Champions League Group Stage Draw And.....

[MrRed]

Turkish champions Fenerbahce have been removed from the UEFA Champions League because of an ongoing match-fixing investigation in Turkey.

The Turkish Football Federation (TFF) confirmed the decision, which comes on the eve of the Champions League group stage draw in Monaco on Thursday.

According to a statement on the TFF website, Uefa wrote to the federation to demand Fenerbahce's withdrawal, threatening wider disciplinary action against the TFF should they fail to do so.

The letter was forwarded to Fenerbahce, who declined to withdraw.

"In the face of this development, on August 24 an extraordinary meeting of the board of directors was held to discuss the threat of the Turkish Football Federation being exposed to severe disciplinary sanctions if Fenerbahce took part in the UEFA Champions League this season, and it was decided to bar them from participating," the statement said.

Fenerbahce were crowned league champions last term, pipping Trabzonspor to the Super Lig title with a dramatic 4-3 win at Sivasspor on the final day.

The final standings remain official, but Fenerbahce president Aziz Yildirim is one of more than 30 people held in custody pending trial on the matter.

Uefa are expected to make an announcement later this evening, but as yet it is unclear how they will choose a team to replace Fenerbahce.

The lineup for the 2011/12 UEFA Champions League group stage will feature an impressive 11 previous winners of Europe's premier club competition as well as five teams making their debut in this phase.

Nine of the former champions were automatic entrants, a number which was subsequently swelled by the progress of FC Bayern München and SL Benfica through their respective play-off ties. That over a third of the 32 sides in Thursday's draw in Monaco, which takes place from 17.45CET, have lifted the European Cup contrasts with nine last season and ten in 2009/10.

FC Viktoria Plzeň − who accounted for FC København in the play-offs and are experiencing UEFA competition for only the third season − Manchester City FC, SSC Napoli, Trabzonspor AŞ and FC Oţelul Galaţi are preparing for their first group stage campaign. For Oţelul, UEFA Champions League football is a reward for the Romanian club winning their maiden Liga I title last term.

The draw will also feature eight clubs who are returning to Europe's top table after an absence of two seasons or more: FC Zenit St Petersburg, Bayer 04 Leverkusen, LOSC Lille Métropole, Borussia Dortmund, Villarreal CF, FC BATE Borisov, GNK Dinamo Zagreb and KRC Genk. Of those, Dinamo have endured the longest wait − 12 years.

In total there are clubs from 18 different national associations taking part in the group stage, with England and Spain the best represented with a quartet of teams. The table below, which splits the 32 sides into the four pots from which they will be drawn, illustrates the level of experience of each of the participants.

Club

RouteLast inYears*2010/11**Best***Pot 1

FC Barcelona

Holders / Champions, Spain

2010/1115WinnersWinners

Manchester United FC

Champions, England

2010/1116

Runners-up

WinnersChelsea FCRunners-up, England2010/119Quarter-finalsRunners-upFC Bayern MünchenThird place, Germany

2010/11

14

Round of 16

Winners

Arsenal FC

Fourth place, England

2010/11

13

Round of 16

Runners-up

Real Madrid CFRunners-up, Spain2010/11

15Semi-finals

Winners

FC Porto

Champions, Portugal2009/10

15UEL, winners

Winners

FC Internazionale MilanoRunners-up, Italy2010/1110Quarter-finals

Winners

Pot 2AC Milan

Champions, Italy2010/11

14

Round of 16WinnersOlympique Lyonnais

Third place, France

2010/11

11

Round of 16

Semi-finals

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

Champions, Ukraine

2010/11

6

Quarter-finals

Quarter-finals

Valencia CF

Third place, Spain

2010/11

7

Round of 16

Runners-up

SL Benfica

Runners-up, Portugal2010/116

UEL, semi-finalsWinners

Villarreal CF

Fourth place, Spain

2008/092

UEL, semi-finals

Semi-finals

PFC CSKA Moskva

Runners-up, Russia

2009/10

5

UEL, round of 16

Quarter-finals

Olympique de Marseille

Runners-up, France

2010/11

7

Round of 16

Winners

Pot 3FC Zenit St Petersburg

Champions, Russia

2008/09

1

UEL, round of 16

Group stage

AFC Ajax

Champions, Netherlands2010/119UEL, round of 16WinnersBayer 04 Leverkusen

Runners-up, Germany

2004/05

6

UEL, round of 16

Runners-up

Olympiacos FC

Champions, Greece

2009/10

12

UEL, third qualifying round

Quarter-finals

Manchester City FC

Third place, EnglandDebut0

UEL, round of 16

First round

LOSC Lille Métropole

Champions, France

2006/07

3UEL, round of 32

First knockout round

FC Basel 1893

Champions, Switzerland

2010/11

3UEL, round of 32

Second group stage

FC BATE Borisov

Champions, Belarus

2008/09

1

UEL, round of 32

Group stage

Pot 4Borussia Dortmund

Champions, Germany

2002/03

6

UEL, group stage

Winners

SSC Napoli

Third place, Italy

Debut

0

UEL, round of 32

Second round

GNK Dinamo Zagreb

Champions, Croatia

1999/20002

UEL, group stage

Group stage

APOEL FC

Champions, Cyprus2009/101UEL, play-offsGroup stage

Trabzonspor AŞRunners-up, Turkey****

Debut

0

UEL, play-offs

Second round

KRC GenkChampions, Belgium2002/031UEL, play-offsGroup stageFC Viktoria PlzeňChampions, Czech RepublicDebut0UEL, third qualifying roundN/A

FC Oţelul Galaţi

Champions, Romania

Debut

0N/A

N/A*Past group stage appearances not including 2011/12

**UEFA Champions League unless stated

***Includes pre-1992 European Champion Clubs' Cup

**** Trabzonspor replaced Fenerbahçe SK, who were withdrawn from the competition by the Turkish Football Federation (TFF)

UEL = UEFA Europa League

[carmine]

Seems a bit harsh to ban a team for match fixing in a competition run by FIFA. An organisation so corrupt its a benchmark for all wannabe corrupt organisations to aspire to.

[MrRed]

Funny how they was only asked to withdraw....then when saying they will not,it got put to the Turkish Fa to withdraw them!!!

Incredible.

[Abrak]

Actually if you look at the way they seed the CL, you will find that the entire competition is largely a fix to get the same Group of top teams to do well in the competition.

Take Arsenal for instance, they finished 4th in the league so they need to enter a play off in order to qualify for the Group stage. However the teams that enter the play-offs are seeded and so Arsenal is seeded and guaranteed to avoid the best teams that enter the play offs. So Arsenal is not going to have to take on Bayern and Udinese is about as difficult as it gets.

Now having won their 'easy' game to get to the Group stage, it gets even better for Arsenal because Arsenal are placed amongst the number 1 seeds in the Group stage which guarantees they dont have to face the best teams. On that basis it is pretty unlikely that Arsenal wont progress from the Group stage and if they actually match their seeding they will avoid the top clubs in the last 16. And by making it to the last 8 they will guarantee that they are number 1 seeded if they qualify the following year.

So arsenal are guaranteed an easy draw. Man City on the other hand, who beat Arsenal in the league, are seeded in the 3rd set of teams, so they are guaranteed a difficult draw. And it wouldnt have mattered if City had won the league last year they would still be amongst the 3rd seeds. So it is more of a 'fix' than a 'draw' but those are the rules. If it is any consolation to anyone it should be Spurs fans because taking part in the Europa counts very highly in the 'fix' so that if you do qualify for the CL again you will probably find yourself with a better 'draw'.

[trevorg]

Actually if you look at the way they seed the CL, you will find that the entire competition is largely a fix to get the same Group of top teams to do well in the competition.

Take Arsenal for instance, they finished 4th in the league so they need to enter a play off in order to qualify for the Group stage. However the teams that enter the play-offs are seeded and so Arsenal is seeded and guaranteed to avoid the best teams that enter the play offs. So Arsenal is not going to have to take on Bayern and Udinese is about as difficult as it gets.

Now having won their 'easy' game to get to the Group stage, it gets even better for Arsenal because Arsenal are placed amongst the number 1 seeds in the Group stage which guarantees they dont have to face the best teams. On that basis it is pretty unlikely that Arsenal wont progress from the Group stage and if they actually match their seeding they will avoid the top clubs in the last 16. And by making it to the last 8 they will guarantee that they are number 1 seeded if they qualify the following year.

So arsenal are guaranteed an easy draw. Man City on the other hand, who beat Arsenal in the league, are seeded in the 3rd set of teams, so they are guaranteed a difficult draw. And it wouldnt have mattered if City had won the league last year they would still be amongst the 3rd seeds. So it is more of a 'fix' than a 'draw' but those are the rules. If it is any consolation to anyone it should be Spurs fans because taking part in the Europa counts very highly in the 'fix' so that if you do qualify for the CL again you will probably find yourself with a better 'draw'.

So in terms of Europe (please clarify this season or next), Arsenal have it easy, Man City have it hard and Spurs have it the easiest (in a different competition)?

What your stats prove, is that you cannot predict a half, a game, a run (up or down), within a single league, to then attempt to predict that for the Champions League with 32 teams from 18 different leagues (using stats) is extremely risky!

However, I absolutely love your 'stat' posts - so please keep them coming! Half time on TrueVisions is disappointing so I rush to my computer to get my stats and punditry! Good work fella!

[MrRed]

Champions League group stage draw in full:

Group A:

Bayern Munich, Villarreal, Manchester City, Napoli

Group B:

Inter Milan, CSKA Moscow, Lille, Trabzonspor

Group C:

Manchester United, Benfica, Basel, Otelul Galati

Group D:

Real Madrid, Lyon, Ajax, Dinamo Zagreb

Group E:

Chelsea, Valencia, Bayer Leverkusen, Genk

Group F:

Arsenal, Marseille, Olympiakos, Borussia Dortmund

Group G:

Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit St Petersburg, APOEL Nicosia

Group H:

Barcelona, AC Milan, BATE Borisov, Viktoria Plzen

[Abrak]

So in terms of Europe (please clarify this season or next), Arsenal have it easy, Man City have it hard and Spurs have it the easiest (in a different competition)?

What your stats prove, is that you cannot predict a half, a game, a run (up or down), within a single league, to then attempt to predict that for the Champions League with 32 teams from 18 different leagues (using stats) is extremely risky!

However, I absolutely love your 'stat' posts - so please keep them coming! Half time on TrueVisions is disappointing so I rush to my computer to get my stats and punditry! Good work fella!

No it is not what I stated or implied. I simply stated that I know how the seeding process works which is based on a 'European coefficient' which is basically how an individual team performs in European competitions. Under more normal circumstances you would think that seeding would be reflected in the qualification process so that if you came top of the Premier League you would be seeded above the team that came 4th. This is not actually the case. (Maybe you dont understand the circular bias in the seeding process.)

The point about statistics is that they can only be used in combination with their 'significance'. So the very fact that I cannot predict a 'score' 'an individual result' the relevance of 'pass completion' in an individual game is actually the whole point because the 'standard deviation' is too high. When you have enough data points you are able to estimate likely outcomes within statistical parameters.

And look it is not 'extremely risky' to make the statement that Arsenal who are seeded first amongst the top teams so are 100% guaranteed not to meet the teams that are seeded first amongst the top teams is likely to have an 'easy draw' while Manchester City who are 100% guaranteed to meet a team that is seeded first will have a more 'difficult draw'.

Statistical analysis absolutely does not require any prediction and as people often remind me is incredibly boring. All 'you' are saying is that if I flip a coin I cannot predict whether it will be heads or tails (which tells me much more about your intelligence than it tells you about mine). And all 'I' am saying is that if you flip a coin enough times it will be heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time.

[trevorg]

So in terms of Europe (please clarify this season or next), Arsenal have it easy, Man City have it hard and Spurs have it the easiest (in a different competition)?

What your stats prove, is that you cannot predict a half, a game, a run (up or down), within a single league, to then attempt to predict that for the Champions League with 32 teams from 18 different leagues (using stats) is extremely risky!

However, I absolutely love your 'stat' posts - so please keep them coming! Half time on TrueVisions is disappointing so I rush to my computer to get my stats and punditry! Good work fella!

No it is not what I stated or implied. I simply stated that I know how the seeding process works which is based on a 'European coefficient' which is basically how an individual team performs in European competitions. Under more normal circumstances you would think that seeding would be reflected in the qualification process so that if you came top of the Premier League you would be seeded above the team that came 4th. This is not actually the case. (Maybe you dont understand the circular bias in the seeding process.)

The point about statistics is that they can only be used in combination with their 'significance'. So the very fact that I cannot predict a 'score' 'an individual result' the relevance of 'pass completion' in an individual game is actually the whole point because the 'standard deviation' is too high. When you have enough data points you are able to estimate likely outcomes within statistical parameters.

And look it is not 'extremely risky' to make the statement that Arsenal who are seeded first amongst the top teams so are 100% guaranteed not to meet the teams that are seeded first amongst the top teams is likely to have an 'easy draw' while Manchester City who are 100% guaranteed to meet a team that is seeded first will have a more 'difficult draw'.

Statistical analysis absolutely does not require any prediction and as people often remind me is incredibly boring. All 'you' are saying is that if I flip a coin I cannot predict whether it will be heads or tails (which tells me much more about your intelligence than it tells you about mine). And all 'I' am saying is that if you flip a coin enough times it will be heads 50% of the time and tails 50% of the time.

Abrak - you are a diamond! Can we all confirm some words please? You offer Stats (for Statistical facts), or a Stat for an individual! These are combined with signifiicance! OK what is the chance that Luka Modric and Jolean Lescott swap details of their hairdressers both before and after the match at the weekend?

I managed a Merit at Applied Statistics in my Engineering degree - I assume you were a Distinction student! Abrak, I'm appreciating your analysis and comments, just having some banter mate! And you should know more than me that the 50% heads or tails rules does not apply - ever! And if I have to go into Materials and mechanical Science and alloys with sweaty palms - that's one for a PM!

[smokie36]

^ Bah by Economics lectures were between 5-6pm four days a week. I never attended it once as it clashed with happy hour.

Even happier hour when I passed with flying colours innit. Life is about more than words and stats and the ins and outs....

[trevorg]

Nice one smokie! (Thanks)

I thought that was my point - I bigged up what Abrak does, enjoy it and told him that again! Abrak - I apologise, I haven't questioned your methods or analysis! No-one can predict the future, but can utilise the past to help! Good luck!

I have some 'emotional' conditions which affect my 'choices, I avoid Man U and Arsenal players and results! That's probably why I never win anything! For me, it's a sport, for fun, for time to relax! But I love the statistics and banter!

Just listening to Hey DJ (Bruce McLaren) and some other Funky breakdance stuff!

[Abrak]

Nice one smokie! (Thanks)

I thought that was my point - I bigged up what Abrak does, enjoy it and told him that again! Abrak - I apologise, I haven't questioned your methods or analysis! No-one can predict the future, but can utilise the past to help! Good luck!

I have some 'emotional' conditions which affect my 'choices, I avoid Man U and Arsenal players and results! That's probably why I never win anything! For me, it's a sport, for fun, for time to relax! But I love the statistics and banter!

Just listening to Hey DJ (Bruce McLaren) and some other Funky breakdance stuff!

No problem and very well put.

To a degree though you should realize that a) I do really enjoy stats and that if I use stats, they are only worth using if I am inherently fairly objective. Or else anyone can really use stats to try to support an opinion. So to an extent I naturally 'avoid emotional conditions affecting my choices' although I fully understand that football is mostly built that way. As a Spurs supporter put it the other day when 'I said well if you think that you could possibly be bias' and he basically replied 'as a Spurs supporter we are inherently bias.'

However from a philosophical approach, I like this comment from JW Henry in the Telegraph interview.....

By that I mean that eventually what was undervalued becomes more valued - sometimes to the point of being over-valued. It’s just a matter of how stubborn executives are with regard to preferring subjectivity over objectivity.

And I just fundamentally agree with his approach. It doesnt happen to mean he is correct. But I happen to agree with him that what is fundamentally impressive about the EPL is refereeing decisions (see interview).

[Abrak]

No-one can predict the future, but can utilise the past to help! Good luck!

And by the way while I understand your philosophy and am more along the lines 'that as I cannot predict the future, I only have the past to help.'

Consider Henry who is perhaps the world's leading 'trend investor' who is totally committed to the fact that you are 100% wrong (which of course doesnt make him right.)

They have an inherent bias against the notion that data or mechanical formulas can lead to success over time in markets. They have personally watched my success now for more than 20 years. Yet, if anything, they are now no more convinced than they were 20 years ago that I am going to be successful in the future using data over analysis.

So we are inherently both agreed on one thing 'No-one can predict the future'. I can promise you that Henry's conclusion that you 'can use the past' to 'help' was not based on 'luck'.

[trevorg]

Nice one smokie! (Thanks)

I thought that was my point - I bigged up what Abrak does, enjoy it and told him that again! Abrak - I apologise, I haven't questioned your methods or analysis! No-one can predict the future, but can utilise the past to help! Good luck!

I have some 'emotional' conditions which affect my 'choices, I avoid Man U and Arsenal players and results! That's probably why I never win anything! For me, it's a sport, for fun, for time to relax! But I love the statistics and banter!

Just listening to Hey DJ (Bruce McLaren) and some other Funky breakdance stuff!

No problem and very well put.

To a degree though you should realize that a) I do really enjoy stats and that if I use stats, they are only worth using if I am inherently fairly objective. Or else anyone can really use stats to try to support an opinion. So to an extent I naturally 'avoid emotional conditions affecting my choices' although I fully understand that football is mostly built that way. As a Spurs supporter put it the other day when 'I said well if you think that you could possibly be bias' and he basically replied 'as a Spurs supporter we are inherently bias.'

However from a philosophical approach, I like this comment from JW Henry in the Telegraph interview.....

By that I mean that eventually what was undervalued becomes more valued - sometimes to the point of being over-valued. It's just a matter of how stubborn executives are with regard to preferring subjectivity over objectivity.

And I just fundamentally agree with his approach. It doesnt happen to mean he is correct. But I happen to agree with him that what is fundamentally impressive about the EPL is refereeing decisions (see interview).

I agree wholeheartedly, and now backing up stats with quotes, understanding of subjectiveness and objectiveness and the resultant bias and how supporters are 'emotionally conditioned' (that's a self-quote)! Anyway, I'm missing F1 Q2 at Spa - must go! Abrak, please continue!

[trevorg]

No-one can predict the future, but can utilise the past to help! Good luck!

And by the way while I understand your philosophy and am more along the lines 'that as I cannot predict the future, I only have the past to help.'

Consider Henry who is perhaps the world's leading 'trend investor' who is totally committed to the fact that you are 100% wrong (which of course doesnt make him right.)

They have an inherent bias against the notion that data or mechanical formulas can lead to success over time in markets. They have personally watched my success now for more than 20 years. Yet, if anything, they are now no more convinced than they were 20 years ago that I am going to be successful in the future using data over analysis.

So we are inherently both agreed on one thing 'No-one can predict the future'. I can promise you that Henry's conclusion that you 'can use the past' to 'help' was not based on 'luck'.

Good luck - is a phrase used to wish people well, it does not imply that you need luck to do well. Would you prefer 'Hold tight' which is what I use with my 'muckers'? ;-)

Is that Thierry Henry or Terry Henry, both from Highbury, one is a french footballer and the other is a french footballer with two English names! Neither are relevant in the present or the future, but their relevance in the past may affect the future!

Abrak - do, what you do best, but do not attempt to believe that you can change peoples minds with your facts and stats! This is football, this is banter! Win and lose and draw, give and take, pleasure and pain! Shit coverage, no coverage, great coverage with shit commentators! Keep posting - but do not do yourself an injury as a result!