PM Abhisit Keeps Everyone Guessing

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PM keeps everyone guessing

By Tulsathit Taptim

Will we have a general election in June? Yesterday's newspaper headlines highlighted the possibility, after a fresh remark by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva about when he thought a snap poll could take place.

In fact, it's still a question of "can we" rather than "will we". If we dissect what Abhisit said, we see that, like his previous comments on the election, it looked like a promise but wasn't. Abhisit in essence said he hoped an election could be held in June, but not everything was up to him.

Last year, he was keen on saying "early next year". A June election is anything but "early", although, to be fair, the prime minister was talking about a House dissolution, not the election date. It was a neat tactic, as any House dissolution within the first half of the year can still be classified as "early", although the election itself can come in the second half.

So how seriously should we take him this time?

The election comment came during Abhisit's speech marking the opening of the Asean CLSA Forum, a closed event here attended by institutional investors and chief executives of companies listed on regional bourses.

Abhisit's statement that his government will not complete its term at the end of 2011 was not new. His expression of hope that an election can be held in the first half of this year was not that new, either.

In the same speech, Abhisit stopped short of declaring that the Thai political situation was now conducive for a

general election. In effect, he was saying an election around midyear was likely, or even likelier than before, on condition that nothing untoward arises from here on.

"When everything is ready, I will call an election as soon as possible," he said. "It's not necessary for me to complete my term."

It's by no means a foolproof promise, which should be something like this: "When everything is ready, I will call an election right away. I will not complete my term."

Where did the "as soon as possible" and "it's not necessary" come from? Many analysts believe those words were motivated by the need to see through the new fiscal budget and key bureaucratic and military reshuffles. In a way, that makes sense, as any wise government must want dearly to get those things done before stepping down instead of letting its successor take care of them.

But with the yellow and red shirts plotting separate sieges - which may yet be combined to become one formidable anti-government campaign - can Abhisit hold on until the third quarter of the year? Even if he sees the possibility of himself scraping through the major political roadblocks, does he "want" to do it?

To Abhisit, what's important is that he must not be bruised going into the next election. And delaying tactics might do far more than bruise him - they may slam the door shut on his political future. Yellow shirts, red shirts and Cambodia are a recipe for such a complete disaster.

You will have to read Abhisit's mind then. In normal circumstances, any prime minister will certainly do what many analysts expect him to - get a new budget ready and make sure bureaucratic mechanisms favour your party come a new election. But the present situation is not normal.

If Abhisit wants to gamble and put off the election as long as possible, what can be the pretext, then? Citing the need to pass organic laws for charter amendments could be one excuse. Another could be the issue of "political stability". As red and yellow shirts bear down on his government, they must ensure nothing they do works in Abhisit's favour.

-- The Nation 2011-02-11

[millwall_fan]

The decision is not Mr Abhisit's- it rests with the Ruling Elite who pull his strings.

As someone working in the tourist industry, I hope he calls it in June - the depths of the low season and the least worst time to lose two weekends business.

[asiawatcher]

If the PM sets the date all the fools in yellow can go home - ditto the reds. Then we can all go back to partying and our families.

[SomTumTiger]

Maybe if the idiot "Shirts" stopped F$cking things up downdown BKK. we could get an election sooner. But they don't appear to be interested, because they know the Dems are going to make significant gains among reasonable moderate voters. That scares the living sh%t out of PTP and New Politics. The Election will marginalize them even further.

Edited February 11, 2011 by SomTumTiger

[Rhalovely]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

[SomTumTiger]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

And who do you use for your "informed sources". Jatuporn? Sondhi? oh oh let me guess, Thaksin Shinatra. lol.

Better yet, who would you rather have as PM? Ill take that silence as your answer.

[Rhalovely]

SomTumTiger , How much are you getting paid by the Public Relations department of the Royal Thai Government ?

[SomTumTiger]

SomTumTiger , How much are you getting paid by the Public Relations department of the Royal Thai Government ?

500 baht per day, Same as Thakin pays you!

[Rhalovely]

SomTumTiger , Thank you for your confession .

[SomTumTiger]

SomTumTiger , Thank you for your confession .

But of course!

[Insight]

SomTumTiger , How much are you getting paid by the Public Relations department of the Royal Thai Government ?

/edit - try answering the question rather than firing off baseless, silly accusations.

Edited February 11, 2011 by Insight

[jayjay0]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

New member this morning.

Mind telling us who you were in your previous incarnation?

[Rhalovely]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

New member this morning.

Mind telling us who you were in your previous incarnation?

Your worst nightmare

[ManOnTheRoad]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

[jayjay0]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

New member this morning.

Mind telling us who you were in your previous incarnation?

Your worst nightmare

Funny you should say that.

My worst nightmare was pretty stupid. A Thai bashing expert on the seedier side of life.

[whybother]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

[ManOnTheRoad]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

I was referring to ending his term and then call for a new General Election We all have seen and heard many times he says election election election from time to time month to month but nothing happen So as for now nobody take his words seriously about election.

[whybother]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

I was referring to ending his term and then call for a new General Election We all have seen and heard many times he says election election election from time to time month to month but nothing happen So as for now nobody take his words seriously about election.

He has never said exactly when there will be an election.

Last year he offered elections in November, but the offer was rejected.

Since then he has set conditions for elections and based on those conditions being met he will call elections. He has been clear on what those conditions are, and it is clear to everyone when those conditions would be met.

The final one might be met today. So he could be calling an election over the weekend.

[ManOnTheRoad]

Hope the election will be soon and confirmed so we all can go back to our normal life

[SomTumTiger]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

I was referring to ending his term and then call for a new General Election We all have seen and heard many times he says election election election from time to time month to month but nothing happen So as for now nobody take his words seriously about election.

An end to the protests, so normal people can get on with the business of earning a living, and your have your election post haste. But the good "Shirts" don't care, because they can't win the election anyway. They are just out to cause trouble, any way they can.

[SomTumTiger]

At this stage, anyone still believing a single word coming out of Abhisit's mouth can only be calssified as a delusional fool .

New member this morning.

Mind telling us who you were in your previous incarnation?

Your worst nightmare

Oh my god, my ex-wife FOUND ME!!!!!!!!!!!! Run for it fellas!

[Rhalovely]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

I was referring to ending his term and then call for a new General Election We all have seen and heard many times he says election election election from time to time month to month but nothing happen So as for now nobody take his words seriously about election.

An end to the protests, so normal people can get on with the business of earning a living, and your have your election post haste. But the good "Shirts" don't care, because they can't win the election anyway. They are just out to cause trouble, any way they can.

Abhisit will not win the election, provided he ever calls it

[SomTumTiger]

Abhisit will not win the election, provided he ever calls it

Sure he will,

News Flash - The moment an election is called, it is "Free for All" with MP's and parties. Newin will take 20+ from PTP right away. Dems are looking at 180+, and will pick up even more party list from a 20-30 percent bump in popular vote count. Dems will be in the best position to form coalition with Newin (The devil you konw), or a fractured, splintered PTP (also the devil you know). Barnham will be there, because he is just a politcal wh$re for the highest bidder.

Its all as clear as day, to anyone with a gift for telling which way the wind is blowing.

[Rhalovely]

Abhisit will not win the election, provided he ever calls it

Sure he will,

News Flash - The moment an election is called, it is "Free for All" with MP's and parties. Newin will take 20+ from PTP right away. Dems are looking at 180+, and will pick up even more party list from a 20-30 percent bump in popular vote count. Dems will be in the best position to form coalition with Newin (The devil you konw), or a fractured, splintered PTP (also the devil you know). Barnham will be there, because he is just a politcal wh$re for the highest bidder.

Its all as clear as day, to anyone with a gift for telling which way the wind is blowing.

Delirious delusion is a serious mental condition. You should seek treatment .

[SomTumTiger]

Abhisit will not win the election, provided he ever calls it

Sure he will,

News Flash - The moment an election is called, it is "Free for All" with MP's and parties. Newin will take 20+ from PTP right away. Dems are looking at 180+, and will pick up even more party list from a 20-30 percent bump in popular vote count. Dems will be in the best position to form coalition with Newin (The devil you konw), or a fractured, splintered PTP (also the devil you know). Barnham will be there, because he is just a politcal wh$re for the highest bidder.

Its all as clear as day, to anyone with a gift for telling which way the wind is blowing.

Delirious delusion is a serious mental condition. You should seek treatment .

King of the One Liners - I am smelling a "rejoin". How soon til you get banned again?

[Rhalovely]

Abhisit will not win the election, provided he ever calls it

Sure he will,

News Flash - The moment an election is called, it is "Free for All" with MP's and parties. Newin will take 20+ from PTP right away. Dems are looking at 180+, and will pick up even more party list from a 20-30 percent bump in popular vote count. Dems will be in the best position to form coalition with Newin (The devil you konw), or a fractured, splintered PTP (also the devil you know). Barnham will be there, because he is just a politcal wh$re for the highest bidder.

Its all as clear as day, to anyone with a gift for telling which way the wind is blowing.

Delirious delusion is a serious mental condition. You should seek treatment .

King of the One Liners - I am smelling a "rejoin". How soon til you get banned again?

Thank you for confirming your lack of democratic credentials by calling for someone to be banned .

[SomTumTiger]

Thank you for confirming your lack of democratic credentials by calling for someone to be banned .

When you contribute to the discourse in a way that advances the conversation, I might consider my position, until then, I call a spade a spade.

[jayjay0]

The PM is just playing with this, i dont think there will be an election as he is thinking of ending his term

Let me get this right ... You don't think there will be an election because Abhisit is thinking of ending his term.

If he was thinking of ending his term, wouldn't that mean there would be an election?

Or are you suggesting something else will happen when he ends his term?

I was referring to ending his term and then call for a new General Election We all have seen and heard many times he says election election election from time to time month to month but nothing happen So as for now nobody take his words seriously about election.

He has never said exactly when there will be an election.

Last year he offered elections in November, but the offer was rejected.

Since then he has set conditions for elections and based on those conditions being met he will call elections. He has been clear on what those conditions are, and it is clear to everyone when those conditions would be met.

The final one might be met today. So he could be calling an election over the weekend.

Actualy there were three conditions.

the third one was that he felt sure that a election could be held with out violence.

Not sure where that one will bo.

[whybother]

Actualy there were three conditions.

the third one was that he felt sure that a election could be held with out violence.

Not sure where that one will bo.

Thaksin commented the other day that he didn't believe Abhisit will dissolve the government in April. Either he expects it earlier, or he's expecting violence.

There is currently no violence. The constitution changes are being voted on today and are expected to pass.

[monkfish]

I think a lot depend on if Abhisit is able to change the law to favor the Dems in the next election.

Should he be successful and then wins the election there will be even more trouble on the streets than now as people will claim he changed the law just to win.

If he is not successful I suspect the next election will be held under martial law again.