Chances Of A Civil War Within The Next Year In Thailand?

[JcCarlin]

With all of the natural disasters and political tensions circulating within LOS, I was curious to hear someone else's premonitions on here.

I feel we are certainly on the brink of war and I only saw my inlaws through tinted glass on one occasion!

[barky]

I don't get the tinted glass reference. You'll need to explain that one.

Many people have their own views on this potetially hot tomalle and like me shall keep their own counsel. Make your plan A and B and keep your eyes and ears open and be ready to react as and when necessary. In the mean time be cool and enjoy.

[waza]

Civil war? Maybe, financial disaster? certainly.

[Jingthing]

Thaksin, as usual, says he's coming back soon. So ...

Objectively, yes there is a chance.

Not sure who can give you accurate odds though.

[chiang mai]

And the baht back to its "normal" level of 70 per Pound.

[jacktrip]

i don't really care. if war broke out here I'd simply leave, easy enough. no volunteer army service from me.

[Payboy]

Bout time they had one I say! I'm sick and tired of these uncivil wars going around.

[DrTuner]

Civil war, 0.1%. Coup, 10%. Thaksin coming back and causing the coup, 20%. I'll go with those odds.

[cdnvic]

Please keep in mind:

[MAJIC]

Quite possibly,depends if a certain person in exile gets his way or not?

[HardenedSoul]

Very, very few foreigners are anywhere near qualified to offer informed opinion on the likelihood of civil war in this country.

The ramblings of the retired intelligence officers with extensive contacts in the Thai army should make for mildly amusing reading, though.

Edited August 22, 2012 by HardenedSoul

[farang000999]

A very large percentage of our members are close friends with very high ranking Thai generals and policeman, so it's not a surprise that they have their finger on the pulse of the country, despite only speaking Thai at a conversational level. Of course, being ex-SAS, they are like walking lie detectors.

[JurgenG]

IMO almost 0% chance of war or coup in the foreseeable future.

In 2005 2006 I was close to some PAD leaders (more exactly there younger collaborators, generation gap). When they were going on with their inflammatory call for revolution, people used to listen and nod with approbation. Not anymore. Nowadays, first they keep more quiet, and then when they still insist with call for civil unrest, people usually shake their head with disapprobation, please not again. ( the crowd I'm talking about is the Bangkok democrats)

It's not that they are in love with the current government but there is a big disillusion with what a coup can achieve. And also the current government is very careful to avoid confrontation about issues that are not considered a priority.

In short, you have one side that is tired of infighting and the other that tries to be the less confrontational as possible. Not exactly a recipe for civil war.

Edited August 22, 2012 by JurgenG

[chiang mai]

My guess is there's less than a one per cent chance of war, whoever controls the army calls the shots hence another coup is possible (but unlikely) but war is not on anyones radar.

Financial collapse: hmm, depends what happens to China and recovery in the west and so many other factors that are not under the direct control of Thailand, on average however I'd much rather have my money in Baht than in Pounds.

[Jingthing]

By definition, the chance is greater than zero percentage.

[Chittychangchang]

My premonition for the next year is.....

Another coup might be favourite or Yingluck will add me as a friend on FB.

I might reach 1000 intelligent posts.

I will get liked 1000 times not by Yingluck, not for want of trying!

Next

[chrisinth]

A very large percentage of our members are close friends with very high ranking Thai generals and policeman, so it's not a surprise that they have their finger on the pulse of the country, despite only speaking Thai at a conversational level. Of course, being ex-SAS, they are like walking lie detectors.

More like in-op explosive detectors IMEHO............

Edit: Additional smiley added to show that I don't really mean that; don't like sleeping with one eye open if I offend the wrong people

Edited August 23, 2012 by chrisinth

[theslime]

Civil War, bit of a misnomer, cant see it happening with 76 or 77 provinces doing their own thing.

[bangkockney]

By definition, the chance is greater than zero percentage.

Not true. I'm sure you can think of your own examples to demonstrate this.

Civil war in Thailand in the next 12 months? 0% chance.

[harryfrompattaya]

Civil War, bit of a misnomer, cant see it happening with 76 or 77 provinces doing their own thing.

My research shows me that th

Very, very few foreigners are anywhere near qualified to offer informed opinion on the likelihood of civil war in this country.

The ramblings of the retired intelligence officers with extensive contacts in the Thai army should make for mildly amusing reading, though.

Right on But you forget the genius on Thai Visa

[siampreggers]

Depends.... will we be wearing black shirts during the next year?

If so, then yes.

[billd766]

i don't really care. if war broke out here I'd simply leave, easy enough. no volunteer army service from me.

I have 2 plans.

Plan A is that I stay here in Thailand with my family.

Plan B, refer to plan A.

[Jingthing]

By definition, the chance is greater than zero percentage.

Not true. I'm sure you can think of your own examples to demonstrate this.

Civil war in Thailand in the next 12 months? 0% chance.

I get your point. Chances of me winning the lottery this year is 0 percent because I don't play. STILL, the chance of a civil war in Thailand is definitely over 0 percent, because the active conflicts and potential triggers ARE in play.

[bkkjames]

Well the OP hasnt been back and gave no reason for his 'on the brink comment' which leads me to believe his SET shareholdings are down a bit and is in need of conflict to give it a bump?

[thaicbr]

By definition, the chance is greater than zero percentage.

Not true. I'm sure you can think of your own examples to demonstrate this.

Civil war in Thailand in the next 12 months? 0% chance.

I get your point. Chances of me winning the lottery this year is 0 percent because I don't play. STILL, the chance of a civil war in Thailand is definitely over 0 percent, because the active conflicts and potential triggers ARE in play.

Civil war in the TRUE sense. No ( unless you include the southern problem)

Civil unrest. Always possible when you have a nutter with money and other nutters that will do pretty much anything for a bit of said money.

sent from my Wellcom A90+

[Pseudolus]

Civil war? No Chance. The "those that have" and held in awe by the "those that have naught" so in that regard this will never happen. Will there be a coup soon? If it floods again, and Thaksin comes back without doing some stir, then about a month later there will be a coup, elections 6 months later, a democrat win, a riot and some well financed protests, more elections, a coup..... one big circle. I think February / March will be coup time.

[jackr]

Very, very few foreigners are anywhere near qualified to offer informed opinion on the likelihood of civil war in this country.

I dunno, I'd say even the most puerile and ill-informed are just as adept at flipping a coin as those who think they know it all, eh what what!

[Roadman]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

[chiangmaikelly]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

[Roadman]

Would not expect civil war.

I would bet on things turning ugly, and probably worse than 2010, if the current mafia running the country railroad through a constitutional change away from the current status quo where senior judicary appointments are approved by the Monarchy as the people's independant safeguard. If the fugitive convicted criminal in Dubai tries that then the Army will step in. Apart from that the

Army will pretty well stay out of politics even to the extent of the criminals running the country to bankruptcy.

Ya the Army pretty much stays out of things. How many coups in the past few years? 18 I think. That's not very many is it?

So do the percentages on how many years per coup. Then look at how many coups in the last 15 years. One is it? And the reasons why for that one. And then listen to what the current General is saying which is no different to what the previous was saying. Not rocket science at all with a little thought applied.