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Artic Ice

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It's all over the BBC yesterday and today, so I won't bother posting a link. It's yet another report lining up with many others recently emphasizing that the world's ice caps are melting even faster than previously thought, and with even greater connections to global climate change.

Possible long-term concerns are:

1. Lowering of Earth's albedo, leading to a much hotter planet overall (which in the middle term could ironically precipitate another ice age, if enough gases increase our cloud cover)

2. Flooding of beaches and lowland areas everywhere

3. Dramatic instability and intensity in the weather; loss of predictable weather cycles (anyone notice how "El Nino" seems to have become "the way things are?"), eventual change in air and water current patterns leading to commercial, environmental, and economic disaster for many species including humans.

Naturally, no one has any "proof"- but *most* of the people who are smart & qualified enough to have a publishable opinion seem to think that human-related actitivities are exacerbating this global warming trend (which is itself uncontested).

Now, I don't know how any of you guys do risk assessment- but let's take one simple approach. Multiple the chance of an event happening by the payoff (or penalty).

For example, tomorrow if I go to work, there's a 99.9999999% that I will make $10. That makes my chance of success x payoff=$9.9999999. In other words, a pretty sure bet.

If I buy a lottery ticket that pays $100,000, but my odds are a million to one, then by the same formula my theoretical payoff is only 1/1,000,000 * $100,000, or about ten cents.

In other words, working is a sure bet, but the lottery ticket is a long shot.

Now, take any reasonable percentage you care to attach to the chance of human-related activities increasing or accelerating global warming (even the gung-ho commercial opportunists give some credence to these models) and multiply that by the effects of environmental breakdown as detailed above.....

Pretty scary, I think.

"Steven"

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Thanks for the review on risk assessment and probability, Steven - it was lovely :o And yes, I agree that it's scary, inevitable, and most urgently, upon us.

I think this has been a watershed year (sorry for the pun) in terms of the frequency, severity, and widespread effects of natural disasters. I do not believe this is a fluke, and I think scientists will also find a conclusive link between the recent severe weather calamities that have affected the enitre planet this year, and a surge in the process of global warming. I think there is a very high probability that these events are linked to something other than coincidence.

Quite scary, indeed. I think there has been a major shift in life as humans understand it on the planet, within our lifetimes.

Thought I'd throw this in:

"And for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress."

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/newsroom/20050920a.html

It may very well be the sun is effecting both the earth and mars. If humans are contributing to this global warming faze which the earth is naturally going through, imo, is it a significant amount?

Fascinating link, Aughie. Since they only have about 7 years of weather-pattern data on Mars, I think it will be sometime before they can make a link between climate change on both planets.

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Not to mention that Mars is continually losing atmosphere due to its smaller size and gravitation pull- that's why its atmosphere is so thin, and why scientists say there is evidence of greater atmospheric pressure (and surface water) in the past. One could predict without measuring that Mars would be losing surface volatiles of all types, so this data makes perfect sense.

So, if *other planets'* weathers are harbingers of our weather here on Earth, what does that ol' Red Spot on Jupiter portend (it's a storm larger than the planet Earth that's been going on for centuries)?

:o

"Steven"

Not to mention that Mars is continually losing atmosphere due to its smaller size and gravitation pull- that's why its atmosphere is so thin, and why scientists say there is evidence of greater atmospheric pressure (and surface water) in the past.  One could predict without measuring that Mars would be losing surface volatiles of all types, so this data makes perfect sense.

So, if *other planets'* weathers are harbingers of our weather here on Earth, what does that ol' Red Spot on Jupiter portend (it's a storm larger than the planet Earth that's been going on for centuries)?

:o

"Steven"

Weather astrology.....a new pseudoscience is born.....buy in now and get in on the ground floor!!!!

Yep...the Artic (sic) ice is melting rapidly.

Maybe Al Gore and Hollywood are right after all... :o

1. Buy arctic beach front property now for next to nothing.

2. Wait for global warming to melt the ice.

3. Sell the beach front property for lots of money.

4. Kaching!

1.  Buy arctic beach front property now for next to nothing.

2.  Wait for global warming to melt the ice.

3.  Sell the beach front property for lots of money.

4.  Kaching!

Or, watch "Day After Tomorrow" and bury your head in the sand... :o

Yep...the Artic (sic) ice is melting rapidly.

Maybe, instead of destroying all the worlds unwanted Refridgerators, they could be shipped out there and plugged in with the doors left open :o

ok, you guys can make fun all you want, but right now you are the ones who are unscientific in your arguments :o

I do like the fridge idea, though :D

I do like the fridge idea, though  :o

Wouldn't work - bad physics there.

You leave your fridge door open and it heats the room due to the compressor and condensor/evaporator working harder... :D

Climate change is cyclic - I'm afraid. We've seen much warmer avg mean tempertures long ago. However it doesnt mean we can't be environmentally sound to a point. Debate is far from over I'm afraid. :o

Below is an interesting twist to the debate. The info is an extract from a 1999 news stories which has this week been re-cycled with the same fear factor:

The discovery of the first virus preserved in the Arctic ice has prompted a warning that there may be more, and that warm weather may release them to start epidemics.

The virus, a tomato mosaic tobamovirus (ToMV) was found by a team of American researchers.

The discovery, reported in the magazine New Scientist, suggests that other viruses, possibly including 'flu, smallpox and polio, may also have survived in the ice.

One of the team, Tom Starmer, of Syracuse University, said: "We don't know the survival rate, or how often they get back into the environment. But it certainly is possible."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/435440.stm

This satellite im shows the Arctic sea ice spread on September 21, 2005, when it dropped to the lowest extent yet recorded. The yellow outline indicates where the concentration of ice was as of September 21, 1979.

Photo: AFP

post-19930-1128066181_thumb.jpg

This satellite im shows the Arctic sea ice spread on September 21, 2005, when it dropped to the lowest extent yet recorded. The yellow outline indicates where the concentration of ice was as of September 21, 1979.

Photo: AFP

It's moving :o

This satellite im shows the Arctic sea ice spread on September 21, 2005, when it dropped to the lowest extent yet recorded. The yellow outline indicates where the concentration of ice was as of September 21, 1979.

Photo: AFP

It's moving :o

yeah, it's difficult to tell but the size of the mass looks about the same but it has shifted. So by the looks of it, it isn't melting really.

In the 'millions may die from bird flu' topic...IJWT was rather less Mother Teresa-ish, saying...

If a truly "new" strain of human-transmissible flu virus hits, millions will die everywhere regardless. That ain't news.

Re-affirmed today by the UN who now estimate 150 million deaths.

He seems to be more concerned about the ice, .....but at least there is concern.

Hey, its a move in the right direction !

In the 'millions may die from bird flu' topic...IJWT was rather less Mother Teresa-ish, saying...
If a truly "new" strain of human-transmissible flu virus hits, millions will die everywhere regardless. That ain't news.

Re-affirmed today by the UN who now estimate 150 million deaths.

He seems to be more concerned about the ice, .....but at least there is concern.

Hey, its a move in the right direction !

150 million was their high estimate....what was their low estimate? And what do these experts know anyway?....they probably think they could teach English without a degree in education too.....bastids!!!!

Climate change is cyclic - I'm afraid. We've seen much warmer avg mean tempertures long ago. However it doesnt mean we can't be environmentally sound to a point. Debate is far from over I'm afraid. :D

Yes "cyclical". I think so too. There's a lot of money to be made in predicting the end of the world, and some people love to hear it. Remember "The Year 2000 Problem"? I got 2 free trips to Australia because of that :o

Sitting at a pub at lunchtime in Spain today, I decided to test my reading skills on today's paper. There it was, the article about the Arctic icecap being "de-iced." They said the obvious melting started much earlier this year than ever before, which has been the general trend.

On portions of the coast of Alaska that were totally glaciated when discovered during the 19th century, you can now go inland for miles on the fiords.

Isn't the world still going through a warm-up from the last Ice Age, going through a short cycle of warming up, and suffering from the Greenhouse Effect? Two or three factors would synergize and cause rapid melting of icecaps and glaciers.

They should not rebuild New Orleans. :o

Sitting at a pub at lunchtime in Spain today, I decided to test my reading skills on today's paper.  There it was, the article about the Arctic icecap being "de-iced."  They said the obvious melting started much earlier this year than ever before, which has been the general trend.

On portions of the coast of Alaska that were totally glaciated when discovered during the 19th century, you can now go inland for miles on the fiords. 

Isn't the world still going through a warm-up from the last Ice Age, going through a short cycle of warming up, and suffering from the Greenhouse Effect?  Two or three factors would synergize and cause rapid melting of icecaps and glaciers.

They should not rebuild New Orleans. :o

I think that they should at least upgrade the zoning and the building code so that in every zone the foundations and the first floor of the building must be able to go through two months of flooding without deterioration structurally......but of course this will never happen. Maybe they should start a massive land fill project...spoils from dredging the Mississippi River and garbage.....hey...its already really toxic there....couldn't be much worse!!!!......only joking...or am I?

Climate change is cyclic - I'm afraid. We've seen much warmer avg mean tempertures long ago. However it doesnt mean we can't be environmentally sound to a point. Debate is far from over I'm afraid. :D

Yes "cyclical". I think so too. There's a lot of money to be made in predicting the end of the world, and some people love to hear it. Remember "The Year 2000 Problem"? I got 2 free trips to Australia because of that :D

I guess President Bush was right in not having us sign that totally unfair Kyoto protocol thingy.... :o

Yes he was. Blair has said kyoto is finished and he will not pursue building on it. So the euros will have to come up with some other plan to hogtie the US in order to be competitive. :o Criminee, China's economy grows at a rate of 8% to 12% a year. Now is the time for them to institute clean air and water standards. Why should they wait? When their economy slows down to 5% they will not sign anything. Kyoto was a big sucker deal with the US proposed as the lead sucker.

Thought I'd throw this in:

"And for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress."

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/mgs/newsroom/20050920a.html

It may very well be the sun is effecting both the earth and mars.  If humans are contributing to this global warming faze which the earth is naturally going through, imo, is it a significant amount?

Yep - too lazy to find the link but there was a group of scientists in Russia the other week who put their money where their mouth was and bet 10 000 dollars that the current warming is due to increased (or was it decreased) sun spot activity. Such is due to change next year and so we should be cooling off. The theory is supported by the above post.

Makes sense to me - I recall Victorian paintings of Londoners skating on the river Thames, something that has not been possible for about 100 years.

But the poisoning of the environment is another thing. We can measure growth hormones in fish, the effects of acid rain, and the oil culture fumes in the atmosphere. My only hope(s) come from this site:

http://freeenergynews.com/

(any Yankies not know what 'Victorian' means ?) :o

So I guess that all this silly talk of Global Warming are just the figments of the delusional imaginations of all those misguided Left-wing Liberal Tree-hugging Hippie Scientists, then... :o:D

So I guess that all this silly talk of Global Warming are just the figments of the delusional imaginations of all those misguided Left-wing Liberal Tree-hugging Hippie Scientists, then...  :D  :D

That's about it :o

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