Gold Prices To Continue To Drop, Says Expert

[farang000999]

do we really need multiple gold threads?

[yoshiwara]

you are so tunnel visioned I am convinced you must be an estate agent or a financial adviser

it doesn't get any plainer than this-

Signs that property market in Hong Kong is cooling as land sells for less than expected

http://www.propertyw...1205096505.html

'Er no I am not an estate agent or a realtor. And that article is talking about land sales in new areas. I am not interested in new developments. I am interested in the historic heart of Hong Kong namely the West of the Island and am an owner. My one reluctance in recommending purchase is that property cost is rather a lot and if one cannot afford the entry price it is not an option. The same thing would apply to Zone 1 in London compared to the rest of the UK. It is one of my suggestions re focussing on income and dividends to financially navigate forwards. Income and dividends. Zero with gold.

but you dont get dividends when you pay for insurance either

and like i said before i and many others are holding

gold as an insurance.

BTW i hope you have paid the premium to buy sufficient put options to adequately

cover your shares in case of a sudden market crash

and how would you get income on your property if as a result of a

Euro collapse for example your tenants lose their jobs ?

Too many ifs and Mad Max analysis for me. You are perfectly entitled to what you perceive to be your uber defensive position. The trouble with the gold bugs is that they consider that there is only one position to take and that all other asset class holdings are worthless. They are people who are scared and spooked by the markets. With regards to shares, I consider blue chip shares present less risk. Re my property I continue to receive rent through the whole crisis. I don't say that this is the only strategy or 100% risk free. Business is built on risk. What the gold bugs have discovered is that holding gold is not a risk-free activity. It is volatile. What I want is an income. Sticking all one's wealth in a supposedly risk-free placement on something which produces no business activity (jewellery?) other than digging it up and then hiding it. As I said before I have no problem with gold traders or even gold miners, but just sitting on one's worldly goods in the form of gold coins? I don't think so. I get income which I can spend. You look at your bag of coins and worry about the future.

[Jayman]

you are so tunnel visioned I am convinced you must be an estate agent or a financial adviser

it doesn't get any plainer than this-

Signs that property market in Hong Kong is cooling as land sells for less than expected

http://www.propertyw...1205096505.html

'Er no I am not an estate agent or a realtor. And that article is talking about land sales in new areas. I am not interested in new developments. I am interested in the historic heart of Hong Kong namely the West of the Island and am an owner. My one reluctance in recommending purchase is that property cost is rather a lot and if one cannot afford the entry price it is not an option. The same thing would apply to Zone 1 in London compared to the rest of the UK. It is one of my suggestions re focussing on income and dividends to financially navigate forwards. Income and dividends. Zero with gold.

but you dont get dividends when you pay for insurance either

and like i said before i and many others are holding

gold as an insurance.

BTW i hope you have paid the premium to buy sufficient put options to adequately

cover your shares in case of a sudden market crash

and how would you get income on your property if as a result of a

Euro collapse for example your tenants lose their jobs ?

Too many ifs and Mad Max analysis for me. You are perfectly entitled to what you perceive to be your uber defensive position. The trouble with the gold bugs is that they consider that there is only one position to take and that all other asset class holdings are worthless. They are people who are scared and spooked by the markets. With regards to shares, I consider blue chip shares present less risk. Re my property I continue to receive rent through the whole crisis. I don't say that this is the only strategy or 100% risk free. Business is built on risk. What the gold bugs have discovered is that holding gold is not a risk-free activity. It is volatile. What I want is an income. Sticking all one's wealth in a supposedly risk-free placement on something which produces no business activity (jewellery?) other than digging it up and then hiding it. As I said before I have no problem with gold traders or even gold miners, but just sitting on one's worldly goods in the form of gold coins? I don't think so. I get income which I can spend. You look at your bag of coins and worry about the future.

I think you are unfairly generalizing any one that wants to own physical gold as a gold bug. Then you continue to make sweeping and inaccurate statements as to what these gold bugs believe.

Just because someone sees the benefit of holding physical gold in their portfolio doesn't make them a bug.

Edited May 26, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

There is constant chatter about the 'forthcoming HK property crash', but it just doesn't happen. Cheaper property in prime areas hold its value very well and generates good income. The problem is the entry price which is expensive.

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

Edited May 26, 2012 by Jayman

[yoshiwara]

There is constant chatter about the 'forthcoming HK property crash', but it just doesn't happen. Cheaper property in prime areas hold its value very well and generates good income. The problem is the entry price which is expensive.

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

That's why entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers. You live with your bag of coins in fear of the future creating nothing and receiving no income from dead metal and I get a monthly income from managing a business activity. If that's what you want to do its fine with me. What drives gold bugs crazy though is the idea that other assets are other than worthless so they construct fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on. They live on Planet Eventually and remind me of the crazy preachers holding forth every Sunday at Speakers' Corner.

[Jayman]

There is constant chatter about the 'forthcoming HK property crash', but it just doesn't happen. Cheaper property in prime areas hold its value very well and generates good income. The problem is the entry price which is expensive.

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

That's why entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers. You live with your bag of coins in fear of the future creating nothing and receiving no income from dead metal and I get a monthly income from managing a business activity. If that's what you want to do its fine with me. What drives gold bugs crazy though is the idea that other assets are other than worthless so they construct fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on. They live on Planet Eventually and remind me of the crazy preachers holding forth every Sunday at Speakers' Corner.

You sure have me nailed. That's right, I sit here with my bag of coins making no income. I don't eat nor do I support my family. In fact, we all sleep in the streets since our bag of coins offers us nothing but dead weight we carry around waiting for the Apocalypse and then we can use our coins to buy a place in heaven.

[yoshiwara]

There is constant chatter about the 'forthcoming HK property crash', but it just doesn't happen. Cheaper property in prime areas hold its value very well and generates good income. The problem is the entry price which is expensive.

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

That's why entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers. You live with your bag of coins in fear of the future creating nothing and receiving no income from dead metal and I get a monthly income from managing a business activity. If that's what you want to do its fine with me. What drives gold bugs crazy though is the idea that other assets are other than worthless so they construct fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on. They live on Planet Eventually and remind me of the crazy preachers holding forth every Sunday at Speakers' Corner.

You sure have me nailed. That's right, I sit here with my bag of coins making no income. I don't eat nor do I support my family. In fact, we all sleep in the streets since our bag of coins offers us nothing but dead weight we carry around waiting for the Apocalypse and then we can use our coins to buy a place in heaven.

There is a solution.

[Jayman]

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

That's why entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers. You live with your bag of coins in fear of the future creating nothing and receiving no income from dead metal and I get a monthly income from managing a business activity. If that's what you want to do its fine with me. What drives gold bugs crazy though is the idea that other assets are other than worthless so they construct fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on. They live on Planet Eventually and remind me of the crazy preachers holding forth every Sunday at Speakers' Corner.

You sure have me nailed. That's right, I sit here with my bag of coins making no income. I don't eat nor do I support my family. In fact, we all sleep in the streets since our bag of coins offers us nothing but dead weight we carry around waiting for the Apocalypse and then we can use our coins to buy a place in heaven.

There is a solution.

Solution for a sweet tooth maybe...

Preacher man, don't tell me,

Heaven is under the earth.

I know you don't know

What life is really worth.

It's not all that glitters is gold;

'Alf the story has never been told:

So now you see the light, eh!

Stand up for your rights. come on!

Bob Marley/Peter Tosh

Edited May 26, 2012 by Jayman

[yoshiwara]

Well I don't know why I came here tonight,

I got the feeling that something ain't right,

I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,

And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,

Clowns to the left of me,

Jokers to the right, here I am,

Stuck in the middle with you.

[midas]

There is constant chatter about the 'forthcoming HK property crash', but it just doesn't happen. Cheaper property in prime areas hold its value very well and generates good income. The problem is the entry price which is expensive.

Just cause it has yet to happen does not mean it won't.

That's why entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers. You live with your bag of coins in fear of the future creating nothing and receiving no income from dead metal and I get a monthly income from managing a business activity. If that's what you want to do its fine with me. What drives gold bugs crazy though is the idea that other assets are other than worthless so they construct fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on. They live on Planet Eventually and remind me of the crazy preachers holding forth every Sunday at Speakers' Corner.

Yoshiwara I can’t work you out at all. Your views are not consistent......

After reading your posts I am sometimes left with a feeling that is best described by the Australian term “ you are having a lend of us “ or as the Brits say “ you are having a giraffe.”

You talk in terms of Mad Max scenarios and “fantastical views of society totally collapsing and the world as we know it ending and so on “. BUT you have conceded yourself the world economy is in a mess because you wrote “ in post #185 in the thread entitled “Pound Hits 50, How Long Will The Trend Last? “ that “Europe is a fiscal mess. The US has a fiscal mess.”

I don't think it is difficult even for a school student studying economics to realise that we are in a mess because of too much debt and we are simply at the end of a 30 year debt binge. No one has any viable solution as to how to address the problem. I don't consider there is anything Mad Max about that? Based on history we know that central bankers are very likely going to be tempted to print more fiat money and to devalue that money even further.

You said yourself in the same post that “entrepreneurs and business people are calculated risk takers.”

So let me ask you what is wrong with those of us who are taking a calculated risk in buying gold instead of income generating assets because we firmly believe that there will be some serious economic occurence as a result of this overspending by governments?

Japan could also be considered a fiscal mess because a public debt of almost 240% in a slowing world economy is worrying to say the least particularly when related to their demographic trends.

And according to the respected economist Steve Keen Australia is also suffering from the effects of a debt bubble.

So which countries are left-Africa, South America, Russia and China with the rest of Asia.Even the Vice Premier of China Wang Qishan has admitted China is slowing down.

http://www.dailyfina...le-for-the-u-s/

You started off your posts by saying “ The continuing problem is essentially not a banking problem, but a political problem.” But I put it to you that it's both a banking problem and a political problem because politicians are clearly under the direct influence of bankers.” And please don't come out with your usual garbage about conspiracy theories because it's there on the record about Goldman Sachs financing the candidates.

So until we see a light at the end of the tunnel I see no justification to be anything but defensive.

like I said in my earlier post in my opinion there is every reason to believe we are at the equivalent

of Japan's stock market and economy 20 years ago. But this time it's on a global basis.

Edited May 27, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

So until we see a light at the end of the tunnel I see no justification to be anything but defensive.

like I said in my earlier post in my opinion there is every reason to believe we are at the equivalent

of Japan's stock market and economy 20 years ago. But this time it's on a global basis.

i hate it when i have to agree with you Midas! but when i have to agree... then i have to.

[churchill]

So until we see a light at the end of the tunnel I see no justification to be anything but defensive.

like I said in my earlier post in my opinion there is every reason to believe we are at the equivalent

of Japan's stock market and economy 20 years ago. But this time it's on a global basis.

i hate it when i have to agree with you Midas! but when i have to agree... then i have to.

and knowing what has happened in Japan .. where does one invest today ?

Edited May 27, 2012 by churchill

[yoshiwara]

I had better start off by saying that I thought Lloyd Blankfein made sense in front of Carl Levin who was both boorish and playing to the gallery. I also think that two of George W. Bush's more inspired appointments were those of Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. President Obama inherited both. My main objection to gold bugs is that they consider that gold is the only show in town and that gold is the only protection against total collapse. I have absolutely no doubt that there is a debt management problem, particularly in the West. The solution of course is business growth and business activity. Gold makes little or no contribution outside of jewellery and is purely a fear trade. There is no way to assign a use value to it. Oil I understand. it is something useful. So much for my witterings. If I am talking to someone who is a gold trader, even a day trader and that is what he does, fine go for it. He will buy/sell/short/ and trade that asset class. Fascinating stuff as are oil traders or any other commodity. But to be the all-in gold bug 100% devoted to coins because he doesn't trust the markets and making a 100% long bet on total collapse? They live in fear and want to spread that fear around. Misery likes company. For the last 6 months the $USD has been the place to be, you know the $USD which is supposed to be falling apart. The trader can be flexible and react. The gold bug just gets shriller. Maybe in the second half of the year time to re-assess and hedge depending on how one thinks the US election and the expiring Bush tax cuts turn out. The thing is that not only has gold lost 20% in 6 months, but if you add on the dividend or interest you didn't get, that's another 2-4%. So, not much short of a 25% dive. That is volatility however you want to look at it and let's be clear here the gold bugs were advising purchasing gold at $1920. Hell, they say buy 100% of the time and for coins that would have been another premium on top of the $1920. They think that capitalism is going to collapse. I don't. And I want an income. And I am not into numismatics either.

Edited May 27, 2012 by yoshiwara

[Naam]

So until we see a light at the end of the tunnel I see no justification to be anything but defensive.

like I said in my earlier post in my opinion there is every reason to believe we are at the equivalent

of Japan's stock market and economy 20 years ago. But this time it's on a global basis.

i hate it when i have to agree with you Midas! but when i have to agree... then i have to.

and knowing what has happened in Japan .. where does one invest today ?

x% in high yield/high risk investment generating worthless fiat to cover living expenses,

x% in worthless USD fiat cash and local currency (ratio 50:50),

x% in worthless fiat US Treasuries (3-m and 6-m maturities), highly liquid and tradeable 24hours / 5¾ days a week yielding zero,

x% physical gold,

x% in income producing agricultural land,

x% in selected works of art which one is willing to sell should the need arise.

individual mileages/percentages vary considerably and some might change from one day to another!

p.s. to compensate for a situation such as Japan is a piece of cake.

[Naam]

For the last 6 months the $USD has been the place to be, you know the $USD which is supposed to be falling apart.

p.s.

$USD = USD or US$ =

[midas]

So until we see a light at the end of the tunnel I see no justification to be anything but defensive.

like I said in my earlier post in my opinion there is every reason to believe we are at the equivalent

of Japan's stock market and economy 20 years ago. But this time it's on a global basis.

i hate it when i have to agree with you Midas! but when i have to agree... then i have to.

i dont know what to say Naam .....I've got a lump to my throat

this is truly an historic occasion

[midas]

I had better start off by saying that I thought Lloyd Blankfein made sense in front of Carl Levin who was both boorish and playing to the gallery. I also think that two of George W. Bush's more inspired appointments were those of Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. President Obama inherited both. My main objection to gold bugs is that they consider that gold is the only show in town and that gold is the only protection against total collapse. I have absolutely no doubt that there is a debt management problem, particularly in the West. The solution of course is business growth and business activity. Gold makes little or no contribution outside of jewellery and is purely a fear trade. There is no way to assign a use value to it. Oil I understand. it is something useful. So much for my witterings. If I am talking to someone who is a gold trader, even a day trader and that is what he does, fine go for it. He will buy/sell/short/ and trade that asset class. Fascinating stuff as are oil traders or any other commodity. But to be the all-in gold bug 100% devoted to coins because he doesn't trust the markets and making a 100% long bet on total collapse? They live in fear and want to spread that fear around. Misery likes company. For the last 6 months the $USD has been the place to be, you know the $USD which is supposed to be falling apart. The trader can be flexible and react. The gold bug just gets shriller. Maybe in the second half of the year time to re-assess and hedge depending on how one thinks the US election and the expiring Bush tax cuts turn out. The thing is that not only has gold lost 20% in 6 months, but if you add on the dividend or interest you didn't get, that's another 2-4%. So, not much short of a 25% dive. That is volatility however you want to look at it and let's be clear here the gold bugs were advising purchasing gold at $1920. Hell, they say buy 100% of the time and for coins that would have been another premium on top of the $1920. They think that capitalism is going to collapse. I don't. And I want an income. And I am not into numismatics either.

My main objection to gold bugs is that they consider that gold is the only show in town and that gold is the only protection against total collapse

no I don't think there is anyone in this thread or in this forum that thinks that way?

and when you say " Gold makes little or no contribution outside of jewellery and is purely a fear trade. "

-at least it not infinite like pieces of printed paper. it is quite obvious

as human beings we don't have the discipline not to take the easy way out

and to start-up the printing presses in a panic.

Until there is clear evidence of restraint in this regard

I would prefer to rely on its history as the ultimate monetary asset for over 2500 years.

Or are you just trying to re- write history ?

Edited May 27, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

i dont know what to say Naam .....I've got a lump to my throat

this is truly an historic occasion

a historic occasion is when you finally agree to come as a guest to my home

(i invited you years ago) and sample with me a bottle of exquisite Port.

there's also, should you prefer, an unopened bottle of (yuckish!) sweet

[churchill]

I had better start off by saying that I thought Lloyd Blankfein made sense in front of Carl Levin who was both boorish and playing to the gallery. I also think that two of George W. Bush's more inspired appointments were those of Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson. President Obama inherited both. My main objection to gold bugs is that they consider that gold is the only show in town and that gold is the only protection against total collapse. I have absolutely no doubt that there is a debt management problem, particularly in the West. The solution of course is business growth and business activity. Gold makes little or no contribution outside of jewellery and is purely a fear trade. There is no way to assign a use value to it. Oil I understand. it is something useful. So much for my witterings. If I am talking to someone who is a gold trader, even a day trader and that is what he does, fine go for it. He will buy/sell/short/ and trade that asset class. Fascinating stuff as are oil traders or any other commodity. But to be the all-in gold bug 100% devoted to coins because he doesn't trust the markets and making a 100% long bet on total collapse? They live in fear and want to spread that fear around. Misery likes company. For the last 6 months the $USD has been the place to be, you know the $USD which is supposed to be falling apart. The trader can be flexible and react. The gold bug just gets shriller. Maybe in the second half of the year time to re-assess and hedge depending on how one thinks the US election and the expiring Bush tax cuts turn out. The thing is that not only has gold lost 20% in 6 months, but if you add on the dividend or interest you didn't get, that's another 2-4%. So, not much short of a 25% dive. That is volatility however you want to look at it and let's be clear here the gold bugs were advising purchasing gold at $1920. Hell, they say buy 100% of the time and for coins that would have been another premium on top of the $1920. They think that capitalism is going to collapse. I don't. And I want an income. And I am not into numismatics either.

I think the answer is not to get too fixed into a pro or anti gold stance ....Go with the flow ..

Gold does not obey rules ... and with uncertainty .. Merkel has a clue ?? where is money going to flow

I don't think anybody is in the Doooooooooom camp but the reality camp and trying to protect our investments/savings ..

Even if it means buying vintage port ..

Edited May 27, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

Merkel has a clue ?

no she doesn't. but she has a carrot and a stick.

[Jayman]

I just finished watching this 4 part investigative expose on the global meltdown that is going on

The men who crashed the world - Meltdown - Al Jazeera English

part 1

Meltdown - The Global Financial Crisis?

[media=]http://youtu.be/nc11O7Efohs

part 2

Edited May 27, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

http://youtu.be/vSxl2fpU7uE

part 3

http://youtu.be/h3VgY1_PzUs

part 4

[midas]

i dont know what to say Naam .....I've got a lump to my throat

this is truly an historic occasion

a historic occasion is when you finally agree to come as a guest to my home

(i invited you years ago) and sample with me a bottle of exquisite Port.

there's also, should you prefer, an unopened bottle of (yuckish!) sweet

i dont know what to say Naam .....I've got a lump to my throat

this is truly an historic occasion

a historic occasion is when you finally agree to come as a guest to my home

(i invited you years ago) and sample with me a bottle of exquisite Port.

there's also, should you prefer, an unopened bottle of (yuckish!) sweet

That was very kind of you Naam

but I spend most of my time near Chiang Mai now

and I very rarely visit your neck of the woods now.

[midas]

Merkel has a clue ?

no she doesn't. but she has a carrot and a stick.

i also think she has been drinking your port !

[Naam]

Merkel has a clue ?

no she doesn't. but she has a carrot and a stick.

i also think she has been drinking your port !

an excellent sample how fake some yewtoob clips are. Merkel speaks fluently Russian and travelled to Russia umpteenth times during her time as FDJ secretary in the former Deutsche Demokratische Republik.

[Bpuumike]

Merkel has a clue ?

no she doesn't. but she has a carrot and a stick.

i also think she has been drinking your port !

an excellent sample how fake some yewtoob clips are. Merkel speaks fluently Russian and travelled to Russia umpteenth times during her time as FDJ secretary in the former Deutsche Demokratische Republik.

A bit off topic but I get the impression your grammar is listing to port this evening

[Naam]

A bit off topic but I get the impression your grammar is listing to port this evening

please indicate where my grammar is listing. english is my third language and i'm always trying to improve.

[xylophone]

Quote Naam, "a historic occasion is when you finally agree to come as a guest to my home (i invited you years ago) and sample with me a bottle of exquisite Port".

Vintage Portuguese Port I hope................only Port worth a mention!

[Naam]

Quote Naam, "a historic occasion is when you finally agree to come as a guest to my home (i invited you years ago) and sample with me a bottle of exquisite Port".

Vintage Portuguese Port I hope................only Port worth a mention!

portuguese for sure, vintage not always.

[farang000999]

i like mcdonalds stock. it survived the last crisis. and much more room for them to grow and it's not like anyone else is using the meat they use, besides maybe dog food companies, so food commodity prices should not be that big of a deal.