The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[MJCM]

MJCM....please change your Avartar...I was reading these posts and trying to remove the insect on the screen for at least 2 mins, before i realised

555555555555555

That was the first thing I did when I saw it and I thought was very appropriate for TV and being in a Hot Climate like Thailand, but at least that part of your screen is now clean

Edited February 21, 2013 by MJCM

[weegee]

MJCM....please change your Avartar...I was reading these posts and trying to remove the insect on the screen for at least 2 mins, before i realised

555555555555555

That was the first thing I did when I saw it and I thought was very appropriate for TV and being in a Hot Climate like Thailand, but at least that part of your screen is now clean

you certainly caught me on that one.....

[swissie]

As the OP, I want to direct the discusson to alternatives (as far as geografics is concerned.) = If exchange-rates go the way as expected and If Thailand get's too expensive, where to go?

Myanmar/Burma? I believe, It's already done. Living in Myanmar is not cheaper than in Thailand but with a lot less infrastructure and comforts than anywhere in Thailand. The many sandy-beaches have already been contracted to future Chinese-Travel-Contractors to build Hotels and Resorts. "The furure is in place and sold already".

Cambodia? Still open! Can get a "Business-Visa" (Valid 1 year) and this is also a work-permit. (A Farang can sell his home-made Hamburgers on a street corner, if he decides to do so).

Will come to an end soon, Cambobia currently makes efforts to "adjust" it's immigration laws to neighboring countries.

Other than that that, the liberal immigration laws that are still in effect in Cambodia and are in favour of a farang, will never convince a Thai-Lady to settle in Cambodia with her Farang, even if she speaks the Khmer-Language. (In border-Regions they are all BI-Lingual).

The reasons are two-fold: After a major investement failure by a farang in Thailand , there are few possibilties to recover any assets in favour of the Farang. Not so in Cambodia. Some elements of the french-law are still in effect. ( (If somebody pays for something, it's his, period!) For Americans: Cambodia was once a french coloniy.

Thai's have a hard time with this kind of reasoning.

But the ultimate reason for a Thai to not ever considering living in Cambodia is the fact that Thais view themselfes far supirior to any Khmers, even if Grandfather and Grandmother is Khmer.

Cheers.

[MrWorldwide]

Interesting that no-one seems to be asking what the impact of a 30-50% 'revaluation' of the baht would do to Thailand's manufacturing sector, or the huge 'health tourism' industry. Ask any Australian exporter what the impact of a dramatically stronger currency is on earnings. I'd start with BHP-Billiton.

This is one of the reasons China has resisted pressure to revalue the Yuan.

[chiangmaikelly]

The Thai central bank ought to just start printing money to pay off the national debt, as well as pay for other worthy projects such as infrastructure and education. That should kill the baht.

http://en.wikipedia....y_external_debt

USA $52,000.00 per person

Netherlands $226,000.00 per person

UK $156,126.00 per person

Thailand $1,292.00 per person

They must be joking

Aren't most of the cars here bought on Finance ???

I think $ 1292 will only get you this

External debt per person.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

Switzerland external debt $154.063.00 per person.

Hong Kong $105,420.00 per person.

Australia $52,596.00 per person

Thailand $1,292.00

[MrWorldwide]

My only alternatives are Cambodia and Myanmar ? Sweet Jesus ....

I think the 'alternatives to Thailand' thing is pretty well covered in the Southeast Asia Forum.

[whiteman]

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

[impulse]

What percent of the total tourism is sex tourism? Should be easy to figure as most sex tourism is single males and I believe Thailand tracks that. My guess would be sex tourism is about 10% of total tourism.

Yup, and they say only 10% of the tourists in Las Vegas are there to gamble. But take away the gambling and the rest of it becomes meaningless.

Feeding the vices has always been recession proof. Up economy, down economy, booze, gambling and sex will always draw people in and get them to reach into their back pockets.

For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers.

That, and what shenanigans the world's financial wizzes are pulling today with our money that will bankrupt many companies and require tax funded bailouts of others. It doesn't matter how strong or weak the baht is. If your investment portfolio and value of your rental properties back home shrink by 50%; you're still going to hurt.

And as to external debt, I'd rather be making $100K and owe $100K than make $5K and owe $2K. At $100K, I have discretionary income to pay down my debts. At $5K, I'm lucky to have enough to eat, much less put any aside to pay down debt. And external debt doesn't figure in all the nice folks who have car payments they can't afford because the gov'ment gave them a tax rebate.

Edited February 21, 2013 by impulse

[eeeya]

Guess everyone should have bought a house or condo in thailand years ago

[whiteman]

Guess everyone should have bought a house or condo in thailand years ago

Not really I rent by the sea for 12000 bhat amonth 3 bedroom single level big garden sea view could never live like this overseas for this money so why buy???

[apetley]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

the Thais can be tourists in their own hotels.

Yeah one each:-)

[HardenedSoul]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

It's already happened and Thailand still has tourists.

There's a noticeable increase in tourism from non-Western countries. Loads of Indians, Chinese, Russians rockin' up at Swampy.

I guess the days when Westerners could regard Thailand as their own private Disneyland are coming to an abrupt and ignominious end with Tom, Dick and Harry's barstools being taken over by Raj, Xeng and Dmitri.

[eeeya]

Guess everyone should have bought a house or condo in thailand years ago

Not really I rent by the sea for 12000 bhat amonth 3 bedroom single level big garden sea view could never live like this overseas for this money so why buy???

You missed my point. The thread is about falling currency in western countries.

Wouldn't a property purchased many years ago alleviate this situation and allow those currently on the skin of their ass to have a bit more security?

[chiangmaikelly]

 

Guess everyone should have bought a house or condo in thailand years ago

 

Opening a bank account would have been sufficient.

[pattayadingo]

 

>Much gloom and doom ahead for a large number of farangs here.

Simple answer:

If the Euro goes South (beyond 30THB) I will go West.

I still have a safe house there, question of not burning my bridges, no need to attend university to be that smart.

Bye bye Thailand (had excellent 11 years so far, but still bye bye )

 

Same for me regards the £.

I have my house in the U.K. and I'd have no problems moving back there.

I'd be sad to leave Thailand but nothing is forever.

[chiangmaikelly]

 

What percent of the total tourism is sex tourism? Should be easy to figure as most sex tourism is single males and I believe Thailand tracks that. My guess would be sex tourism is about 10% of total tourism.

Yup, and they say only 10% of the tourists in Las Vegas are there to gamble. But take away the gambling and the rest of it becomes meaningless.

Feeding the vices has always been recession proof. Up economy, down economy, booze, gambling and sex will always draw people in and get them to reach into their back pockets.

For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers.

That, and what shenanigans the world's financial wizzes are pulling today with our money that will bankrupt many companies and require tax funded bailouts of others. It doesn't matter how strong or weak the baht is. If your investment portfolio and value of your rental properties back home shrink by 50%; you're still going to hurt.

And as to external debt, I'd rather be making $100K and owe $100K than make $5K and owe $2K. At $100K, I have discretionary income to pay down my debts. At $5K, I'm lucky to have enough to eat, much less put any aside to pay down debt. And external debt doesn't figure in all the nice folks who have car payments they can't afford because the gov'ment gave them a tax rebate.

 

Frankly there are more people visiting temples than short time bars. 90% of the tourists are in Thailand to tour. Since the recent influx of tourists are from Asia and Asia is doing well tourism is doing well unless you are catering to the sex pat market which is down.

You have no information about long stay immigration policy and it is a disservice to start rumors like you are trying to do by writing, "For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers."

[fletchsmile]

1) Pay yourself first.

2) Invest regularly in THB assets with the money from 1)

3) Continue (or for some people start) spending less money than you have coming in, each and every year.

Edited February 21, 2013 by fletchsmile

[Bandersnatch]

Guess everyone should have bought a house or condo in thailand years ago

I know there is a lot of negativity about buying property on this forum, but having bought I don't have to worry about bringing in money to pay for rent. I even bought a second property to rent out, which gives me more Thai Baht. In retirement you want to minimise your exposure to risk and currency fluctuation is potentially a big risk. Before anyone points out the risk of not being able to rent out my second condo - that is a possibility, but it has not been a problem for the last four years.

[LawrenceChee]

The reality of the tourism face has already quietly changed.

Westerners have had a great run in Thailand and the SEA and while people may not want to whisper the truth, those with a great sense of reality have already adjusted their belts, invested wisely and kept their expenditures to a realistic level

Most involved in the tourism business ( govt bodies, big trade groups and operators) have already starting planning for the next 10-15 years and from those plans I have seen Asian clients are the main focus and will not change. The reality of having 2.3 billion upcoming middle class traveling is a huge market to tap and even if one country gets 10% of that market it's a huge investment

There will still be great niches for the westerner guests to have their fun but the party is almost over.

The westerners who have saved well in their earlier years will have no difficulty adjusting ...those who have not planned well ...you will struggle whether here in Thailand or at home

[Odysseus221]

Personally I have invested in mutual funds based in bhat, as I intend to stay here in my old age. I agree with the man who wrote the question, this is a huge challenge. For those not intending to invest here in mutual funds--and that might be crazy if you want to stay--then I would consider FX trade long term; anotherwords, usd/bhat short position for the amount you wish to cover could equalize long term downtrend. At this point it is quesitonable whether there would be appreciation from the long side, but it is possible, I would plan this VERY VERY CAREFULLY WITH BANKERS AND THEN INVESTMENT COUNSELERS so you know what you are getting into.

[ghworker2010]

The aussies are laughing as the currency is on a 10 yr high and we earn 4.90% on online savings accounts. -- living off that over here makes life very cheap indeed.

OP does not have a crystal ball and probably knows very little about currency futures or IRD's (interest rate derivatives). Currencies fluctuate and are extremely volatile.

If OP is correct then move to Equador as its very cheap to live on under usd1000 per month. Currently can earn 7% on your money in citibank

[eeeya]

The aussies are laughing as the currency is on a 10 yr high and we earn 4.90% on online savings accounts. -- living off that over here makes life very cheap indeed.

OP does not have a crystal ball and probably knows very little about currency futures or IRD's (interest rate derivatives). Currencies fluctuate and are extremely volatile.

If OP is correct then move to Equador as its very cheap to live on under usd1000 per month. Currently can earn 7% on your money in citibank

Where can I get 7%????

No ones giving that these days.. taking maybe... but giving.. no way

Edited February 21, 2013 by eeeya

[rgs2001uk]

 

 

What percent of the total tourism is sex tourism? Should be easy to figure as most sex tourism is single males and I believe Thailand tracks that. My guess would be sex tourism is about 10% of total tourism.

Yup, and they say only 10% of the tourists in Las Vegas are there to gamble. But take away the gambling and the rest of it becomes meaningless.

Feeding the vices has always been recession proof. Up economy, down economy, booze, gambling and sex will always draw people in and get them to reach into their back pockets.

For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers.

That, and what shenanigans the world's financial wizzes are pulling today with our money that will bankrupt many companies and require tax funded bailouts of others. It doesn't matter how strong or weak the baht is. If your investment portfolio and value of your rental properties back home shrink by 50%; you're still going to hurt.

And as to external debt, I'd rather be making $100K and owe $100K than make $5K and owe $2K. At $100K, I have discretionary income to pay down my debts. At $5K, I'm lucky to have enough to eat, much less put any aside to pay down debt. And external debt doesn't figure in all the nice folks who have car payments they can't afford because the gov'ment gave them a tax rebate.

 

Frankly there are more people visiting temples than short time bars. 90% of the tourists are in Thailand to tour. Since the recent influx of tourists are from Asia and Asia is doing well tourism is doing well unless you are catering to the sex pat market which is down.

You have no information about long stay immigration policy and it is a disservice to start rumors like you are trying to do by writing, "For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers."

 

"For long staying expats, I'd worry more about changes in immigration policy than a stronger baht. Not that I think it will happen, but long stays could become virtually impossible with the snap of the wrong fingers."

Immigration policy may or may not change, for those planning on long term stay I would be more worried about what my gov't is doing in the way of QE.

If you dont meet the yearly visa requirements, its simple, hasta la vista baby.

[theblether]

The reality is that currency fluctuations will always have the ability to undo any financial planning. There's no point complaining about it, it's not exactly a state secret.

This has always been the fundamental problem of budgeting based upon a foreign based income. The simple answer for some Thai expats may be to encourage their families to earn more within Thailand.

Or maybe that answer is too simple.

.

Edited February 21, 2013 by theblether

[Sandman77]

What european country's freeze the pension? And what country not do?

One time I read that freeze a pension is against the right of free travel law that every individual has!

The Myanmar currency go up last year because country open!

We forget Venezuela loose last week 23 procent value against us dollar!

But plz not only talk about value in Asia I think the food price in eu is in 10 year double from now one liter fuel 4 to 5 euro!

My opinion when thai bath win 50 prozent, and prices go up double in Europe it will hold in balance!

No matter where we live !

Some expat from Germany told me years ago , that he chancel his home adress , and still got his pension work for state police before!

With the nice side effect that he don't pay any cent tax in his homecountry during the 5 year stay in Thailand!

But like someone told hear ever situation not same!

[marstons]

77% of Thai GDP is reliant on exports, 6% on tourism, just cannot see them letting it happen, Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties. The locals will have bigger problems than us farangs. Moving away from LOS would not worry me to much, always plenty of warm spots in Europe along with free health care. But the 77% should be a worry as a lot of that goes to western countries.

Thailand is no longer the paradise it was. Sooner or later the poo is going to hit the fan either way.

[chiangmaikelly]

 

77% of Thai GDP is reliant on exports, 6% on tourism, just cannot see them letting it happen, Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties. The locals will have bigger problems than us farangs. Moving away from LOS would not worry me to much, always plenty of warm spots in Europe along with free health care. But the 77% should be a worry as a lot of that goes to western countries.Thailand is no longer the paradise it was. Sooner or later the poo is going to hit the fan either way.

 

How can you lie like that? 11 countries in South East Asia. 3 have a higher GDP per person. Gee man, how can you say, "Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties." Thailand is in South East ASIA. It has one of the highest GDP's per capita in South East Asia.

Edited February 21, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[marstons]

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

[marstons]

 

 

77% of Thai GDP is reliant on exports, 6% on tourism, just cannot see them letting it happen, Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties. The locals will have bigger problems than us farangs. Moving away from LOS would not worry me to much, always plenty of warm spots in Europe along with free health care. But the 77% should be a worry as a lot of that goes to western countries.Thailand is no longer the paradise it was. Sooner or later the poo is going to hit the fan either way.

 

How can you lie like that? 11 countries in South East Asia. 3 have a higher GDP per person. Gee man, how can you say, "Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties." Thailand is in South East ASIA. It has one of the highest GDP's per capita in South East Asia.

 

care to remove the lie statement,

"Thailand is the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia. However, its per capita GDP in 2011 remains very low at USD5,394[21] slightly lower than China's per capita GDP in 2011"

Edited February 21, 2013 by marstons

[arlissmichaels]

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555