The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[swissie]

Theoretically this would belong in the "Economy" sub-forum. But since so many Farangs will be affected by this, it belongs into the "General-Forum".

As european economies and the big economic locomotive (USA), are struggling to maintain their status, asian economies are on a growth modus that seems to be unstoppable. With the result ,that their currencies will strenghten against non-asian currencies as a matter of fact.

Estimates range from 30 to 50 % increases against non-asian currencies within the next 10 years.

So therefore, as a farang, living here on a fixed pension from overseas, how would you cope with a pay-cut of 30 to 50% ?

Realising, that it is not customary to think a great deal about the future (especially not, if you happen to be married to a Thai-National), if may be worth a moment of contemplation as far as affected farangs are concerned.

Alternatives (counter measures) to an ever strenghtening Baht?

- Occasional Bank-Robberies to compensate? I would not recommend.

- Currency Futures (to hedge) is possible by way of www.oanda.com. Unfortunately only US-Dollar agaist THB.

Much gloom and doom ahead for a large number of farangs here.

Cheers.

[MJCM]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

[farang000999]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

the Thais can be tourists in their own hotels.

[Scottythai]

I think it would be hard to gauge but a very interesting topic. I would think then the wages of the average factory worker will have to be raised with it as with e stronger market there is always a start for a middle class rising

[MJCM]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

the Thais can be tourists in their own hotels.

They are already, but the majority of guests in most (Tourist) oriented areas (biggest earners) are still Foreigners.

[Beetlejuice]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

Edited February 21, 2013 by Beetlejuice

[farang000999]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

the Thais can be tourists in their own hotels.

They are already, but the majority of guests in most (Tourist) oriented areas (biggest earners) are still Foreigners.

which can change.

[MJCM]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle.

You are right, but aren't they (BOT) just starting implementing measures to Tackle the strong Baht ??

[MJCM]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

the Thais can be tourists in their own hotels.

They are already, but the majority of guests in most (Tourist) oriented areas (biggest earners) are still Foreigners.

which can change.

Thais only, I doubt it, but instead of Westerners the Koreans , Russians & Chinese etc then yes.

[Upnotover]

My local costs have increased 45% or so since i moved here in 2006. Looks like that trend will continue. Someone once told me, having been here a lot longer than me, that anything over 38 to the GBP was a bonus, that was how he budgeted and for some years he had a good time. Not so much any more.

[Berkshire]

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

This would seem to make sense, that the strengthening baht would spell doom for western tourism. Yet, as you say, even though most western currencies have lost substantial value (the dollar alone has dropped over 25% within the last 6 to 7 years), tourism continues to churn along at a good clip. This boggles my mind as we know the western economies are largely in the toilet. Australia is doing well, but they only account for a small number of total western tourism. So what's going on? I would guess many westerners still believe Thai tourism to be a good value. I'd imagine the trend will continue.

But I do agree that long term expats on a fixed budget will be hit hard. So what's the future for that market? Mass exodus to Cambodia or perhaps Myanmar? I don't think the Thai government will be overly concerned about that demographic, especially since more well-heeled westerners will probably come in to replace them. Certainly a topic worth speculating about, but no definitive answers for sure.

[tartempion]

>Much gloom and doom ahead for a large number of farangs here.

Simple answer:

If the Euro goes South (beyond 30THB) I will go West.

I still have a safe house there, question of not burning my bridges, no need to attend university to be that smart.

Bye bye Thailand (had excellent 11 years so far, but still bye bye )

[captron]

Yes, same for me. 11 yrs have been great but it's over. Not even 30 baht /USD. Really sucks! More than a $ for a cheap beer at the 7 and its only 10oz? Hell, can get 12 oz beer for 50 cents in the STATES. No bargains here anymore.

[MJCM]

>Much gloom and doom ahead for a large number of farangs here.

Simple answer:

If the Euro goes South (beyond 30THB) I will go West.

I still have a safe house there, question of not burning my bridges, no need to attend university to be that smart.

Bye bye Thailand (had excellent 11 years so far, but still bye bye )

Just keep thinking positive: And think about how much money you are now saving on heating while you stay in Thailand.

[Beetlejuice]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle.

You are right, but aren't they (BOT) just starting implementing measures to Tackle the strong Baht ??

http://www.thaivisa....le-strong-baht/

These measures won’t help the average ex-pat living in Thailand on fixed foreign incomes. Mostly geared for big business and foreign investors that are out of our league.

I don`t give a rat’s behind about how much value in bahts I can take out of Thailand, but rather how much value I can obtain for my Western incomes coming into Thailand. Also considering that if the £, $ and Euro weakens even more, than this will have a balancing affect, meaning still receiving <deleted> exchange rates in Thailand.

I have also read many conflicting reports regarding the Thai Governments measures to stabilise the baht, but I’m sure none of these, if or when ever implemented, will be of any use to us, meaning the majority of average on a budget Thai visa members.

[Berkshire]

The Thai central bank ought to just start printing money to pay off the national debt, as well as pay for other worthy projects such as infrastructure and education. That should kill the baht.

[lemoncake]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand’s Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

You have not heard that this year was a record year for tourist numbers?

[Sandman77]

One the other hands the export industries in Europe see big chance in ASEAN!

Most of pensions in my homecountry go up nearly 3 procent every year !

Everything holds in balance I need 30 procent more money because the value is lower but my pension goes up around same! Within last 8 years!

Who is the winner of a low exchange rate I don't know!?

[kennedy]

I see the gloom and doom brigade is out in full force today.

[MJCM]

One the other hands the export industries in Europe see big chance in ASEAN!

Most of pensions in my homecountry go up nearly 3 procent every year !

Everything holds in balance I need 30 procent more money because the value is lower but my pension goes up around same! Within last 8 years!

Who is the winner of a low exchange rate I don't know!?

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[theblether]

Naturally with the forum being populated mainly by Westerners, there is a Western bias as to the tourist industry. The reality is that the newly wealthy Chinese among others will more than make up for any shortfall in Western tourism.

The time of Western hegemony is over.

[David48]

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

[cooked]

At the moment (hoping for an increase of income soon) if the Thai Baht augments in value by another 12% against my currency I will no longer have the income required for my visa extensions. I guess many people are in the same situation, wondering about options. I may decide to be dishonest.

[Beetlejuice]

One the other hands the export industries in Europe see big chance in ASEAN!

Most of pensions in my homecountry go up nearly 3 procent every year !

Everything holds in balance I need 30 procent more money because the value is lower but my pension goes up around same! Within last 8 years!

Who is the winner of a low exchange rate I don't know!?

It`s called index linking with inflation from whatever country your pension comes from. Mostly applies to some company or private pension schemes, not State pensions for those living abroad.

The equalising between, index linked pensions and inflation, bank exchange and interest rates depends on how much pension a pensioner receives each month or annually. It`s simple mathematics.

Some won’t be affected, others will be winners and others will be losers in the cat and mouse game of trying to manipulate our funds in order to maintain a certain standard of living in Thailand. Everyone’s situation is different.

The only real winners I see, are the South East Asian tourists who decide to holiday in the Western countries, the foreigners here that own businesses or work in Thailand who regularly send bahts to their bank accounts abroad and the importers of goods from abroad. In theory imported goods from Europe and America should be much cheaper to buy here in Thailand for the present, but of course none of the benefits received by the Importers will be passed on to us, the consumers. We are always on the losing end of the deal.

Edited February 21, 2013 by Beetlejuice

[impulse]

Thai tourism will thrive as long as sex is cheap and available. Period.

Will it be the tourists they want? Nope.

Sad to be that way, but I don't think the baht at 20 would change that.

[chiangmaikelly]

The Thai central bank ought to just start printing money to pay off the national debt, as well as pay for other worthy projects such as infrastructure and education. That should kill the baht.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

USA $52,000.00 per person

Netherlands $226,000.00 per person

UK $156,126.00 per person

Thailand $1,292.00 per person

[chiangmaikelly]

Thai tourism will thrive as long as sex is cheap and available. Period.

Will it be the tourists they want? Nope.

Sad to be that way, but I don't think the baht at 20 would change that.

What percent of the total tourism is sex tourism? Should be easy to figure as most sex tourism is single males and I believe Thailand tracks that. My guess would be sex tourism is about 10% of total tourism.

[chiangmaikelly]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

That`s wishful thinking.

Considering that today the £ is down to 45 baht and the Euro down to 39 baht, it appears that Thailand has already let this happen.

This must be having a devastating affect on Thailand's Western tourist industry, which will also have knock on effects to those businesses that are Western tourist orientated, plus if this trend of the ever decreasing bahts for Western currencies continues and I cannot see any improvements in the foreseeable future, than many ex-pats living here who obtain their incomes from abroad, will not be able to hack it in Thailand much longer.

We the ex-pats are really up against it. High inflation in Thailand, especially since the increasing of the minimum Thai wage, ever dwindling bahts for Western currencies and low to mediocre bank interest rates. It appears the squeeze is on and the situation is going to get tighter

The outlook is grim and be prepared to tighten up your belts up to the very last buckle, it`s going to be a rough ride.

You have not heard that this year was a record year for tourist numbers?

According to everyone outside of Thai Visa.

[MJCM]

The Thai central bank ought to just start printing money to pay off the national debt, as well as pay for other worthy projects such as infrastructure and education. That should kill the baht.

http://en.wikipedia....y_external_debt

USA $52,000.00 per person

Netherlands $226,000.00 per person

UK $156,126.00 per person

Thailand $1,292.00 per person

They must be joking

Aren't most of the cars here bought on Finance ???

I think $ 1292 will only get you this

[weegee]

MJCM....please change your Avartar...I was reading these posts and trying to remove the insect on the screen for at least 2 mins, before i realised