Thai Stockmarket Big Picture

[cheeryble]

Hi there

(I have searched, but all threads on Thai market are getting old.)

I've just been stimulated by being told that Allied Irish, where I have an account, are closing in the Channel Isles.

So I want to use the funds I have there and some another deposit to the best advantage.

I already have stock interests in and via the US, and I live here in Thailand.

So I thought of another deposit account venue perhaps in 5% Oz, but hey deposits are just a way of trying to keep up with inflation.

So what about Thailand?

I nearly got in the market here a few years ago.....it would be looking very good by now, as is my Thai property.

I look at the Thai market chart and think like this:

Forget the market up to and after the crash. Regard it as irrational uneducated exuberance.

Consider the general trend up from 2000.

Well doing that it looks healthy, but right now at somewhat above the moving average. It's around a possible peak.

Question 1.

Is now a good time or wait for a pullback......or average in?

Next, we have the combination of two things dangerous for the Thai market happening, one is unsure, about the reds and yellows and Thaksin and all that.

Question 2

How do I think about the political situation vis a vis the market?

The other unmentionable event is a certainty, its just a matter of when.

One can only guess the market will drop strongly.

Question 3

Do I wait, possibly many years, for this to happen, and have a preplanned strategy to jump in after an X% drop for a long term hold?

Question 4

Obviously dividend stocks are yielding less as the prices are up. What actually are typical yields on good quality stocks which one may expect to rise healthily?

Question 5

What are good sources for checking Thai stocks?

Question 6

Any other investments of any sort but preferably non $ related.....I have enough.

Thanks for any and all informed advice. Forgive me for being lazy and asking Question 5 but hey why not use others' experience ?

[farang000999]

dont worry about thai politics worry about usa and european politics.

[ExpatJ]

I have been in Thai stocks for about 2 years now. First year i made 30% profit (admittedly a large part was on one good buy) and 12 % the second year.

There are some good dividend stocks and good growth stocks. I have also found that technical analysis seems to be quite effective in the thai market.

Are you based in bangkok? I was thinking of forming a small Thai stock investors group to swap tips.

[salavan]

"as is MY thai property" think again chum unless its an apartment its not your thai property

[cheeryble]

Are you based in bangkok? I was thinking of forming a small Thai stock investors group to swap tips.

Chiangmai.

Good luck with your group but careful not to let any "financial advisers" in.

The one thing they all have in common is they're still working

[ppam888]

A lot of the big companies have really low dividend yields around 2-3%, probably largely due to their popularity (price increase).

But there are some that have extremely good dividends in the range of 8-10%. But again, these prices have gone up a lot and maybe they are overpriced. One would need to do a DCF analysis to find out whether they are in fact overpriced or not.

However, last few days theyve been going down (like the rest of the world). but today was funny because Thai stocks went down way more than other countries/continents. Apparently it was foreigners who sold most of them. If this panic sell continues, there could be good buying opportunities.

ExpatJ, I am based in Bangkok and would be interested in a little investors group....I dont use technical analysis at all tho and currently trying to be a value investor (altho more open minded than Warren Buffett). But would be interesting to swap ideas with someone on the opposite side.....

[ExpatJ]

A lot of the big companies have really low dividend yields around 2-3%, probably largely due to their popularity (price increase).

But there are some that have extremely good dividends in the range of 8-10%. But again, these prices have gone up a lot and maybe they are overpriced. One would need to do a DCF analysis to find out whether they are in fact overpriced or not.

However, last few days theyve been going down (like the rest of the world). but today was funny because Thai stocks went down way more than other countries/continents. Apparently it was foreigners who sold most of them. If this panic sell continues, there could be good buying opportunities.

ExpatJ, I am based in Bangkok and would be interested in a little investors group....I dont use technical analysis at all tho and currently trying to be a value investor (altho more open minded than Warren Buffett). But would be interesting to swap ideas with someone on the opposite side.....

The two months leading up to dividend season are always my most profitable- i buy dividend paying stocks (3.5 %+) that are over sold (using the RSI indicator) in that period then sell a day or two before the XD date- great short term profits.

[fletchsmile]

Most of your questions centre around timing of the investment. My views:

I'd agree that 2000 onwards is a more relevant historical period to look at. Thailand is a very different place to 1997, so I believe that distorts the picture. Thailand learnt it's lessons and has changed the finance approach, policies and banking system since 1997. On the other hand West has been somewhat complacent.

As for politics, Thailand has a habit of shooting itself in the foot, but businesses and the economy just carry on, although occasionally the political situation causes temporary blips they are soon overcome.

On the unmentionable. Yes it will happen. Stock market will probably dive initially due to uncertainty, then things will carry on and get back to normal.

If you're investing long term, and averaging in money, then I'd say go ahead and start now, as Thailand has good potential for returns longer term, and THB returns particularly useful for currency purposes if you live here. Baht cost averaging will work in your favour.

If looking shorter term and for trading, I'd personally say wait for a pullback. Thai stocks have had a great run so far this year, and look fully priced with average SET P/Es of around 16, and div yield of around 3.6% (Slightly below longer run averages reflecting higher prices) . I like Phillips commentary and charts on timing and usually spend a minute each day to read:

http://www.poems.in.th/home/en/index.htm

https://datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/Englishshort.pdf

https://datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/come.pdf

You may find the other thread of Thai stocks for long term investors of interest, although I'd say the focus is not really long term investment but shorter and mid-term trading, as lay people often interchange the words trading and investing in every day use.

[cheeryble]

I'd agree that 2000 onwards is a more relevant historical period to look at. Thailand is a very different place to 1997, so I believe that distorts the picture. Thailand learnt it's lessons and has changed the finance approach, policies and banking system since 1997. On the other hand West has been somewhat complacent.

As for politics, Thailand has a habit of shooting itself in the foot, but businesses and the economy just carry on, although occasionally the political situation causes temporary blips they are soon overcome.

My sentiments entirely Fletch. Despite a lot of verbiage the Thais always seem to muddle through.

When the rubber hits the road there could well be real trouble, but I think from an investment viewpoint one can say long term that neither side are exactly left wing activists and they seek to emulate Singapore and as a long policy will look after the markets.

I am bored with trading and would like to park money longer term, though I might seek advantageous entry points.

Thanks for the links!

What is the other thread you speak of?

Cheeryble

[cheeryble]

A lot of the big companies have really low dividend yields around 2-3%, probably largely due to their popularity (price increase).

But there are some that have extremely good dividends in the range of 8-10%.

Historically PPam big dividend payers don't perform as well overall as the "low" payers you decry.

Look through the US market at the quality companies that have performed best and they tend to pay out about 2 or 3 %

Having said that we should be getting a bit of risk premium here

The two months leading up to dividend season are always my most profitable- i buy dividend paying stocks (3.5 %+) that are over sold (using the RSI indicator) in that period then sell a day or two before the XD date- great short term profits.

That sounds interesting Expat.

How many years have you done that?

[ppam888]

A lot of the big companies have really low dividend yields around 2-3%, probably largely due to their popularity (price increase).

But there are some that have extremely good dividends in the range of 8-10%.

Historically PPam big dividend payers don't perform as well overall as the "low" payers you decry.

Look through the US market at the quality companies that have performed best and they tend to pay out about 2 or 3 %

Having said that we should be getting a bit of risk premium here

Im not really decrying them. A lot of the big companies in Thailand that I hold are in the 2-3% range. These companies are well established, some part owned by the government, they will basically be around a long time and reinvest a lot of their profits. I was kinda answering the OP about typical dividend yields.

I dont think you should categorize them on how much they pay dividends anyway. I know of some very established companies in Thailand which pay handsome dividends (obviously their prices have rocketed in recent months/years. And I also know some companies with great dividens, but which I would not be comfortable holding for a long time.

You should be maximizing your returns while managing your risk, and sometimes high dividends can be extremely useful.

[cheeryble]

A lot of the big companies in Thailand that I hold are in the 2-3% range. These companies are well established, some part owned by the government, they will basically be around a long time and reinvest a lot of their profits. I was kinda answering the OP about typical dividend yields.

I dont think you should categorize them on how much they pay dividends anyway. I know of some very established companies in Thailand which pay handsome dividends (obviously their prices have rocketed in recent months/years. And I also know some companies with great dividens, but which I would not be comfortable holding for a long time.

You should be maximizing your returns while managing your risk, and sometimes high dividends can be extremely useful.

Hi Ppam

If you're feeling generous l'd be very interested in hearing more about what you consider the better picks amongst both the lower and higher div payers, even more generous would be a brief rundown on what are their attributes as you see them.

I've decided to send my GBP here anyway changed into baht as I have concerns about the Eurozone which mess will affect markets everywhere. If we see a Thai dip in sympathy at that time a good entry point may appear. This could easily happen this summer or autumn.

Thanks for the input!

Cheeryble

[ExpatJ]

A lot of the big companies have really low dividend yields around 2-3%, probably largely due to their popularity (price increase).

But there are some that have extremely good dividends in the range of 8-10%.

Historically PPam big dividend payers don't perform as well overall as the "low" payers you decry.

Look through the US market at the quality companies that have performed best and they tend to pay out about 2 or 3 %

Having said that we should be getting a bit of risk premium here

The two months leading up to dividend season are always my most profitable- i buy dividend paying stocks (3.5 %+) that are over sold (using the RSI indicator) in that period then sell a day or two before the XD date- great short term profits.

That sounds interesting Expat.

How many years have you done that?

Around 2 years- this year unfortunately my stocks cash was tied up (in stocks) but i did have enough for one trade , which i posted about in another thread- i cut and paste it below:

i have a list of 10-15 expatj blue chip growth stocks (selected with my own combo of indicators- will share this info on my website soon) and i determine when to buy them using technical analysis (RSI, moving averages, bollinger bands) and then sell 1-4 weeks later normally. So March 3 i see GFPT hits close to 30 RSI (oversold) and i note its dividend date is april 2 (meaning price is likely to also rise as people buy into it for the dividend payment)- today, March 29, i sold and took a 1000 US$ profit. Earlier this week i tried to sell at an even higher price but the volume was just not there (be careful if you invest significant money, some thai stocks are very illiquid)