Thailand To Have 23rd-Biggest Economy By 2050: HSBC

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HSBC

Thailand to have 23rd-biggest economy by 2050: HSBC

The Nation

Thailand is predicted to become the world's 23rd-largest economy in 2050, being one of several emerging economies that will break into the top 30 in that time scale, according to HSBCs "The World in 2050" report.

The Kingdom's gross domestic product is expected to more than quadruple from US$187 billion (about Bt6 trillion) in 2010 to $856 billion four decades from now.

Among Asean countries, six of the bloc's 10 current members are expected to see their economic rankings among the top 50.

Aside from Thailand and the Philippines, which is predicted rise to 16th with GDP of $1.69 trillion in 2050 from $112 billion in 2010, the others are Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore. With GDPs of $1.05 trillion, $1.16 trillion, $451 billion and $441 billion in 2050, these four countries are expected to be ranked 17th, 21st, 41st and 42nd, respectively.

The report forecasts that 19 of the top 30 economies will be countries that are currently "emerging", and that China and India will power global growth over the next four decades, while countries as varied as Nigeria, Peru and the Philippines will also play a significant part.

The rankings are based on an economy's current level of development and the factors that will determine whether it has the potential to catch up with more-developed nations. These fundamentals include current income per capita, rule of law, democracy, education levels and demographic change.

In completing the report, HSBC assumes that policy-makers will continue to make progress in addressing economic flaws and that the countries can avoid wars and remain open to global trade and capital.

The report's prediction that the Philippines will become the world's 16th-largest economy implies a rise of 27 places from today's ranking, while Peru could sustain average growth of 5.5 per cent for four decades and jump 20 places to 26th.

The report concluded that the West is not getting poorer, but high levels of income per capita and weak demographics will limit growth. It is the small-population, ageing economies in Europe that are the big relative losers, seeing the biggest moves down the HSBC table.

The world will also face a massive demographic change over the next four decades. In 2050, there will be almost as many people in Nigeria as in the United States, Ethiopia will have twice as many people as projected in the US or Germany,??? and the population of many other African countries will double. Pakistan will have the sixth-largest population in the world. ??? It already does

Even if some of these countries remain relatively poor on a per capita basis, they could see a dramatic increase in the size of their economies thanks to population growth, the report states, citing Pakistan as an example of a country breaking into the top 30 on that basis.

By contrast, the Japanese working population looks set to contract by 37 per cent, and Russia's GDP by 31 per cent.

The euro zone faces similar problems, with working-population declines of 29 per cent in Germany, 24 per cent in Portugal, 23 per cent in Italy and 11 per cent in Spain, adding a whole new perspective to the current sovereign-debt crisis.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is predicted to jump 19 places to 40th because of its education system and rule of law, even though its population is forecast to fall to 36 million from the current 45 million.

Among the top 100, 26 nations are identified as fast-growth economies. They share a very low level of development but have made great progress in improving fundamentals. As they open themselves to the technology available elsewhere, they should enjoy many years of what HSBC calls "copy and paste" growth ahead.

Besides China, India, the Philippines and Malaysia, this category includes Bangladesh, the Central Asian countries of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Peru and Ecuador in Latin America, and Egypt and Jordan in the Middle East.

The growth category extends to 43 countries. It includes 11 Latin American nations such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, El Salvador, Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic; Turkey, Romania and the Czech Republic in central and Eastern Europe; as well as war-ravaged Iraq and Yemen.

Africa will finally start to emerge from economic obscurity, the report states. Five of the fast-growth countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, and three are in the growth category.

-- The Nation 2012-01-17

[w11guy]

Economists have trouble forecasting what's happening in the next year, so I wouldn't listen too much to what they think things will be like in almost 40 years time. So many unexpected things could happen that it's impossible to predict. Just before the 2008 recession the economists almost all agreed that things were great and going to get better. They have no real idea of what's going on. The global system is way to complex to take everything into account and make a realistic prediction so far ahead.

[Pib]

Yea, such forecasts are nice to read and are usually based simply on projected (best guess) GDP growth...like a country's GDP will average 5% per year for the next 40 years. But we definitely don't live in a world where things go as projected. I wonder if this report also calculated in the possibly of Bangkok sinking into the oceans over the next 50 years and how that would impact the ecomony...or a half dozen coups between now and 2050, a couple of major wars in the world, outerspace alien invasion (point being anything is possible), etc...etc...etc.

[bushwacker]

Interesting to read. Most of us will be dead in 40 years.

The economists must have assumed away a long list of issues. Like global warming, tribal wars, political uncertainty. One thing that I have learned over my many years is people do not change easily. Having said this how do we get rid of the graft in Thailand or instill the sense of hard work or love of education in the students. I think this news piece is really An Economists Fairy Tale but a good read.

[GreenSnapper]

Hahaha... Philippines and Nigeria....

Some people smoke too much.

[Darrel]

Economists have trouble forecasting what's happening in the next year, ...

Most of them dont even know what they had for breakfast this morning.

[nong38]

HIGHLY PAID LEGITIM ATE FORTUNE TELLERS.

[hyperdimension]

Where is the link to this report?

[mrmazinkle]

Yeah Bull**** indeed I seem to remember a famous quote 'if all the economists were laid end to end they still wouldn't reach a conclusion'

[Sydebolle]

What did these guys smoke?

[pepi2005]

In 40 years, so many things can change ... almost ridiculous to make such predictions!

Factors like economical damage obviously haven't been considered at all for this 'prediction' (Thailand, hub of predictions and fortune-telling!), something that will turn out as a big challenge in the future. In Thailand, it is still standard to throw highly poisonous garbage into the sea or at general dumps or to even burn it, Thailand produces (and has to dump) plastic in world-record amounts, and the damage to natural forests can be seen everywhere (make money fast with rubber plantations or condo construction, who needs trees?!).

But as it unfortunately is with environmental damage: future generations will have to pay the price.

Edited January 17, 2012 by pepi2005

[impulse]

I'm not figuring to make it past 2012. Those Mayans were smart.

[blackthorn2005]

I love the smell of napalm in the morning, it is the smell of victory. This smells of the usual B.S.!

[HerbalEd]

Where is the link to this report?

Ever heard of Goggle?

[HerbalEd]

I'm not figuring to make it past 2012. Those Mayans were smart.

Not smart enough to survive.

[FalangBaa]

Where is the link to this report?

Ever heard of Goggle?

Nope, never heard of it. Unless you mean beer goggles. Heard of them.

[jalansanitwong]

Most economists didnt see Sept 2008 coming so what possible chance is there of them predicting where countries like Thailand and co will be at regarding GDP by 2050? Thailand is a prime candidate for civil unrest and much worse sometime this decade whilst PI and Nigeria are corrupt human rubbish tips.

[yumidesign]

anyone with half a brain could generalize on the prospects put forward based on things like population trends, but specifics are pure fantasy. and predicting what will happen in Thailand is pure lunacy. glad i do not bank with HSBC

Edited January 18, 2012 by yumidesign

[Roj]

Nigeria has already made it to Hub status - being the world Hub for scamming people out of their savings.

[JohnAllan]

Intriguing. But that prediction hinges on the accuracy of such 38 years before the date. Who will be around? Who will remember? And how many other countries, industries and technological advances will, by then, have thrown such predictions into disarray?

[bkk_mike]

I love the way that, typical Thai reporting, says how fast Thailand will grow, but doesn't mention how they're expected to be overtaken...

i.e.

Thailand - $187bn now to $856 bn

Philippines - $112bn now to $1.69 trillion

[hyperdimension]

Where is the link to this report?

Ever heard of Goggle?

OK I found it: http://www.research....Vj&n=282364.PDF

It's just annoying that news articles write so many words about something, such as a particular report, web site or youtube video, yet do not provide any links to sources.

Edited January 23, 2012 by hyperdimension

[Payboy]

Thailand to have 23rd-biggest economy by 2050

Quite possible if they are able to stay in one piece till then.