Relegation Thread.....

[Abrak]

I thought we should have a relegation thread to talk about some of the teams we dont usually mention.

In fact there are 14 teams with lower odds of being relegated than of making the top 4 - with Newcastle 25/1 to achieve either.

But there are 8 teams with relegation odds of 5/1 or less.

WBA 5/1

QPR 3/1

Norwich 15/8

Bolton 13/8

Wolves 7/4

Swansea 11/10

Blackburn 1/1

Wigan 1/2

The real shocker at the moment is Bolton. They are looking a real mess. It is not just the points as the bottom clubs are only a few points apart.

(1) Medium term positions in the league are very tightly correlated with goal difference. Bolton have let in 27 goals and have a goal difference of -14 - easily the worst in the league. Gary Cahill anyone.

(2) There is a very high deviation in their scores. They have lost 5-0 and won 4-0. Theoretically this is bad for the manager on the basis that it means they can be good but can be terrible (admittedly there seems to be a lot of this in the league this year.) But 5 straight home losses with an aggregate of 17-4 is pretty dire.

(3) I didnt wath the Swansea match and Bolton did lose a player later in the game. But apart from the score line, it looks as though Bolton simply didnt turn up. 31% possession compared to 69% for Swansea. And 231 completed passes (at 80%) compared to 617 (92%) for Swansea.

So Coyle, who has a massive reputation, could easily be gone before Christmas. And with matches against WBA, Everton and Stoke coming up, he probably wont last 3 more matches if they go against him. 27 goals against in 10 games, can Gary Cahill really be as good as everyone thinks he is?

The other big surprise this year could be that all three newly promoted teams stay up.

[smokie36]

West Brom and Bolton for me....both look terrible. I'm undecided on the third lucky candidate.

Just a shame I can't pick Wet Spam this year....

[tigerfish]

keep a close eye on Fulham.

have had a relatively easy start to the season as far as the sides that they have come up against and are yet to face any of the big guns, apart from city.

plus they are a great price with the bookies to go down.

Edited October 30, 2011 by tigerfish

[StevieH]

wigan look awful and the likable roberto martinez doesn't look like he knows how to get them out of the rut.

[fletchsmile]

For Bolton we were top after the first game

Then you have to remember 5 of the next 6 games were: ManC, Liv, ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal. No big surprise there, losing those. As for goal diff, don't forget ManC are banging them in for fun - Excellent game vs ManC v ManU by the way. Unfortunately we played ManU when they were just being lucky and everything going right for them eg 8-2 Arsenal, was probably more like 4-2.

After beating QPR, the only other good chance was Norwich. Unfortunately Klasnic "The Goal Machine" got himself sent off, so not only did we lose our in form goal machine (scored in all but one of the previous 4), we had a double whammy of being down to 10 men, and Klasnic was out for 3 games.

At Swansea we also had Ricardo Gardner sent off. The second offence was very minor and the ref looked embarrassed to send him off, but little choice given the rules of the game. That's also by the way, why our possession stats were so low.

So basically tough matches, plus indiscipline - 3 red cards to date. 2 in matches Swansea and Norwich we might otherwise have expected something.

Obviously being bottom knocked confidence. We also have one of the smallest squads in the league - having no money. So the red cards hit us doubly hard. Two of our best mid-fielders have long term injuries - Stuart Holden fouled by that dirty b*****d Johnny Evans who has put him out for over a season. (Ferguson should remember that when he complains about Kevin Davies). CY Lee - Korean star is also out until about March having broke his leg pre-season.

The other thing is Coyle sees this as a transition year, and has been experimenting. We got punished badly for trying to mix it with the big boys. Even dropped Kevin Davies recently! Ngog starting too?

Coyle has the full backing of the fans. He's very popular. The main risk is the media making all these stats and forgetting the context.

Anyway hopefully today will be a springboard back. 5-0 vs Stoke. Kevin Davies back. Klasnic had his first start since suspension. Muamba strengthened the midfield. So looked more like the usual Bolton today - apart from getting some early luck - we never usually get that Sods law we now need to wait 2 weeks for the next game

All things considered after everything that's come up and gone wrong, 3rd from bottom isn't too disastrous, although we'd prefer if we weren't. That's just one away from being out of the relegation zone, and hopefully we've had our worst patch

The hardest thing is that the tough start probably knocked confidence, at a time full of injuries and suspensions. Xmas and Jan will be tough again, as the top5 get repeated and I'm sure we'll get the same statisticans and pundits harping on. But hopefully we can pull thru - looks much better after today

Edited November 6, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

My picks:

Wigan - very kind to keep faith with the guy, but they don't seem to be doing much about things, and coming out with passion or being toughened up.

Blackburn - deserve it for sacking Big Sam so quickly - if they wanted to get rid they should have at least waited until end of the season and secured survival first. That showed lack of intelligence and understanding by the owners. New owners have their heads up their a***s, and have forgot you actually have the hard task of playing football and winning matches. Not just taking over and having aspirations. They also back themselves into a corner of having to get a manager quick, and have suffered the consequences. The fans really don't like him.

At least one of QPR, Norwich and Swansea will falter. Newly promoted sides often have good starts carried over from Euphoria and confidence of promotion. Plus takes other teams a while to suss them out. That said, rare that all 3 are doing Ok at the moment.

Cheers

F

[Devil]

1319967809[/url]' post='4808313']

West Brom and Bolton for me....both look terrible. I'm undecided on the third lucky candidate.

Just a shame I can't pick Wet Spam this year....

Where is young Singh just when you need him...

[smokie36]

West Brom and Bolton for me....both look terrible. I'm undecided on the third lucky candidate.

Just a shame I can't pick Wet Spam this year....

Where is young Singh just when you need him...

Enjoying it while I can Dev.....!

[MrRed]

For me it will be Wigan,Blackburn and i really hope Wolves because i can't stand that manager of their's.

[mrbojangles]

and i really hope Wolves because i can't stand that manager of their's.

Totally agree. He's an horrible man.

However, I would have thought a United fan would love him, due to him fielding a 6th string side against you a couple of years ago.

[Abrak]

Clash of the Titans tomorrow evening with Blackburn against Bolton.

A lot more at stake than the coveted position of leading the bottom of the table at Xmas. Kean's job is almost certainly on the line although he might lose it anyway. Coyle's job may or may not be safe partly because Bolton dont really have the 7m it would cost to get rid of him and his staff.

Bolton are a bit of a financial black hole for a small Premiership club and net debt has risen from 54m in 2008 to 105m currently. It is supported by an ex-Bolton tax exile but not a guy with a shed load of money. So they really need to stay up or risk imploding. Bolton's losses were 26m in 2011 and 35m in 2010. Turnover is around 55m.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Abrak

[MrRed]

They need Big Sam back

[smokie36]

They need Big Sam back

Looks like Big Sam is going the opposite direction....and we know what that means for this forum...

[Abrak]

They need Big Sam back

Yes they do. By 'they' I assume you mean both Bolton and Blackburn.

Possibly he should manage both clubs again at the same time. They could share the cost and save money.

It would make the Sky interview after Tuesday night's game quite amusing too.

[MrRed]

I still think Bolton will stay up they have had some problems but need to sort it out,they have done the Houdini trick many any times.

Experience will help them fight out of it.

Blackburn are just dire and a new manager soon could help them but i doubt it.

[Abrak]

I still think Bolton will stay up they have had some problems but need to sort it out,they have done the Houdini trick many any times.

Experience will help them fight out of it.

Blackburn are just dire and a new manager soon could help them but i doubt it.

Well only on one occasion over the last 20 years has the team that was bottom of the Premiership at Xmas, NOT been relegated. It was WBA in 2004-05 and is referred to as the great escape because 1) they only had 10 points and a goal difference of -21 at Xmas 2) they were bottom of the League still at the last match of the season and they escaped relegation 3) with only 34 points, goal difference -25, which is about the fewest points that a team has not been relegated with.

The advantage that Blackburn have is that I can see Venky's appointing a new manager and then giving him some money to spend. Bolton have been in a spiralling debt death cycle for a couple of seasons. I think they will stick with Coyle until his contract is up at the end of the season and I wouldnt be surprised if when they sell Cahill they are unable to spend the proceeds.

[ThaiPauly]

Bolton. The board is less likely to sack OC because he is a former player "one of their own" so to speak. But there are rumbles coming out of the dressing room that it is not a happy place. They only have one decent striker ,Davies, but he never gets more than 10 goals a year and he is well passed his prime now.

Wigan....Martinez turned down the opportunity to go to Villa ,so the chairman won't do anything hasty because of his loyalty, and anyway Wigan are always hanging around the bottom three every year and always will be...unless the go down.The draw this Chelsea maybe a kickstart for them.

Blackburn. Steve Keane is a nice bloke, my son knows him because he used to work with him at Reading, where Keane was a GROUNDSMAN 10 years or so ago. Blackburn do have some half decent players, more than Bolton do, but Keane was appointed "on the cheap" IMHO, not because of his management skills which are virtually non-existant, I find it hard to reconcile that someone who has never managed a club before should get a Premier League job, so I am not at all surprised they are struggling. They made a massive mistake sacking Big Sam and should now grovel to Mark Hughes to return and rescue them, otherwise I cant see them getting out of the relegation zone.

QPR are the other team I see that will struggle to stay up.

Rangers have the worst attack in the league and cannot seem to win at home, and are getting worse by the week. Big signing SWP has yet to score and he was brought in to score goals. Boothroyd is out of his depth in this division, Tarabat who was brilliant last year can't even get in the side. 19 goals last year, not one this. He will go in the transfer window.DJ Campbell, not a prem player, reminds me of Beckford who could not cut it at Everton. Helgeson is their only decent striker, and with Barton as their captain, well that just about says why they are relegation fodder.

Wolves..whoever knows whats happening with them, they will be in the mix , but I feel they will get out by the skin of their teeth as usual

If I had to pick 3 it would be Bolton, QPR and Wigan, not Wigan though if Blackburn keep Keane, it will be Rovers that go

But then what do I know? I am second bottom of the prediction table so this post is more than likely a load of <deleted>

[fletchsmile]

Clash of the Titans tomorrow evening with Blackburn against Bolton.

A lot more at stake than the coveted position of leading the bottom of the table at Xmas. Kean's job is almost certainly on the line although he might lose it anyway. Coyle's job may or may not be safe partly because Bolton dont really have the 7m it would cost to get rid of him and his staff.

Bolton are a bit of a financial black hole for a small Premiership club and net debt has risen from 54m in 2008 to 105m currently. It is supported by an ex-Bolton tax exile but not a guy with a shed load of money. So they really need to stay up or risk imploding. Bolton's losses were 26m in 2011 and 35m in 2010. Turnover is around 55m.

... And won by Bolton Massive win

[fletchsmile]

I still think Bolton will stay up they have had some problems but need to sort it out,they have done the Houdini trick many any times.

Experience will help them fight out of it.

Blackburn are just dire and a new manager soon could help them but i doubt it.

Love the optimism. Hope you're right My worry is the mid-field though. There's a distinct lack of fight and skill in it.

Well only on one occasion over the last 20 years has the team that was bottom of the Premiership at Xmas, NOT been relegated. It was WBA in 2004-05 and is referred to as the great escape because 1) they only had 10 points and a goal difference of -21 at Xmas 2) they were bottom of the League still at the last match of the season and they escaped relegation 3) with only 34 points, goal difference -25, which is about the fewest points that a team has not been relegated with.

The advantage that Blackburn have is that I can see Venky's appointing a new manager and then giving him some money to spend. Bolton have been in a spiralling debt death cycle for a couple of seasons. I think they will stick with Coyle until his contract is up at the end of the season and I wouldnt be surprised if when they sell Cahill they are unable to spend the proceeds.

Yes that Xmas stat has been on every Bolton fan's mind. Last night's win was crucial.

By by the time Venky's bring someone in it will hopefully be too late to turn them around. Som nam na for sacking Big Sam.

Bolton. The board is less likely to sack OC because he is a former player "one of their own" so to speak. But there are rumbles coming out of the dressing room that it is not a happy place. They only have one decent striker ,Davies, but he never gets more than 10 goals a year and he is well passed his prime now.

.....

Would be very surprised if we sack Owen Coyle. He's very well liked by the fans, as well as Gartside the chairman. One of our own.

The big problem we have is lack of money and no midfield.

Kevin Davies is having a poor season by his standards, but hardly a surprise as he's getting on and has been a loyal servant for many years. Never prolific, but his work-rate was unquestionable - like having an extra midfielder and an extra defender

Klasnic is having a good season. 7 goals in 11 games where he's played more than 70 mins. No wonder we've nicknamed him "the goal machine" (by Bolton's standard at least).

For some reason a lot of people (not Bolton fans I'd add) seem to think we're missing donkey Elmander. He had a good start where he scored 6 in 11 games last season, but then was crap for the rest of the season, adding only 3 more. His total tally was something like 18 goals in 90+ games for the club. Abysmal, 1 in 5. Glad to see the back of him. Signed by the worst manager we've had in recent times and the most unpopular too - Gary Mugson - never went to a single fans' meeting. For a club with no money like Bolton, what a waste of money. Totalling about 10mio = highest fee ever + for a donkey + signed by Mugson = great shame the money was never available for the great managers we've had like Coyle and Big Sam.

Most importantly: A VERY HAPPY XMAS TO EVERYONE - Particularly as we won't be bottom now on Xmas day

Edited December 21, 2011 by fletchsmile

[Abrak]

Clash of the Titans tomorrow evening with Blackburn against Bolton.

A lot more at stake than the coveted position of leading the bottom of the table at Xmas. Kean's job is almost certainly on the line although he might lose it anyway. Coyle's job may or may not be safe partly because Bolton dont really have the 7m it would cost to get rid of him and his staff.

Bolton are a bit of a financial black hole for a small Premiership club and net debt has risen from 54m in 2008 to 105m currently. It is supported by an ex-Bolton tax exile but not a guy with a shed load of money. So they really need to stay up or risk imploding. Bolton's losses were 26m in 2011 and 35m in 2010. Turnover is around 55m.

... And won by Bolton Massive win

And well deserved too. Bolton could easily have had two more. Dropping Davies worked out well.

Getting off the bottom before Xmas is a big boost. One thing I think that will happen this year is that with the top 6 scoring far more points than usual, the bottom 6 will score far less than usual. In 09/10 when City were 5th with 67 and Liverpool 7th with 63, you could have avoided relegation with 31 points while last season you went down with 39.

[fletchsmile]

And well deserved too. Bolton could easily have had two more. Dropping Davies worked out well.

Getting off the bottom before Xmas is a big boost. One thing I think that will happen this year is that with the top 6 scoring far more points than usual, the bottom 6 will score far less than usual. In 09/10 when City were 5th with 67 and Liverpool 7th with 63, you could have avoided relegation with 31 points while last season you went down with 39.

I think you're right that this season there'll be a team or two avoiding relegation on low points. I see it as usually a point a game and you're borderline. This year 5 teams are on less than that, and even up to 10th place Villas have only 19 from 16 games - just above.

The one positive for Bolton this season, is they've managed to score goals. With a bit more protection in front of the defence hopefully we can stop conceding so many

[Abrak]

BTW dont you think that Kean saying that he would be '100% shocked' if the Venky's sacked him after his loss to Bolton last night, merely shows that he couldnt manage his way out of a wet brown paper bag.

[ThaiPauly]

BTW dont you think that Kean saying that he would be '100% shocked' if the Venky's sacked him after his loss to Bolton last night, merely shows that he couldnt manage his way out of a wet brown paper bag.

Maybe the Venky's can't afford the compensation

That's probably why he says he would be "shocked' to be sacked.

I really do feel sorry for the guy, I watched the interview he did after the game and he seems deluded, saying that Blackburn are only in this position because they have injuries...I thought everybody has injuries and they should not be used to disguise failure He really has been "over-promoted" and I think that he is losing the plot. If he stays then Rovers can really kiss goodbye the the Premiership, but he will probably be a better manager of a championship team, or he could check out the job vacancies in "Today's Groundsman"

[Abrak]

BTW dont you think that Kean saying that he would be '100% shocked' if the Venky's sacked him after his loss to Bolton last night, merely shows that he couldnt manage his way out of a wet brown paper bag.

Maybe the Venky's can't afford the compensation

That's probably why he says he would be "shocked' to be sacked.

I really do feel sorry for the guy, I watched the interview he did after the game and he seems deluded, saying that Blackburn are only in this position because they have injuries...I thought everybody has injuries and they should not be used to disguise failure He really has been "over-promoted" and I think that he is losing the plot. If he stays then Rovers can really kiss goodbye the the Premiership, but he will probably be a better manager of a championship team, or he could check out the job vacancies in "Today's Groundsman"

Yes fair point.

You have to feel pretty sorry for Blackburn supporters. The Venky's have bought them but have shown no inclination to put money into the club. Barclays are threatening to pull their overdraft. The CEO and MD have both walked out and havent been replaced. The manager wasnt accepted in the first place and has proven useless.

The other explanation for Kean still to be around is that they cant find anyone to take the job. Clearly anyone sensible would only become manager if he was promised transfer funds in January. Meanwhile come January, Hoilett will certainly move elsewhere and it wouldnt be a big surprise to see an offer come in for Yakubu.

[smokie36]

Bolton. The board is less likely to sack OC because he is a former player "one of their own" so to speak. But there are rumbles coming out of the dressing room that it is not a happy place. They only have one decent striker ,Davies, but he never gets more than 10 goals a year and he is well passed his prime now.

Wigan....Martinez turned down the opportunity to go to Villa ,so the chairman won't do anything hasty because of his loyalty, and anyway Wigan are always hanging around the bottom three every year and always will be...unless the go down.The draw this Chelsea maybe a kickstart for them.

Blackburn. Steve Keane is a nice bloke, my son knows him because he used to work with him at Reading, where Keane was a GROUNDSMAN 10 years or so ago. Blackburn do have some half decent players, more than Bolton do, but Keane was appointed "on the cheap" IMHO, not because of his management skills which are virtually non-existant, I find it hard to reconcile that someone who has never managed a club before should get a Premier League job, so I am not at all surprised they are struggling. They made a massive mistake sacking Big Sam and should now grovel to Mark Hughes to return and rescue them, otherwise I cant see them getting out of the relegation zone.

QPR are the other team I see that will struggle to stay up.

Rangers have the worst attack in the league and cannot seem to win at home, and are getting worse by the week. Big signing SWP has yet to score and he was brought in to score goals. Boothroyd is out of his depth in this division, Tarabat who was brilliant last year can't even get in the side. 19 goals last year, not one this. He will go in the transfer window.DJ Campbell, not a prem player, reminds me of Beckford who could not cut it at Everton. Helgeson is their only decent striker, and with Barton as their captain, well that just about says why they are relegation fodder.

Wolves..whoever knows whats happening with them, they will be in the mix , but I feel they will get out by the skin of their teeth as usual

If I had to pick 3 it would be Bolton, QPR and Wigan, not Wigan though if Blackburn keep Keane, it will be Rovers that go

But then what do I know? I am second bottom of the prediction table so this post is more than likely a load of <deleted>

You have a post on the first page of the Arsenal Thread stating they will soon win a trophy. 2007 or thereabouts.

[ThaiPauly]

Bolton. The board is less likely to sack OC because he is a former player "one of their own" so to speak. But there are rumbles coming out of the dressing room that it is not a happy place. They only have one decent striker ,Davies, but he never gets more than 10 goals a year and he is well passed his prime now.

Wigan....Martinez turned down the opportunity to go to Villa ,so the chairman won't do anything hasty because of his loyalty, and anyway Wigan are always hanging around the bottom three every year and always will be...unless the go down.The draw this Chelsea maybe a kickstart for them.

Blackburn. Steve Keane is a nice bloke, my son knows him because he used to work with him at Reading, where Keane was a GROUNDSMAN 10 years or so ago. Blackburn do have some half decent players, more than Bolton do, but Keane was appointed "on the cheap" IMHO, not because of his management skills which are virtually non-existant, I find it hard to reconcile that someone who has never managed a club before should get a Premier League job, so I am not at all surprised they are struggling. They made a massive mistake sacking Big Sam and should now grovel to Mark Hughes to return and rescue them, otherwise I cant see them getting out of the relegation zone.

QPR are the other team I see that will struggle to stay up.

Rangers have the worst attack in the league and cannot seem to win at home, and are getting worse by the week. Big signing SWP has yet to score and he was brought in to score goals. Boothroyd is out of his depth in this division, Tarabat who was brilliant last year can't even get in the side. 19 goals last year, not one this. He will go in the transfer window.DJ Campbell, not a prem player, reminds me of Beckford who could not cut it at Everton. Helgeson is their only decent striker, and with Barton as their captain, well that just about says why they are relegation fodder.

Wolves..whoever knows whats happening with them, they will be in the mix , but I feel they will get out by the skin of their teeth as usual

If I had to pick 3 it would be Bolton, QPR and Wigan, not Wigan though if Blackburn keep Keane, it will be Rovers that go

But then what do I know? I am second bottom of the prediction table so this post is more than likely a load of <deleted>

You have a post on the first page of the Arsenal Thread stating they will soon win a trophy. 2007 or thereabouts.

Yeah, as I said in the post you quoted, I really am a piss poor predictor. But thanks for pointing that out

[smokie36]

Bolton. The board is less likely to sack OC because he is a former player "one of their own" so to speak. But there are rumbles coming out of the dressing room that it is not a happy place. They only have one decent striker ,Davies, but he never gets more than 10 goals a year and he is well passed his prime now.

Wigan....Martinez turned down the opportunity to go to Villa ,so the chairman won't do anything hasty because of his loyalty, and anyway Wigan are always hanging around the bottom three every year and always will be...unless the go down.The draw this Chelsea maybe a kickstart for them.

Blackburn. Steve Keane is a nice bloke, my son knows him because he used to work with him at Reading, where Keane was a GROUNDSMAN 10 years or so ago. Blackburn do have some half decent players, more than Bolton do, but Keane was appointed "on the cheap" IMHO, not because of his management skills which are virtually non-existant, I find it hard to reconcile that someone who has never managed a club before should get a Premier League job, so I am not at all surprised they are struggling. They made a massive mistake sacking Big Sam and should now grovel to Mark Hughes to return and rescue them, otherwise I cant see them getting out of the relegation zone.

QPR are the other team I see that will struggle to stay up.

Rangers have the worst attack in the league and cannot seem to win at home, and are getting worse by the week. Big signing SWP has yet to score and he was brought in to score goals. Boothroyd is out of his depth in this division, Tarabat who was brilliant last year can't even get in the side. 19 goals last year, not one this. He will go in the transfer window.DJ Campbell, not a prem player, reminds me of Beckford who could not cut it at Everton. Helgeson is their only decent striker, and with Barton as their captain, well that just about says why they are relegation fodder.

Wolves..whoever knows whats happening with them, they will be in the mix , but I feel they will get out by the skin of their teeth as usual

If I had to pick 3 it would be Bolton, QPR and Wigan, not Wigan though if Blackburn keep Keane, it will be Rovers that go

But then what do I know? I am second bottom of the prediction table so this post is more than likely a load of <deleted>

You have a post on the first page of the Arsenal Thread stating they will soon win a trophy. 2007 or thereabouts.

Yeah, as I said in the post you quoted, I really am a piss poor predictor. But thanks for pointing that out

I only spotted it this morning what with the new format I got a tad lost. Anyway thanks for making me smile!

[Travel2003]

Blackburn - deserve it for sacking Big Sam so quickly - if they wanted to get rid they should have at least waited until end of the season and secured survival first. That showed lack of intelligence and understanding by the owners. New owners have their heads up their a***s, and have forgot you actually have the hard task of playing football and winning matches. Not just taking over and having aspirations. They also back themselves into a corner of having to get a manager quick, and have suffered the consequences. The fans really don't like him.

100% agree.

Didn't Blackburn do fairly well with Big Sam?

Interesting to see how the "fans" are counter-productive, and how they basically harass from the stands.

This in spite of almost all the other managers saying Keane is actually doing a good job, but only need some support from the stands.

Maybe the "fans" should go after the Indians instead.

Sorry, I hope the club crash and burn.

[Abrak]

My feeling is this has now narrowed itself down to 5 teams - Bolton, Wigan, Blackburn, QPR and Wolves. I think that QPR will probably buy themselves out of trouble in the January window which will leave it down to 4.

Choosing the one to miss the championship bus is pretty difficult.

[MrRed]

You have to congratulate Wigan and Martinez for there outstanding month.