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What's Up With The Thai Baht?


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I was travelling through the airport at Suvarnabhumi the other day and it was £1 = 45.09 THB, as usual you can get closer to 46.50THB in the city but either way it's expensive living in Thailand these days.

If the THB continues to strengthen then I'd be looking to move elsewhere - the reason "most" people move to Thailand is for the cheap living outlay and thats no longer the case.

As for land prices, it's just comical now, people are asking 50k THB for 1sq wa on the outskirts of Chiang Mai. Besides which we foreigners cant own the land so why should we care ? It's a case of paradise lost

People can ASK whatever price they like. @ 50k THB they're unlikely to find buyers.

Residential and prices, for ~400 sq/m lots within 10km of CM city are ~10k to 25k baht per t/wah. Even at those prices, land is NOT walking out the door.

A magnificent Ping river-front block of land, 500m from HRH property, is available @ ~ 18k THB per T/wah. Size is approx 250 t/wah and adjoins parkland.

If you're going to quote land prices, please back them up up with location and size.

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Over the last year the THB has strengthened about 6% against the Malaysian ringgit, with two-thirds of that gain in the last month. It is now at the stronger end of a + / - 5% band that it has occupied for the last 5 years. If past performance is an indication of the future then one might want to offload Thai Baht. Alternatively, you might want to look at this month's trend, and buy baht. Or play on-line poker. Personally, I think the best thing to do with money is spend it.

SC

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You are probably correct, but there is also the small problem of finding useful work for these people to do.

Bicycle connected to generator connected to grid.

They must cycle 50Km per day to earn their benefits.

Good for them, good for the environment, good for the world.

Wouldn't that be supporting the continuation of benefit culture? Whose money will the government take in order to pay these eco-cyclists ? Shouldn't we be searching for ways of reducing government "take", not finding ingenious ways of perpetuating it

Get rid of a heap of regulators and public servants they cost far more than they recover, and without regulators, there would be more small enterprise, for the poor you pick on, to be employed in
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Concerning the United States... The U.S. Government is buying a significant portion of its own debt in order to issue more money - and has been for quite a while now. This 'monetizing' of the debt is extremely risky business. To my knowledge the United States has never done this before in its history. Countries that have monetized their own debt have crashed quite catastrophically. The only reason it has not crashed so far is the extraordinary nature of the transaction relationships between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve (much is secretive and slight of hand). Sooner or later the House of Cards will fall. In light of this - how the U.S. Dollar keeps its value again any world currency is baffling. It should be 300 Baht to the dollar - on the way to 3000.

Note: Aside from being 16 Trillion is debt... the U.S. Government has over 100 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (mostly off the books - Social Security, Medicade, Medicare, now Obamacare). Yes Folks - OVER 100 TRILLION... Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money...

It's amazing how many kooks there are in the world. These are the kooks that listen to these Internet preachers that make up statistics to fill their soft deluded minds. These same kooks that think the problem is with the crazy people not taking their drugs. The same kooks that themselves should be taking some heavy doses of Prozac.

But frankly I think you are right, the welfare state needs to stop. So all those old people that paid into Social Security should only get the value of what they paid in and what that money earned. Then it should be cold turkey. So I suspect there would be millions upon millions of old white republicans that have been sucking at the teat of Social Security well past the amount they paid in that would be cut off. These are some of the same kooks that are complaining about welfare. Some of the biggest abusers of Social Security welfare, old white people.

As of the end of calendar year 2010, the accumulated surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund stood at just over $2.6 trillion.

Per Wikipedia

By 2033, the fund is expected to be exhausted. Thereafter, payroll taxes are projected to only cover approximately 75% of program obligations.

So who cares if there is a surplus now, there are plenty of Social Security beneficiaries that are collecting past any conceivable annuity they paid in during their working life. And it is these people that complain the loudest about stopping welfare when in fact they are the biggest recipients.

Edited by vijer
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When you go into the conference chamber of the world ( ASEAN) then its big stuff I can tell you, Thailand is top dog with such a strong currency. Everytime the big wigs and so hi's get overseas they can spend like kings, who cares or knows what will happen tomorrow we live for today and today we sure are loaded when we get out of Thailand.

They will care of course when the exports dry up and the tourists find new less expensive place just round the corner or down the road. It amazes me how The government see the first paragraph but not the second but then again maybe I should not be surprised, THailand is reluctant to take on new ideas, unless they thought of it first and that is not going to fill a book is it not even the preface.

One very important other point is that Thailand is the centre of the world ( as they know it ).

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Concerning the United States... The U.S. Government is buying a significant portion of its own debt in order to issue more money - and has been for quite a while now. This 'monetizing' of the debt is extremely risky business. To my knowledge the United States has never done this before in its history. Countries that have monetized their own debt have crashed quite catastrophically. The only reason it has not crashed so far is the extraordinary nature of the transaction relationships between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve (much is secretive and slight of hand). Sooner or later the House of Cards will fall. In light of this - how the U.S. Dollar keeps its value again any world currency is baffling. It should be 300 Baht to the dollar - on the way to 3000.

Note: Aside from being 16 Trillion is debt... the U.S. Government has over 100 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (mostly off the books - Social Security, Medicade, Medicare, now Obamacare). Yes Folks - OVER 100 TRILLION... Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money...

It's amazing how many kooks there are in the world. These are the kooks that listen to these Internet preachers that make up statistics to fill their soft deluded minds. These same kooks that think the problem is with the crazy people not taking their drugs. The same kooks that themselves should be taking some heavy doses of Prozac.

But frankly I think you are right, the welfare state needs to stop. So all those old people that paid into Social Security should only get the value of what they paid in and what that money earned. Then it should be cold turkey. So I suspect there would be millions upon millions of old white republicans that have been sucking at the teat of Social Security well past the amount they paid in that would be cut off. These are some of the same kooks that are complaining about welfare. Some of the biggest abusers of Social Security welfare, old white people.

As of the end of calendar year 2010, the accumulated surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund stood at just over $2.6 trillion.

Per Wikipedia

By 2033, the fund is expected to be exhausted. Thereafter, payroll taxes are projected to only cover approximately 75% of program obligations.

So who cares if there is a surplus now, there are plenty of Social Security beneficiaries that are collecting past any conceivable annuity they paid in during their working life. And it is these people that complain the loudest about stopping welfare when in fact they are the biggest recipients.

Maybe I am missing something. What percent does American Social Security effect the Thai baht?

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When you go into the conference chamber of the world ( ASEAN) then its big stuff I can tell you, Thailand is top dog with such a strong currency. Everytime the big wigs and so hi's get overseas they can spend like kings, who cares or knows what will happen tomorrow we live for today and today we sure are loaded when we get out of Thailand.

They will care of course when the exports dry up and the tourists find new less expensive place just round the corner or down the road. It amazes me how The government see the first paragraph but not the second but then again maybe I should not be surprised, THailand is reluctant to take on new ideas, unless they thought of it first and that is not going to fill a book is it not even the preface.

One very important other point is that Thailand is the centre of the world ( as they know it ).

Does this also hold true for the Japanese Yen?

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When I first came to Thailand 20 years ago the Can $ was worth 20 Baht.

5 years ago it was worth 34.

Now it is worth 30.

Notice any predictable pattern?

No, nor do I.

No one can tell you which way a currency will go against any other currency (except maybe Zimbabwe).

35 years ago gold went to $900 an ounce.

Then it dropped to $200 an ounce.

Today? $1700.

Notice a pattern?

No nor do I.

Is there any point to this post?

Yes - life is unpredictable. Don't expect otherwise.

Easily explainable, USD/THB was pegged at 25 to USD until 1997, after the crash is soared and now it';s getting back to where it should be, a fairly predictable cycle I think, reverting to the norm..

I'm not sure that it is "reverting to the norm"? Pre-1997 the financial requirements for remaining in Thailand based on marriage or retirement were significantly lower (wish I could find the exact numbers -- I've seen them before). Post-crash the financial requirements were upped to the current Marriage 40K/Mo or 400K in bank, Retirement 65K/Mo or 800K in bank. So, if the USD reverts to 25 THB/ USD, or floats even lower, do you think the the financial requirement will "revert to the norm" or go back to what they were pre-1997? Personally I doubt it.

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Concerning the United States... The U.S. Government is buying a significant portion of its own debt in order to issue more money - and has been for quite a while now. This 'monetizing' of the debt is extremely risky business. To my knowledge the United States has never done this before in its history. Countries that have monetized their own debt have crashed quite catastrophically. The only reason it has not crashed so far is the extraordinary nature of the transaction relationships between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve (much is secretive and slight of hand). Sooner or later the House of Cards will fall. In light of this - how the U.S. Dollar keeps its value again any world currency is baffling. It should be 300 Baht to the dollar - on the way to 3000.

Note: Aside from being 16 Trillion is debt... the U.S. Government has over 100 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (mostly off the books - Social Security, Medicade, Medicare, now Obamacare). Yes Folks - OVER 100 TRILLION... Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money...

It's amazing how many kooks there are in the world. These are the kooks that listen to these Internet preachers that make up statistics to fill their soft deluded minds. These same kooks that think the problem is with the crazy people not taking their drugs. The same kooks that themselves should be taking some heavy doses of Prozac.

But frankly I think you are right, the welfare state needs to stop. So all those old people that paid into Social Security should only get the value of what they paid in and what that money earned. Then it should be cold turkey. So I suspect there would be millions upon millions of old white republicans that have been sucking at the teat of Social Security well past the amount they paid in that would be cut off. These are some of the same kooks that are complaining about welfare. Some of the biggest abusers of Social Security welfare, old white people.

I'd be more than happy to take my Social Security (i.e., what I paid into the Social Security system plus accrued interest) in one lump sum. In fact, I'd prefer it.

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Same old rubbish every year.

Last year the UKP reached a low of 46 bht/ukp, all the doomsayers .... blah blah, back up to 50 a bit later.

This year UKP reaches 46 bht/ukp ...... blah blah ....... same old.

Dollar and Euro, same rate as last year, only the UKP suffering really.

Yet the UKP appears a better bet than the USD or the EURO (but what do I know about anything).

Someone jokingly said to me, Thai government sends all their kids to English private schools, so they force the UKP down just before they have to pay their UK school fees each year ...... makes as much sense as any other explanation.

Exchange rates are manipulated for all sorts of reasons, when the big boys take their profits, it all returns to normal. Sad for those living hand to mouth, makes little difference to those with reserves of Baht and whatever.

Edited by TommoPhysicist
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When I first came to Thailand 20 years ago the Can $ was worth 20 Baht.

5 years ago it was worth 34.

Now it is worth 30.

Notice any predictable pattern?

No, nor do I.

No one can tell you which way a currency will go against any other currency (except maybe Zimbabwe).

35 years ago gold went to $900 an ounce.

Then it dropped to $200 an ounce.

Today? $1700.

Notice a pattern?

No nor do I.

Is there any point to this post?

Yes - life is unpredictable. Don't expect otherwise.

Easily explainable, USD/THB was pegged at 25 to USD until 1997, after the crash is soared and now it';s getting back to where it should be, a fairly predictable cycle I think, reverting to the norm..

I'm not sure that it is "reverting to the norm"? Pre-1997 the financial requirements for remaining in Thailand based on marriage or retirement were significantly lower (wish I could find the exact numbers -- I've seen them before). Post-crash the financial requirements were upped to the current Marriage 40K/Mo or 400K in bank, Retirement 65K/Mo or 800K in bank. So, if the USD reverts to 25 THB/ USD, or floats even lower, do you think the the financial requirement will "revert to the norm" or go back to what they were pre-1997? Personally I doubt it.

Exchange rates only, reverting to norm, everything else stays as is.

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I think also Euro and USD are so weak against some Asian's currencies. I follow sometimes Forex market and see % of increasing nowadays € and Baht and are not the same as many other currencies. We can see that when the EUR/USD reached the 1,335 the Baht arrived to 40,5-40,6 (beginning-middle January) and now the EUR/USD is 1,365 and the EUR/THB is 40,7. What is happening? Every 0,01 rising EUR/USD is a 0,3 in a EUR/THB more or less.

The Baht is also strong with other currencies, but I think in some years Thailand will have an economic crisis too much waste of their people for their salary. It's my point of view.

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I bought my house here in KK just over 5 years ago at a Sterling exchange rate of 70.05, yesterday I got 47.12, that is a 33% drop in just five years. That's the way it goes, but when the Thai economy drops which it will, either when big-time corruption kicks in, or when jobs emigrate to Myanmar, or Cambodia, or Vietnam, or Indonesia, or Bangladesh, or China, or the Philippines. Or even when jobs go back to their homes, in the US or Europe, things will change here.

Khon Kaen is supposed to be the future big boon town, the new big trade hub, but with land prices rocketing and cheaper places over the border a few km away, it is doubtful whether this will happen.

Low level corruption is a way of life here too and no country does well in those circumstances.

So for all these reasons I won't be bringing an money out here, just bide my time and wait for things to complete their cycle.

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It's amazing how many kooks there are in the world. These are the kooks that listen to these Internet preachers that make up statistics to fill their soft deluded minds. These same kooks that think the problem is with the crazy people not taking their drugs. The same kooks that themselves should be taking some heavy doses of Prozac.

But frankly I think you are right, the welfare state needs to stop. So all those old people that paid into Social Security should only get the value of what they paid in and what that money earned. Then it should be cold turkey. So I suspect there would be millions upon millions of old white republicans that have been sucking at the teat of Social Security well past the amount they paid in that would be cut off. These are some of the same kooks that are complaining about welfare. Some of the biggest abusers of Social Security welfare, old white people.

As of the end of calendar year 2010, the accumulated surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund stood at just over $2.6 trillion.

Per Wikipedia

By 2033, the fund is expected to be exhausted. Thereafter, payroll taxes are projected to only cover approximately 75% of program obligations.

So who cares if there is a surplus now, there are plenty of Social Security beneficiaries that are collecting past any conceivable annuity they paid in during their working life. And it is these people that complain the loudest about stopping welfare when in fact they are the biggest recipients.

Maybe I am missing something. What percent does American Social Security effect the Thai baht?

None at all, but you have some TV members who by some twisted logic are blaming Obama for the devaluation of the US dollar and thereby increasing the value of the Baht. Apparently, many who used to hold dollars are not doing so anymore because the US is printing money and all of these people and countries are now startng to hold baht instead. cheesy.gif To see this you have to read through more of the comments on the OP.

They have some misguided notion that the Obama administration is furiously printing money to pay the debt. Somehow the US government is making billion dollar payments on trillions of debt with sack full's of cash. I guess Hillary is covertly flying around the world with duffle bags of $100 bills to make the payments.

So if the Obama administration prints more money they can pay the debt without ever increasing inflows. Sure if you're in a feudal economy. And that same twisted logic led to some silly comment how welfare is killing the US. None of which is factual, but these kooks get their information from A-holes like rush and these other right wing whack jobs.

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Concerning the United States... The U.S. Government is buying a significant portion of its own debt in order to issue more money - and has been for quite a while now. This 'monetizing' of the debt is extremely risky business. To my knowledge the United States has never done this before in its history. Countries that have monetized their own debt have crashed quite catastrophically. The only reason it has not crashed so far is the extraordinary nature of the transaction relationships between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve (much is secretive and slight of hand). Sooner or later the House of Cards will fall. In light of this - how the U.S. Dollar keeps its value again any world currency is baffling. It should be 300 Baht to the dollar - on the way to 3000.

Note: Aside from being 16 Trillion is debt... the U.S. Government has over 100 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities (mostly off the books - Social Security, Medicade, Medicare, now Obamacare). Yes Folks - OVER 100 TRILLION... Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money...

It's amazing how many kooks there are in the world. These are the kooks that listen to these Internet preachers that make up statistics to fill their soft deluded minds. These same kooks that think the problem is with the crazy people not taking their drugs. The same kooks that themselves should be taking some heavy doses of Prozac.

But frankly I think you are right, the welfare state needs to stop. So all those old people that paid into Social Security should only get the value of what they paid in and what that money earned. Then it should be cold turkey. So I suspect there would be millions upon millions of old white republicans that have been sucking at the teat of Social Security well past the amount they paid in that would be cut off. These are some of the same kooks that are complaining about welfare. Some of the biggest abusers of Social Security welfare, old white people.

I'd be more than happy to take my Social Security (i.e., what I paid into the Social Security system plus accrued interest) in one lump sum. In fact, I'd prefer it.

I would be happy to get it either way, but, by the time I am at the ever increasing retirement age, there won't be any money left to pay me with. And it isn't because the government spent it on what we normally refer to as welfare, it's because people are living longer and are continuing to be paid Social Security way past the amount they paid in plus accrued interest.

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Dollar £ euro yen all going down due to printing. At some point the Bht maybe be pursposely devalued to keep some parity. So physical gold & silver is the currency I choose as reserve since its the only one not capable of being printed.

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Dollar £ euro yen all going down due to printing. At some point the Bht maybe be pursposely devalued to keep some parity. So physical gold & silver is the currency I choose as reserve since its the only one not capable of being printed.

Not sure that I agree with that. I checked the recent exchange rate versus pound this evening, and like the exchange rate versus the Malaysian ringgit, had fluctuated within a +/- 5% roughly band for the last year and a half or so, and in the last month, had swung to the stronger end of that band for both currencies

SC

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Dollar £ euro yen all going down due to printing. At some point the Bht maybe be pursposely devalued to keep some parity. So physical gold & silver is the currency I choose as reserve since its the only one not capable of being printed.

Not sure that I agree with that. I checked the recent exchange rate versus pound this evening, and like the exchange rate versus the Malaysian ringgit, had fluctuated within a +/- 5% roughly band for the last year and a half or so, and in the last month, had swung to the stronger end of that band for both currencies

SC

Small fluctuations are natural of course due to market sentiment etc, but looking at the fundamentals, ie of over indebted west printing money to give to bank or themselves as the solution, you can see the trend from the start of the policy to present day = roughly 30% downwards tradjectory. Sure we are at the bottom of a flat line range since some months as breath held for next wave of turmoil. I recognise there is so much money sloshing around that moves can go either way with in quite a wide range; But the fundamentals behind the total 30% drop and over all tradjectory remain the same I think. The bht certainly isn't going back up to 70 with out some major printing of its own. I'm surprised the Shinewatras haven't fired up the presses to sick half in family pocket and throw the other half to the reds; probably saving that trick for the next ellection;)

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Here's my thoughts from just over 5 years ago. don't see anything to change that view, and the trend of weakening western currencies

http://www.thaivisa....es-financially/

Posted 2008-01-31 18:46:15

Yes I think expats will be hit by currency movements if they are from Europe, UK and US, and that is where their main wealth/currency is. The future trend for me is for all these currencies to weaken vs THB. Effectively they've had 10 years or so of cheap money. Prior to the Asian crises are levels they will go back to.

Yes Thailand's economy will continue to grow and develop. That will push prices up. As Thai's become wealthier and trend towards 2nd and 1st world status, prices will follow.

The timeframe for both happening is debateable, but my view is they are realities. It will get more expensive here in THB terms, and THB will become more expensive (stronger) vs other currencies.

There are some positives though:

- the Thai government and Bank of Thailand learnt a lot from '97, and are now better placed in its policies to manage inflation, as well as currencies

- The stockmarket, investment infrastructure and economy is generally widening, which will mean it will become easier and safer to invest in financial products here in the same way you do back home.

eg there are now Thai funds to invest in overseas/world stockmarkets, derivative markets to hedge risk, commodity funds. Foreign currency deposits will become more available here. All are good news.

eg for our daughter and my Thai wife, I am now able to take out investment and savings products similar to back in the west, but from here. This not only offers wider choice here, but can help mitigate exchange risks.

As with all changes though, they won't affect everyone equally, and unfortunately some will be hit more than others

Edited by fletchsmile, 2008-01-31 18:48:32.

Edited by fletchsmile
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I bought my house here in KK just over 5 years ago at a Sterling exchange rate of 70.05, yesterday I got 47.12, that is a 33% drop in just five years. That's the way it goes, but when the Thai economy drops which it will, either when big-time corruption kicks in, or when jobs emigrate to Myanmar, or Cambodia, or Vietnam, or Indonesia, or Bangladesh, or China, or the Philippines. Or even when jobs go back to their homes, in the US or Europe, things will change here.

......

So for all these reasons I won't be bringing an money out here, just bide my time and wait for things to complete their cycle.

I'm puzzled by your post. Buying a house has actually proved a good move for you.

Say you paid THB 10mio 5 years ago @ a rate of 70-ish, that's GBP 143k ball park

If today it's still worth THB 10mio @ a rate of 47-ish that's GBP 213 k.

= worth GBP 70k more. (Assuming no capital gain on your house)

Meantime you've also fixed some of your THB outgoings - your cost was fixed at getting THB 70 to the pound compared to someone paying THB rent based on UK income, or someone looking to buy 5 years later. They've seen the rate fall to 47 and costing them more.

Put another way, it would cost you around 50% more today than it did 5 years ago in GBP terms to buy the same house, as the replacement cost has gone up due to the FX rate.

Well done

Fletch

:)

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Correct me if I am wrong but the economic situation was far worse in Western countries five years ago than today. Dow at an all time high now and so on but five years ago the baht was not as strong as today. This would lead me to believe that the value of the baht has something to do with the economy of Thailand. Perhaps even more so than Western economies. I mean if you look at the SET as a measure of the Thai economy and the DOW as a measure of the US economy you would conclude that the SET has quite a lot to do with the Thai Value of currency and US economy has nothing to do with the Thai baht.

Indeed the value of the baht does have something to do with the Thai economy :)

Thailand doesn't operate in a vacuum though, and the stronger influences at the moment are coming from global and macro factors rather than internal Thailand factors. Not to say that the Thailand internal factors aren't there, just that in this period of time external factors are more in play.

In terms of the SET you mention, that in turn is also influenced by US factors as well as Thai factors, so to say the US economy has nothing to do with the Thai baht doesn't make sense. Example, Phillips Thailand, their brokers note this morning lists the following factors as affecting the (Thai stock) market (there will be more of course and these are some)

+ The DJIA ....after jobs and manufacturing data showed the US economy’s recovery remains on track.

+ NYMEX Mar crude oil futures settled 28 cents higher at ... US$97.77/barrel on Mon on the back of a rally in US equities to a five-year high.

+ Foreign investors remained net buyers of Thai shares worth Bt967.77mn last Fri.

+ Thailand’s inflation in Jan 2013 rose 3.36% m-m and 3.9% y-y, ...forecasts a full-year inflation of between 2.8%-3.4%.

- Credit Bureau said 16mn loan accounts in the Thai banking system were classified as non-performing and 1.1mn accounts out of the total 44mn accounts were in legal proceedings, adding that more loans are turning sour

https://datacenter.poems.in.th/pdf/come.pdf

There are many factors at play, and often interlinked, directly and indirectly. The problem most people on the thread have is understanding how they fit together :)

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you are forgetting one key word in the management of the worlds economies at the moment , in fact since 2008 ...... nothing is, as it seems because of

MANIPULATION .............. forget all the basis for arguing why this , why that ....its very similar to the behavior of a large bankrupt company just before it folds , all the execs are lining their pockets as they head to the door , making up numbers , filing dummie reports ....meanwhile the shareholders ( taxpayers in this instance) are left with the remains , which is usually nothing .....

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But as the OP pointed out, the THB over the last month or so has rocketed against various currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit (and anyone with an interest in this can comment on other Asian currencies), and I doubt that change has much to do with the deliberate devaluation of Western currencies.

The Euro, I believe, is prevented from devaluing for political expediency, so the Europeans will have to put up with deflation instead - a much more bitter pill than devaluation.

SC

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