PM. A Thaksin Return To Politics Would Be Possible.

[dunkin2012]

Extremely well put and easy enough for most people to understand.

Not that well put. Thailand has never been {nor is presently} a developing democracy. This is stated from innocence.

Yes it is luckily a developing democracy.

From whose innocence is this stated?

Self confessed 'curmudgeonly', I agree with you.

Buyin' and Sellin' votes still practiced here....Amazing LOS....

No..........more Taksin ...... welcome To Jail....

The only place he can be ......

[scorecard]

if he comes back and they vote him in, or vice versa...they deserve what they get

Is that not the point, people learn by their own mistakes, had the last coup not taken place, perhaps Thailand would have evolved, and be moving in a more educated balanced direction right now........ an opportunity missed?

Educated and balanced? You must be joking but applying your logic from another thread this must mean that you approve of extra-judicial murders

Thaksin (as the current PM points out) is NOT exiled from Thailand. He has not publicly renounced his citizenship and is allowed to return. He will then have to serve out his jail sentence and face the (I think 19) other charges against him.

The fun part will be, if he ever serves out his sentences and attempts to return to political service (which he could not do in most countries due to his conviction of a political crime) how he will try and explain away his citizenship in other countries after the reds tried to smear Abhisit for having a UK birthright. (In other words Abhisit has always been both Thai and Brit from birth, but Thaksin sought out citizenship in other places.)

Yes, maybe he might have become more balanced given time.

And maybe also, given time, he would have become more nasty, committed more acts of massive corruption, manipulated more poor people more often using state funds to give them more false hope, intimidated the judiciary and media more, committed more massive human rights violations.

Well there's lots of strong evidence from numerous empirical beavioral research studies which indicate that past behavior is the best precictor of future behavior.

[scorecard]

I wonder why the junta supporters are not jumping up & down about him

"him" referring to MP Jatuporn.

Perhaps because very few people on TV hark back, to the days of the junta-appointed interim-government, which handed-back power to the people in January-2008, as having been all that successful ?

But some of us feel they were better than a direct-dictatorship by a kleptomaniac ! Remember when Thaksin told people, not to bother asking the rest of his Cabinet any questions, because he himself did all the work & made all the decisions ?

Somehow he is seen nowadays as a 'fighter for justice' and a 'true democrat', by some at least, perhaps they have short memories of his actions when in-power ?

And personally I find that very amusing indeed.

Well said.

[Pi Sek]

if he comes back and they vote him in, or vice versa...they deserve what they get

Is that not the point, people learn by their own mistakes, had the last coup not taken place, perhaps Thailand would have evolved, and be moving in a more educated balanced direction right now........ an opportunity missed?

Yes, maybe he might have become more balanced given time.

And maybe also, given time, he would have become more nasty, committed more acts of massive corruption, manipulated more poor people more often using state funds to give them more false hope, intimidated the judiciary and media more, committed more massive human rights violations.

Democracy's argument is that that you have to give the people the opportunity to judge for themselves whether Thaksin was out of line or not, regardless of the short term costs or indeed the length of time of the short term.

The short term costs could indeed have been unfathomable and the short term time frame could have been decades; but in a true democracy, one must allow democracy run its course. In this case, that means allowing Thaksin to rape the country to such an extent that enough opposition (quantity not "quality") to what he's doing allows for a change in the political outlook and gets him impeached. Sure, he might try to change the system so that he's legal untouchable, but democracy's argument is that this is merely a factor of the length and severity of the short term cost of allowing democracy to run its course.

Personally I think democracy is a fad. But I have no better suggestion.

Well there's lots of strong evidence from numerous empirical beavioral research studies which indicate that past behavior is the best precictor of future behavior.

"The one thing learned from history is that nothing is learned from history".

- Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

[animatic]

Kleptocracies are not better than aristocracies that care for the people.

Because kleptocracies care only for their own profits.

[hammered]

Could it be the Top Brass want to make a deal with Thaksin and Abhisit is just their mouth peace as it were?

After all if PT win the election the first thing they want to do is reverse the constitution which would leave some facing charges of treason.

May be the real sensible solution really is to make a troous? and nobody goes to jail?

All speculation of course, we will just have to wait and see what happens, but they should make the deal before elections I think.

Right now I think the military are watching Abhisit and his Dems closely. Their agendas are different. With a potential return to political normality things are becoming more fragmented with a lot on all sides being suspicious of those they previously were seen as close to.

What the establishment see as a red line is what the Dems see as something defined by legalities. The lefty reds are also paranoid about their own leadership right now. As things fragment and suspicions grow it opens opportunites for opportunists to make a play. Interesting times.

[animatic]

As things fragment and suspicions grow it opens opportunites for opportunists to make a play. Interesting times.

And opportunism is the Thai national sport and avocation. Yes, sadly, interesting times.

[jayboy]

Kleptocracies are not better than aristocracies that care for the people.

Because kleptocracies care only for their own profits.

What about an aristocracy that is also a kleptocracy, as is the case in Thailand?

[renaissanc]

if he comes back and they vote him in, or vice versa...they deserve what they get

Amen to that. But then, that's what they have been getting all along, and look at where Thailand is today, moving backwards, while the rest of the world moves forward.

Thaskin has made too many enemies to return. And if he did manage to return, I would not want to be here when he starts his cycle of revenge and payback.

Thaskin is just bad news. Period.

This is perhaps the essence of the problem. If Thaksin returned, he would cause so much upheaval by getting revenge, by attacking the "elites" and the "powers that be", and by passing laws to make sure that he could never be deposed. He would turn Thailand into a family fiefdom where all officials around Thailand with power were his "yes" people and nobody dared to say "No" to him, even more than last time. I doubt if he would be satisfied with the title of "Prime Minister" either. The elites would surely fight back, no doubt through a coup. Then we're back to Square 1.

Don't forget who his assistants would be ... Jatuporn, Natthawut, Arisaman, Chakrapop, Somporn, and the other wonderful Red Shirt leaders. Scary!

Edited March 28, 2011 by renaissanc

[asiawatcher]

It's all been said. Thaksin is now using his absentee status to try to garner red shirt support, the party he claimed he had little to do with. Even if they win (and I doubt it) he would not be let off bail jumping but he may get an appeal in place. But then again, his wife just walked back in and has not been charged with bail jumping or any criminal activity yet things were in her name so who knows? This place is a cesspool of lies, deceit and corruption and we wouldn't have it any other way. As long as any dog has a bone to play with, let it play, then let us Farang get on with out lives and do our own thing.

[jdinasia]

It's all been said. Thaksin is now using his absentee status to try to garner red shirt support, the party he claimed he had little to do with. Even if they win (and I doubt it) he would not be let off bail jumping but he may get an appeal in place. But then again, his wife just walked back in and has not been charged with bail jumping or any criminal activity yet things were in her name so who knows? This place is a cesspool of lies, deceit and corruption and we wouldn't have it any other way. As long as any dog has a bone to play with, let it play, then let us Farang get on with out lives and do our own thing.

Thaksin can not file an appeal on his one conviction for the criminal case. There is a limit on time and you must appear to file the appeal.

[alstaxi]

So just ignore his crimes against humanity . All that murder on the streets of BKK yet you say deserve Deserve .Gaddaffi springs to mind . Do you also support him ?

As you well know, his 'crimes against humanity' have not been proven by anyone. Robert Amsterdam has tried to do so in the media and has failed miserably. In fact, the only physical evidence was DISproven when it turns out the Red Shirts evidence (a doctored audio clip) had been fabricated. But you know all this of course.

If you're going to level 'crimes against humanity' charges against anyone, it should be Suthep who was in charge of the CRES during early April. But he didn't actually do anything wrong - Kwanchai and the Khon Rak Udon group had attacked the 1st Infantry Barracks with petrol bombs 4 hours previously and so Suthep ordered the army to go in and clear the protest at Khok Wua and drive the protesters back to their protest site - without all guns blazing - and were taken out, rather hard, by what you can only call armed insurgents. It is possible the army shot some protesters on 10 April afterwards either in retaliation or self defence, but that is speculation on which we cannot make an informed judgement because we don't know the facts - this is of course the DSI's fault, although you can't say they are working amongst the best conditions.

In May, you'd have to bring charges against Anupong. Even then, it would be hard to pin charges on them due to their adherence to the internationally-recognised method to clear violent/unlawful protests. So, that leaves the soldiers themselves and I somehow don't think any charges will get levelled at the military. Also, Payap Panket unreservedly deserves a crime against humanity charge for invading Chulalongkorn Hospital.

Despite our civil discourse earlier, I must pull you up on this. Claiming that it is a fact that Abhisit is a murderer is morally wrong and you should probably be ashamed of yourself. Please state in the future that this is your opinion - otherwise you look like a troll or something. It is my opinion that last year's violence was down to Thaksin paying both the Red Shirts to create a popular movement and the "Ronin Warriors" as a separate agency to create chaos by summary killings of those on both sides to instigate civil war, with a view to clearing a path for him to return as the country's saviour. But I would not claim that as a fact (unless proven as one) - it would be wrong.

So you support Gaddaffi as he has said that the rebels are terrorist ? Or is it 1 law for 1.He killed his own people just as what happened in BKK

Oh, & why should I be ashamed ? its not me that murdered almost 100 people or me that supports the murder that done it or ordered it done

No I don't support Gaddaffi, the situations are totally different and (I hope) you know it.

Libya is an undemocratic system with a military leader in place for the last 42 years. The Libyans wanted to elect a leader for themselves. Gaddaffi says no. The protesters say, "OK then, how about an election and a transgression to democracy". Gaddaffi says no. Public opinion splits the country in two.

Thailand is a developing democracy with a current prime minister elected by parliamentary means 2 years ago. The Red Shirts didn't like the fact that the army chucked out their first choice (on grounds on super corruption, autocracy, threatening the monarchy, human rights offenses and so on), then the judiciary chucked out their second and third choices (on grounds of breaking the Law), then their own political allies got pissed off with all this amateurism and decided to jump ship to a qualified government rather than have their names dragged through the mud again.

So, the Reds wanted elections. The PM offered elections. The Red Shirts add terms. The PM answers the terms. The Red Shirts add yet more terms. The PM again answers them. The Red Shirts add yet more terms still. The PM says, "enough is enough, I'm getting stick for not cracking down weeks ago - what's it to be?" The Red Shirts say, "If you don't accept our terms, we'll fight." So they fought.

You should be ashamed that you are trying to convince others that a rumour, which has been disproven at every turn, is a fact. You shouldn't be ashamed of having an opinion - that's your right and it shows you have a brain able to look at the details and form your own judgement. You are saying you shouldn't be ashamed because you didn't directly or indirectly murder anyone, but you are accusing someone else who didn't directly or indirectly murder anyone of doing so. I think that's wrong... don't you?

+1000

[OZEMADE]

1. What makes anyone think Thaksin ever left politics, he still runs things.

2. He can do his 2 years on home detention, that is if he hasent already done a deal for the charge or charges to be dropped.

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

[jdinasia]

1. What makes anyone think Thaksin ever left politics, he still runs things.

2. He can do his 2 years on home detention, that is if he hasent already done a deal for the charge or charges to be dropped.

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

Regarding number 1 --- this is why it probably isn't safe for him to ever return.

Regarding number 2 --- can't drop charges on a conviction.

Regarding number 3 --- he still has many charges to answer that cannot proceed until he is in the country. He has already shown himself to be willing to flee justice so there are certainly grounds to deny bail on any future charges. THEN he could go for an elected position again.

[geriatrickid]

I think it would be hilarious if the Thaksin associated parties were to somehow win the next election. The sheer joy of knowing that some ofThaiVisa's spewers of venom would be worried and looking over their shoulders would do it for me.

Who can say what makes us tickle and why? For me, Thaksin actually being brought to justice, along with any other corrupt politician, would make me pretty happy, maybe even enjoy a little chuckle. Don't suppose his legion of fans here on Thaivisa would share my joy.

My quote was taken out of context (and a violation of posting rules at that). The full text was;

I think it would be hilarious if the Thaksin associated parties were to somehow win the next election. One could have so much fun suggesting that the secret internet police were closing in on Pattaya and Si Racha looking for angry old miserable farangs.

I have bolded the section you dropped which conveys the reason for my finding it amusing. Perhaps I should have added, it would also cause some to have conniptions to the point of being so throughly vexed they would revert to a zombie state. Yes corruption is bad. Do you think there is a possibility that PM Abhisit might consider acting since he is PM? What do you make of the current Deputy PM, the one with the lengthy dossier?

Edited March 28, 2011 by geriatrickid

[geriatrickid]

<br>

<br>It's all been said.  Thaksin is now using his absentee status to try to garner red shirt support, the party he claimed he had little to do with.  Even if they win (and I doubt it) he would not be let off bail jumping but he may get an appeal in place.  But then again, his wife just walked back in and has not been charged with bail jumping or any criminal activity yet things were in her name so who knows?  This place is a cesspool of lies, deceit and corruption and we wouldn't have it any other way.  As long as any dog has a bone to play with, let it play, then let us Farang get on with out lives and do our own thing.<br>

<br><br>Thaksin can not file an appeal on his one conviction for the criminal case. There is a limit on time and you must appear to file the appeal.<br>

And hence the strong possibility of a pardon if the tide changes. In Thai politics anything can happen. Today's ally becomes an enemy. An enemy becomes one's new ally.

Whether or not a pardon is merited is another discussion, but as you know, the Thais have an ability to reach a consensus and peaceful settlement to some issues that one would not expect. Thailand is also the land of smiles when it comes to politics.

Edited March 28, 2011 by geriatrickid

[siampolee]

'' The enemy of my enemy is my friend.''

[Buchholz]

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

"The computer says No"

Section 102. A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(4) having been sentenced by a judgement to imprisonment

[kuffki]

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

"The computer says No"

Section 102. A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(4) having been sentenced by a judgement to imprisonment

Well before he can do anything, he would need to apply for a citizenship and apparently according to todays article it takes 6-10 years to get one.

Lucky he does not have a problem with the language test and has plenty of time to "serve" while awaiting the citizenship approval.

No doubt, he would not bribe anyone to speed it up because he is an "honest" politician and businessman and never did anything corrupt.

[rubl]

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

"The computer says No"

Section 102. A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(4) having been sentenced by a judgement to imprisonment

Needs clarification. It seems to say 'cannot be candidate for MP' which is not the same as being elected by MPs to be PM.

Edited March 28, 2011 by rubl

[metisdead]

One potentially dangerous question has been removed. The response to that question would likely have been a breach of forum rule.

[Buchholz]

3. Under Thai law even if he did his 2 years he can run for Prime Minister again and I would back him in getting it.

"The computer says No"

Section 102. A person under any of the following prohibitions shall have no right to be a candidate in an election of members of the House of Representatives:

(4) having been sentenced by a judgement to imprisonment

Needs clarification. It seems to say 'cannot be candidate for MP' which is not the same as being elected by MPs to be PM.

"The computer still says No"

Section 171. The Prime Minister must be a member of the House of Representatives

.

Edited March 28, 2011 by Buchholz

[jdinasia]

Hmmm can't be an MP with a conviction and jail-term sentence and must be an MP to be PM Nice!

[ianbaggie]

Mr. Thaksin is a spent force and PM Abhisit knows it. That's why he's calling the Thaksin bluff. It's a way of showing that Abhisit is not scared of the Thaksin mystique. The best that Thaksin could hope for is a position as adviser to the government. In return for being allowed to return and a face saving position, along with a pardon, Mr. Thaksin would have to stay out of the day to day politics of Thailand.

I think it would be hilarious if the Thaksin associated parties were to somehow win the next election. The sheer joy of knowing that some ofThaiVisa's spewers of venom would be worried and looking over their shoulders would do it for me. One could have so much fun suggesting that the secret internet police were closing in on Pattaya and Si Racha looking for angry old miserable farangs.

Personally - i think it would be hilarious too - not for the (not so much of the old) persecution of people exercising their democratic right to express an anti red opinion - but for the sheer mess and unbelievable joke situation that president Thaksin and prime minister Jathuporn would create. Can you imagine?? I think the red writers on this forum would be MUCH more embarrased than the anti sHINAWATRA crowd!!

[jdinasia]

Mr. Thaksin is a spent force and PM Abhisit knows it. That's why he's calling the Thaksin bluff. It's a way of showing that Abhisit is not scared of the Thaksin mystique. The best that Thaksin could hope for is a position as adviser to the government. In return for being allowed to return and a face saving position, along with a pardon, Mr. Thaksin would have to stay out of the day to day politics of Thailand.

I think it would be hilarious if the Thaksin associated parties were to somehow win the next election. The sheer joy of knowing that some ofThaiVisa's spewers of venom would be worried and looking over their shoulders would do it for me. One could have so much fun suggesting that the secret internet police were closing in on Pattaya and Si Racha looking for angry old miserable farangs.

Personally - i think it would be hilarious too - not for the (not so much of the old) persecution of people exercising their democratic right to express an anti red opinion - but for the sheer mess and unbelievable joke situation that president Thaksin and prime minister Jathuporn would create. Can you imagine?? I think the red writers on this forum would be MUCH more embarrased than the anti sHINAWATRA crowd!!

It seems as if the ending sentences if GK's post were just intended as baiting for posters/former posters... kinda sad. Thaksin back (even outside of the driver's seat *cough* --- would probably end precipitously)

[geriatrickid]

It seems as if the ending sentences if GK's post were just intended as baiting for posters/former posters... kinda sad. Thaksin back (even outside of the driver's seat *cough* --- would probably end precipitously)

No, its not baiting. It's a wry comment about the mental cripples that are obsessed with Thaksin as if the sun rises and sets based upon his daily bowel movements. Those that are continually ripping into Thaksin are oblivious to the problems that both preceded and followed his stint as PM. They assume that anyone and everyone that doesn't agree is somehow a Thaksin supporter. They assume that those that opposed a military coup and overthrow of a PM support corruption. The need to label people that disagree with demonstrates a cult like group think. As such they would be more susceptible to rumours that Thaksin had planted spy cams in the loo or has secret double knot agents following them. One could have lots of fun suggesting that the supporters of Thaksin would strike back.

Whether Thakisn stays away or returns, life will go on and corruption will be as bad tomorrow as it is today, and as it was yesterday. Welcome to Thailand where just about everyone has his price.

[TAWP]

No, its not baiting. It's a wry comment about the mental cripples that are obsessed with Thaksin as if the sun rises and sets based upon his daily bowel movements.

I would agree that those that love and are obsessed with Thaksin are mental cripples.

Thank you for pointing it out.

[jdinasia]

It seems as if the ending sentences if GK's post were just intended as baiting for posters/former posters... kinda sad. Thaksin back (even outside of the driver's seat *cough* --- would probably end precipitously)

No, its not baiting. It's a wry comment about the mental cripples that are obsessed with Thaksin as if the sun rises and sets based upon his daily bowel movements. Those that are continually ripping into Thaksin are oblivious to the problems that both preceded and followed his stint as PM. They assume that anyone and everyone that doesn't agree is somehow a Thaksin supporter. They assume that those that opposed a military coup and overthrow of a PM support corruption. The need to label people that disagree with demonstrates a cult like group think. As such they would be more susceptible to rumours that Thaksin had planted spy cams in the loo or has secret double knot agents following them. One could have lots of fun suggesting that the supporters of Thaksin would strike back.

Whether Thakisn stays away or returns, life will go on and corruption will be as bad tomorrow as it is today, and as it was yesterday. Welcome to Thailand where just about everyone has his price.

Wow, and a quick move from baiting to flaming! "The need to label people that disagree..." certainly looks like hypocrisy in light of the "mental cripples" etc remarks

[dunkin2012]

I don't think he can come back.......... because Gen.Prem keeps watchin' his moves....

if he can come back and restore his power in LOS, I'll leave...

will say farewell to LOS... ......

[geriatrickid]

Wow, and a quick move from baiting to flaming! "The need to label people that disagree..." certainly looks like hypocrisy in light of the "mental cripples" etc remarks

Get over it. Stop playing the pointing of fingers game. It is tiresome. The fact of the matter is that there has been a great deal of labelling of anyone not aligned with the small cult of Thaksin haters in Thai Visa as scions of Satan. It's not indicative of rational behaviour. Plenty of people are opposed to Thaksin's policies and actions, but they have managed to keep it civil without resorting to nastiness or constantly belittling rural folk, the poor, or referring to Thaksin voters as bought off.