Hypothetical Results Of Hyperinflation In The Us

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

There are a lot of reports claiming the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. And once that happens the US will suffer from hyper inflation. This is not intended to debate whether the USD will or will not suffer from hyperinflation, but what will the…..

Hypothetical results of hyperinflation in the US be to both the US and other countries of the world. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers??

[Naam]

hyperinflation in the U.S. alone will definitely affect most, if not all, economies on a global scale. as far as winners and losers are concerned i doubt that there will be any winners. the latter will also apply to commodity rich countries.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It seems like whatever county or countries became the new reserve currency would win in the long run. Perhaps China?

[flying]

I agree that there will be no winners in any real sense.

Meaning real people not those that ultimately have always pulled the strings.

As for the next world reserve currency? Of course it would be

a likely thought that the US will eventually lose that spot.

But I think due to the repercussions of that on the worlds economy .....

the whole concept of a worlds reserve currency will have reached its "use by date"

I think the carnage will be such that the world will be gun shy of going down that road of hope again.

Instead I imagine it will be a basket of currencies not dependent totally on any one country. Nor allow

any one country the benefit of printing/digitizing the rest of the world into such a mess as we now face.

At times I also wonder if this is not something string pullers have been working towards for a long time anyway.

In a sense they are already there with Central Banking & swapping.

One thing is certain the same string pullers that ultimately controls now will control then.

Edited April 29, 2012 by flying

[Naam]

It seems like whatever county or countries became the new reserve currency would win in the long run. Perhaps China?

relax BT, your as well as my remaining statistical life span will prevent us to find out which will be the next reserve currency after the [alleged] demise of the US-Dollars. by the way, a much overlooked fact is that there is no actual need to have a reserve currency. especially not a currency that fluctuated and still fluctuates since the Dollar was floated. it made sense to have a reserve currency when "Bretton Woods" was implemented, that is it made sense for one country only which benefitted tremendously and still benefits to a certain extent.

the trend is and will be bilateral, or perhaps multilateral, agreements and currencies used by the signatories of these agreements even though one or even both currencies might have restrictions attached and are not freely tradeable. the beauty and benefit of these agreements are non-fluctuating values preset in volume and agreed to be valid for a certain time. the "BRICs" have started and others will follow.

[hhgz]

Why worry about something that's not going to happen?

[canuckoverseas]

Hyperinflation in the US is a fantasy of goldbugs. Never going to happen. The US economy is actually recovering (ok, too slowly, but it is recovering).

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

It seems like whatever county or countries became the new reserve currency would win in the long run. Perhaps China?

relax BT, your as well as my remaining statistical life span will prevent us to find out which will be the next reserve currency after the [alleged] demise of the US-Dollars. by the way, a much overlooked fact is that there is no actual need to have a reserve currency. especially not a currency that fluctuated and still fluctuates since the Dollar was floated. it made sense to have a reserve currency when "Bretton Woods" was implemented, that is it made sense for one country only which benefitted tremendously and still benefits to a certain extent.

the trend is and will be bilateral, or perhaps multilateral, agreements and currencies used by the signatories of these agreements even though one or even both currencies might have restrictions attached and are not freely tradeable. the beauty and benefit of these agreements are non-fluctuating values preset in volume and agreed to be valid for a certain time. the "BRICs" have started and others will follow.

Hope you and Flying are right Herr Doktor, as it would mess up my plans if it did happen. But I've read about it in about 4 different reports in the last week so thought I would fish for some opinions. You know how it is you hear something enough times from enough people and you begin to wonder it it is true.

[AZBill]

Been hearing this noise for decades. Never happen. The only hyper inflation I experience is when I'm in bed with my lovely wife!

[12DrinkMore]

Been hearing this noise for decades. Never happen. The only hyper inflation I experience is when I'm in bed with my lovely wife!

You mean she's gone from demanding a motorcycle to a Benz?

[Naam]

Hope you and Flying are right Herr Doktor, as it would mess up my plans if it did happen. But I've read about it in about 4 different reports in the last week so thought I would fish for some opinions. You know how it is you hear something enough times from enough people and you begin to wonder it it is true.

it doesn't take long to pick a dozen reports pro and a dozen reports contra for any financial forecast.

[12DrinkMore]

It seems like whatever county or countries became the new reserve currency would win in the long run. Perhaps China?

relax BT, your as well as my remaining statistical life span will prevent us to find out which will be the next reserve currency after the [alleged] demise of the US-Dollars. by the way, a much overlooked fact is that there is no actual need to have a reserve currency. especially not a currency that fluctuated and still fluctuates since the Dollar was floated. it made sense to have a reserve currency when "Bretton Woods" was implemented, that is it made sense for one country only which benefitted tremendously and still benefits to a certain extent.

the trend is and will be bilateral, or perhaps multilateral, agreements and currencies used by the signatories of these agreements even though one or even both currencies might have restrictions attached and are not freely tradeable. the beauty and benefit of these agreements are non-fluctuating values preset in volume and agreed to be valid for a certain time. the "BRICs" have started and others will follow.

Have to agree with Naam.

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/26/dollars-dominance-ending-countries-around-the-world-are-already-starting-to-ditch-the-dollar/

Bilateral currency swaps provide stability for both parties over the time of the agreement. They reduce the cost of trade and eliminate to a large extent the ability of speculators and bankers to skim off the real trade.

At the other end of the spectrum we have those with another "Big fuc_king Plan" to inflict a single world currency with a single world bank. One effect of this would be to further separate money from the real producers of wealth and stick it into the pockets of the bankers. Simultaneously all the worlds' trade and sovereign nations would be fastened into a straighjacket, similar what those EuroPrats have done with the Euro and the former sovereign nations, once able to make their own economic policies and now subject to the harsh dictatorship of the European Council and the IMF, with heads of state being non-elected instruments of the European Council.

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/04/gerald-celente-new-reserve-currency-after-2012-election-gld-slv-uup-iau-udn-sgol/

Through bilateral currency swaps huge trade imbalances should not occur, and the power over your own fiscal and monetary policies stays with the sovereign nation. Which is where it belongs.

Not to a bunch of remote EuroPrats, not to a handful of Anglo-American bankers and not to a declining Superpower, self appointed global policeman and would be dictator of other sovereign nations.

[kanderson]

Wouldn't commodities like gold be a "reserve " and already priced into the market for dollars etc..

Geological or man made disasters affect markets. America is a big chunk of output - what could happen ? Obviously many things - just like anywhere else.

[bangkokburning]

Really two kinds of inflation. Classic inflation may never come to US, that is too many dollars chasing to few goods. The world is awash in cheap production. Is this US and now Europe actively debasing it's currency - you bet. Will this stop? Sooner or later. What repercussions will this debt have on the nation? Could be quite severe.

Will the dollar strengthen to levels today or decades ago - hardly.

Can a lack of oil or even water take us into uncharted economic territories? Absolutely.

Can the world handle another billion or even two billion people in poverty? We shall see.

Unless you are living in the wilderness, surrounded by ramparts with gardens green and a stream flowing through your property and a safe full of silver and gold. You will be just as screwed as the rest of us.

Take jim Rogers advice - become a farmer!

[FangFerang]

Every dollar printed is backed by the United States government. Since the U.S. is by far the largest economy in the world (with a GDP of over $14.3 trillion) its money is far from worthless.

The United States dollar is not a "global standard" currency. In fact, there is no such thing. Nearly every sovereign government prints its own money. The dollar is, however, the most commonly held reserve currency in the world, and it is the unit of measure on many global commodities markets.

It is also one of the most stable currencies on the planet. Yes, its value fluctuates against the Euro and the Pound and the Yuan. That might make it inconvenient for you to buy things wherever you live. But the dollar is backed by the force of the United States government, and there is almost no danger of it ever collapsing in value.

No country would refuse the U.S. Dollar. Frankly, that doesn't make any sense. You can trade dollars for local currency in any country in the world.

[Naam]

But the dollar is backed by the force of the United States government, and there is almost no danger of it ever collapsing in value.

signed:

Santa Claus and Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer

[bangkokburning]

No one will refuse the dollar - I mean people accept Myanmar's Kyat, Lao's Kip and Cambodia's Riel. The question is the rate of exchange and to that end - it may well prove to have severe issues in that anything is only worth what someone will trade for it. A gold coin, a US note, a Thai baht.

When it is stated will the US dollar become worthless - well, that is a crash and burn scenario. Fearmongers forget the world (esp the modern world) MUST trade. They also forget that ALL currencies are fiat.

What we clearly can see at this very moment is a degree of worthlessness if you will. USD is worth roughly 30% of what it was not so long ago, to the end it is indeed worth less!

Smart persons might hold Chinese currency - but the notion that China would become the defacto world currency - that ain't never gonna happen. Who trusts the Chinese in general? Who trusts National Communists with money? Wait for all the scandals to hit from the CP and even the Politburo. Everyone forgets when US banking system was in full bubble mode the reports on NPAs in China. Add to this the how the higher ups use the system - China is just now in sort of a gold rush boom town mode. It is awash in money. When the dust settles and someone has to pay mind to the balance sheets - it ain't gonna look half as glorious. Zakaria on his GPS reported that some time ago a press release from the central bank put theft and movement of monies abroad into the hundreds of billions. Go ahead and trust em' I dare you!

Edited May 1, 2012 by bangkokburning

[jsflynn603]

See if you can get a copy of "The Penniless Billionaires" by Max Shapiro. You can buy a used copy on ebay or half for between $35-70.

A superb book on the how/why of inflation--just superb.

"The US dollar will never become worthess" Interesting word: "worthless = worth less."

Four US quarters (25 cent pieces) from 1964 today can be sold for about $22 in greebacks. That means that todays dollar NOW is 95.5% Worth Less than it was in 1964.

It has ALREADY come to pass--and it's not just gold or silver. In 1964 gas was 29.9 cents per gallon, using gasoline as a bellweather the dollar is NOW worth less and has dropped in purhasing power by 89%.

The US is printing Trillions! Citiban, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and other banks now have over $60 TRILLION dollars in derivatives worth far, far less then their notional value.

If you want to think that the dollar is safe------go for it.

Edited June 16, 2012 by jsflynn603

[yoshiwara]

It seems like whatever county or countries became the new reserve currency would win in the long run. Perhaps China?

relax BT, your as well as my remaining statistical life span will prevent us to find out which will be the next reserve currency after the [alleged] demise of the US-Dollars. by the way, a much overlooked fact is that there is no actual need to have a reserve currency. especially not a currency that fluctuated and still fluctuates since the Dollar was floated. it made sense to have a reserve currency when "Bretton Woods" was implemented, that is it made sense for one country only which benefitted tremendously and still benefits to a certain extent.

the trend is and will be bilateral, or perhaps multilateral, agreements and currencies used by the signatories of these agreements even though one or even both currencies might have restrictions attached and are not freely tradeable. the beauty and benefit of these agreements are non-fluctuating values preset in volume and agreed to be valid for a certain time. the "BRICs" have started and others will follow.

Hope you and Flying are right Herr Doktor, as it would mess up my plans if it did happen. But I've read about it in about 4 different reports in the last week so thought I would fish for some opinions. You know how it is you hear something enough times from enough people and you begin to wonder it it is true.

Why don't you give us all a laugh and tell us where your 4 different reports came from.

[gregb]

I personally expect to see the USD hyperinflate before I die, but I certainly wouldn't guarantee it. The global industrial economy is big enough that it can keep going long after it has supposedly been derailed. As for who benefits? Given that I think this economic disaster is going to set off a new round of global wars I doubt anyone is going to benefit. It is almost certain misery for everyone. Unless by benefit you mean a few isolated Amazonian tribes will finally be free of all that illegal forest encroachment due to the relentless demands of industry. Short of that, I think you are looking at severe economic depressions in the best countries and total economic devastation in the worst.

That will be followed by slight recoveries and then even more economic disaster as the relentless collapse of the global industrial economy continues. A few centuries from now a new equilibrium will be established at a much lower level of complexity, but I seriously doubt that world is going to look anything like the highly consumer oriented, capitalist society we know today. If I had to guess from history, I would expect that economy to be largely agrarian and based on a type of new feudalism.

One thing is for sure. Don't be too curious about what will happen when it comes, because I think it will be mighty unpleasant for everyone. Just hope that you aren't around to see it.

[MrRealDeal]

dude get real .... millions of city people are going to move to the country and take up farming ? LOL ..... The land owners are just going to give up their land so they can farm ? The world economy collapses and broke people are going to buy land and farming equipment with exactly what ? Half of the city people couldn't tell the difference between a cow and a moose or how to grow corn or strawberrys. I guess all these now broke people are going to build a new house on their new land with their new farming equipment with loans from the broke banks ?

And exactly what part of history is it that you base this on ? When was it in history that we have given up tecnology in favor of your agrarian society ?

LOL

[yoshiwara]

I personally expect to see the USD hyperinflate before I die, but I certainly wouldn't guarantee it. The global industrial economy is big enough that it can keep going long after it has supposedly been derailed. As for who benefits? Given that I think this economic disaster is going to set off a new round of global wars I doubt anyone is going to benefit. It is almost certain misery for everyone. Unless by benefit you mean a few isolated Amazonian tribes will finally be free of all that illegal forest encroachment due to the relentless demands of industry. Short of that, I think you are looking at severe economic depressions in the best countries and total economic devastation in the worst.

That will be followed by slight recoveries and then even more economic disaster as the relentless collapse of the global industrial economy continues. A few centuries from now a new equilibrium will be established at a much lower level of complexity, but I seriously doubt that world is going to look anything like the highly consumer oriented, capitalist society we know today. If I had to guess from history, I would expect that economy to be largely agrarian and based on a type of new feudalism.

One thing is for sure. Don't be too curious about what will happen when it comes, because I think it will be mighty unpleasant for everyone. Just hope that you aren't around to see it.

Crystal balls time.

[edgarfriendly]

Hypothetically, most murrkins would stop pretending to not be fascist, racist, xenophobes.....and no one would notice any difference.

as a result of hyperinflation.

'he's got a weapon, shoot to kill'

weapon = mic, cam, truth, blog, weed.