Outside Analysis Of New Thai-Cambodian Fighting

[Microwave]

A Flare-Up of Fighting on the Thailand-Cambodia Border

AFP/AFP/Getty Images

Thai soldiers evacuate an injured soldier after a clash near the Thailand-Cambodia border on April 22

Summary

A long-standing border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has turned violent once again, the second flare-up since February in which rounds have been fired and soldiers killed. The two latest incidents (which occurred in different areas of the border) have resulted in at least 16 deaths and are the worst border clashes between the two countries in almost two decades. Intense mediation efforts by Indonesia, as current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, have made some progress in recent months, but little has been done to address the fundamental disagreement.

Analysis

On April 22, on a disputed hill along the Thai-Cambodian border near the ancient temples of Ta Krabey and Ta Moan Thom, Thai and Cambodian soldiers engaged in a firefight that left at least six soldiers dead and several others wounded. Both countries blamed each other for initiating the exchange of fire, which began just before 6 a.m. and lasted almost five hours.

In a letter sent by the Thai Foreign Ministry, Thailand accused Cambodian soldiers of trespassing on the disputed hill, which lies in Thailand's Surin province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province, claiming the troops were violating an existing bilateral agreement. Cambodia said the fighting started when Thai troops approached the two temples and has indicated it will file another protest with the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), in addition to one it lodged in February following an incident in another area of the border. According to the latest news reports, the situation appears to have calmed and an informal truce seems to be holding. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva also has called for two meetings to be held soon by the joint Thai-Cambodian General Border Committee and the Regional Border Committee.

This latest border incident comes after the clash in February near the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple in which at least 10 people were killed. The two recent border clashes have been the worst in nearly two decades. Since February, Indonesia, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has been facilitating negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia. Although a temporary cease-fire agreement was implemented under Indonesia's mediation, it never resolved the fundamental disagreements between the two sides over their historical border.

Following the February incident, Indonesia engaged in intense diplomatic effort with Thailand and Cambodia within the ASEAN framework to facilitate the cease-fire. ASEAN had long been reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of member states, which led to criticism of the regional bloc for its inability to resolve disagreements. One reason Indonesia has been willing to get involved in the Thai-Cambodian border dispute is to take advantage of its one-year ASEAN chairmanship to enhance the international status of the group. After Cambodia lodged its February compliant with the UNSC — a move by Phnom Penh to internationalize the issue after years of futile appeals to ASEAN — Indonesia took charge of the issue under U.N. pressure and made it an ASEAN matter. The ASEAN platform would also give Indonesia an opportunity to expand its influence within the region. In that context, the progress of its efforts to resolve the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia could be considered a test of Indonesia's leadership in the region.

Under Indonesia's mediation, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to the temporary cease-fire and to the deployment of civilian and unarmed military observers from Indonesia on both sides of the border to monitor the situation. They also agreed to participate in border negotiations to be held in Indonesia or in future ASEAN-chair countries. Despite these agreements, which have been interpreted largely as an Indonesian achievement, there has been no real step toward resolving the fundamental border dispute. Weeks after agreeing to the Indonesian-observer proposal, Thailand rejected it and its military refused to participate in border negotiations in Indonesia.

For Thailand, which has been insisting on a bilateral approach to addressing the border dispute and does not want third-party involvement, following through on the initial proposals was a non-starter. This was consistent with its previous pattern of behavior over the border dispute — accept the initial proposals, introduce a series of delays or legal considerations, then postpone or reject implementation of the agreements. Cambodia actually has an upper hand in the dispute: In 1962, the U.N. International Court of Justice ruled that the Preah Vihear temple belongs to Cambodia, though the border around the temple has never been completely demarcated. However, Cambodia is militarily weaker than Thailand in the contested areas and always pursues third-party involvement in the dispute so as not to be overwhelmed by force in those areas.

Mediating this dispute is a daunting challenge for Indonesia, which lacks the authority to force the issue as well as the pressing national prerogatives of the two parties in the dispute. The situation is also complicated by Thailand and Cambodia's internal situations. Thailand is facing elections, in May at the earliest, and the political situation is an uncertain one with the border dispute being a sticking point for various groups and factions which have been pressuring the government. With the Thai army growing increasingly critical of the Cambodians and Indonesians since the cease-fire, and with it effectively in control on the border, there could well be more flare-ups if the situation worsens. On the Cambodian side, nationalism is always a way to boost Prime Minister Hun Sen's leadership, and Cambodia is no doubt willing and ready to exploit a neighbor consumed by intense factional politics.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Microwave

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