latest campaign launched yesterday by PM's secretary-general Anchalee Vanich Thepbutr, which allows the premier to keep track of agencies' performance through video teleconferencing every Friday, clearly appears to be a sign of a countdown to an election.

In the first hour-long teleconference this Friday, Abhisit will tell state officials in Ubon Ratchathani and Nong Khai to follow the Cabinet's resolution on rubber farms, and will also discuss compensation for residents of Surin, Roi Et and Si Sa Ket who were affected by the Rasi Salai Dam.

The video conferencing is expected to help Abhisit bypass the problem of being unable to visit some areas in the Northeast due to strong opposition. It could also win him some support in those areas and put his Democrat Party ahead for the next elections.

-- The Nation 2011-02-03

[SomTumTiger]

When the elections happen, and Abhisit wins a 2nd term, will be interesting to see what the Reds and Yellows ( I mean, Thaksin and batshit crazy Chamlong and Sondi do) lol

[tragickingdom]

#Abhiist is not better or worse than Mubarak. His words bear no meaning. His promises are empty. We are all awaiting the Songkran festival, in which Abhisit will order the army to shoot on unarmed RED shirt protestors. Claiming afterwards than he could not concede power yet as he need to strive for a notional unity. The point is very simple. His henchmen have not yet stolen enough money and the chances that they ever return to power are NILL, because abhisit and his friend s are spat out by Yellow and Red alike; he deserves no better,

[Tanaka]

#Abhiist is not better or worse than Mubarak. His words bear no meaning. His promises are empty. We are all awaiting the Songkran festival, in which Abhisit will order the army to shoot on unarmed RED shirt protestors. Claiming afterwards than he could not concede power yet as he need to strive for a notional unity. The point is very simple. His henchmen have not yet stolen enough money and the chances that they ever return to power are NILL, because abhisit and his friend s are spat out by Yellow and Red alike; he deserves no better,

Man you have the wrong handle. It should be T.Wit. Your logic makes about as much sense as the usual red shirt stupidities. Comparing Abhisit with Mubarak? You just do not have a clue.

[patjem]

#Abhiist is not better or worse than Mubarak. His words bear no meaning. His promises are empty. We are all awaiting the Songkran festival, in which Abhisit will order the army to shoot on unarmed RED shirt protestors. Claiming afterwards than he could not concede power yet as he need to strive for a notional unity. The point is very simple. His henchmen have not yet stolen enough money and the chances that they ever return to power are NILL, because abhisit and his friend s are spat out by Yellow and Red alike; he deserves no better,

Pure Rhetoric at best! Why do you post with no substance, evidence or facts?

[jayjay0]

#Abhiist is not better or worse than Mubarak. His words bear no meaning. His promises are empty. We are all awaiting the Songkran festival, in which Abhisit will order the army to shoot on unarmed RED shirt protestors. Claiming afterwards than he could not concede power yet as he need to strive for a notional unity. The point is very simple. His henchmen have not yet stolen enough money and the chances that they ever return to power are NILL, because abhisit and his friend s are spat out by Yellow and Red alike; he deserves no better,

Man you have the wrong handle. It should be T.Wit. Your logic makes about as much sense as the usual red shirt stupidities. Comparing Abhisit with Mubarak? You just do not have a clue.

I wonder what he is going to say when he sobers up and sees what he posted.