Do You Think The Dems Will Win The Next Election?

[davejonesbkk]

Does anyone really think that the Democrats will win the election here this June/July? I just cant see it happening tbh, round where I live all the posters for the Dems have either been defaced or someone has cut out Abhist's face. I personally think they are going to get trounced at the polls.

If Peu Thai do win, then what?

[Jingthing]

Wait till they put up the Yingluck posters. It's hardly a surprise that red shirt activists would deface Abhisit posters. How that translates to the Thaksin puppet party winning the election doesn't exactly compute. There is no way the democrats will get pounced. Much more likely, they will do somewhat better than last time.

[Loz]

A more realistic question would be:

Does anyone think it matters who wins the next election?

[zzaa09]

A more realistic question would be:

Does anyone think it matters who wins the next election?

A realistic answer would be: No.....it doesn't matter. Same as it ever was regardless of the outcome.

[h90]

Depending on the funds....

200 baht

300 baht

500 baht

who pays more wins the election.

Many of the hardcore Democrate voters are angry

Many of the red voters are angry

So it is complete open, but it does not matter which puppet is sitting there.....

[Tywais]

It only takes one disenchanted person to deface the posters so not exactly conclusive.

[robblok]

Neither party will get a majority and then they have to bribe the other parties with good ministerposts (read where you can steal a lot of money) to form a coalition.

[bunnaag]

It does not help the Democrats that the bean farmer Chamlong tells the yellow shirts not to vote.

[chuang]

If the Democrats play by the rule, PTP would win....

[cdnvic]

It only takes one disenchanted person to deface the posters so not exactly conclusive.

We're in the middle of an election in Canada and the party with the most defaced signs looks like it will win quite handily so I doubt its much of a factor.

[cdnvic]

Mentioning the Royals, even in a subtle way is not allowed in a political context. One post removed.

[PoorSucker]

I predict same result as in 2007 (Proportional votes)

Reds 39.60 %

Dems 39.63 %

[tig28]

I predict same result as in 2007 (Proportional votes)

Reds 39.60 %

Dems 39.63 %

The Proportional Vote accounted for just 67 seats (PPP:34---Dem:33)

The Constituency vote accounted for 331 seats (PPP:199 -- Dem:132)

PPP: 36.63%

Dem: 30.30%

[JurgenG]

According to what I heard, the democrats will lead the next coalition but Abhisit is gone, replaced by Korn.

Just in case you have any doubt, please remember the rules of recent elections in Thailand :

Rule #1 : The democrats win

Rule #2 : If the democrats lose, refer to rule #1

[zzaa09]

According to what I heard, the democrats will lead the next coalition but Abhisit is gone, replaced by Korn.

Just in case you have any doubt, please remember the rules of recent elections in Thailand :

Rule #1 : The democrats win

Rule #2 : If the democrats lose, refer to rule #1

Naturally, rules one and two will apply. If the real suggestion that Marky will be gone.....whom might you think will be his replacement if Korn is rejected?

Edited April 18, 2011 by zzaa09

[SomTumTiger]

I predict same result as in 2007 (Proportional votes)

Reds 39.60 %

Dems 39.63 %

You are forgetting one thing. Newin.

He is stronger, is going to take a larger amount of PTP votes away, and it will more likely be:

Democrats - 40%

Puea Thai - 35%

Bhun Jai Thai - 15%

Chat Thai Pattana - 5%

BS Small Parties - 5%

This is always discounting the number of PTP MP's that are reportedly ready to jump ship, as soon as the house is dissolved. If its more than 20, look for PTP's numbers to sink even lower.

People don't' forget the image of Bangkok burning and the Reds invading the hospital. Nor should they.

[pauljones]

If the yellow team doesn't like the results, they will order another coup.

It's been that way for decades.

[geriatrickid]

It only takes one disenchanted person to deface the posters so not exactly conclusive.

We're in the middle of an election in Canada and the party with the most defaced signs looks like it will win quite handily so I doubt its much of a factor.

Oh, so you think the Liberals are going to win?

BTW Mr. Duceppe has quite a stand on immigrants that would fit in well in Thailand. Nationalist stuff and all that.

[geriatrickid]

A more realistic question would be:

Does anyone think it matters who wins the next election?

You mean you think the military has final say?

[SomTumTiger]

If the yellow team doesn't like the results, they will order another coup.

It's been that way for decades.

Apparently, you haven't seen the "large numbers" the yellows have been drawing. They seem to be a spent force, for the time being. As for the coup talk, I have been saying for a while, and still maintain that we will not see another (every day along my argument gets stronger). The military in 2006 were unprepared for the huge amount of international 24 hour media exposure their actions engendered. Like cockroaches who hate the light, they military are contenting themselves to be "behind the scenes" players. I am not naive enough to think they are not involved, but I do think that they will not be staging any coups for while, perhaps ever.

[davejonesbkk]

I know seeing posters of Abhisit defaced isnt a benchmark for who will win the election, I just found it interesting how much anger there seems to be towards him, its on pretty much every Dems poster Ive seen so far and Ive never once seend it before for other election such as local ones for other politicians....

If the dems do lose thought I think it will not go down well at all with the public if the military attempt another coup.

[DP25]

They will almost certainly be able to form a coalition government, but not get the outright majority. No one will get a majority just like last time. With PT focus being solely on Thaksin and a large majority not supporting him, and members defecting left and right, the chances of them governing are shrinking every day.

[IanForbes]

It is really too bad for Thailand, but I don't think anything will change no matter who wins. I see similarities in western countries. Right now, Canada is about to have a Federal election and it's basically just so the ruling party can get a majority. We've had two minority governments in a row and it keeps the leader's hands tied in forcing through policies that others object to.

If politicians actually tried to work TOGETHER to solve problems in our countries the people would be far better off. But, as it stands now we see more parties trying to PULL DOWN good polices than improve the ones that are good.

[pauljones]

If the yellow team doesn't like the results, they will order another coup.

It's been that way for decades.

Apparently, you haven't seen the "large numbers" the yellows have been drawing. They seem to be a spent force, for the time being. As for the coup talk, I have been saying for a while, and still maintain that we will not see another (every day along my argument gets stronger). The military in 2006 were unprepared for the huge amount of international 24 hour media exposure their actions engendered. Like cockroaches who hate the light, they military are contenting themselves to be "behind the scenes" players. I am not naive enough to think they are not involved, but I do think that they will not be staging any coups for while, perhaps ever.

According to the Wikileaks Cables sent from the US Ambassador, the 2006 coup was ordered by the (name and title withheld).

And it wasn't because Thaksin was corrupt. It was personal.

Throwing the Country into turmoil for a personal grievance. Nice.

..and you won't read it in the Thai press.

[SomTumTiger]

If the yellow team doesn't like the results, they will order another coup.

It's been that way for decades.

Apparently, you haven't seen the "large numbers" the yellows have been drawing. They seem to be a spent force, for the time being. As for the coup talk, I have been saying for a while, and still maintain that we will not see another (every day along my argument gets stronger). The military in 2006 were unprepared for the huge amount of international 24 hour media exposure their actions engendered. Like cockroaches who hate the light, they military are contenting themselves to be "behind the scenes" players. I am not naive enough to think they are not involved, but I do think that they will not be staging any coups for while, perhaps ever.

According to the Wikileaks Cables sent from the US Ambassador, the 2006 coup was ordered by the (name and title withheld).

And it wasn't because Thaksin was corrupt. It was personal.

Throwing the Country into turmoil for a personal grievance. Nice.

..and you won't read it in the Thai press.

I didn't address why the 2006 coup happened. I did address wha will most likely happen going forward. And, just like wikipedia, wikileaks is not considered a viable "first source" to support an argument. (Speaks the university professor)

Edited April 19, 2011 by SomTumTiger

[saraburioz]

A more realistic question would be:

Does anyone think it matters who wins the next election?

Or does anyone care?

One of my uncles is a senator and another an MP - I suppose they care but I couldn't even tell you which party they are.

Edited April 19, 2011 by saraburioz

[tig28]

The military in 2006 were unprepared for the huge amount of international 24 hour media exposure their actions engendered. Like cockroaches who hate the light, they military are contenting themselves to be "behind the scenes" players.

+1 -- Agreed

I am not naive enough to think they are not involved, but I do think that they will not be staging any coups for while, perhaps ever.

"perhaps ever" --- That's a long,long time. I would never be so confident. Following the last Coup the military very significantly increased their "take" -- should an unexpected election result threaten their "take" (as in 2006) I very much doubt that the military would just sit idly by and watch their world crumble around them.

In the study Truth on Trial in Thailand: Defamation, Treason, and Lèse Majesté, it is noted that coups are not the exception:

"The cycle in Thailand has become so familiar it seems normal: a coup is staged, the constitution is abolished, coup makers grant themselves an amnesty, a new constitution is drafted, new elections are held, the newly-elected government is perceived as increasingly corrupt, a crisis ensues; the next coup is staged, and so on."

wikileaks is not considered a viable "first source" to support an argument.

Not disagreeing -- but why ?

[Robby nz]

Interesting to note that the countries on both sides of Thailand (Cambodia and Burma) were taken over in coups and those who took over have held onto power, sometimes with a lot of bloodshed, ever since.

Contrast that with the latest Thai coup where the army actually held elections and allowed the results to stand.

They could very well have stayed on and ran the country for their exclusive benefit as in the 2 aforementioned neigbours.

Sure the courts kicked out 2 reincarnations of TRT before Newin changed sides to go with the Dems allowing them to form a Govt.

Whether the military have any influance over the courts is a moot point.

However the point I am making is they didnt hold on to power as they could have.

So will the Dem's win?

I suspect they will be able to form a Govt............... with a breakaway group from PTP possibly led by someone whoes name starts with the initial M.

[zzaa09]

Interesting to note that the countries on both sides of Thailand (Cambodia and Burma) were taken over in coups and those who took over have held onto power, sometimes with a lot of bloodshed, ever since.

Contrast that with the latest Thai coup where the army actually held elections and allowed the results to stand.

They could very well have stayed on and ran the country for their exclusive benefit as in the 2 aforementioned neigbours.

Sure the courts kicked out 2 reincarnations of TRT before Newin changed sides to go with the Dems allowing them to form a Govt.

Whether the military have any influance over the courts is a moot point.

However the point I am making is they didnt hold on to power as they could have.

Huh..?? Haven't held on to the power and influence? I'm assuming you're jesting, yes? The military has always held the cards.

Edited April 20, 2011 by zzaa09