Asean +6, New Cars, And No Tariffs In 2015

[richard10365]

I've been studying ASEAN in my business classes at Payap University and wondering what will happen in 2015 when the elimination of tariffs occurs in 2015. Specifically with new cars because tariff rates for cars is about 100%. Which, to me, means the price of new cars will drop 50% in accordance to the ASEAN policy.

If this is true, people who at present who cannot afford a car, can buy a car and people who want new or better cars can upgrade. Perhaps the price of a new car is not the issue but rather what this will do to traffic. Tens of thousands of new cars will crowd the highways and soi's of Thailand.

Traffic in Chiang Mai is crazy now because of the flood. What will traffic be like if a large group of motorcycle drivers upgrade to cars. Is the flood induced highway madness that we see in Chiang Mai indicative of the future of commuter life in Thailand?

What do you think?

Edited November 11, 2011 by richard10365

[Soutpeel]

Mate...you will need a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen in 2015, nobody know..

If the Mayans are correct....we are all scr*wed in Dec 2012 anyway...so dont worry be happy..

[yannic]

Richard, I doubt that cars are getting cheaper, at least not the locally assembled cars. Cars which get cheaper are the imported ones fom ASEAN, so don't worry there won't be more cars on the streets due to ASEAN 2015.

[PattayaParent]

I don't think it will make much of a difference to Thailand.

But it could make a BIG diffeence to Viet Nam, Laos, Kampuchea.

[Derifo]

We were all excited sometime ago when tariff on imported liquor from ASEAN was supposed to have been removed, but nothing actually happened. It didn't make any difference.

[givenall]

Mate...you will need a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen in 2015, nobody know..

If the Mayans are correct....we are all scr*wed in Dec 2012 anyway...so dont worry be happy..

See what happened in Euro Zone, i would thing you get water down agreement ifany

[jamora]

I don't think cars prices will change. Domestically produced cars are already fairly cheap, and when the tariff goes down on imported cars, it will probably just be replaced by a sales tax. If you look at the free market in EU, some countries still have almost 3 times more expensive cars than other EU countries (such as Denmark vs. Germany) although there are no import tariffs. WTO will probably complain as a separate sales tax on imported products vs. domestic products is illegal according to the GAAT agreement, but there are multiple ways to get around that. Thailand could use the articles about infant industries, special important industries and regional trade agreements. The latter will however mean that they will have to lower prices for ASEAN produced cars (which in reality only includes Proton and a few cheap Toyota models made in Indonesia).

Edited November 11, 2011 by jamora

[richard10365]

I think you guys are right. In theory, the agreement sounds like a good deal for consumers but what actually happens in 2015 may be another story. I think the ASEAN agreement is a double edged sword. In someways its good but in other ways I think its going to hit Thailand like a storm. I think most Thai people don't even know it's coming.

[aussiebebe]

You should consider consumer issues like status and prestige. The Tata Nano has sold only around 130,000 units despite predictions that it would clog Indian roads by the million. Status is even more critical to Thai consumers and I don't think that lower prices will see Thai's flock to Malaysian Protons any time soon.

[richard10365]

The ASEAN +3 agreement includes China, Japan, and Korea. Japan and Korea definitely have status and prestige when it comes to their automobiles. I think if their car prices drop to half because of no tariff then there is a chance there will be more cars on the road. I am holding off on buying a new car until I see what happens.

[khaan]

" Traffic in Chiang Mai is crazy now because of the flood. What will traffic be like if a large group of motorcycle drivers upgrade to cars. Is the flood induced highway madness that we see in Chiang Mai indicative of the future of commuter life in Thailand?

What do you think?"

this must be the understatement of the year

in fact the traffic along Huay Kaew Road this morning was so bad that there is without doubt only one way to travel

if you want to get somewhere quickly and that is a good old-fashioned bicycle.

So many cars drive close to the curb when they are approaching a junction that even the motorbikes cannot get past

so with a bicycle you simply dismount and lift the bicycle.

The roads are clearly inadequate and they just don't manage the situation well. In fact I see parallel inadequacies

in poor water management which led to the floods in Bangkok to poor traffic management which will lead to ever-increasing congestion

Edited November 12, 2011 by khaan