Credit And Housing Bubble In China - Will It Burst And How Will It Affect Thailand?

[allalong]

Whose shoes would u prefer to be in China or Usa? Usa politicial structure is screwed.Gridlock. China can change policy and act immediately.Dont have to rely on whether Boehner .Reid and Obama can agree:rolleyes:

Sent from my GT-S7500L using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited May 12, 2013 by allalong

[yoshiwara]

Whose shoes would u prefer to be in China or Usa? Usa politicial structure is screwed.Gridlock. China can change policy and act immediately.Dont have to rely on whether Boehner .Reid and Obama can agree:rolleyes: Sent from my GT-S7500L using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No it can't. Passing a policy and executing it through the bureaucratic layers are two quite different things.

[mccw]

Whose shoes would u prefer to be in China or Usa? Usa politicial structure is screwed.Gridlock. China can change policy and act immediately.Dont have to rely on whether Boehner .Reid and Obama can agree:rolleyes: Sent from my GT-S7500L using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

No it can't. Passing a policy and executing it through the bureaucratic layers are two quite different things.

Depends what kind of policy your talking about. If its "increase gold purchases" or "let's build a high speed rail network" then its proven to be extremely quick and effective. Thousands of tons and miles of track in just a few years. Compare with UK or Australia and china would have finished before the western talking shop had even got past the public consultation stage- 30 years for just a single line if lucky. I can imagine jokes amongst the Chinese leaders about things like this. But if your talking about rooting out corruption then yes maybe not do easy. But they do regularly catch, prosecute and even execute corrupt officials and attempt to change the state dynamic to achieve results. For Example the breaking up of the railways ministry. It was decided and done in what, a few months or a year? How long do any meaningful reforms take in the west? If they happen at all? Years of expensive studies, modling and consultations until a watered down useless version is implemented that doesn't fix the problem it set out to. Like the universal credit benifit reforms of UK or Obama care in US

[midas]

China’s Urban Dream Denied

Meanwhile, housing prices have skyrocketed in cities, with the national average housing price increasing by 250% in the decade between 2000 and 2010. The housing price-income ratio classifies much of China as“severely unaffordable” in terms of housing. In big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, a modest apartment can cost multiple millions ofyuan to purchase, and thousands of yuan to rent, making housing affordability the top concern of most low- and middle- income households.

http://thediplomat.com/2013/05/14/chinas-urban-dream-denied/?all=true

Edited May 14, 2013 by midas

[midas]

" the Chinese are running since nearly two decades an economic model most, if not all, countries would like to have."

>

More than 900 people have been arrested in China for selling fake or tainted meat in the last three months, state media say.

Officials say they uncovered almost 400 such cases and seized more than 20,000 tonnes of fake meat.

In one case, the suspects made fake mutton from foxes, mink and rats after adding chemicals, state media said.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-22393999

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING

is <deleted> real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

As China Daily reported Wednesday, police in Fujian province confiscated more than 2 million condoms falsely labeled as Durex, Contex, and Jissbon products, following a March 29 raid

As Bloomberg adds, in April, public health authorities from Ghana impounded more than 1 million substandard condoms, many of them imported from China. “When we tested these condoms, we found that they are poor quality, can burst in the course of sexual activity, and have holes which expose the users to unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease."

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-05-15/chinas-counterfeit-condoms#r=rss

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Similar situation to Japan's boom in the 80's.

Valuations were way up on real estate. Everybody was leveraging profits to buy more property. Investors took those paper profits and invested in other markets.

When the real estate bubble popped then they dumped their foreign investments to cover their domestic positions.

A little north of Chiang Mai a Japanese funded condo under construction sat partially built for like 20 years. (overlooks green valley golf course)

Someone else is just now trying to complete it.

Similar situation could occur with China and Thailand. A lot of that easy development and investment funding could reverse flow to cover debts in China.

China will no doubt be huge economy but maybe never #1 projection that everyone was counting on.

The ghost cities problem highlights how a government directed economy can make mistakes. Some estimates such as from Jim Chanos are that China's recent GDP growth has been as much 50% from domestic construction. By comparison the US GDP was only about 17% domestic construction before the 08 bubble bust.

The fear is that the Chinese economy is not structured for slower growth of say 3 to 5%. Going from 9% to <5% would cause deflationary crisis.

I guess we will find out in a next few years

It's significant risk to regional real estate valuations as well as US/EU. Pretty much nowhere to hide scenario.

[Naam]

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING is &lt;deleted&gt; real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

sure Midas, you are of course right and the $4 trillion of Chinese reserves are totally wrong, fake and an illusion. i also hope you are right concerning the dramatic consequences. the high yield bond market drives tears into my eyes. my average fixed income yield has dropped to miniscule 9.2% p.a. plus some (estimated) deplorable capital gains of 6-8% for this calendar year. makes me wonder whether i can still afford the food for two dogs. what i am looking for are "dramatic consequences" and the chances these consequences present (like 2008/2009).

[NeverSure]

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING is &lt;deleted&gt; real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

sure Midas, you are of course right and the $4 trillion of Chinese reserves are totally wrong, fake and an illusion. i also hope you are right concerning the dramatic consequences. the high yield bond market drives tears into my eyes. my average fixed income yield has dropped to miniscule 9.2% p.a. plus some (estimated) deplorable capital gains of 6-8% for this calendar year. makes me wonder whether i can still afford the food for two dogs. what i am looking for are "dramatic consequences" and the chances these consequences present (like 2008/2009).

Naam, why do you turn a debate into another boast about your personal finances? You boast so much that I don't believe you. Surely you protest too much.

Your time would be better spent reading the posts above with credible links to statements that China's in a world of hurts, and maybe double a world of hurts.

I will be right here on this forum when China goes down to tell you "I told you so."

[Naam]

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING is &lt;deleted&gt; real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

sure Midas, you are of course right and the $4 trillion of Chinese reserves are totally wrong, fake and an illusion. i also hope you are right concerning the dramatic consequences. the high yield bond market drives tears into my eyes. my average fixed income yield has dropped to miniscule 9.2% p.a. plus some (estimated) deplorable capital gains of 6-8% for this calendar year. makes me wonder whether i can still afford the food for two dogs. what i am looking for are "dramatic consequences" and the chances these consequences present (like 2008/2009).

Naam, why do you turn a debate into another boast about your personal finances? You boast so much that I don't believe you. Surely you protest too much.

Your time would be better spent reading the posts above with credible links to statements that China's in a world of hurts, and maybe double a world of hurts.

I will be right here on this forum when China goes down to tell you "I told you so."

since when i mentioning yield percentages boasting about personal finances? by the way, take a wild guess how much i care what you believe or not

[Naam]

credible link about "housing bubble" in China.

author: Mark Moebius

Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group

After more than 40 years in global emerging markets, Dr. Mobius has received numerous industry awards, including being named one of Bloomberg Markets Magazine’s “50 Most Influential People” in 2011, “Emerging Markets Equity Manager of the Year 2001” by International Money Marketing, “Ten Top Money Managers of the 20th Century” in a 1999 Carson Group survey, “Number One Global Emerging Market Fund” in a 1998 Reuters Survey, “1994 First in Business Money Manager of the Year” by CNBC, “Closed-End Fund Manager of the Year” in 1993 by Morningstar, and “Investment Trust Manager of the Year 1992” by the Sunday Telegraph.

Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,”

In 2006, Asiamoney magazine listed Mobius as one of the “Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People.” Asiamoney stated that Dr.Mobius “boasts one of the highest profiles of any investor in the region and is regarded by many in the financial industry as one of the most successful emerging markets investors over the last 20 years. Despite tough times during the financial crisis nine years ago, he still commands a strong following in the investment world and is influencing the direction of billions of investment dollars.” The World Bank and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development appointed Dr. Mobius joint chairman of the Global Corporate Governance Forum Investor Responsibility Taskforce.

http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2013/05/07/chinas-building-but-will-they-come-ghost-cities/?nicamp=&nichn=markmobius&nismseg=twitter

http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/about-me/

[midas]

Asia Goes on a Debt Binge as Much of World Sobers Up

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323789704578447080476172420.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTTopStories

[yoshiwara]

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING is &lt;deleted&gt; real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

sure Midas, you are of course right and the $4 trillion of Chinese reserves are totally wrong, fake and an illusion. i also hope you are right concerning the dramatic consequences. the high yield bond market drives tears into my eyes. my average fixed income yield has dropped to miniscule 9.2% p.a. plus some (estimated) deplorable capital gains of 6-8% for this calendar year. makes me wonder whether i can still afford the food for two dogs. what i am looking for are "dramatic consequences" and the chances these consequences present (like 2008/2009).

Naam, why do you turn a debate into another boast about your personal finances? You boast so much that I don't believe you. Surely you protest too much.

Your time would be better spent reading the posts above with credible links to statements that China's in a world of hurts, and maybe double a world of hurts.

I will be right here on this forum when China goes down to tell you "I told you so."

Because talk is cheap, meaningless and cost free when making predictions unless allied to taking a position. When someone says that they are totally convinced that something is/is not going to take place I ask them 'what is the trade?'. Jim Chanos is one who has taken out negative positions. Have you? Most of the negative fear-mongering on this forum is just thinly-disguised advertising for buying gold at all prices up or down in anticipation of the inevitable armageddon. Edited May 24, 2013 by yoshiwara

[midas]

The trouble with your perspective Naam that the Chinese economy if some kind of miracle is that NOTHING is &lt;deleted&gt; real !!!!!! it's an economy based entirely on fake products and illusion that will have dramatic consequences

sure Midas, you are of course right and the $4 trillion of Chinese reserves are totally wrong, fake and an illusion. i also hope you are right concerning the dramatic consequences. the high yield bond market drives tears into my eyes. my average fixed income yield has dropped to miniscule 9.2% p.a. plus some (estimated) deplorable capital gains of 6-8% for this calendar year. makes me wonder whether i can still afford the food for two dogs. what i am looking for are "dramatic consequences" and the chances these consequences present (like 2008/2009).

Naam, why do you turn a debate into another boast about your personal finances? You boast so much that I don't believe you. Surely you protest too much.

Your time would be better spent reading the posts above with credible links to statements that China's in a world of hurts, and maybe double a world of hurts.

I will be right here on this forum when China goes down to tell you "I told you so."

Because talk is cheap, meaningless and cost free when making predictions unless allied to taking a position. When someone says that they are totally convinced that something is/is not going to take place I ask them 'what is the trade?'. Jim Chanos is one who has taken out negative positions. Have you? Most of the negative fear-mongering on this forum is just thinly-disguised advertising for buying gold at all prices up or down in anticipation of the inevitable armageddon.

Nobody mentioned anything about gold. This is about how the world is swimming in debt . how will it be repaid?

You and the likes of you who are cheerleaders for debt don't have any answers and that is why no matter

what the subject matter of the thread is, you constantly divert the debate to gold. It's quite pathetic

And here is something from a news source that even you said you pay attention to :-

http://graphics.wsj.com/national-debts/#i[]=999

Edited May 25, 2013 by midas