The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[chiangmaikelly]

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

Please present some information to suggest that any of the negative things that fill your imagination, fantasy world will come true. The three credit rating agencies think Thailand is doing well and has a stable low unemployment future. I think they know a bit more than you. Why would you pull this kind of nonsense out of the hat. The UK is in a triple dip recession and about to have it's credit rating lowered by the same agencies that are saying nothing but good things about Thailand. You are way off base. If not present some information that supports your wild unreal ideas.

[chiangmaikelly]

 

 

 

77% of Thai GDP is reliant on exports, 6% on tourism, just cannot see them letting it happen, Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties. The locals will have bigger problems than us farangs. Moving away from LOS would not worry me to much, always plenty of warm spots in Europe along with free health care. But the 77% should be a worry as a lot of that goes to western countries.Thailand is no longer the paradise it was. Sooner or later the poo is going to hit the fan either way.

 

How can you lie like that? 11 countries in South East Asia. 3 have a higher GDP per person. Gee man, how can you say, "Thailand still has one of the lowest GDP per capita than most other Asian counties." Thailand is in South East ASIA. It has one of the highest GDP's per capita in South East Asia.

 

care to remove the lie statement,

"Thailand is the second largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia. However, its per capita GDP in 2011 remains very low at USD5,394[21] slightly lower than China's per capita GDP in 2011"

 

There are 11 countries in South East Asia and Thailand has a higher GDP per capita than all but 3. That means that Thailand has one of the highest GDP's in South East Asia. Apples to Apples please. Thailand is doing very well in South East Asia.

[lemoncake]

 

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

Please present some information to suggest that any of the negative things that fill your imagination, fantasy world will come true. The three credit rating agencies think Thailand is doing well and has a stable low unemployment future. I think they know a bit more than you. Why would you pull this kind of nonsense out of the hat. The UK is in a triple dip recession and about to have it's credit rating lowered by the same agencies that are saying nothing but good things about Thailand. You are way off base. If not present some information that supports your wild unreal ideas.

 

everything that goes up must come down.

the rest of the world was on the up and hit the recession, are you really that uneducated when it comes to economics to think Asia will avoid recession in the future and will stay on top?

china is already slowing down in growth, india has riots over inflation and a number of other issues, japan is about to collapse(currency)

you really think thailand economy is that strong to sustain the growth on its own?

[marstons]

 

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

Please present some information to suggest that any of the negative things that fill your imagination, fantasy world will come true. The three credit rating agencies think Thailand is doing well and has a stable low unemployment future. I think they know a bit more than you. Why would you pull this kind of nonsense out of the hat. The UK is in a triple dip recession and about to have it's credit rating lowered by the same agencies that are saying nothing but good things about Thailand. You are way off base. If not present some information that supports your wild unreal ideas.

 

Thailand is still classed high risk, I presently am getting annual return of 10.4% non here, Asia is classed as high risk. If you consider ranked 47th as doing well, go for it. I check figures before posting not just shooting from the hip. End of debate from my part, if you know more then Skandia Investments and Prudential then really you should be out there making a fortune as you know more than these 400 guys "More than 400 economists and country-risk specialists from a range of financial institutions take part in the Euromoney survey, evaluating the risks faced by international investors in more than 180 markets."

However, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka all bucked the positive Asian trend.

Thailand is ranked the 47th-safest investment destination in Euromoney magazine's latest survey of country risk.

This marks a fall of five places as the Kingdom received deteriorating scores for political risk after the election of Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister last July.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thailand-falls-5-places-in-investment-risk-ranking-30179813.html

Edited February 21, 2013 by marstons

[whiteman]

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

What I was trying to say is that in New Zealand if you are out of the country for more than 6 months you lose your rights to your gov pension and it is a hell of a problem to get back on it.

Do you really think your government = U.K.

which is in the s--hit will keep paying you the pension when you do not live there.

One day they will be like other countries ( eg New Zealand) and stop it and the country lives within there means. NZ was the first to give the ladies the vote and also to not allow Nuke driven ships in its waters. So N.Z is a pathfinder in many things and I think they stopping the pensions if you do not live in the country is ahead of the times. Your countries time will come in this matter too.

I have lived on a low nz v bhat rate for years now it is your turn to also that is all I am saying so stop complaining.

[jingjoe8]

 

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555

 

I have to agree, today the oz dollar was for sale at 30 .07 at kasikorn ,the lowest i have seen for a few years.Also with the changes to non resident status which i have been flagged after 2 years out of country,i am no longer entitled to medicare at home and now pay 39% tax with no threshold on rental properties,life is getting tougher here.

Lucky for me i purchased a residence when the exhange rates were high.I also allowed for a 40% decline in currency when i first moved here,so not as bad off as some.

I read an article saying the average household in australia now spends $883 a month on electric and water,thats 28000bht a month!! i can't afford to live in australia any more.

[Phronesis]

Blah..blah...blah...blah...

Oh look...there is an Elephant in the room...

Sorry...Jumbo...what did you say...?

Really..you think that that when the unspeakable happens...the THB will adjust suddenly...downward...

Good point Jumbo...the others in this room are too busy speculating about currency fluctuations rather than looking at imminent realities...

[eeeya]

Its a forum. A place where people have opinions.. just like yours

[tw25rw]

Quoting rgs2001uk

What percent of the total tourism is sex tourism? Should be easy to figure as most sex tourism is single males and I believe Thailand tracks that.

I don't know, but if they were to keep a record on repeat visitors, sex tourists are likely to form a much higher percentage. The more visits, the higher the percentage.

And when they have some upheaval or natural disaster or some other thing that makes the place look bad or not safe to visit, the percentage will go up as the sex tourists, especially the repeat ones, are likely the ones that don't cancel. They are also the tourists who are more likely to enter into relationships with locals and end up in a long term relationship with the country. I think Thailand benefits more from sex tourists than they or some of the prudish non-sex expats care to believe.

As for the currency, the post 1997 correction was slow, but it was inevitable. Anyone who retired there based on mid 2000s exchange rates was always likely to get hurt.

Edited February 21, 2013 by tw25rw

[David48]

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555

Yep ... correct there.

But if observe the longer view ...

Aussie battler vs the Thai Baht over a 10 year period

The Aussie Dollar is within 10% of it's 10 year high of 33.34

Because I have longer term interests in Thailand and of a working age with considerable forward prospects, so I am converting some Australian Dollars, while the exchange rate remains above the 30 Baht to the dollar and purchasing some Thai currency denominated assets with a low risk, moderate return and moderate capital growth horizon.

It's actually a form of currency risk mitigation.

Just read what I wrote ... apologies for all the big words.

[MrWorldwide]

1. Nothing, and I mean nothing, lasts forever - ask the Romans

2. If you cant factor in periods where your home currency devalues by as much as 20% against the target currency, you shouldn't be moving to 'country X'. Look at the decliniing buying power of pensioners in their own countries over time

3. Does anyone recall what happened last time the 'Asian Tiger' economies were being touted as the 'next big thing' ? Phronesis is, IMO, correct when he mentions the 'elephant in the room'. I'd like to think that ASEAN nations have much better fundamentals now than they did back in the 90s, but we ARE talking about countries where the political system often borders on 'kleptocracy'. Not encouraging....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_currency_crisis

The causes of the debacle are many and disputed. Thailand's economy developed into a bubble fueled by "hot money". More and more was required as the size of the bubble grew. The same type of situation happened in Malaysia, and Indonesia, which had the added complication of what was called "crony capitalism".^[20] The short-term capital flow was expensive and often highly conditioned for quick profit. Development money went in a largely uncontrolled manner to certain people only, not particularly the best suited or most efficient, but those closest to the centers of power.^[21]

4. The 'move to Ecaudor' has a major drawback - you'd be living in Ecaudor. Nuff said.

End of the day, as pointed out earlier, Thailand's economy is driven by a lot more than sex tourism, and I fail to see how the Russian ruble is magically tied to the baht (<deleted> ?). China wont allow the Yuan to get to the point where US and European consumers no longer want to buy Chinese-made product - hello Wal-Mart - so where does that leave this magically powerful Thai currency ?

I prefer to look at how our dollar has fared against Asian economies which have grown consistently over the last 10 years:

AUD to KRW:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=KRW&view=10Y

AUD to SIN:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=SGD&view=10Y

Other than the nasty >30% dip in 2008 - and that was mirrored in the Aussie bleeder's performance against the baht - neither of those charts gives me cause for alarm. What does concern me is that I know that prices in both countries have risen over the last 10 years, as they have in Oz, but that is something we have zero control over. We can wring our hands over exchange rates or we can ask ourselves a simple question - what is the political impact of allowing prices to outstrip wages ? In a developed economy, it might be 'lost votes', even a (peaceful) change of government - in Malaysia/Indonesia/Thailand, it could be much worse. If I'm earning 300 baht a day in Nakhon Nowhere, what is more important to me - the relative value of that 300 baht elsewhere or what I can buy with that money locally ? We Aussies have one of the strongest currencies of anyone on TV, but ask your average housewife if she is happy about that ? Paying ~$250 a week just to fill a shopping cart would have been considered outrageous just a few short years ago - now it's considered normal. Poor Thai people simply wont be able to make that leap - even its only another 10-baht per item at the market, a pittance for hi-so Thais in Bangkok, that is going to hurt poor rural Thais. Economically and politically, I cant see any economy in the region allowing their currency to balloon - not when they are all courting Chinese investment in one form or another.

[meatboy]

i have posted many times on this issue if you think you can live on pensions forget it,me and mrs.planned for ten years before we actually moved back to los.made sure we covered everything,as she gave up her way of life to move to the uk.with me i thought planning for her was my priority.25yrs down the line we can now live comfortably in los.i only have state pension and a small private one which is enough to live on,but she played a big part earning big wages in the uk.by working long hrs.and saving it.she retired at 44,owns a 6mil.house has enough in the bank to live on for the rest of her life although she will get a private pension from 50yrs on and state pension at 66.it is not cheap to live here any more if you like the fast life,me i am happy with the quiet life of bit of gardening,eating what i want and not forgetting a drink or two,sat in my easy chair outside in the evening with my beloved dog by my side and the wf.so guys think it over before you make that move or you might come to regret it.

[canman]

"Where can I get 7%????

No ones giving that these days.. taking maybe... but giving.. no way"

You can get 10% for a 1 year deposit in Vietnam

[roamer]

I can understand why short term money finds a home here.

I have a real problem extrapolating from that to a Thai Baht that is going to remain a stable currency at anywhere near the present rates.

2023.... You still think Thailand will still be one of the worlds factories with low production cost ?

2023.... A stable democracy ?

2023....Tourism Ok ? People no longer concerned about the nuclear fallout from the Korean Peninsular ?

Quite a few think tanks dealing with those questions.

[geriatrickid]

I can understand why short term money finds a home here.

I have a real problem extrapolating from that to a Thai Baht that is going to remain a stable currency at anywhere near the present rates.

2023.... You still think Thailand will still be one of the worlds factories with low production cost ?

2023.... A stable democracy ?

2023....Tourism Ok ? People no longer concerned about the nuclear fallout from the Korean Peninsular ?

Quite a few think tanks dealing with those questions.

Fair enough, but 2023 isn't of concern for many TVFers. Many will be dead by then.

Besides, do you honestly expect some people to plan ahead 10 years? They can't even paln their next month's budget.

[LawrenceChee]

There are many "retired" economists here who enjoy ranting their theories and proving why they are smarter than the rest and trying to predict the future

I suspect many people here just want to have enough for their daily living.

No point running them down. When it comes to $$$ the simplest theory work

Save hard, spend wisely and be content. Happiest way to be a human being

[giddyup]

 

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555

 

I have to agree, today the oz dollar was for sale at 30 .07 at kasikorn ,the lowest i have seen for a few years.Also with the changes to non resident status which i have been flagged after 2 years out of country,i am no longer entitled to medicare at home and now pay 39% tax with no threshold on rental properties,life is getting tougher here.

Lucky for me i purchased a residence when the exhange rates were high.I also allowed for a 40% decline in currency when i first moved here,so not as bad off as some.

I read an article saying the average household in australia now spends $883 a month on electric and water,thats 28000bht a month!! i can't afford to live in australia any more.

30.07 is the lowest you've seen in a few years? It was down around 27 only a couple of years ago. I remember it well because that's when I bought my house here and was pissed off because of the poor exchange rate.

[weegee]

 

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555

 

I have to agree, today the oz dollar was for sale at 30 .07 at kasikorn ,the lowest i have seen for a few years.Also with the changes to non resident status which i have been flagged after 2 years out of country,i am no longer entitled to medicare at home and now pay 39% tax with no threshold on rental properties,life is getting tougher here.

Lucky for me i purchased a residence when the exhange rates were high.I also allowed for a 40% decline in currency when i first moved here,so not as bad off as some.

I read an article saying the average household in australia now spends $883 a month on electric and water,thats 28000bht a month!! i can't afford to live in australia any more.

30.07 is the lowest you've seen in a few years? It was down around 27 only a couple of years ago. I remember it well because that's when I bought my house here and was pissed off because of the poor exchange rate.

Correct...

[TommoPhysicist]

Poor people will always struggle to make ends meet.

That's life.

[Naam]

 

The Aussies are laughing ...

No exchange issues there ... near an all time 10 year high against the Baht.

.

David where have you been looking, the baht to Oz dollar has declined steadily since Xmas, I know the TG tells me most days 555

 

I have to agree, today the oz dollar was for sale at 30 .07 at kasikorn ,the lowest i have seen for a few years.Also with the changes to non resident status which i have been flagged after 2 years out of country,i am no longer entitled to medicare at home and now pay 39% tax with no threshold on rental properties,life is getting tougher here.

Lucky for me i purchased a residence when the exhange rates were high.I also allowed for a 40% decline in currency when i first moved here,so not as bad off as some.

I read an article saying the average household in australia now spends $883 a month on electric and water,thats 28000bht a month!! i can't afford to live in australia any more.

30.07 is the lowest you've seen in a few years? It was down around 27 only a couple of years ago. I remember it well because that's when I bought my house here and was pissed off because of the poor exchange rate.

nobody remembers end of october 2008 when AUD 1 bought 21 Baht?

[Naam]

The aussies are laughing as the currency is on a 10 yr high and we earn 4.90% on online savings accounts. -- living off that over here makes life very cheap indeed.

OP does not have a crystal ball and probably knows very little about currency futures or IRD's (interest rate derivatives). Currencies fluctuate and are extremely volatile.

If OP is correct then move to Equador as its very cheap to live on under usd1000 per month. Currently can earn 7% on your money in citibank

Where can I get 7%????

No ones giving that these days.. taking maybe... but giving.. no way

-Ecuador government bond (US-Dollars) USP8055QDE90 maturity dec 2015 yields 8,493%

-Venezuela government bond (US-Dollars) USP97475AP55 maturity oct 2024 yields 8,999%

-Argentina government bond (US-Dollars) XS0501195480 maturity jun 2017 yields 16,581%

[poanoi]

Cambodia is using US dollar, which is falling much faster than anything else,

and i'm fed up with pattaya traffic jam anyway, not to mention the visa hassle,

so an easy answer for me.

BTW thai baht wont gain 30-50% vs my currency in my lifetime, let alone 10 years

[chiangmaikelly]

 

 

 

[

Good for you, but most European countries will freeze the pension if they know / find out that the pensioner is not living (for a certain amount of days in the year) in the Country where they receive the Pension

[/quote

They have been doing that for years if you are a New zealander] and I never counted on getting a government pension from them.

Also the nz$ is around 24.7 to the bhat and I have been here 10 years and it has been known to hit 22 so you usa and uk and Europeans at last you are joining the real world.

You guys have had it too good for too long now you are paying the price of government bad management and over spending

 

I can claim my pension outside UK and get increase if in certain Asian countries. the Thais have also been having it good with currency being weak they way it was with exports and tourism. If unemployment soars and debts are not repaid nobody will be having it to good here. USA UK and Europe are the real world, NZ, well good for Hobbit films but cannot be compared to USA UK and Europe when talking real world.

 

Please present some information to suggest that any of the negative things that fill your imagination, fantasy world will come true. The three credit rating agencies think Thailand is doing well and has a stable low unemployment future. I think they know a bit more than you. Why would you pull this kind of nonsense out of the hat. The UK is in a triple dip recession and about to have it's credit rating lowered by the same agencies that are saying nothing but good things about Thailand. You are way off base. If not present some information that supports your wild unreal ideas.

 

Thailand is still classed high risk, I presently am getting annual return of 10.4% non here, Asia is classed as high risk. If you consider ranked 47th as doing well, go for it. I check figures before posting not just shooting from the hip. End of debate from my part, if you know more then Skandia Investments and Prudential then really you should be out there making a fortune as you know more than these 400 guys "More than 400 economists and country-risk specialists from a range of financial institutions take part in the Euromoney survey, evaluating the risks faced by international investors in more than 180 markets."

However, India, Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka all bucked the positive Asian trend.

Thailand is ranked the 47th-safest investment destination in Euromoney magazine's latest survey of country risk.

This marks a fall of five places as the Kingdom received deteriorating scores for political risk after the election of Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister last July.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thailand-falls-5-places-in-investment-risk-ranking-30179813.html

The magazine you link has a more recent story Thailand's Risk Score Improves as economy surpasses......

40th out of 180 countries is doing bad? Hmmmm.

http://www.euromoney.com/Article/3082097/SubPage/9449/ChannelPage/0/Region/14091/Thailands-risk-score-irmpoves-as-economy-surpasses-growth-forecast-estimates.html

Edited February 22, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[MrWorldwide]

There are many "retired" economists here who enjoy ranting their theories and proving why they are smarter than the rest and trying to predict the future I suspect many people here just want to have enough for their daily living. No point running them down. When it comes to $$$ the simplest theory work Save hard, spend wisely and be content. Happiest way to be a human being

Lawrence, its all well and good to make such noble pronouncements, but that assumes that Farang will even be employed in Thailand in 10 years time, and it also makes no room for those of us who have worked our entire lives and have no particular desire to drag our sorry butts onto a Skytrain every morning. There IS a school of thought here in Oz that says men go downhill a lot faster than women in retirement, but that was for a generation that didnt seem to know mjuch beyond work other than smoking, drinking and gambling. My experience is that they threw themselves into each of those pursuits with reckless enthusiasm, but our health system is paying for it as I type this.

(those in specialist industries such as oil and gas may smirk at my prediction above re Farang working in Thailand, but I guess time will tell)

)

[chiangmaikelly]

everything that goes up must come down.

the rest of the world was

on the up and hit the recession, are you really that uneducated when it

comes to economics to think Asia will avoid recession in the future and

will stay on top?

china is already slowing down in growth, india

has riots over inflation and a number of other issues, japan is about

to collapse(currency)

you really think thailand economy is that strong to sustain the growth on its own?

"If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, 1907 NYC and 2007 Asia." Jim Rogers.

Marc Farber lives in Chiang Mai. So no not me. I 'm a nobody. Check with Rogers and Farber for your financial questions. Last time I checked they both said Thailand was still a good investment. Of course it is hard to question such wisdom as, "everything that goes up must come down." Got that from the London School of Economics eh?

[Berkshire]

-Ecuador government bond (US-Dollars) USP8055QDE90 maturity dec 2015 yields 8,493%

-Venezuela government bond (US-Dollars) USP97475AP55 maturity oct 2024 yields 8,999%

-Argentina government bond (US-Dollars) XS0501195480 maturity jun 2017 yields 16,581%

I'd imagine you can get some pretty good yields on Greek bonds as well...don't you think?

It's all a matter of risk. The only way these bonds are paying those high yields is because they're at risk of default. Unless I'm missing something....?

[blackdug]

everything that goes up must come down.

the rest of the world was

on the up and hit the recession, are you really that uneducated when it

comes to economics to think Asia will avoid recession in the future and

will stay on top?

china is already slowing down in growth, india

has riots over inflation and a number of other issues, japan is about

to collapse(currency)

you really think thailand economy is that strong to sustain the growth on its own?

"If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, 1907 NYC and 2007 Asia." Jim Rogers.

Marc Farber lives in Chiang Mai. So no not me. I 'm a nobody. Check with Rogers and Farber for your financial questions. Last time I checked they both said Thailand was still a good investment. Of course it is hard to question such wisdom as, "everything that goes up must come down." Got that from the London School of Economics eh?

...farber has not got a financial prediction right in years ,,check out his gold predictions ...he is a bigger waffler than you!!!! And that is saying something....currency wars have been predicted for years now and it looks like Thailand just does not get it yet!!!i was here when the Asian tiger crap was all the rage and I was also here when the crap hit the fan ,,,Thais are ruled by nepotistic fools who at first sign of trouble will bring the baht tumbling....this is my experience seen by my own eyes..what goes up comes down and my old man called it swings and roundabouts

[chiangmaikelly]

everything that goes up must come down.

the rest of the world was

on the up and hit the recession, are you really that uneducated when it

comes to economics to think Asia will avoid recession in the future and

will stay on top?

china is already slowing down in growth, india

has riots over inflation and a number of other issues, japan is about

to collapse(currency)

you really think thailand economy is that strong to sustain the growth on its own?

"If you were smart in 1807 you moved to London, 1907 NYC and 2007 Asia." Jim Rogers.

Marc Farber lives in Chiang Mai. So no not me. I 'm a nobody. Check with Rogers and Farber for your financial questions. Last time I checked they both said Thailand was still a good investment. Of course it is hard to question such wisdom as, "everything that goes up must come down." Got that from the London School of Economics eh?

...farber has not got a financial prediction right in years ,,check out his gold predictions ...he is a bigger waffler than you!!!! And that is saying something....currency wars have been predicted for years now and it looks like Thailand just does not get it yet!!!i was here when the Asian tiger crap was all the rage and I was also here when the crap hit the fan ,,,Thais are ruled by nepotistic fools who at first sign of trouble will bring the baht tumbling....this is my experience seen by my own eyes..what goes up comes down and my old man called it swings and roundabouts

I defy you to find one example let alone a trend of me waffling. So put your money where your mouth is and quote a trend or even one example where I have waffled. I challenge you. Or go along with the rest of the old folks quoting your homespun proverbs that have nothing to do with economics like, "what goes up must come down."

Just to prepare the readers for what is to come. No one ever quotes me. Only vague attacks of what they think I may have said at one time or another and other disparaging remarks; but never a quote. Waffling would mean I said the economy was good and then bad or some other example of changing my view to suite the circumstances. You read it here first. No one ever quotes me.

Edited February 22, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[Naam]

-Ecuador government bond (US-Dollars) USP8055QDE90 maturity dec 2015 yields 8,493%

-Venezuela government bond (US-Dollars) USP97475AP55 maturity oct 2024 yields 8,999%

-Argentina government bond (US-Dollars) XS0501195480 maturity jun 2017 yields 16,581%

I'd imagine you can get some pretty good yields on Greek bonds as well...don't you think?

It's all a matter of risk. The only way these bonds are paying those high yields is because they're at risk of default. Unless I'm missing something....?

nowadays Greek bonds yield a pittance considering the still prevailing risk. the same applies to Portugal and Spain.

as far as Venezuela is concerned no default since the last debt restructuring more than 20 years ago. Argentina default in 2001, Ecuador partial default in 2008.

[wamberal]

There are many "retired" economists here who enjoy ranting their theories and proving why they are smarter than the rest and trying to predict the future I suspect many people here just want to have enough for their daily living. No point running them down. When it comes to $$$ the simplest theory work Save hard, spend wisely and be content. Happiest way to be a human being

I can predict the future will contain surprises of all kinds, particularly for those poor saps who have retired in Thailand on fixed incomes in currencies other than the Thai baht.

As for you, I hope nothing unexpected happens in your life, but you know, the unexpected always happens.