Political Predictions

[John K]

Living in Thailand has become a front row seat to the political happening here. Leaving Thai politics to the Thais is all we can do. However in recent months and weeks non Thais are being effected by the increasing restriction being imposed by the Thai Government.

A few examples include blocked Internet sites, limiting the hours of tourist related venues, attempts to force morality and other choices that the government has little or no business in. Growing anti government political rallies and the issues in the south have seemed to have brought this pot to a near boil if not already. The frequency of the events is increasing from what it was at the start of the year until now.

The PM seems to be alienating one group at a time by silencing his critics and controlling the media. The underlying reason seems to be to get and keep total control of the country while attempting to make it appear to be something else.

Recent reports in the papers have even made use of the word coup in Their reporting. Words like that suggest there is excessive political disagreement behind the scenes that we are not aware of.

The question is, what are your predictions in both the long and the short term as how will x-pats be affected as well as tourists, and local business? Also your predicted outcome of this “political crisis.” Feel free to include how things have effected you.

[ratcatcher]

I think interesting times lie ahead in The Kingdom for visitors and expats. We are a minority and relatively unimportant. P.M. Thaksin is under a real threat as finally someone, Sondhi Limthong-kul ,with the intestinal fortitude, financial backing and inside knowledge has stood up to him. Thaksin meanwhile flounders around by throwing ever larger law suits against anyone who criticizes him or his cronies called the TRT. Talk about a Boy Called Sue!

The shortsightedness of the Thai Rek Thai party is amazing. What this country needs is something along the lines of That Was The Week That Was or TW3 where David Frost and other wits of the time teased the Labour party and the Conservatives in '60's Britain. Monty Python would have a field day here.

The Ministry of Silly Talks, Zoo Restaurants serving endangered species,The National Counter Corruption Commission (NCC) filled with questionable dark Influencers,The Auditor General Cha Cha, Wattana's Wonderful World of Fresh Ideas,(Wattanearth will he think of next,) Soft Openings of Airports and wait for it , Siam Paragon which won't be finished by Christmas.

Siam Paragon delays grand opening

Published on August 10, 2005

The heads of luxury mall operator Siam Paragon Development said yesterday the opening of its 700,000-square metre retail complex would be delayed by a month. Vice chairman Supaluck (LOTSALUCK)Umpujh said the company had decided to put back Siam Paragon’s opening date from November 1 to December 1

.

If you ride the Skytrain,take a good look. Mass panic or what?

Anyway 2006 should be another fascinating year here in Fantasyland, filled with lies and stories of corruption I don't think the lives of foreigners will be too badly affected. All of the above will be made insignificant by the impending celebrations of His Majesty The King's 60th anniversary as the longest reigning monarch in the world. God Save The King, God Save Thailand.

Edited November 26, 2005 by ratcatcher

[The_Other_Mac]

You and I live in a different world How have the recent political murmurs affected me? Not at all. I don't frequent bars, but from my friends I gather that the practical situation is that the the rules and enforcement keep varying, just as they've always done. Blocked internet sites? I vaguely remember one of the Geocities-type groups being blocked en-masse once, but that got sorted out. Never encountered a blocked site since then, and I do read online a lot. Forced morality? Well I'm not a paedophile.... I believe the red-light districts continue to operate as normal.

Growing anti-govt. rallies sponsored by wealthy businessmen with competing interests? Yes, it's sad that a naive fraction of the public is being manipulated again. Still, the fact that they continue to take place is proof that the leading party has neither 100% power, nor 100% media control.

The South? It has been linked to almost everything in the last few years. Ethnic tension and terrorism have been a fact of life for most countries since, well, forever.

The frequency of events seems, to me, to be mostly linked to the end of the wet season being a good time to organise demonstrations. The controversial issues being brought up now actually occured quite a while ago.

As to what's really going on, I don't know, and I suspect that very very few people do. One interesting hint is this page explaining factions within Thai Rak Thai. If you've looked at Thai political history, you'll recognise a lot of names.

[John K]

P.M. Thaksin is under a real threat as finally someone, Sondhi Limthong-kul ,with the intestinal fortitude, financial backing and inside knowledge has stood up to him.

I agree with all that you say about the threat to the PM. I am sure people are getting tired when he tells them what to think. We each take notice of different things. For me the most troubling is not knowing and the inability to get accurate information in the kingdom. It has the effect of rendering many businesses impotent by not having information to make sound business decisions. It also does the same to personal decisions. Forced morality comes in many flavors, not only related to sex. The sale of alcohol is one example. I feel the sex trade prospers because the government can’t adequately provide for the poor because so much money is diverted by corruption. The cancer that is corruption appears to have become a raging wildfire. Ultimately if untreated cancer will eventually kill the host. The question is what will happen when the host dies, and what will fill the void? I hope the king will take a bit more active stand for the sake of everyone in his kingdom. His wisdom and caring about his people makes Him stand far above many world leaders including the USA.

[chownah]

All of the 'I will not resign' and 'there will be no coup' media announcements seem to have come from nowhere....there is no apparant reason why these announcements were made...there is no immediate threat to the PM or his gov't.......BUT.......if he can make people believe that these things are happening then he could justify even more restrictions on freedoms since 'law and order' are being threatened.

I think this talk is just some propaganda to set the public up for more restrictions of freedoms.

[John K]

Perhaps true, but what about the alleged life threat I am reading in the nation today. It must have hit a nerve for that to be. You would never hear that in the states! Anger fear, sounds like a cornered animal to me.

[opothai]

very relavent and topical

most of what you boys have said leaves little for me to add apart from toxin needs to wake up and look to the people for what they want after all he is thier servant and they are not his.

he has been treating the people that elected him like children and if he continues they will throw a tantrum

how big the tantrum will be, who knows

[britmaveric]

Same as it ever was - if not fearless leader than some other clown.

[seonai]

have any of you ever listened to academics at Thammasat University?

[John K]

have any of you ever listened to academics at Thammasat University?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Send a link.

[Thaiquila]

I think it is pretty clear there is going to be some kind of political earthquake whether or not Thaksin makes it to the end of his term.

[Johpa]

The sky is falling,...the sky is falling.

Well not quite yet. Thaksin puts only a slightly new spin on things as he controls a slightly newer clique within the old boys network. And just like in most countries, especially the US, politics is about which clique within the old boys network will get the biggest piece of the pie. If one group eats too much, as Toxin may have done, there can be some collective indigestion.

But the doggy doo doo will not hit the fan until the kan song kheun sawaan

occurs and the one social glue that holds the society together loses its cohesiveness.

[meom]

I think it is pretty clear there is going to be some kind of political earthquake whether or not Thaksin makes it to the end of his term.

Maybe it depends how long the one we cannot talk about remains in his seat.

[Thaiquila]

I think it is pretty clear there is going to be some kind of political earthquake whether or not Thaksin makes it to the end of his term.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe it depends how long the one we cannot talk about remains in his seat.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yes, that is definitely a huge factor.

In any event, in Thailand and internationally, we continue to live in interesting times.

[The_Other_Mac]

but what about the alleged life threat I am reading in the nation today.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Watch:

"Help, I'm afraid that my life is in danger for even making this post." Signed, The Other Mac.

Now John, tell all your friends that even semi-anonymous Thaivisa members are in fear of their lives due to freedom of speech issues. Perhaps one of them happens to know a reporter who feels that the public needs to know about this intimidation. Perhaps that reporter might not be 100% diligent in investigating whether I have genuine reason to think my life is in danger.

Actually, we all know from regular experience that the Thai press can't get right basic facts that can be checked in encyclopedias or simply by asking the local population. The notion of them doing any research at all is rather humourous. Or it would be, if people didn't still believe something just because they read it in print.

[TAWP]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend [for now].

[John K]

There is one thing that is starting to emerge just by the frequency of events. It is a whole lot like reading body language. If you think of a scenario you can more or less predict what would happen next. Example if the PM was truly trying to do good for the people, he would not need to attack his critics. Very simply his deeds would do that (Actions speak louder than words.) If he is corrupt and is doing nothing to stem the corruption in his government, and trying to expand it instead, you would see news like what we are reading today. The more he attacks the people who are trying to discredit him, the more he reconfirms his guilt. So if the later is true, I can see some sort of martial law in the not to distant future. He probably will soon claim that his critics are working for the terrorists in the south and have them hauled off to jail. He is very actively making being a critic of him a unhealthy choice.

This is about as far from democracy as it can get and is looking more and more like what a dictator would do. For non Thais that may be a critic, the visa system works for him. All he needs do is wait for them to do a visa run and simply deny the new entry visa. That however would probably be a fatal blow to the countries economy and stem his cash flow.

[Thaiquila]

According to this opinion piece, very soon December 9, is an important day to watch:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2005/11/27...n_19266954.html

As far as farang getting involved in Thai politics, I would say, fahgettaboutit.

Probably one of the first times I heard of the country of Thailand was when I was a kid and a teenager in my community who was a son of a US diplomat was shot dead by the Thai military during a civil disturbance where Thai soldiers were actually shooting at Thai citizens.

Farangs in my opinion should stay well clear of Thai political rallies.

[John K]

Very good read thaiquila. It is getting increasingly obvious that the top is in panic mode and the story you linked just confirms it more. A good point to stay away from the rallies. It is Thai business and can best be observed from a tall building. I think the Thai soaps on the TV are being upstaged by the real thing. I normally don’t have time to read the papers, but because of all the happenings, I am making time.

Edited November 26, 2005 by john Krukowski

[johnnyk]

This is about as far from democracy as it can get and is looking more and more like what a dictator would do. For non Thais that may be a critic, the visa system works for him. All he needs do is wait for them to do a visa run and simply deny the new entry visa. That however would probably be a fatal blow to the countries economy and stem his cash flow.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't agree with you there.

Thailand is a long way from Zimbabwe or any number of other African countries in terms of being "far from democracy." Mugabe and his ilk would never tolerate anything remotely like what Sondhi is doing.

The visa run crowd inflate their importance to politics and the economy. The Thai economy does not depend on them, their total contribution is less than miniscule and they don't vote.

[chownah]

Just for perspective, the link from Thaiquila was written by Sopon Onkgara who is senior editor of the Nation. Kuhn Sopon is one of the key players in the ongoing struggle between Thaksin and the media. I don't know how realistic Kuhn Sopon's views are on this matter but it seems like an attempt to rouse and encourage the 'masses' to join in the opposition. It makes sense that Kuhn Sopon would do this regardless of whether it was a significant threat to the Thaksin gov't or not.

[John K]

On reflection perhaps you are right about the dictator statement, but certainly it is looking more and more like China. So what you are saying all the people in the news in recent weeks are circling sharks looking to make an opportunity to take power? If there was a more visible sign of suport like what happened in the Philippines when Marcos fell, everyone was wearing yellow to show they supported the movement. Visual cues are very compelling. The more I watch the happenings the more interesting it gets. It does not take a lot of imagination to think that the recent change in the sale times of alcohol are just a way to take a bigger cut before they resend the law or give the local police a bigger cut to look the other way. It is amazing how this type of system can function. It is much like a car in desperate need of a tune up that also has bald tires and bad shocks. No wonder they can’t seem to pass and get ahead.

[Thaiquila]

Interesting that you mentioned Marcos.

To my view, Thaksin is a Thai version of Marcos.

I was talking to a poor Thai before the election who was going to enthusiastically vote for Thaksin. I asked him why.

He said because he is the richest man in Thailand, he can't possibly be corrupt because he has no need to steal more money. I also got the impression that he believed voting for Thaksin would result in money coming directly into his pocket, maybe it did.

I mentioned he is probably hungry for something other than money ... total power. The distinction didn't register.

Edited November 27, 2005 by Thaiquila

[John K]

As chance would have it I had a chance to talk to some Thais today about this. One was a waitress working in lower Sukhumvit, and another was a tuk tuk driver. Without prompting them the both said there were doing better in previous years and blame it on the government. No doubt they were referring to tourism. The tuk tuk driver said there are no first time tourists, all have been here in the past. Apparently other destinations are more appealing for many new tourists. The feeling was quite strong and felt the PM was at least part to blame. Nether felt the tsunami was a issue because they were in Bangkok and not where the tsunami hit. Correct me if I am wrong but aren’t Thais rather laid back and don’t say much unless it is really big? For them to be so vocal, I found unusual. Both said they voted for the PM in the recent elections.

As for Marcos, I think there are some similarities but I was thinking more along the visual cues with wearing yellow.

[solo siam]

Theres a fair amount of brainwashing that must go on through the Thai media.

FOr example, We recently had a baby girl (thai wife and I), There is a government program to give every newborn baby a gift pack consisting of some baby stuff, a baby book etc... When I first saw this I remarked to the wife as to where it came from, who was it a present from?

"Thaksin" she replied.

I had a look around but couldnt see him.

[Neeranam]

Correct me if I am wrong but aren’t Thais rather laid back and don’t say much unless it is really big?

I predict an uprising, but I don't know the first thing about Thai politics.

The Thais I speak to in Issaan, haven't a clue what's going on, or just choose to do nothing. They say, "what can we do?".

As someone said, foreigners shouldn't get involved. I think it was about my 3rd day in Thailand when I left my Khao San Road hostel and bought a carryout to go to the nearest park, Sanam Luang. This was in 1992, and after sitting there watching a demonstration against the government(didn't know at the time) the place was surrounded by tanks and lots of soldiers. I thought, "this country looks pretty dangerous" and left pretty quickly. It turned out that it was "peaceful" but of course on another day that year there were hundreds of students killed by the army.

[John K]

Correct me if I am wrong but aren’t Thais rather laid back and don’t say much unless it is really big?

I predict an uprising, but I don't know the first thing about Thai politics.

The Thais I speak to in Issaan, haven't a clue what's going on, or just choose to do nothing. They say, "what can we do?".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can’t speak for the Thais, but in the states there were in the last few years elections that were one by just a few votes. There were 17 votes for a congressional seat, not to mention the 2000 presidential election. I think this is human nature to feel it is insurmountable and hopeless. The fact too is the need to travel to your home Provence to vote. This is a huge advantage for the incumbents. Not knowing is probably the answer and only with contact from family living in or around Bangkok will they ever know. I am sure the PM has the press under control. Isaan will probably only turn on the PM if he pissed them off or put a serious dent in the cash flow from Bangkok.

The play on them being uneducated is a easy game, and buying them off with a fraction of what they would have got if there was no corruption.

I suspect the Isaan will be out of the loop when things go down.

[Thaiquila]

To clarify, I did not mean to imply that Thaksin is exactly the same as Marcos.

But there do seem to be some similarities.

Dictatorial tendencies.

Obsession with crushing opposition.

Financial corruption.

Willingness to commit violence against his own people (the drug war).

Concentration of money and power to a small group, with him being number one, the richest man in Thailand.

He had the power to actually do good with it, but whether he has done that or not, I'll leave to the Thai people.

[solo siam]

If there was no corruption in Thailand, I'm betting nothing would ever get done.

[Johpa]

Thai politics is simply about which faction within the old boys network will get the biggest piece of the pie. Toxin has tried to eat (kin muang) too much of the pie and the result of such behavior is indigestion within the political system. Such indigestion can result in a small silent fart such as the coup back in the early 1990s that was scarecely noticed outside Bangkok other than the schools being let out early to complete loss of bowel control when the doggy doo doo flows in the streets such as back in the 1970s. What is going on now are muffled burps presaging future political events that certainly will not happen this week of HRM's birthday.