Damage Control Moves Already In Place In Case Court Rules Against Thai Govt: Executive Decrees

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ANALYSIS

Ruling on decrees 'no huge threat'

THE NATION

Damage control moves already in place in case court rules against govt

BANGKOK: -- The Yingluck government's damage-control effort over the two controversial executive decrees has begun - regardless of whether any real damage will occur or not. Government leaders and key members of the ruling party have come out one after another to declare that it would not be the end of the world if the two decrees were shot down by the Constitution Court.

Thai politics will likely be distracted a little from the Four Seasons Hotel controversy this week. The Constitution Court will return to the front pages with tomorrow'sWednesday's ruling on the two decrees. The excitement, however, could be a flash in the pan.

The good news for opponents of the government is that the administration may lose some face. The bad news for them is that political life should return to normal after a few days. If the court kills either decree or both, there will be calls for the government to show responsibility, but such a political game will be short-lived.

"The Opposition are just opportunists," said Pichit Chuenban, a Pheu Thai party-list MP who is a member of the ruling camp's legal team. "The problems concerning the decrees involve technicalities, not principles. Even if the Constitution Court disagrees with the government regarding the question of urgency, it will not mean the court disapproves of the principles behind the decrees."

The Democrat Party's front man in the campaign against the two decrees is former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij. In a recent interview, he said he was particularly concerned about the decree that would allow the government to borrow Bt350 billion as emergency flood-prevention funds. According to Korn, this borrowing decree makes a blatant mockery of Parliament's power to scrutinise state budgets and could set a very bad example for future governments.

The borrowing decree, however, may scrape through the Constitution Court's review. Facing a more uncertain future is the other decree, which seeks to transfer the staggering debts of the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) to the Bank of Thailand.

In the eyes of many analysts, the former decree can be classified as urgent, although the government has been far from clear-cut on how it plans to prevent future flooding. The government has had a tougher time trying to explain why the FIDF debt requires an emergency decree. Unlike the threat of floods, the FIDF debt issue has been a financial problem for years.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva has led calls for the government to "show responsibility" if either decree is rejected by the Constitution Court. "Traditionally, it used to be Parliament that decided if a government's executive decree was legitimate," Pichit said. "It's not written anywhere that the government would have to resign if the Constitution Court rejects an executive decree."

It is likely that the borrowing decree will get the Constitution Court's nod, but the FIDF decree will be rejected. If that happens, nobody will be particularly upset or happy. If the opposite happens, or if the court rejects both decrees, the political impact would be harder on the government, although the administration would be unlikely to collapse under the pressure.

It will require at least six of the nine Constitution Court judges to effectively reject either decree. This means a 5-4 vote in favour of rejection is not enough to kill the decrees.

The Yingluck government has made it clear that rejection by the court would not stop it from seeking what it wants. The administration will simply return to the normal legislative route, which would only take a little more time.

-- The Nation 2012-02-21

[Dap]

And life continues at it's normal pace. It would seem that with or without the blessing of the court the money will be acquired and spent minimally for the benefit of the populace and the 30% + pocketed as usual. Curious though to see the findings of the court concerning the transfer of FIDF debt.

[Pib]

But if the decrees must instead be turned in bills and routed through the Parliament for passage as laws the individual Parliament ministers may get more say in what flood control projects get funded in their provinces. In the U.S. we call this "pork" when elected officials steer money toward pet projects in their constituency. And we know Thais also love pork.