Credit And Housing Bubble In China - Will It Burst And How Will It Affect Thailand?

[ExpatOilWorker]

Can we stick to the economic facts rather than the character assassination route……..?

you start with facts...

Lets try a little fact from the bottom up. I have a co-worker from main land China. He is a classic case, wife, 1 kid and 4 grand parents to support from his oilfield salary.

He also bought in on the Chinese real estate market and have a condo with, in his mind, a value of $500,000, but is renting it out for $1,000 a month.

Not a very good return of investment, consider he also have to pay maintenance fee and tax.

I would say he is just an average landlord, but add the XY millions of empty condo units and the Chinese real-estate market is no longer healthy. By all means, it was great 5 years ago, but so was the US housing market in early 2000. It just didn't last forever.

Edited April 22, 2013 by ExpatOilWorker

[Naam]

But these activities have not created a sustainable economic model where

the product of such labour can generate a stable revenue stream?

the Chinese are running since nearly two decades an economic model most,

if not all, countries would like to have.

no yada yada sidestepping yakety-yak diversion changes that fact. period!

...and as result of no regulations (no yada yada), you have rivers of dead pigs, baby milk that kills rather than giving life, air pollution so thick it burns your eyes.

Don't get me wrong, the China miracle is an amazing story in growth and western countries also have had their own history of pollution with burning rivers in the US, toxic river Rhine in Germany, Mercury from a paper factory in Japan.

Just have a funny feeling 2 decades of growth is running out of steam and wonder what will happen next.

i concede that the "steam pressure" is obviously less than it was. but that should not lead to assumptions which cannot be quantified. China has one huge advantage, matched perhaps only by "Baby Kim" in North Korea. no yak-yak like in a western parliament, no supreme court which tells the leaders "you are not allowed" or "this is unconstitutional".

the leading brass decides, the lower ranks agree, bow and clap their hands.

Edited April 22, 2013 by Naam

[midas]

It's estimated by accounting firms...

...such as silver doctors, gold surgeons, consolidated chicken little unions...

It doesn't have to be from such sources…………….

China debt: Moody’s warning

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/07/05/china-debt-moodys-warning/#axzz2RBE06qrh

Fitch warns on China debt

http://latestwire.com/2013/04/10/fitch-warns-on-china-debt/

[Naam]

It's estimated by accounting firms...

...such as silver doctors, gold surgeons, consolidated chicken little unions...

It doesn't have to be from such sources…………….

China debt: Moody’s warning

http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/07/05/china-debt-moodys-warning/#axzz2RBE06qrh

Fitch warns on China debt

http://latestwire.com/2013/04/10/fitch-warns-on-china-debt/

warnings from the eggsburts who rated subprime debt AAA-ok?

[davejones]

But these activities have not created a sustainable economic model where

the product of such labour can generate a stable revenue stream?

the Chinese are running since nearly two decades an economic model most,

if not all, countries would like to have.

no yada yada sidestepping yakety-yak diversion changes that fact. period!

...and as result of no regulations (no yada yada), you have rivers of dead pigs, baby milk that kills rather than giving life, air pollution so thick it burns your eyes.

Don't get me wrong, the China miracle is an amazing story in growth and western countries also have had their own history of pollution with burning rivers in the US, toxic river Rhine in Germany, Mercury from a paper factory in Japan.

Just have a funny feeling 2 decades of growth is running out of steam and wonder what will happen next.

Just like the West, growth needs to come first, and then regulations second. If they over-regulate now, then there won't be any growth. No-one's claiming China is perfect, but I think many are missing the point (to the point of denial), that China is growing at a phenomenal rate. There are bound to be slowdowns, but when one comes it doesn't mean it's the end. USA and Europe have had plenty of busts over the years. But life goes on, and growth returns. China will get multiple time bigger than most on here imagine. I think many making negative comments should go somewhere like Shanghai. It's a first-world city, and makes many US and Euro cities look like 3rd world places. I'm not saying all of China is like that. But they're only at the start if their growth. You can pint out all the dead pigs you like, but in the UK they routinely burn tens of thousands of cows. It's not different. Isolated incidents, even if there are many of them, doesn't mean that China won't continue to grow.

Property market may be in a bubble. If it is, it will collapse or deflate. Then things will get back to normal, as they do in the West. To many on here seem to think growth dropping from 10% to 9% is somehow the end of the world. Get real guys. Growth has to slow down at some point.

[ExpatOilWorker]

3½ Trillion (3,500,000,000,000) Dollars value of reserves do not exactly point to "no value generated" or "holes dug and filled".

Dear God,

what crime did i commit that you force me to discuss macroeconomics with Midas and ExpOilW?

Is sovereign foreign reserves even relevant to the future growth of a country? Sure China can defend the Yuan to the end of times, but there is hardly a run on the Yuan.

Whatever you did, it must have been pretty bad, but look at the bright side, you are now blessed with unlimited financial knowledge of a Midget and ExpatOilfieldTrash.

[yoshiwara]

Can we stick to the economic facts rather than the character assassination route……..?

Your concept of a fact usually starts with 'There is no other explanation for......'

or 'Germany has demanded...' and mutating further on to 'An unnamed CDU parliamentarian has demanded...'

Repeat and wash...

Edited April 23, 2013 by yoshiwara

[Naam]

3½ Trillion (3,500,000,000,000) Dollars value of reserves do not exactly point to "no value generated" or "holes dug and filled".

Dear God,

what crime did i commit that you force me to discuss macroeconomics with Midas and ExpOilW?

Is sovereign foreign reserves even relevant to the future growth of a country? Sure China can defend the Yuan to the end of times, but there is hardly a run on the Yuan.

Whatever you did, it must have been pretty bad, but look at the bright side, you are now blessed with unlimited financial knowledge of a Midget and ExpatOilfieldTrash.

no, reserves are not really relevant. and deliberate diversions are irrelevant. it was quite clear that i mentioned foreign reserves in context with the claim "no value created". that wouldn't apply even if the Tooth Fairy placed the trillions below the pillow the Chinese central bank.

p.s. there is no (and not "hardly") any run on CNY, the opposite is the case. and to defend the Chinese position on CNY no reserves are required. but surely you are well aware of both fact and your posting was meant as a trap?

[ExpatOilWorker]

I do actually agree, that a lot of wealth have been generated in the last 20 years in China. I am just starting to question if the relentless 7-10% yearly growth in GDP is sustainable much longer and what will happen next.
It is like China just have been building a diesel engine with more and more horse power each year, but this engine need more and more fuel. 8% growth = 8% more oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.

This is obviously not sustainable and I have seen a graph where China and India will consume 100% of global oil exports, jep the whole lot, by 2025.

How will China change gear? Will they “copy” the west again and pop the real-estate bubble, have a banking crises or will they all clap on command and do something totally different?

[mccw]

I do actually agree, that a lot of wealth have been generated in the last 20 years in China. I am just starting to question if the relentless 7-10% yearly growth in GDP is sustainable much longer and what will happen next.

It is like China just have been building a diesel engine with more and more horse power each year, but this engine need more and more fuel. 8% growth = 8% more oil, coal, steel, copper, etc.

This is obviously not sustainable and I have seen a graph where China and India will consume 100% of global oil exports, jep the whole lot, by 2025.

How will China change gear? Will they copy the west again and pop the real-estate bubble, have a banking crises or will they all clap on command and do something totally different?

The dropping oil price speaks worlds about how speculative rather than real world demand based the commodities markets are. With china continueing to expand at such a pace oil and other commodities should be rising, especially when most oil now is at an 80 dollar break even point. Long term commodities must keep rising in cost due to supply side costs and post peak production realities. How this will effect the world? I expect those countries allowing a rising or strong currency to do better. I expect china will shift in this direction , garranteeing employment to the masses by central planned infrastructure or other projects to pick up from the dropping exports; the wests demand will keep shrinking anyway due to devalueing currency mixed with rising costs of living equaling lower demand / disposable incomes. Thailand will likely opt for the same route of stronger currency to keep inflation under control and the masses from revolting. Its the same as has happened previously in commodities / currency cycles. The west is too debt laden broke to try for the strong side and will suffer for next decades to come. No "recovery" possible with the resource picture as it is. Imagine if by some miracle the west picked up to 5-7% , oil would be up $200 a barrel and soon kill it.

[midas]

But these activities have not created a sustainable economic model where

the product of such labour can generate a stable revenue stream?

the Chinese are running since nearly two decades an economic model most,

if not all, countries would like to have.

no yada yada sidestepping yakety-yak diversion changes that fact. period!

" the Chinese are running since nearly two decades an economic model most, if not all, countries would like to have."

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-22393999

[Naam]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

[yoshiwara]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

Not to mention ratatouille being on many Western menus.

[ExpatOilWorker]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

I really don't see anything to admire in the Chinese economic model. Impressive growth, but at a price and I doubt it is sustainable. No freedom of speech, lag of fair law, few individual rights, atrocious pollution and of course one food scandal after the other. I lived in China for a year and from a street level perspective, the Chinese are also not happy, they are tense and confused.

[Naam]

No freedom of speech, lag of fair law, few individual rights

these are of course important criteria to judge an economy

[Naam]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

Not to mention ratatouille being on many Western menus.

worthwhile to mention is the journàsslistic logic "20,000 tons of fox and rat meat". that takes how many foxes and rats?

[ExpatOilWorker]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

Not to mention ratatouille being on many Western menus.

worthwhile to mention is the journàsslistic logic "20,000 tons of fox and rat meat". that takes how many foxes and rats?

All fun and games to you this morning?

20,000,000 kg was the reported number, but what is the true number of sub-standard or fake meat in China?

The Chinese consumers are taking note and beef imports are up 500%.

[Naam]

20,000,000 kg was the reported number, but what is the true number of sub-standard or fake meat in China?

i apologise for my foreign English that you don't understand

[Naam]

The Chinese consumers are taking note and beef imports are up 500%

Argentina and Brazil are happy. but... are these consumer allowed to take note? aren't individual rights suppressed and hardly existing?

[topt]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

I really don't see anything to admire in the Chinese economic model. Impressive growth, but at a price and I doubt it is sustainable. No freedom of speech, lag of fair law, few individual rights, atrocious pollution and of course one food scandal after the other. I lived in China for a year and from a street level perspective, the Chinese are also not happy, they are tense and confused.

Depends what you mean by "street level"? I have been in Guangzhou now for nearly 5 years (too long!) and the girls in the office who have basic office skills but no real higher education are pretty relaxed and certainly do not come across as confused. They basically have little interest in politics and, as long as their standard of living rises, accept whatever is happening as they feel they cannot affect it.

The more entrepreneurial Chinese I come across are loving the opportunities they have and making the most of it. The only thing concerning them at the moment is the strength of the RMB against the $US.

[mccw]

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

Chinese ingenuity? what's the percentage of criminals we are talking about? what's 20k tons of fake meat in comparison what 1.3 billion people eat daily? what shit is going on in other countries when fake or tainted meat is concerned?

the fact remains that the Chinese are running since more than two decades a very successful economic model. the mediterranean debtor nations (and others) wouldn't mind their population consuming some foxes and rats (the latter a delicacy in Thailand and a dozen other countries in Asia and Africa) if that would solve their problem.

next!

Not to mention ratatouille being on many Western menus.

worthwhile to mention is the journàsslistic logic "20,000 tons of fox and rat meat". that takes how many foxes and rats?

All fun and games to you this morning?

20,000,000 kg was the reported number, but what is the true number of sub-standard or fake meat in China?

The Chinese consumers are taking note and beef imports are up 500%.

Importing the cheapo substandard horse beef from the EU that's been used since years in western processed foods due to the beef price inflation.

[NeverSure]

3½ Trillion (3,500,000,000,000) Dollars value of reserves do not exactly point to "no value generated" or "holes dug and filled".

Dear God,

what crime did i commit that you force me to discuss macroeconomics with Midas and ExpOilW?

You don't know shit about macroeconomics. China's debt is 43% of its GDP, and that's just what it will admit. It doesn't figure the policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.

Those non performing loans could well include much of those very real ghost cities in the middle of nowhere.

You also have no clue what foreign reserves are, what they are for or what offsets them. China is probably in debt more like $4 tril.

Additionally, while we talk about China's growth in GDP, it would be more important to talk about its profit on production since China is communist and owns the means of production. It's profits have fallen because of the world economy. Specifically, it is still selling shit to Walmart for nickles, but the big profit, high value items are not selling.

A little lesson for you. If my business has a growth of 50% this year, but profits fall from very good to almost zip, I may actually be in deep shit.

I realize you like to think you rule this forum with your one-liners, but your understanding is limited to world events, not macroeconomics.

Comprende?

Edited May 6, 2013 by NeverSure

[mccw]

China 43% debt to GDP

West has 80-90-100+ % and still faces all the in accounted debts in its banking, business, local government and personal levels.

China also has the strong party rule system to act rather than feeble co-opted "democratic" western government in the pocket of the globalist banking elite.

Edited May 6, 2013 by mccw

[NeverSure]

China 43% debt to GDP

West has 80-90-100+ % and still faces all the in accounted debts in its banking, business, local government and personal levels.

China also has the strong party rule system to act rather than feeble co-opted "democratic" western government in the pocket of the globalist banking elite.

That doesn't prove that China's banks are transparent or solvent. China's 43% doesn't count a lot of their debt. As I said, when naming their debt to GDP, they don't account for the policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.

No one knows what they have for non-performing loans, but those huge ghost cities are real and they are massive.

As for their ownership of US debt, they printed the money to buy that. It's no different than when the US Fed buys Euros so that the ECB will have dollars which they need for international trade such as buying oil. The Fed swaps fiat money with the ECB. Now each could say that they hold xx dollars and euros as "reserves" but where did it come from? Thin air.

So, in a paper transaction of NO value, the Euros are deposited with the US Fed, and the US fed produces the dollars. Do you see any real value there? The Euro countries can boast that they hold xx in US dollars. The US Fed can boast that it holds xx in Euros. The Fed has bought Euro bonds with dollars. It's all bullshit - paper shuffling.

China's profits are suffering. They recently dipped into the red for a while. Because unlike the West where these would be private corporations in the red, in China it's the government in the red.

Don't pay too much attention to what China says. They are hurting. They are communist and they have 1.3 billion people to feed and house. Their profits are way off. I'm not defending Western governments or declaring their solvency. I'm just saying don't get too over hyped about the current conditions in China.

[midas]

3½ Trillion (3,500,000,000,000) Dollars value of reserves do not exactly point to "no value generated" or "holes dug and filled".

Dear God,

what crime did i commit that you force me to discuss macroeconomics with Midas and ExpOilW?

You don't know shit about macroeconomics. China's debt is 43% of its GDP, and that's just what it will admit. It doesn't figure the policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.

Those non performing loans could well include much of those very real ghost cities in the middle of nowhere.

You also have no clue what foreign reserves are, what they are for or what offsets them. China is probably in debt more like $4 tril.

Additionally, while we talk about China's growth in GDP, it would be more important to talk about its profit on production since China is communist and owns the means of production. It's profits have fallen because of the world economy. Specifically, it is still selling shit to Walmart for nickles, but the big profit, high value items are not selling.

A little lesson for you. If my business has a growth of 50% this year, but profits fall from very good to almost zip, I may actually be in deep shit.

I realize you like to think you rule this forum with your one-liners, but your understanding is limited to world events, not macroeconomics.

Comprende?

Forbes Reporting China’s National Debt Is As Bad As America’s, Possibly Worse Than Greece

Beijing, of course, has no debt ceiling to raise, and so it has avoided a public airing of its problems. And China’s debt situation is at least as serious as America’s. Chinese leaders tell us their country’s debt-to-GDP ratio was 17% at the end of last year, but the figure is more like 89% according to Beijing-based Dragonomics. If the respected research firm is correct, then China’s ratio was just about the same as America’s, which was around 93% then. And a growing number of analysts disagree with the Dragonomics figure, putting China’s ratio as high as 160%.

http://www.feelguide.com/2011/08/01/forbes-reporting-chinas-national-debt-is-as-bad-as-americas-possibly-worse-than-greece/

Edited May 6, 2013 by midas

[Naam]

China 43% debt to GDP

West has 80-90-100+ % and still faces all the in accounted debts in its banking, business, local government and personal levels.

China also has the strong party rule system to act rather than feeble co-opted "democratic" western government in the pocket of the globalist banking elite.

That doesn't prove that China's banks are transparent or solvent. China's 43% doesn't count a lot of their debt. As I said, when naming their debt to GDP, they don't account for the policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.

No one knows what they have for non-performing loans, but those huge ghost cities are real and they are massive.

As for their ownership of US debt, they printed the money to buy that. It's no different than when the US Fed buys Euros so that the ECB will have dollars which they need for international trade such as buying oil. The Fed swaps fiat money with the ECB. Now each could say that they hold xx dollars and euros as "reserves" but where did it come from? Thin air.

So, in a paper transaction of NO value, the Euros are deposited with the US Fed, and the US fed produces the dollars. Do you see any real value there? The Euro countries can boast that they hold xx in US dollars. The US Fed can boast that it holds xx in Euros. The Fed has bought Euro bonds with dollars. It's all bullshit - paper shuffling.

China's profits are suffering. They recently dipped into the red for a while. Because unlike the West where these would be private corporations in the red, in China it's the government in the red.

Don't pay too much attention to what China says. They are hurting. They are communist and they have 1.3 billion people to feed and house. Their profits are way off. I'm not defending Western governments or declaring their solvency. I'm just saying don't get too over hyped about the current conditions in China.

if somebody knows shit about anything than it's a poor former bank teller with a big mouth.

[mccw]

There are risks everywhere. But I am more concerned about the west than china.

For all the bleeding hearts about the modern china I bet the people are much happier now than living/ dying through the great famine or culture revolution watching helplessly as their heritage is destroyed and holy people humiliated by the brainless young mobs.

[midas]

Top banks weighed down by overdue loans

Bad loans are weighing heavily on China's top commercial banks this year, and are likely to hit profitability andasset quality, a report released by PwC claimed on Thursday.

Thestudyrevealedthattotaloverdueloansamongthecountry'stop 10 listedbankshadincreasedto 486.5 billionyuan ($79.3 billion) bytheendoflastyear, up 29 percentfrom 2011.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/8239710.html

Edited May 10, 2013 by midas

[aussiebebe]

Top banks weighed down by overdue loans

Bad loans are weighing heavily on China's top commercial banks this year, and are likely to hit profitability andasset quality, a report released by PwC claimed on Thursday.

Thestudyrevealedthattotaloverdueloansamongthecountry'stop 10 listedbankshadincreasedto 486.5 billionyuan ($79.3 billion) bytheendoflastyear, up 29 percentfrom 2011.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/8239710.html

from that article I noted:

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, said that China's shadowbanking sector could now be worth as much as 36 trillion yuan, 69 percent of China'sGDP, and the scale has doubled in past two years.

Now that's a bubble! The Chinese government just dictates what GDP it wants and then the local governments achieve this through building. Growth is all built on debt in the form of government-issued bonds. I've no idea how long this can go on for but it can't carry on increasing at this rate.

[yoshiwara]

3½ Trillion (3,500,000,000,000) Dollars value of reserves do not exactly point to "no value generated" or "holes dug and filled".

Dear God,

what crime did i commit that you force me to discuss macroeconomics with Midas and ExpOilW?

You don't know shit about macroeconomics. China's debt is 43% of its GDP, and that's just what it will admit. It doesn't figure the policy bank bonds, Ministry of Railway debt, China Asset Management Company debt, and non-performing loans.

Those non performing loans could well include much of those very real ghost cities in the middle of nowhere.

You also have no clue what foreign reserves are, what they are for or what offsets them. China is probably in debt more like $4 tril.

Additionally, while we talk about China's growth in GDP, it would be more important to talk about its profit on production since China is communist and owns the means of production. It's profits have fallen because of the world economy. Specifically, it is still selling shit to Walmart for nickles, but the big profit, high value items are not selling.

A little lesson for you. If my business has a growth of 50% this year, but profits fall from very good to almost zip, I may actually be in deep shit.

I realize you like to think you rule this forum with your one-liners, but your understanding is limited to world events, not macroeconomics.

Comprende?

China is communist in name only. It is better understood as a state capitalist country. (not to be confused with a bureaucratic collectivist theory - see Burnham and Shachtman for that one). And by the way, communist societies do not produce 'profits'. It would seem that much vaunted macroeconomic understanding is shallow at best. As for 'the little lesson', that one doesn't amount to much more than a speculative homily. 'Comprende?' In the above case we don't think so.