Analysis: Beginning Of The End Of Thaksin?

[dr_Pat_Pong]

Maybe can check his 'mercury' out and determine ?? 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

With Uranus behind you, all is well

[jumbo]

Could be quicker as we might think, but I really fear the successor.

Thaksin might be a little off as far as we are concerned but he still got this country back on track adn I do not really see anybody that understands Thailands needs as he does. Furthermore any successor just might decide to scrutinize on tourist Visas and foreigners in Thailand that do not work.....same for the successor of HM the King.....

Expose baht crisis culprits: Sondhi

Business day

In a bid to further expose the scandal involving Thailand’s floatation of the baht value on July 2, 1997, controversial media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul, pictured, yesterday assigned his senior editor of the Manager daily to file a request from the Bank of Thailand for information pinpointing to such individuals who actually recieved, and benefited from, the advanced date and knowledge of the baht devaluation.

Tulya Sirikulpipat, senior editor of the Manager daily, went to the BOT head office yesterday and lodged Sondhi’s letter to BOT Governor Pridiyathorn Devakul’s representative.

In the letter, Sondhi claimed his basic right of the access to government information, stipulated by the present Constitution and by the Government Information Act B.E. 2540 (1997).

Under the Act, which took effect on December 10,1997, the government is required to disclose certain information to the public as and when requested.

The letter asked for the BOT to give the information relating to the following items.

First, who are the persons or juristic persons that bought or signed contracts of purchase of foreign currencies, before the baht floating date, and before the closure of the 58 defaulted finance companies? When had the purchases been made,and at what amounts?

Second, who were the individuals or juristic persons (companies) that returned foreign loans, or entered into contracts which protect them from the risk of exchange rates fluctuation, before the loans were actually due in the light of baht floatation and the closing of the 58 ailing finance companies?

Third, who were the persons or juristic persons withdrawing more than 10 million baht from the period of January 1997 until March 1998? And when and what exact amounts did they withdraw?

Fourh, who were the individuals or what companies that ordered or imported unsually large quantities of goods from abroad for speculative increase of their prices, before the baht devaluation and the closure of the 58 finance companies.?

Fifth, who were the persons or juristic persons that made SWAP agreements with the BOT before the baht floatation (especially on June 30,1997) and before the closure of the 58 finance companies.

Yesterday’s submission of the letter requiring the answers from the BOT was to nail down the persons who allegedly gave an insider’s information regarding the baht devaluation on July 2,1997. The letter was also seeking to expose whoever benefitted from the scandal.

Sondhi and anti-Thaksin critics said the leaked information about the baht devaluation enabled Prime Minister Thaksin’s firm, Shin Corp, become wealthy overnight.

Sondhi also implicated Finance Minister Thanong Bidaya on the eve of December 16 during his 11th „Maung Thai Rai Sapda“ (Thailand Weekly) talk show at Lumpini Park.

Earlier, on December 14, the media tycoon also sent a letter to the Prime Minister’s Office enquiring about the alleged use of government’s properties for personal benefits of some high ranking administrators and their relatives.

[marshbags]

Interesting, very interesting.

I for one would not be too unhappy to see the end of the man's "reign".

Although, not too up on the background of Thai polotics, is there someone just as bad waiting in the wings should he leave post for whatever reason.?

redrus

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think you mis spelled polotics it starts with a B

[chownah]

The description under the title of this topic talks about a 'quick' downfall for Thaksin....so how quick will it be....its been a couple three weeks now....will we be dabating about his 'quick' downfall in 3 months?...6 months?...1 year?....5 years?....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Where have all the experts gone? Where is the quick downfall? Still waiting.

[Heng]

The description under the title of this topic talks about a 'quick' downfall for Thaksin....so how quick will it be....its been a couple three weeks now....will we be dabating about his 'quick' downfall in 3 months?...6 months?...1 year?....5 years?....

Where have all the experts gone? Where is the quick downfall? Still waiting.

The "experts" are still waiting as well.

[Jai Dee]

SURANAND: FORMING A NEW POLITICAL PARTY IS OKAY IF IT HAS NO HIDDEN AGENDA

Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office Suranand Vejjajiva (สุรนันทน์ เวชชาชีวะ) said that a plan by former leader of Mahachon (มหาชน) party to set up a new political party will give society more options, but urged that the move must be transparent.

Former Mahachon party leader Anek Laothammatat (เอนก เหล่าธรรมทัศน์) will cooperate with former leaders of Tin Thai (ถิ่นไทย) and Palangtham (พลังธรรม) party as well as teacher representatives, academics and private organizations to establish a new political party to offer another option for the people. Mr. Suranand, speaking as a Thai Rak Thai party executive, said that the move is deemed good as it gives people more choices in a democratic society. He also foresees no problems in a move to set up of Crisis Watch group to monitor crises in society, as the government is ready to be examinied by all sides, especially by the people. However, he said that the monitor should be carried out creatively, with no hidden agenda to discredit one particular individual.

Mr. Suranand added that politics in 2006 will be rather intense, as the government is heading toward the sixth year of administration. He said that the Thai Rak Thai party is restructuring its organization, adding that there are now two groups which have caused recent rifts within the party. He said that the party can talk to the group which means well for the people but has different opinions on issues so that they will understand the party’s line, leading to party unity. However, he said that those who want to create conflicts to negotiate for what they want will not be welcomed by the party.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 04 January 2006

[ilyushin]

The description under the title of this topic talks about a 'quick' downfall for Thaksin....so how quick will it be....its been a couple three weeks now....will we be dabating about his 'quick' downfall in 3 months?...6 months?...1 year?....5 years?....

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not fast enough! If organized demonstrations started today he might be out by Chinese New Year! 春節, 春节,

"If everything is coming your way then you're in the wrong lane."

[sabaijai]

The Nation newspaper gained my great admiration back in 1992 when they unflinchingly covered the tragedy of Suchinda's short-lived military dictatorship that resulted in the Black May massacres.   HM the King saved Thailand by calling Suchinda on the carpet before him, along with Chamlong.  HM talked sense into Suchinda in private rather more forcefully that day than he just did publically to Thaksin.  Suchinda resigned and Anand was brought in to hold the government together. 

Thankfully, His Majesty, Anand and The Nation are all still with us in this latest test of Thai democracy.  Those of us who have been loyal fans of The Nation, over the 13 years since Suchinda was forced to leave, will I hope, join me in the editors' latest political optimism.  The Nation's editorials, opinion essays and letters have been, for me at least, a daily source of hope, information and inspiration.  Since Thaksin's advent and subsequent strangulation of the media, including Bangkok Post, The Nation seems now to be the only uncensored mass media source of news and information left in Thailand. 

The Nation's analysis quoted above is incredibly hopeful--almost too good to be true.  I really, really want to believe that Thaksin's imminent demise is possible.  Thailand desperately needs a force for democracy like Abhisit.  Surely there is someone who will stand up for honesty, the moral tenets of Buddhism, the 1997 constitution, and the rule of law.  Surely not everyone in Thailand is out only to enrich himself, family, business and friends--at the expense of the rest of us.  Other posters have warned about being careful what one wishes for.  True enough.  Even Thaksin's kleptocracy is probably preferable to a military dictatorship like in Burma, or even under Suchinda.  Still, I would be happy to give life after Thaksin a go.  My only problem with The Nation's optimism is historical precedent.  Dictators of any kind find it really hard to let go and, given half a chance, tend to hang on for dear life;  for example, Stalin (31 years),  Suharto (31 years), Lee Kuan Yew (31 years), Mao Zedong (27 years), Mahathir Mohammed (22 years), Ne Win (26 years)  and now Than Shwe (13 years and counting) in poor Burma, Hun Sen (20 years and counting).   I could of course go on, but 'nuff said.  Let's hope Thaksin does not follow in their footsteps, but I'll believe his political end when I see it.

The Nation uncensored? It's a pale imitation of what it was back in 92, and the parent company is now part of Shinawatra family's corporate holdings.

For another perspective on The Nation:

Vanvamij

[K9FIN]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

[ilyushin]

LOS might just smile again like the old days with new leadership. TRT has served without success and destroyed the hopes of the nation. They (TRT) will still just keep blowing smoke like it is going to help.

"Hard to fly high too long as the air is too thin."

[Jai Dee]

OVERDRIVE: Shinawatras better off with cash in hand this year

Is the Shinawatra family going to bail out of its flagship company, Shin Corp? You can sense that there is a higher possibility of such a sell-off at this juncture compared to just a few weeks ago. Speculation about the arrival of China Telecom and Singapore Telecom as possible suitors for Shin Corp has been resurfacing.

Since Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has good relations with both Singapore and China, the deal could go either way. By the way, he and his family have just returned from a private holiday trip in Singapore.

From the viewpoint of Thaksin, now is really a good time for him to consider selling his family’s stake in Shin Corp, which in turn controls Shin Satellite, Advanced Info Service (AIS), Capital Ok and Thai AirAsia. Since Thaksin came to power five years ago, Shin Corp has yielded a return of almost 150 per cent. You won’t find a better success story than that. Thanks to the many advantages of having strong political connections, Shin Corp has met its objectives and created exceptional value for its shareholders.

The question is, going forward, what will become of Shin Corp? The Shinawatra family now controls about 34 per cent in Shin Corp, which commands a market capitalisation of Bt135 billion. If the Shinawatra family were to sell off their stake now, it would fetch them at least US$1.6 billion (Bt64.8 billion). The stock market environment is now favourable for selling Shin Corp when its share price is at a peak. Foreign investors have been pouring their money into Thai stocks since the beginning of the year, after having adjusted their portfolios late last year.

If the Shinawatra family was to stick to Shin Corp, it must have a long-term view for the company. But prospects for the company may be getting less rosy.

One local telecom analyst told me that Thaksin would be wise to follow the move of Boonchai Benjarongkul, who last year sold off his family’s Bt9.2 billion in stakes in United Communication Industry to telecom giant Telenor of Norway. “If they don’t sell out now, they will need to invest another Bt100 billion in the 3G business. Given the choice of getting Bt100 billion in cash or spending Bt100 billion from their own pocket, what do you think they are likely to do?” he said.

The 3G business will feature voice, data, images, teleconferencing, instant messaging, TV and more real-time technologies. Shin Corp’s money-making subsidiary AIS would be largely involved in making such products.

“If they invest in the 3G business, they wouldn’t see a return on investment for three years because the handsets and end-use products haven’t been developed yet. Even in Japan, NTT DoCoMo which is now providing the 3G service, is facing problems with its content, which lacks variety,” the telecom analyst noted.

In Thailand, there are still profits to be found in the 2G business. And about 95 per cent of 2G revenue is derived from talking rather than messaging. However, if China Telecom or Singapore Telecom is to buy into Shin Corp, the buyer should have a long-term plan of five to 10 years on how to develop their business in Thailand by making best use of their substantial capital. The telecom business is an industry for global players only.

In political terms, Thaksin would reduce the pressure on him regarding charges of conflict of interest if his family were to divest from Shin Corp, which has been benefiting hugely from political connections. There has been talk that once the Shinawatras get the money from selling their stake in Shin Corp, they would invest more in the satellite business. But the satellite business may not have a good future due to the growing penetration of landlines. While the satellite business might have looked promising five years ago, it looks much less attractive today.

More speculation has it that the Shinawatras would like to invest more in the energy or logistics sector once they have divested their telecom business. This assumption looks more plausible.

One securities sales official working for an international brokerage firm said he has been getting queries about the Shin Corp deal from his foreign clients. “I can’t tell my clients as to whether this deal will eventually be concluded or not.

But the likelihood of the deal going through is more likely now than it was one or two months ago,” he said.

“But if I were a buyer, I would not want the Shinawatras to sell off all of their stake. It would be a better deal if they were to reduce their stake in different phases, say, over a three-year period. This would ensure the buyer that it still has a strong partner to rely on,” he added.

The political scene looks like it will be rather messy this year, with Thaksin facing a growing challenge to his power. Sondhi Limthongkul, the media maverick, will spearhead calls for the another round of political reforms as well as the removal of Thaksin from office.

Other civic and democracy groups are going to scrutinise the government’s policies in earnest. Blocking Egat Plc’s privatisation is the main objective. A coalition of senators, lawyers and former bureaucrats have formed Corruption Watch to keep an eye on the government’s corruption scandals. Thaksin will face an uphill battle in implementing his policies. His coalition partners might abandon ship if Thaksin’s popularity was to sink.

With this kind of political backdrop, the Shinawatras should prefer cash to stocks. Just in case.

Published by The Nation - January 06, 2006

[LaoPo]

But the satellite business may not have a good future due to the growing penetration of landlines. While the satellite business might have looked promising five years ago, it looks much less attractive today.

Published by The Nation - January 06, 2006

1. Worldwide sales, including Thailand, of mobiles/cellphones (satellites!) are growing much faster than landlines...

2. Philips&Microsoft just announced a merger in the field of 'wireless' telephone via the PC; landlines telephones will be 'exit' in the next decade or so. EVERYBODY will make their calls either through:

a. mobile phone or

b. at home via the PC

3. PC connection, now mostly via cable or telephone lines, will also be wireless (satellites) in the very near future.

4. Worldwide, the once very powerful/rich -government owned/now private- telephonecompanies are sh_tting in their pants....

So, I really don't understand the phrase in this article of the Nation.

LaoPo

[Jai Dee]

From The Nation - January 07, 2006

[dr_Pat_Pong]

[haha]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

[marquess]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

Um! I wonder?!

[sriracha john]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

He thanks you for your support....

and salutes you right back...

[englishoak]

[sonthaya]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

He thanks you for your support....

and salutes you right back...

You got that one right

[dr_Pat_Pong]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

He sure is trying

[sonthaya]

I prefer an military solution, any thai roayl army generals

instead Mr. Toxin. I have spoken

I'm sure you don't want that to happen.

just imagine the consequences...

foreign investors would in fear take all their money out of the country.

the SET would skyrocket downwards.

the property market would collapse.

...is that really what you want to happen?

why can't you just let the guy do his job. he was elected by the people of thailand to serve the country for a set number of years. it's not like he is there forever.

frankly, I think thailand got lucky with this guy, thaksin. he's tough. and he is trying.

I salute the guy.

He sure is trying

No thank you very much, just look at Burma, we don't need a copy of that regime.

[chownah]

Remember this topic? Posted 12/13/2005. Back then the end of Toxin was imminent. Now its been over two months. So how fast will it be...it has already taken over two months. A petition has been handed in which many predicted would without a doubt be the end of him....but nothing has happened. The much celebrated downfall did not come...yet. So who wants to guess how fast will it be? Two months gone already....will it be 3 months 6 months 9 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 1 decade 2decades.....Is his downfall 'imminent'? or are you really not so sure that it will happen at all?

Edited February 16, 2006 by chownah

[britmaveric]

Remember this topic? Posted 12/13/2005. Back then the end of Toxin was imminent. Now its been over two months. So how fast will it be...it has already taken over two months. A petition has been handed in which many predicted would without a doubt be the end of him....but nothing has happened. The much celebrated downfall did not come...yet. So who wants to guess how fast will it be? Two months gone already....will it be 3 months 6 months 9 months 1 year 2 years 5 years 1 decade 2decades.....Is his downfall 'imminent'? or are you really not so sure that it will happen at all?

It's like the opening of the new airport.... it will take 40yrs!

[griser]

I admit to being a little confused about something here. I saw this in the Bangkok Post and then I saw this in CNN

One says the Constitutional Court rejected the Senators petition the other one says they HAVE to accept it.

Which account is correct?

Anyone have a clue?

Greg

Edited February 16, 2006 by griser

[marshbags]

I admit to being a little confused about something here. I saw this in the Bangkok Post and then I saw this in CNN

One says the Constitutional Court rejected the Senators petition the other one says they HAVE to accept it.

Which account is correct?

Anyone have a clue?

Greg

There was an earlier report on this on the BBC news channel that was posted at 16.00 on a topic started by Noel " Preparations For Feb 26th Anti Government Protest "

It states that it has been rejected also, please read it.

The Thai government is rotten to the core !!!!

How the hel_l do you clear the decks, even when the big kamoy in chief has gone.

It,s going to be a long hard struggle i fear, but at least awareness has kick started it off.

I just hope his cronies jump ship once it starts to roll for the sake of Thailands people and it,s future.

marshbags

Edited February 16, 2006 by marshbags

[Mobi]

I admit to being a little confused about something here. I saw this in the Bangkok Post and then I saw this in CNN

One says the Constitutional Court rejected the Senators petition the other one says they HAVE to accept it.

Which account is correct?

Anyone have a clue?

Greg

Yes I do. Read on:

Senators mull new move as petition fails

(TNA) – A group of 28 Senators will meet on Friday to discuss further moves after the country’s top court rejected their petition seeking a ruling on whether the prime minister had a conflict of interest over his alleged link with telecommunications giant Shin Corp, Senator Kaewsan Atibhodi said on Thursday.

The Constitutional Court agreed not to investigate the senators' petition, submitted on Tuesday, which alleged that Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra had violated the constitution with his involvement in business dealings while in office, bringing about a conflict of interest over his family's sale of their

telecom business to a Singaporean firm last month.

Eight of the 14 judges voted not to take action against Mr. Thaksin on grounds that ``the petitioners did not state clearly how the prime minister was involved in managing the share trade deal,'' said secretary-general of the court Paithoon Varahapaithoon.

Bangkok Senator Kaewsan declined to comment on the court’s decision, saying that he and the other members of the senate group will tomorrow seek common ground on what concrete measures can be taken on the matter.

Meanwhile, Tak Senator Panas Tassaneeyanont, another active member of the group, said he did not rule out the possibility that the senators would mount legal action against the judges for negligence of duty.

However, the senator said more time was needed to study the individual judges' rulings. Nevertheless, the senator said, the senate group would be seeking further action through other legal channels.

Senator Pichate Pattanachote of Nakorn Ratchasima province warned that the court ruling would not only raise questions among the broader society, but it would also lead to more negative public sentiment as the only legal channel to clarify the issue had already been closed.

“The Constitutional Court ruling has again caused another major crisis of confidence and serious problems, as it did in the past, all of which are detrimental to the nation,” Senator Pichate said.

Bangkok Post (Breaking News)

[Heng]

My guess (unlike all the 'near certain predictions' around here) is that he'll serve out his term and folks will vote in their next popular fellow.

[chownah]

It seems that the senators claimed that he was involved in the business transaction but did not say what he did that constituted involvement but they wanted the court to investigate anyway. This is sort of like a fishing expedition...."we think he did something wrong but we don't know what it was so you go spend taxpayers money to find out based solely on our expectations". This is usually considered bad form in juristic circles. If you want a court to organize a proceeding you need to have some idea of what the infraction is that you want them to investigate. Even if you have no evidence you need to at least say what it is that has been done....evidently that was not done here.

[dr_Pat_Pong]

My guess (unlike all the 'near certain predictions' around here) is that he'll serve out his term and folks will vote in their next popular fellow.

I reckon that you are on the money

[haha]

It seems that the senators claimed that he was involved in the business transaction but did not say what he did that constituted involvement but they wanted the court to investigate anyway. This is sort of like a fishing expedition...."we think he did something wrong but we don't know what it was so you go spend taxpayers money to find out based solely on our expectations". This is usually considered bad form in juristic circles. If you want a court to organize a proceeding you need to have some idea of what the infraction is that you want them to investigate. Even if you have no evidence you need to at least say what it is that has been done....evidently that was not done here.

I don't know all the specifics, but from the newspapers, I gather what pm thaksin did was he took advantage of some tax loopholes. ..which is legal.

I read, he employed some keen accountants to help him do this thus ensuring he did not do anything against the law.

the resulting turmoil and demonstrations tell me that many people don't like these loopholes.

so, if people are that much against the status quo, then, the next logical step is to change the current laws to plug these loopholes that they don't like. right?

....let's see if they do this.