Smoke, Smog, Dust 2012 Chiang Mai

[Priceless]

This is a case of apples and oranges. The reading of 25 is an hourly reading.

Um, no.

It is actually the PCD's official daily average for the Cityhall station for Sunday the 11th. 25.5975 to be precise.

I thought you were keeping up with the numbers?

Cheers, CMExpat

Actually, the PCD's official daily average had not been published/posted, or at least not seen by me, when I made my post (10:48 this morning). It just so happened that the 24-hour average (24.9) was indeed very close to the number quoted by El Jefe.

This is the source that I use: http://aqnis.pcd.go.th/report/northernhaze/2012-MAR

To be honest, I don't follow the hourly figures for PM10. There are a number of reasons for this, one being that my interest is largely in the time-series analysis which is where I have a large portion of my previous professional experience. Another is that both the Thai and all international standards that I have seen are for 24-hour averages. A third reason is that I have a life to live, and the five minutes/day or so that I spend on the pollution problem feels like quite enough for me.

/ Priceless

[richard10365]

I'm not sure if this has been posted....and I'm not going back to read 25 pages of expert advice from the ThaiVisa community to find out...

anyway, from the U.S. Consulate:

Poor Air Quality in Northern Thailand

In Chiang Mai and other areas of northern Thailand, poor air quality might pose a health threat during the dry season (roughly February to May). You should be aware of the local Air Quality Index (AQI) and take appropriate measures to minimize the impact on your health. See the “Medical Facilities and Health Information” section in Thailand Country Specific Information, our official advice for Americans traveling and living in Thailand.

http://chiangmai.usconsulate.gov/programs_and_events/2012/poor-air-quality-in-northern-thailand.html

[Priceless]

I'm not sure if this has been posted....and I'm not going back to read 25 pages of expert advice from the ThaiVisa community to find out...

anyway, from the U.S. Consulate:

Poor Air Quality in Northern Thailand

In Chiang Mai and other areas of northern Thailand, poor air quality might pose a health threat during the dry season (roughly February to May). You should be aware of the local Air Quality Index (AQI) and take appropriate measures to minimize the impact on your health. See the “Medical Facilities and Health Information” section in Thailand Country Specific Information, our official advice for Americans traveling and living in Thailand.

http://chiangmai.usc...n-thailand.html

One only wishes that the US Consulate checked its facts before posting. May is without exception one of the good (i.e. little polluted) months of the year, as is April with the exception of April 2010, which was really bad.

/ Priceless

[WinnieTheKhwai]

One only wishes that the US Consulate checked its facts before posting. May is without exception one of the good (i.e. little polluted) months of the year, as is April with the exception of April 2010, which was really bad.

At least this is one where a data mash on their part doesn't cause them to start a war somewhere.

As for April, I disliked April 2011 worse. Rain on Songkran day.. robbed me of a whole day of fun.

Edited March 12, 2012 by WinnieTheKhwai

[mogoso]

Back in the US and I can go outside and take a deep breath of relatively clean fresh air. It's in the mid sixties the air and temperature is just delightful.

It's been less than a week since leaving Chiang Mai and I miss it and my grandson and the chocolate banana nut bread cupcakes dipped in dark chocolate for an icing most emphatically, until December, but not the air you all are breathing over there at this time.

[leicashot]

Can anyone please give me an accurate update today? I have a flight to BKK, then connecting to CNX, arriving tonight. Should I cancel my CM connection? How bad is it right now?

[chiang mai]

It looks better this morning than it's been for a couple of weeks, I can actually see the outline of Doi Suthep!

[leicashot]

It looks better this morning than it's been for a couple of weeks, I can actually see the outline of Doi Suthep!

Sounds good. Does it look to stay that way? I tend to get light asthma in very smoky situations so what do you think?

Many thanks

[chiang mai]

It's a coin toss I'm afraid, we all hope it will, but...! If you suffer from asthma I, me personally, would avoid CM right now, sorry.

[leicashot]

It's a coin toss I'm afraid, we all hope it will, but...! If you suffer from asthma I, me personally, would avoid CM right now, sorry.

Thanks veyr much. A friend of mine just said it was bad so guess I'll give it a miss.....

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Actually it's really clear this morning; there was rain in the area yesterday. So if you're looking at today then it's perfectly fine. But it's only 13 March, it is possible that the weather changes which would bring back the smog. If your travel plans are flexible enough that you can just leave at a moment's notice then I would still come to Chiang Mai. If not, then not.

If this lasts for another week / week and a half then I'm getting confident that this was it for the year.

Look at the sudden difference as the winds changed over the weekend:

But again, this is not a prediction.

Edited March 13, 2012 by WinnieTheKhwai

[connda]

Can anyone please give me an accurate update today? I have a flight to BKK, then connecting to CNX, arriving tonight. Should I cancel my CM connection? How bad is it right now?

This is the best it has been in weeks. We've had winds and light rain which has cleaned the air in the low lying areas out. Looks like we have two more days of this type of weather before high pressure sets back in. Once that happens, it will take some time for the smoke to build back up. A week. Maybe two. Depends on the level of burning. Like Winnie, I'm hoping we've seen the worst.

Good luck.

Edited March 13, 2012 by connda

[nikster]

Great news!!

All it took was divine intervention! Rain was forecast for all of the north, and it has come.

[el jefe]

It may not always be a totally fair comparison to use the hourly reading to the 24 hour hour average, but if I look up at Doi suthep 2-3 kms away and can barely make out the outline of the mountain, yet the current hourly reading is 25, I know something is wrong.

The Nation reported last week that the PCD said CM had 6 consecutive days of PM10 over the 120 limit (I understand the difference between various govt's limits). In an earlier post you said there were 3 days where there were no readings. Coincidentally, those 3 days immediately preceded the 6. The PCD obviously thinks that the zeros are correct. Otherwise there were about a dozen days in a row with PM10 over the limit. Those 3 missing days may have been the highest of the year. Who knows? You may think that missing 10% of the data during the most important time of the year is acceptable. You're entitled to your opinion. My opinion is that the numbers have been wrong on about 10 days in the past 30 (including the past 3) when there have been hourly readings below 40. imo, with over 30% of the data questionable, none of the statistics can be relied upon. I refuse to believe that the air for the last 2 or 3 days is as good as it gets with regular hourly readings of below 40. Being generous, the I'd say the reading now can't be less than 50, despite the official reading of 25. How do we know that the 200 readings of last week are accurate? Maybe they were reduced by 50% too, making the 200 in reality 400.

Priceless can compile all the statistics he wants. And I appreciate them. But if you just compare the burning season (use the worst 30 or 45 consecutive days each year, rather than fixed dates on the calendar) over the last 5 years from 2008 thru the current year (please adjust for the omissions and errors this year), it's hard to argue that the trend isn't towards more pollution. Maybe the trend over the last 10 or 15 years is down. Maybe over the last 5,000 years too. But except for the unusual rains of 2011, the trend during burning season over the last 5 years is upwards.

And, Winnie, you can build all the statistics you want, but until the govt stops sponsoring the burning there's no reason to believe it will get better in the near future.

'It may not always be a totally fair comparison to use the hourly reading to the 24 hour hour average'

No, it is always completely incorrect.

'The Nation reported last week that the PCD said CM had 6 consecutive days of PM10 over the 120 limit'

Presumably March 5-10.

'In an earlier post you said there were 3 days where there were no readings.'

I am fairly sure that I said that there were 3 days (out of 5) with no readings that could be assumed to be in excess of 120 µg/m³. These days were February 25-27.

'Coincidentally, those 3 days immediately preceded the 6.'

No, they did not as February 27 is followed by February 28, not by March 5.

'Those 3 missing days may have been the highest of the year. Who knows?'

Since there were no readings obviously nobody knows, as you point out. However, one can make an educated guess by looking at the results from the other measuring station, Uparaj (which tends to correlate very closely with 'Chiang Mai', correlation coefficient over February-March of this year: 0.96). Here is a graph with the readings for those two stations, clearly showing that the Uparaj readings for February 28-29 were well below the 120 threshold (84.3 and 85.4, respectively). It is extremely unlikely that the 'Chiang Mai' values for the same dates would be over 120.

I'll refrain from commenting on your speculations, since there is nothing outside of your imagination to support them.

'the trend during burning season over the last 5 years is upwards.'

I'm not going to waste my time doing a special linear regression to determine the exact trend line for the last five years. However, this graph shows the 10-year trend line and it is very clear, to anybody who can read a graph, that the trend has also been falling for the last five years:

/ Priceless

I was replying to Winnie, but thanks for your comments, even if you didn't get the stats right.

The PCD said said the 6 consecutive days of unhealthy air quality in CM were from 28 Feb thru 4 March. obviously they counted the missing data from 27 Feb as a zero and therefore the air quality was excellent. otherwise there were over 12 days of horrendous air in CM.

I think we all agree that there are errors and omissions in the PCD stats. Where we have a difference is in how much we trust the remaining stats.

So far, all we're doing is compiling stats. If this weather continues, the air quality should continue to improve and we won't hear anything about it for another 10 months. But there's no reason to believe that we won't have another burning season like this one in 2013 or 2014 if the govt doesn't stop sponsoring the burning,

[chiang mai]

Great news!!

All it took was divine intervention! Rain was forecast for all of the north, and it has come.

Oh no it hasn't at least not in Muang, yet.

[T_Dog]

Great news!!

All it took was divine intervention! Rain was forecast for all of the north, and it has come.

About ten drops of rain total in Mae Taeng. In the late afternoon we took a trip up in the hills for dinner and there were plenty of fires being lit. I don't think the fat lady has sung yet.

[bankruatsteve]

I wonder if the Thai gov or even the RF (gulp) could provide "chipper" stations in the ag areas so that whatever would be burned could be collected and chipped instead? ie: put back in the ground or lot's of uses. Might even be a profit in that?

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Great news!!

All it took was divine intervention! Rain was forecast for all of the north, and it has come.

Oh no it hasn't at least not in Muang, yet.

It rained in Mae Hia, that's Muang district.

(And again, you don't need the rain exactly on top of you for the overall changing weather and wind patterns to improve things.)

[chiang mai]

Great news!!

All it took was divine intervention! Rain was forecast for all of the north, and it has come.

Oh no it hasn't at least not in Muang, yet.

It rained in Mae Hia, that's Muang district.

(And again, you don't need the rain exactly on top of you for the overall changing weather and wind patterns to improve things.)

Was it a torrential downpour Winnie that left the Mae Hia streets awash, or was it that kinda, I'll just shake off the last few drops before I zip up kinda rain, methinks the latter perhaps which, just for the record, is not really what we know as rain, is it!

[KireB]

Actually it's really clear this morning; there was rain in the area yesterday. So if you're looking at today then it's perfectly fine. But it's only 13 March, it is possible that the weather changes which would bring back the smog. If your travel plans are flexible enough that you can just leave at a moment's notice then I would still come to Chiang Mai. If not, then not.

If this lasts for another week / week and a half then I'm getting confident that this was it for the year.

Look at the sudden difference as the winds changed over the weekend:

But again, this is not a prediction.

It was really clear today? Time to get some glasses I'm afraid! Only the outlines of the mountains are visible, but o yeah, you rely on statistics!

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Yes, it was really clear today. A lot of humidity in the air of course. (Check the stats. It's the RH (Relative Humidity) one.

Opened all windows on all sides, got a great breeze through.

But feel free to keep up the panic.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Was it a torrential downpour Winnie that left the Mae Hia streets awash, or was it that kinda, I'll just shake off the last few drops before I zip up kinda rain, methinks the latter perhaps which, just for the record, is not really what we know as rain, is it!

It was not a torrential downpoor, but solid and sustained, with still wet patches in the morning. I had to close the windows on one side of the house as it rained into the house there. And just now today there was a lot of rain in the Sanpatong area; I didn't witness the actual rain but a lot of puddles around.

[Mapguy]

Why not?

Posted yesterday morning. You're welcome. Now, can we please get back to the <deleted>' number crunching ?

[chiang mai]

Was it a torrential downpour Winnie that left the Mae Hia streets awash, or was it that kinda, I'll just shake off the last few drops before I zip up kinda rain, methinks the latter perhaps which, just for the record, is not really what we know as rain, is it!

It was not a torrential downpoor, but solid and sustained, with still wet patches in the morning. I had to close the windows on one side of the house as it rained into the house there. And just now today there was a lot of rain in the Sanpatong area; I didn't witness the actual rain but a lot of puddles around.

Let it be known then that Winnie has got wet patches on his side of town,

[nikster]

With the rains, the burn apologists and "it isn't so bad" people are going to sprout like mushrooms.

Nevertheless - it's great that it was raining, and air in CM looks perfect - PM10 < 50 is fine in my book.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

With the rains, the burn apologists and "it isn't so bad" people are going to sprout like mushrooms.

Nevertheless - it's great that it was raining, and air in CM looks perfect - PM10 < 50 is fine in my book.

I don't think anyone would argue that it wasnt bad this year; almost as bad as 2007 though we'll have the final comparison in a week or two.

[Priceless]

I was replying to Winnie, but thanks for your comments, even if you didn't get the stats right.

The PCD said said the 6 consecutive days of unhealthy air quality in CM were from 28 Feb thru 4 March. obviously they counted the missing data from 27 Feb as a zero and therefore the air quality was excellent. otherwise there were over 12 days of horrendous air in CM.

I think we all agree that there are errors and omissions in the PCD stats. Where we have a difference is in how much we trust the remaining stats.

So far, all we're doing is compiling stats. If this weather continues, the air quality should continue to improve and we won't hear anything about it for another 10 months. But there's no reason to believe that we won't have another burning season like this one in 2013 or 2014 if the govt doesn't stop sponsoring the burning,

'The PCD said said the 6 consecutive days of unhealthy air quality in CM were from 28 Feb thru 4 March.'

Could you be so kind as to supply a source for this?

There are, as far as I can find, four time series that could possibly be the foundation for a statement like that:

[1] The 24-hour averages, measured fom 9 AM to 9 AM, for the 'Chiang Mai' station in the daily reports on the Northern Haze ( http://aqnis.pcd.go....rnhaze/2012-MAR )

[2] The 24-hour averages, measured fom 9 AM to 9 AM, for the 'Uparaj' station in the same reports.

[3] The 24-hour averages, measured from midnight to midnight, for the 'Chiang Mai' station in the 'Manual Report' ( http://aqmthai.com/public_report.php )

[4] The 24-hour averages, measured from midnight to midnight, for the 'Uparaj' station in the same report.

Now let's look at what these sources say about the period 28 February to 4 March:

[1] No values for February 28-29 and a value <120µg/m³ for 4 March => Three (3) 'unhealthy days', i.e. with PM₁₀ >120µg/m³.

[2] Values for 28-29 February and 4 March all <120µg/m³ (all below 100 as fact) => Three (3) 'unhealthy days'.

[3] No value for February 28 and values for March 3-4 both <120µg/m³ => Three (3) 'unhealthy days'.

[4] Values for February 28-29 and for March 3-4 all <120µg/m³ => Two (2) 'unhealthy days'.

Have you got another source for what you claim 'the PCD said', or is it all a figment of your imagination?

/ Priceless

PS For those readers of this post who are not interested in statistics, particularly falsified such:

I also much preferred last year, when we did not have any bad days, and I think the authorities have failed badly in not suppressing this year's burning.

Edited March 14, 2012 by Priceless

[puck2]

Yes, it was really clear today. A lot of humidity in the air of course. (Check the stats. It's the RH (Relative Humidity) one.

Opened all windows on all sides, got a great breeze through.

But feel free to keep up the panic.

Maybe outside it was clearer (!) than in your domicile ...... for some different reasons??? I guess you are a smoker.

[puck2]

Priceless, you will never get it.

You believe in the bible = PCD measurements. Some guys, me too, don’t. You try to convince us that we have to believe. You would like to make us believe, that Jesus walked over the water without plunging. To be fair we, the infidel, cannot improve the opposite that this really didn‘t happen.

We, PSCD-statistical disbelievers, cannot improve that their measurements are wrong/manipulated, and you cannot improve that they are realiable.

That is the moment when it is time to use our sanity, experience etc.. I wouldn’t like to refresh all the decisive points against your holy belief in those statistics. You stubbornly defend these numbers without any relationship to the weather conditions of the dates in your tables and against someone's common sense. You repeat it like a robot:

The yearly pollution curve in CNX has a downwards trend because the numbers show that result. Period.

Then any discussion is in vain. Knowing and believing can exclude each other. Yes, then Jesus walked over the water, because you believe it. If the PCD would show you that you have 6 fingers on your left hand, you would believe it.

PCD says

you have 10 fingers on both your hands. Then count backwards starting on your left hand and moving each finger: thumb (10), forefinger (9), middle finger (8), ring finger (7), baby finger (6 = six)

I’m sure you would believe it because these are numbers from PCD - against all common sense. You never answered convincingly to our objections.

The discussion in this thread is not that this year is so bad. The problem is your belief in a declining air pollution over the years by using a very, very dubious source and that the Thais worked against polluting.

It’s the weather…, Clinton would tell us. The weather only is the reason for the ups and downs in the pollution tables here in Thailand, nothing else. Early rain like in 2011 -> low (fire) pollution; late rain like in 2010 -> high (fire) pollution.

Edited March 14, 2012 by puck2

[Priceless]

Priceless, you will never get it.

You believe in the bible = PCD measurements. Some guys, me too, don’t. You try to convince us that we have to believe. You would like to make us believe, that Jesus walked over the water without plunging. To be fair we, the infidel, cannot improve the opposite that this really didn‘t happen.

[...]

I'll try to explain why I believe in the PCD measurements, even though I understand that I will never convince you, a true believer.

The PCD, unlike most comparable authorities in different countries, publish daily measurements for dozens of stations around the country. They have been doing this since the late 90's and keep all the results on-line for anybody to study. This makes it possible for outsiders like me to apply a number of more or less sophisticated statistical methods to evaluate whether these numbers are plausible or not. This I have done over the years, and found nothing to indicate that they are not, even though there are, of course, individual numbers that are most probably wrong. This means e.g. that results correlate in a way that one would expect with neighbouring and more distant stations, with long-term weather patterns and with known changes in the weather.

If we for a moment assume that the PCD is deliberately falsifying all its data, this would require an enormously complicated algorithm that I, quite frankly, believe would be far beyond the capabilities of the PCD. Also, I have lived in Chiang Mai since 2006 and followed the pollution problem on a more or less daily basis since the following year. Almost never have I, for an individual day, found the PCD numbers differ significantly from my subjective experience.

Incidentally I am not, and have never been, religious. Neither do I believe that the Earth is flat, that Elvis lives, that president Kennedy was shot with a cross-bow by the CIA or that Marilyn Monroe will come back to earth on Judgement Day. I do, however, tend to believe in statements from sources that ought to be reliable and where I can myself make a reasonable evaluation of their credibility.

I can see from your profile that you are a newcomer to ThaiVisa. I obviously do not know whether you are also a newcomer to Thailand/Chiang Mai. In any case, I think it would be a good idea for you to abandon your apparent conviction that anything said or published by Thai authorities or Thais in general has to be false. It is at least prejudicial, if not worse, and may eventually cause you trouble if you continue living in this country.

/ Priceless