Thai Army Flexes Muscles Ahead Of Election

[webfact]

Thai army flexes muscles ahead of election

by Kelly Macnamara

BANGKOK (AFP) - With elections looming, Thailand's army is putting on a show of strength that has added to uncertainty about whether the vote will actually go ahead in the politically divided nation, experts say.

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who is shortly expected to call an election to be held by early July, has insisted that a deadly border conflict between the Thai and Cambodian armies will not derail the poll.

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

"The army is more and more out of control and beholden to itself and itself alone."

Bangkok and Phnom Penh have blamed each other for starting the fighting, which has left at least 16 people dead and has caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee their homes.

Regardless of the exact origin of the latest clashes, some observers believe the conflict could boost support for Abhisit's Democrat Party, while also increasing the influence of the military.

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"It will be a win-win situation for the military and the government, because in this crisis they will show patriotism. The military has no intention to leave politics," he said.

Thailand remains deeply divided a year after opposition rallies by the "Red Shirt" movement, demanding snap elections, sparked violence which left more than 90 people dead in clashes between protesters and armed troops in Bangkok.

Many of the mainly rural, working class Reds are loyal to Thaksin, who was ousted as prime minister in a 2006 military coup.

The former telecoms tycoon lives in self-imposed exile overseas but is considered the de facto leader of the opposition Puea Thai party.

Thailand's army chief General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, a staunch royalist and critic of the Red Shirts, has pledged to abide by the results of what is expected to be a closely fought election.

But that has not dampened speculation about possible military intervention in a country that has seen 18 actual or attempted coups since 1932, when it became a constitutional monarchy.

"If the Democrats cannot cobble together a post-election coalition, technicalities to prevent Thaksin's Puea Thai from taking power are likely, including the potential of an outright military coup as last resort," said Thai political expert Thitinan Pongsudhirak.

The Reds view Abhisit's government as undemocratic because it came to power in a 2008 parliamentary vote with army backing, after a court ruling threw out the previous elected administration.

Thaksin is hailed by the Reds for his policies for the masses while in power, but he is seen by the ruling elite as corrupt and a threat to the revered monarchy.

Some top Red Shirts have also been accused of disloyalty to the crown.

On the instructions of its commander-in-chief, the military last month filed a complaint against three "Red Shirt" leaders for allegedly insulting the monarchy during rally speeches -- a serious charge in Thailand.

In remarks that appeared to be aimed mainly at the Red Shirt leaders, General Prayut later warned political figures to keep the royals out of the election debate, saying the army "will do its duty to protect the monarchy".

Thaksin, who lives abroad to avoid a jail term imposed in absentia for graft, has urged his many followers to vote for Puea Thai, and experts say Abhisit's party faces a tough poll battle.

"If it takes place, the election will be a huge gamble for Abhisit" and his political allies, said Thitinan, a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

"They seem on top but may actually have their backs against the wall."

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-05-02

[OZEMADE]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

[kutjebu]

Some persons call it crap,because it is the truth and they don't like that..Last week they mention it already in the Observer.

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

[rreddin]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

I was looking for some evidence of "the army flexing its muscles". What precisely is the show of strength - surely he does not mean the army is the aggressor in the border conflict? What else are they doing that I may have missed? Maybe the editor came to him and said "we have some empty space in today's edition - do me 1000 words about the army/election/red shirts/Thaksin".

[jayboy]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

The fact you appear not to have heard of Chris Baker is somewhat revealing.

Instead of ill informed abuse, it would be better if you identified the parts of the article you don't agree with and then provide reasoned analysis for your conclusions.

The political posturing and interference by General Prayuth is in my view beyond dispute, and I believe the article provides a fair summary of the current position.

[OZEMADE]

Some persons call it crap,because it is the truth and they don't like that..Last week they mention it already in the Observer.

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

Sorry I dont read the OBSERVER.

[OZEMADE]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

I was looking for some evidence of "the army flexing its muscles". What precisely is the show of strength - surely he does not mean the army is the aggressor in the border conflict? What else are they doing that I may have missed? Maybe the editor came to him and said "we have some empty space in today's edition - do me 1000 words about the army/election/red shirts/Thaksin".

I think thats exactly what the editor asked him to do, so he went back through old news clippings.

[antony77]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

The fact you appear not to have heard of Chris Baker is somewhat revealing.

Instead of ill informed abuse, it would be better if you identified the parts of the article you don't agree with and then provide reasoned analysis for your conclusions.

The political posturing and interference by General Prayuth is in my view beyond dispute, and I believe the article provides a fair summary of the current position.

Baker never mentions the fact that there are plenty of poor rural people in the south of Thailand and none of them support Taksin.

Takins return to Thailand would mean civil war and if the democrats cant form a government then the army must do something to stop Taksins return'

[OZEMADE]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

The fact you appear not to have heard of Chris Baker is somewhat revealing.

Instead of ill informed abuse, it would be better if you identified the parts of the article you don't agree with and then provide reasoned analysis for your conclusions.

The political posturing and interference by General Prayuth is in my view beyond dispute, and I believe the article provides a fair summary of the current position.

Not knowing Chris Baker is revealing? In what way.

The Border clashes were started over some fools giving the temple to the Cambodians that are on Thai land. What has this got to do with the elections and Thaksin and his political allies. This is going to put off the Parliamentary Polls?

The border/Temple dispute keeps the military in the political limelight? What has the border dispute got to do with the current politics. I was under the impression the military were involved in the border dispute some years ago.

[drdoom6996]

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

I completely agree. But be careful; now, not only do they write dribble without knowledge they speak before they think. Even our ASSistant PM does not trust foreigners. We are looking to move to another country after that statement. But the scariest part is "They Live Amongst Us"

[jayboy]

Not knowing Chris Baker is revealing? In what way.

The Border clashes were started over some fools giving the temple to the Cambodians that are on Thai land. What has this got to do with the elections and Thaksin and his political allies. This is going to put off the Parliamentary Polls?

The border/Temple dispute keeps the military in the political limelight? What has the border dispute got to do with the current politics. I was under the impression the military were involved in the border dispute some years ago.

Not really much I can help you with , having noted your reply, I'm afraid except perhaps advise you start reading up the background.

[rubl]

My source of information is of course the Robert Amsterdam site on Thailand. Always good for some sound bites, clips, 'solid' government bashing. Next I depends on k. Prompong as PTP spokesman and the lovable k. Jatuporn. With all that I don't need to think too much, k. Thaksin will do that for me

[jayboy]

Baker never mentions the fact that there are plenty of poor rural people in the south of Thailand and none of them support Taksin.

Takins return to Thailand would mean civil war and if the democrats cant form a government then the army must do something to stop Taksins return'

Why should he mention it? The principle is not in contention.Actually a small minority do support Thaksin in the South just as a larger minority do not in the North and North East.

As to your second sentence, I think it just needs to be noted.If there ever is a civil war in Thailand, historians will debate the responsibility of Thaksin on the one side and on the other those responsible for the military coup which ousted him.

[OZEMADE]

Not knowing Chris Baker is revealing? In what way.

The Border clashes were started over some fools giving the temple to the Cambodians that are on Thai land. What has this got to do with the elections and Thaksin and his political allies. This is going to put off the Parliamentary Polls?

The border/Temple dispute keeps the military in the political limelight? What has the border dispute got to do with the current politics. I was under the impression the military were involved in the border dispute some years ago.

Not really much I can help you with , having noted your reply, I'm afraid except perhaps advise you start reading up the background.

I didn't think you could, you just keep on reading Chris's reports.

[jayboy]

Not knowing Chris Baker is revealing? In what way.

The Border clashes were started over some fools giving the temple to the Cambodians that are on Thai land. What has this got to do with the elections and Thaksin and his political allies. This is going to put off the Parliamentary Polls?

The border/Temple dispute keeps the military in the political limelight? What has the border dispute got to do with the current politics. I was under the impression the military were involved in the border dispute some years ago.

Not really much I can help you with , having noted your reply, I'm afraid except perhaps advise you start reading up the background.

I didn't think you could, you just keep on reading Chris's reports.

Helpful hint: Chris Baker and his partner Acharn Pasuk are among the foremost authors of Thai history and politics.They were among the first to analyse and describe Thaksin's divisiveness and corruption.Neither writes what you describe as "reports."

I didn't respond to your main enquiry because it's impossible to know where to begin with such a *edit* statement as "what has the border dispute got to do with the current politics"?

Edited May 2, 2011 by Scott
Flame edited out/Scott

[hammered]

Things are going to get a lot nastier before they get better imho. The extremes on both sides are starting to control the agenda leaving those in the middle quiet and sidelined as absolutism rules. It is becoming a zero sum game.

[tigerbalm]

Nothing out of the ordinary with this article , have to agree with most if not all that was said.

[tragickingdom]

Students need to make very clear on the streets that Prayuth and friends can run but never hide. They should make clear that even when Prayuth is 90 he will faces the possibility to end up in jail, just like in Chili. Of course tha Thai army is busy trying to block the vote. Everybody who recently used the internet networks of CAT and TOT see that more websites are blocked than ever, that audio and video streams are blocked. That is fine but the army should know what the cost will be and that the new generation will hunt coup takers and human rights abusers down for the next 50 years.

[Roadman]

Students need to make very clear on the streets that Prayuth and friends can run but never hide. They should make clear that even when Prayuth is 90 he will faces the possibility to end up in jail, just like in Chili. Of course tha Thai army is busy trying to block the vote. Everybody who recently used the internet networks of CAT and TOT see that more websites are blocked than ever, that audio and video streams are blocked. That is fine but the army should know what the cost will be and that the new generation will hunt coup takers and human rights abusers down for the next 50 years.

"The new generation?" You are taking the proverbial p!ss. They are just as inept at accepting of the corruption and the garbage that goes with it just the same as their ancestors and the present corrupt thai society.

Edited May 2, 2011 by Roadman

[folium]

OK, Jayboy is being a little harsh, but to be honest comments like "what has the border dispute got to do with the current politics"?, are pretty staggering. It's like saying what's the connection between handing out computers to students and vote-buying?

If someone cannot make the connection between ridiculous, unnecessary border squabbles and attempts to influence/delay/cancel upcoming elections due to a fear of who might win, that person has to be a candidate for the George Bush Stunning Levels of Perception Award 2011.

[whybother]

OK, Jayboy is being a little harsh, but to be honest comments like "what has the border dispute got to do with the current politics"?, are pretty staggering. It's like saying what's the connection between handing out computers to students and vote-buying?

If someone cannot make the connection between ridiculous, unnecessary border squabbles and attempts to influence/delay/cancel upcoming elections due to a fear of who might win, that person has to be a candidate for the George Bush Stunning Levels of Perception Award 2011.

People see what people want to see.

Personally, I don't see how the current border dispute would help the Democrats. The yellow shirts say the army are not doing enough. The red shirts say the army are not listening to the government and are a law unto themselves. A lot of people in between don't like the idea of going to war over a "ridiculous, unnecessary border squabble".

Maybe some one can point out the advantages to the Democrats in this dispute?

Edited May 2, 2011 by whybother

[csolgosz]

OZEMADE, I suggest you change your name to OZEMADEBOGUN. As an academic myself, I am embarrassed by your aggressive, yet ill-educated comments, notably referring to people more informed than yourself as "fools". Anyone who has read up on Thai politics for some time will know the name of Chris Baker. The other thing is that ALL academics quote "other person (sic) literature" to justify their position. Well, having made my contribution to these most avoided blogs on Thailand by those who live here, over to the overseas farangs to retaliate...

Oh, by the way, ditch the Aussie flag profile pic will ya? It is embarrassing...

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.

Edited May 2, 2011 by csolgosz

[Scott]

Some rather personal remarks about other posters have been removed and replies to it have been edited or deleted.

Please stay on the topic and if you don't know anything about the subject, feel free to ask questions, but refrain from flaming the poster answering them.

[rubl]

OK, Jayboy is being a little harsh, but to be honest comments like "what has the border dispute got to do with the current politics"?, are pretty staggering. It's like saying what's the connection between handing out computers to students and vote-buying?

If someone cannot make the connection between ridiculous, unnecessary border squabbles and attempts to influence/delay/cancel upcoming elections due to a fear of who might win, that person has to be a candidate for the George Bush Stunning Levels of Perception Award 2011.

If someone automatically makes the connection between ridiculous ...

BTW with that ? at the end, should it be 'it's like "asking what's the connection ... vote- buying ?"'

Edited May 2, 2011 by rubl

[folium]

"If someone automatically makes the connection between ridiculous ..." at least they are thinking about possible connections rather than inserting head 2 feet under and wondering why it's so dark.

"BTW with that ? at the end, should it be 'it's like "asking what's the connection ... vote- buying ?"' Heaven forbid I should presume that a politician promising to dish out tablets (electronic form, rather than chemical form) is in any way trying to sway voters, but then again when are Thai voters ever swayed one way or the other by financial inducements? Not that most of them even have a clue who their "vote" has been cast for.

[rubl]

"If someone automatically makes the connection between ridiculous ..." at least they are thinking about possible connections rather than inserting head 2 feet under and wondering why it's so dark.

...

We're drifting a bit off topic here I'm afraid, but maybe a last remark on semantics will be granted

'automatically making a connection' may result in further thinking, but not necessarily. The 'automatic' part suggest a foregone conclusion, something about which there is no need anymore to think about. The 'obvious' which somehow always needs pointing out.

Now I don't want to suggest you should try this, but inserting your head a few feet under seems much more of a conscious action than 'automatically making a connection'

[stanley2550]

Some persons call it crap,because it is the truth and they don't like that..Last week they mention it already in the Observer.

My GOD, What fool wrote all of the above crap and he had the hide to say that this came from experts?

But experts say the fighting could play into the hands of Thailand's military-backed elites who want to prevent the political allies of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra taking power.

Chris WHO?

Some fear the border clashes could even be used as a reason to put off the parliamentary polls.

"There is an undercurrent of attempts to create a crisis that could be used for delaying, or delaying permanently, an election," said Thailand-based scholar and author Chris Baker.

And this from another EXPERT?

The dispute "gives the military an excellent opportunity to remain in the political limelight," said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Give me a break, I have never heard so much crap in my life from a Journalist and they pay him for this.